Inter-modal Substitution (IMS) in Airline Collaborative Decision Making

Transcription

1 Inter-modal Substitution (IMS) in Airline Collaborative Decision Maing Yu Zhang UC Bereley NEXTOR Seminar Jan. 20, 2006 FAA, Washington D.C. 1

2 Road Map Introduction Delay In National Airspace System (NAS) Idea of Inter-modal Substitution (IMS) Objectives Inter-modal Traffic Assignment Model Jointly Optimization of Air and Surface Transportation Future Wor 2

3 Introduction Delay in NAS Adverse weather and other transient events Serious problem at hub airports Passenger misconnections Delay propagation Substantial number of short-haul flights 3

4 Introduction Procedure of CDM ATCSCC, Facilities and AOCs Evaluate Demand vs. Capacity AOC Smart Cancellation Problem Proposed GDP Advisory AOC Response (Cancellations) Is the GDP still required? Yes Issue GDP (RBS) AOC Response (Substitution and Cancellations) Compression End No Based on Metron 2004 Exit loop when program expires or is cancelled Slot Credit Substitution 4

5 Idea Substitute short-haul flights with surface transport when capacity temporarily drops at hub airports Inter-modal Substitution (IMS) 5

6 Objectives Access the potential benefits of implementing this inter-modal substitution (IMS) system. Develop methodology for maing optimal inter-modal substitution and flight cancellation decision. Explore the compatibility into Collaborative Decision Maing (CDM) 6

7 Inter-modal Traffic Assignment Model Networ Bottlenec: hub airport with capacity constraints 7

8 Problem Definition In the case of transient capacity drop, choose appropriate transportation modes in order to minimize (maximize) airline s objective Inter-modal Traffic Assignment Model 8

9 lt,lt Continuous Delay Approximation Cumulative Number of Flights { Ξ < } f Φ f t x f = D D CITI w = max 0, + TI t CV b t l T I a D D CITI w = t lmin, w t, + TI t CI CV Time of day Inter-modal Traffic Assignment Model 9

10 Constraints C I C V T I t S. t. w w x { Ξ < } f Φ D = min C t D = max 0, f t Reduced capacity Full capacity f I = D CIT C D, Length of reduced capacity th discrete time period V CIT C I V + T I I + T t D x f I t t t > T I T Cumulative number of flights at time period Decision Variables, equal to 1 if flight f is not cancelled, 0 otherwise I Inter-modal Traffic Assignment Model 10

11 Objective Function Minimize x f a t f b t f w pax f β δ f Φ [ + ] a b x t β 1 x ) t f f K ( f f paxf + δ w = 0 f { f Ξ [ t, t ]} f ( 1 ) Decision Variables, equal to 1 if flight f is not cancelled, 0 otherwise Flying time for flight f Surface transportation time for flight f Queuing delay for discrete time period Passenger number on flight f Weight of surface transportation time Weight of delay time pax f Inter-modal Traffic Assignment Model 11

12 Data Numerical Example 40 flights in 3 hours Region: 110 miles to 2000 miles Dropped capacity: 10 flights per hour Regular capacity: 30 flights per hour Duration of capacity dropping: 1.5 hours Solution Methods AMPL: Branch and Bound C: Enumeration Inter-modal Traffic Assignment Model 12

13 Numerical Example Results Scheduled Flight time Passenger Time Without IMS With IMS Flight Time Delay Surface Transport Time 5 Total Benefit Cumulative Number of Arrivals Original Schedule Adjusted Schedule 761 Without IMS Time of day (Hour) -375 (pax.hr) With IMS Inter-modal Traffic Assignment Model 13

14 Alternative Objective Functions Varied weights or monetary coefficients for different time: flying time, surface transportation time, and delay time Including estimated passenger delay time with reassignment Considering airlines operating costs Etc. Inter-modal Traffic Assignment Model 14

15 Jointly Optimization of Air and Surface Transportation Space B 1 f1 B 2 f3 f2 Time Spoe A Hub Airport Spoe B 15

16 Source node O Transporting passengers i=1 u 1 Leg1 j=1 v 1 Waiting at the terminal Leg2 Dead-heading to another airport or central airport Time A B C Hub Airport C Sin node M B A 16

17 Questions Answered How many flights will be cancelled, and which one should be cancelled? How many vehicles (charter buses) are needed? How to dispatch those vehicles? What is the passenger delay? What is the flight delay? What is the other objective that airlines interested in? 17

18 Smart Cancellation Complete Version Capacity Forecast Individual Flight Cancellation Cost Networ Cancellation Cost Bus Transportation Time Estimation Delay Cost Estimation Flight and Passenger Bus Operational Cost Smart Cancellation Ban Structure Arrival and Departure Aircraft Balance Passenger Itinerary Recovery Terminal Facility Availability 18

19 Future Wor Extension of Inter-modal Traffic Assignment Model Formulation and numerical examples of Joint optimization of air and surface transportation Capacity Uncertainty Integration of Different Modes Cooperation among Airlines 19

20 Than you! 20