Space Transportation Systems. Demand / Market Analysis

Transcription

1 Space Transportation Systems Demand / Market Analysis Status of Discussion DGLR-Fachausschuss S4.1 Ch.Gritzner, M.Obersteiner 1

2 Space Launch Market - Global History of Launches Nuumber of Launches Successful Launches Launch Failures 2

3 Space Launch Market Global Launches 2000 to Launch Rates 2000 to 2006 Government Non-GTO Commercial Non-GTO Government GEO/GTO Commercial GEO/GTO Launches Year This analysis shows the distribution of launches in the Years 2000 to 2006 and their distribution with respect to insertion orbit and governmental/commercial launches, independent of payload type. Qualifying criterion is whether the launch contract has been acquired on a commercial, competitive basis or not. 3

4 GEO/GTO-Satellites Launch Forecasts 28 Latest forecasts of commercial / accessible GTO-satellites Satellites COM STAC 05/06 ARIANESPACE 03/06 ESA 02/07 Database DGLR / DLR Year The forecasts differ in their respective scopes. COMSTAC forecasts are only concerned with the prediction of commercial GTO- Satellites whereas the forecasts of Arianespace and ESA try to predict the Arianespace accessible Payloads, commercial as well as European civil and governmental satellites. The market segments of Euroconsult predictions remains unknown. 4

5 GEO/GTO-Satellites Mass Evolution 8000 Weight of GTO-Satellites (commercial and governmental) Launch mass in kg Year Source: Database DLR RD-RL 5

6 European Institutional Launch Market The European Institutional Launch Market is: mainly based on a well established scientific programme, significantly smaller than the US and Russian markets. Major deficits result from: No own manned flight capability, i.e. lack of infrastructure and vehicles, Limited space defence activities with first steps of harmonisation and concentration of national programmes. The coordination of political orientation of European space activities via EC is initiated (Space Councils), but a comprehensive «Space Plan» is still in evolution, A «buy European act» for space launch service has been initiated in the ESA C-Min 2005, but is still weak in application. 6

7 European Institutional Launch Demand => ~10 Payloads/year (with major variation of mass & orbit) ESA Galileo/GSTB V2B (ESA/EU) SMOS/Proba 2 Goce ATV 1 (J. Verne) Herschel Planck ADM-Aeolus LISA Pathfinder SWARM Galileo IOV1 (ESA/EU) Galileo IOV2 Cryosat2 ATV 2 Galileo 1 Galileo 2 (ESA/EU) MSG 3 Sentinel-1 IXV SGEO ATV 3 Sentinel 1A Metop 2 MSG 4 Galileo 3 Galileo 4 Galileo 5 Galileo 6 CNES/ DGA Helios 2B (DGA) MEGA-Tropiques Pleiades1 (DGA) Syracuse 3C Pleiades2 (DGA) DLR/ BWB SAR-Lupe 2 SAR-Lupe 3 RapidEye TerraSarX SAR-Lupe 4 SAR-Lupe 5 SatcomBW1 SatcomBW 2 TanDEM-X EnMAP ASI/ SITAB CosmoSkyMed1 Cosmo SkyMed 2 CosmoSkyMed 3 CosmoSkyMed 4 Sicral1B (SITAB) Sicral 2 (SITAB) BNSC/ Paradigm Skynet 5A Skynet 5B Skynet 5C INTA/ Hisdesat Seosat Total P/Ls =52/5yrs 7

8 Mass of single Payload [kg] DGLR / CEAS European Air and Space Conference 2007 European Institutional Launch Demand Ariane 5 ES/ECA performance limit SOYUZ at CSG performance limit VEGA performance limit 0 ATV M 5000 Small LEO/Polar/SSO 275 M SSO Big Sats 80 M Ariane 5 ES Big GTO 245 M Small GTO 125 M Size of circles indicates launch business volume Civil 960 M Defense 420 M Total : 1380 M or ~275 M per year Ariane 5 ECA Galileo 165 M LEO/ISS LEO/Polar/SSO GTO MEO circular Herschel & Planck 115 M Interplanetary 8

9 Yearly Space Launch Market Accessible for European Launchers 1.5 B Achieved market share 1 ~0,8 Global Commercial Market (mainly telecom sats to GTO/GEO) 0,5 ~0,3 0 European Institutional Market Defense Civilian Not cost efficient Not cost efficient Not cost efficient/ restricted Not cost efficient Ariane 5 Soyuz/ Rockot, Cosmos Total for Starsem (future: Vega) Europ. LV 9

10 Ariane 5 Economical Aspects The Global Commercial Market: Main competitors (for the last 10 years): Russian launchers joined with US marketing competence, Market price (today launches): 30-40% below Ariane-5 costs (~ $/ rate). US Institutional Market: DoD together with NASA are assuring ULA (Atlas & Delta) operation, Secured by buy American act. European Strategy: Guaranteed Access to Space via governmental fixed cost funding: EGAS, Make use of the commercial launches to assure stable operation and affordable cost for the (limited) European institutional launch demand. 10

11 Demand / Market - Summary of Results and Facts GTO market is mainly commercial and is expected at sats/year. Arianespace has the potential to get 40-60% of this, i.e. some 4-7 launches (Ar5 & Soyuz). Predictions for the increase rate of GTO sats mass show uncertainties. The return of Chinese launchers in the commercial market is the major uncertainty for the launch price evolution. The European institutional market will ask for launches 1-2 Ariane Soyuz (launched from CSG starting 2009) 2-3 Vega class (Vega, Rockot, Cosmos, Dnepr, PSLV). Launch demand for European launcher portfolio: ~800 M (500M comm., 300M inst.) Ariane 5 is most important for the European institutional launch demand. Europe has no yet developped a common (political) vision for Space Exploration. Mid- to long-term launch demand including potential increase of launcher performance demand and entry into manned flight capability is not yet defined. Suborbital space tourism market is under preparation by commercial ventures New space applications (orbital tourism, power from space, ) are still blocked by the vicious circle of high transportation cost and low flight rates. 11

12 Conclusions for the European Launcher Portfolio Ariane 5 GTO dual launch capability will remain a key for success. A launch rate of 6 to 7 per year is a realistic goal. Issues for further evolution and competitivity are Increase of launch performance : ~12 t GTO, available ~2015 Upper stage re-ignition capability $/ exchange rate Soyuz (at CSG) Will be used complementary to Ariane 5 Low launch rate at CSG (risk for reliability?) Vega Institutional launch demand 2-3/year, but with competition Commercial competitivity will ask for institutional support (above $/ exchange rate) NGL/FLPP Europe needs a (politically driven) vision and a continously funded program 12