ICET Matching Regime Analysis with Consolidated Local Areas Final Report

Transcription

1 ICET Matching Regime Analysis with Consolidated Local Areas Final Report November 3, Lakewood Drive Vancouver, BC V5N 4T8 P: E: W: Prepared for: Island Coastal Economic Trust I

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION DEFINING CONSOLIDATED LOCAL AREAS ANALYSIS Growth Reliance on Resource Industries MATCHING LEVELS BY COMMUNITY Updated Matching Levels Explanation of Changes APPENDIX: GRAPHS AND MAPS II

3 1. INTRODUCTION This report is an update of the Summary of Community Economic Performance report completed by Vann Struth Consulting Group for Island Coastal Economic Trust (ICET) in June Various drafts of the report have been presented to the ICET Board in May and June 2009, to the Northern Regional Advisory Committee (RAC) in July 2009, and to the Southern RAC in September Comments received at those meetings have been taken into account in this final report. The purpose of the study is to determine the appropriate ratio of matching funds required from applicants from each municipality, Regional District Electoral Area and group of First Nations Reserves in the ICET region. The ICET Application Guidelines established three potential levels of matching funding: 1:1, meaning that every dollar of ICET funding must be matched by at least one dollar from other sources. This is intended for smaller, remote and resource dependent communities. 1:2, meaning that every dollar of ICET funding must be matched by at least two dollars from other sources. This is intended for rural and smaller urban communities that are experiencing growth and relative economic prosperity. 1:3, meaning that every dollar of ICET funding must be matched by at least three dollars from other sources. This is intended for larger, urban communities. UPDATES FOR THIS REPORT 1. The most significant change in this report is basing the evaluation on Consolidated Local Areas rather than individual municipalities and Electoral Areas. This new approach is preferred because local economies function with little regard for local political boundaries workers, businesses and consumers regularly travel and conduct their affairs across multiple neighbouring municipalities or rural areas (and First Nations reserves, in many cases). Unlike the original report, which separately evaluated each political unit, this report evaluates the economic condition of the consolidated local area. The methodology for this approach is explained in Section Data is updated wherever possible, partly to make use of statistics that were not available for the original report and partly in response to feedback from the Board and RACs. The original approach was to evaluate communities on three dimensions: (1) growth, (ii) reliance on resource industries, and (iii) remoteness. It turned out that the remoteness variable added very little to the analysis (because the most remote communities were also typically the slowest growing and the most resource reliant). There was also considerable disagreement that using automobile travel time from Vancouver was the best measure of remoteness. Remoteness has been removed from the updated analysis in this report. 3. The availability of timely, community specific data is always a challenge in these types of studies. In general, there is significantly more data available for municipalities than for Electoral Areas and Reserves, 1

4 so the change in this report to the use of consolidated local areas requires a streamlined set of measurements that were available for most, if not all, jurisdictions. These are explained in Section 3. GEOGRAPHIC ABBREVIATIONS Note that when space is limited the names of the Regional Districts in the ICET region, and the Sechelt Indian Government District, are abbreviated: ACRD Alberni Clayoquot Regional District CmxVRD Comox Valley Regional District CowVRD Cowichan Valley Regional District PRRD Powell River Regional District RDMW Regional District of Mount Waddington RDN Regional District of Nanaimo SCRD Sunshine Coast Regional District SRD Strathcona Regional District Sechelt IGD Sechelt Indian Government District 2

5 2. DEFINING CONSOLIDATED LOCAL AREAS The Consolidated Local Areas in the ICET region were determined using the same principles used by Statistics Canada for defining Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and Census Agglomerations (CAs). CMAs and CAs are groups of municipalities clustered around an urban core. CMAs require an urban core of at least 100,000 people while CAs have an urban core of at least 10,000 people. CMAs and CAs are defined mainly by commuting patterns. If a sufficient percentage of residents of the outlying areas commute into the urban core, the outlying area is counted as part of the CMA/CA. There are only four CMAs in BC (Vancouver, Victoria, Abbotsford, Kelowna) while there are seven CAs in the ICET region (Duncan, Port Alberni, Nanaimo, Parksville, Courtenay, Campbell River and Powell River). An adapted version of these same principles was used to establish Consolidated Local Areas for this report according to the following process: 1. The core community in each local area is based on either the pre existing Census Agglomerations identified above (Duncan, Port Alberni, Nanaimo, Parksville, Courtenay, Campbell River, Powell River) or municipalities where a large share of employed residents work in the home community (e.g., Sechelt is a core community because the majority of employed Sechelt residents work in Sechelt rather than commuting elsewhere). 2. Other municipalities and Electoral Areas are added to the core communities if at least 20% of their employed residents commute to the core (e.g., Sunshine Coast Area B is not a core community, and is added to the Sechelt local area because more than 30% of working residents of Sunshine Coast B work in Sechelt). 3. If at least 20% of employed residents commute to more than one neighbouring area, the jurisdiction is added to the Consolidated Local Area that receives the higher percentage of commuters (e.g., in Sunshine Coast Area D, 25% of employed residents work in the Gibsons Area and 20% in the Sechelt Area for the purposes of this analysis, it is therefore combined with the Gibsons Area). 4. If there is no neighbouring area where 20% of employed residents commute to, the jurisdiction is evaluated on its own (e.g., in Sunshine Coast Area A, the largest destination for commuters is the Sechelt Area at 12%, which is below the 20% threshold and therefore Area A is evaluated on its own). 5. First Nations Reserves, due to limitations in the available data, are consolidated by Regional District. This is the same approach used in the 2007 report and in earlier drafts of this report. 6. A special case was made for several Electoral Areas in the south of the Cowichan Valley Regional District that have more commuters going to the Victoria CMA than to the Duncan area. Rather than involve an area outside ICET s boundaries, these Electoral Areas were added to the Duncan Area. 3

6 CONSOLIDATED LOCAL AREAS Table 1 shows the components of each Consolidated Local Area. The column on the right shows the top destination(s) for commuters from each jurisdiction, unless that jurisdiction is already part of an official Census Agglomeration. For example, the municipalities of Courtenay, Comox and Cumberland, as well as Electoral Areas A and B of the Comox Valley Regional District, comprise the official Courtenay Census Agglomeration. Using the relaxed commuting rules identified above, Electoral Area C is added to this area for the purposes of this report. Electoral Area K (Denman and Hornby Islands), however, does not have enough commuters to warrant inclusion in the Comox Valley Area and is therefore evaluated on its own. Table 1. Defining Consolidated Local Areas Consolidated Local Area Components Alert Bay Alert Bay None* Top Destination(s) for Commuters as % of Employed Residents Campbell River Area Campbell River Part of Campbell River Census Agglomeration Sayward Strathcona D (Muchalat, Little Espinosa) Strathcona H (Bloedel) Comox Valley Area Comox Part of Courtenay Census Agglomeration Comox Valley A (Union Bay, Royston, Fanny Bay) Comox Valley B (Little River) Courtenay Cumberland Comox Valley C (Saratoga Miracle Beach) Cortes Island Strathcona I (Cortes Island) 9% SRD Area J Denman/Hornby Islands Comox Valley K (Denman Island, Hornby Island) 35% Comox Valley Area, 15% Campbell River Area 3% Comox Valley Area Duncan Area Duncan Part of Duncan Census Agglomeration North Cowichan Cowichan Valley D (Cowichan Bay, Cherry Point) Cowichan Valley E (Koksilah/Eagle Heights) Cowichan Valley A (Mill Bay) Cowichan Valley B (Shawnigan Lake) Cowichan Valley C (Cobble Hill, Arbutus Ridge) Cowichan Valley F (Honeymoon Bay/Mesachie Lake) Cowichan Valley G (Saltair) 30% Metro Victoria, 21% Duncan Area** 31% Metro Victoria, 31% Duncan Area ** 27% Duncan Area, 25% Victoria CMA 29% Duncan Area 27% Duncan Area, 11% Ladysmith 4

7 Consolidated Local Area Gabriola/Mudge Islands Components Cowichan Valley I (Youbou) Nanaimo B (Gabriola Island, Mudge Island) Top Destination(s) for Commuters as % of Employed Residents 32% Duncan Area, 10% Lake Cowichan 13% Nanaimo Area Gibsons Area Gibsons Core of Local Area Sunshine Coast D (Roberts Creek) Sunshine Coast E (area to west of Gibsons) Sunshine Coast F (Hopkins Landing) 25% Gibsons Area, 20% Sechelt Area 37% Gibsons Area, 12% Sechelt Area 22% Gibsons Area Gold River Gold River 3% Campbell River Area Ladysmith Ladysmith 24% Nanaimo Area, 18% Duncan Area (29% + home based workers stay in Ladysmith so it is evaluated independently) Lake Cowichan Lake Cowichan 40% Duncan Area (25% + home based workers stay in Lake Cowichan so it is evaluated independently)*** Lasqueti Island Powell River E (Lasqueti Island) 16% Powell River Area Mount Waddington Area A Mount Waddington Area B Mount Waddington Area D Mount Waddington A (Sointula, mainland part of RD) Mount Waddington B (Quatsino, Holberg) Mount Waddington D (Telegraph Cove) 9% Alert Bay None* 11% Port McNeill Nanaimo Area Lantzville Part of Nanaimo Census Agglomeration Parksville/Qualicum Area Nanaimo Nanaimo A (Cedar, Cassidy) Nanaimo C (Extension) Cowichan Valley H (North Oyster/Yellow Point, Diamond) Parksville Qualicum Beach Nanaimo G (French Creek, Dashwood, Englishman River) Nanaimo E (Nanoose Bay) Nanaimo F (Errington, Coombs, Hilliers) Nanaimo H (Dunsmuir, Deep Bay/Bowser) 38% Nanaimo Area Part of Parksville Census Agglomeration 26% Parksville/Qualicum Area, 21% Nanaimo Area 34% Parksville/Qualicum Area, 10% Nanaimo Area 29% Parksville/Qualicum Area Port Alberni Area Port Alberni Part of Port Alberni Census Agglomeration Alberni Clayoquot A (Bamfield) Alberni Clayoquot D (Sproat Lake) Alberni Clayoquot E (Beaver Creek) Alberni Clayoquot F (Cherry Creek) Alberni Clayoquot B (Beaufort) 59% Port Alberni Area Port Alice Port Alice 5% Port Hardy Port Hardy Port Hardy 2% Port Alice, 2% Port McNeill Area Port McNeill Area Mount Waddington C (Hyde Creek, Coal Harbour) 39% Port McNeill, 15% Port Hardy 5

8 Consolidated Local Area Components Port McNeill Top Destination(s) for Commuters as % of Employed Residents 4% Port Hardy, 2% RDMW D, 1% Port Alice Powell River Area Powell River Part of Powell River Census Agglomeration Powell River B (Myrtle Point, Barney's Bar) Powell River C (Black Point, Lang Bay, Pinetree) Powell River A (Lund) 28% Powell River Area Sechelt Area Sechelt Core of Local Area Sechelt Indian Government District (SCRD portions) Sunshine Coast B (Halfmoon Bay) Strathcona Area G Strathcona G (Esperanza) None* Strathcona Area J Sunshine Coast Area A Strathcona J (Mainland & Islands except Cortes Island) Sunshine Coast A (South Pender Harbour, Garden Bay) Tahsis Tahsis None 49% Sechelt Area 32% Sechelt Area 16% Campbell River Area 12% Sechelt Area Texada Island Powell River D (Texada Island) 8% Powell River Area Tofino Tofino 4% Ucluelet Area Ucluelet Area Alberni Clayoquot C (Long Beach) 30% Ucluelet Area, 14% Tofino Ucluelet Core of Local Area Zeballos Zeballos None *Statistics Canada reports commuting numbers only when there are at least 20 commuters moving from one jurisdiction to another. There are no external jurisdictions that employed as many as 20 residents of Alert Bay, Mount Waddington Area B, Strathcona Area G, Tahsis or Zeballos. **Areas A and B in the south of the Cowichan Valley Regional District send more commuters to the metro Victoria area (outside the ICET region) than to the Duncan Area. For the purposes of this study, they are included with the Duncan area. ***Lake Cowichan could be grouped with the Duncan Area, or on its own. It has the same matching level in either case. 6

9 3. ANALYSIS This report incorporates several data changes and updates relative to the original 2007 report. Some changes are based on the availability of newer and better data, while others were instituted due to the use of Consolidated Local Areas as the basic unit of analysis. The changes and updates include: The addition of employment data from 2001 and 2006 as a measure of growth. Even though the results are several years old, the Census is the only source of detailed employment data by community. It also takes Statistics Canada almost two years after the Census date to release employment data so it was not yet available when the original study was completed in mid Data on per capita building permit values has been updated to the most recent years available. In this study they are calculated over the period 2006 to Building permits are not available for all Electoral Areas, or for most of the municipalities in the Regional District of Mount Waddington. Growth in total assessed property values were used in the calculations of municipal growth in the original 2007 study. Assessment data has been removed from this study because it is not available for nonmunicipal areas and because the remaining variables provide an effective balance of growth in jobs, people and building development. The employment data used to calculate resource reliance is updated from the 2001 Census to the 2006 Census. As noted above, the 2006 Census results were not available in time for the 2007 report. After much discussion with the Regional District of Mount Waddington, Statistics Canada admitted an error in its initial calculation of the 2006 Census populations for the Village of Alert Bay, Mount Waddington Area A, and the Alert Bay Reserve. The correct population figures have been included in this report. Statistics Canada is not able to adjust any other Census variables, but the employment estimates for those areas have been manually adjusted in this report by the same percentage as the change in population. TIMELINESS OF THE DATA One of the concerns raised by the Board and RACs is the timeliness of the data used in this study. Much of the data is taken from the 2006 Census and therefore does not account for the significant deterioration in economic conditions through most of the region since that time. These concerns have been taken into consideration, but there are several very good reasons to use the somewhat dated Census information: 1. The Census is the only source of detailed population and employment data for individual municipalities and Electoral Areas. Selected data on unemployment is available on a more timely basis, but not to the level of the individual community. 7

10 2. Using Census data that is several years old is a better way to evaluate resource reliance than to use current data. The reason is that so many of the forest reliant jobs in the region have been lost since 2006 that communities like Campbell River and Powell River have a much lower percentage of resource based jobs in 2009 than they did in 2006, meaning they now appear less resource reliant. It is preferable to show the state of these communities prior to the recent job losses. 3. Recent unemployment data suggests that the all parts of the province, and all parts of the Vancouver Island/Coast region, have been hit by the provincial recession that began in late This means that the relative performance of different parts of the region has changed very little, so evaluations using 2006 data are still valid. Table 2 shows the percentage of working age adults (19 64) who were receiving either Employment Insurance (EI) or Basic Income Assistance (IA) in September 2008 (right before the recession) and March 2009 (in the midst of the recession). The final two columns illustrate the point made above with a few exceptions, the areas that experienced the largest increase in benefits rates in the first six months of the recession were the areas that already had the highest rates. The Lake Cowichan, Campbell River, Alberni, Vancouver Island North and Vancouver Island West areas were all in the upper half of benefits rates in September 2008 and each was in the upper half of the increase in benefits rates. (Nanaimo is the clear outlier its economic strength means its increase in benefits rates was the smallest in the region, but it has a large number of recipients who are attracted by the social services available in the region s largest city). Table 2. Population Age Receiving Employment Insurance (EI) 1 or Basic Income Assistance (IA) 2 Local Health Area Benefits Recipients as % of Age Ranks (Lowest ranked 1 st ) Sept 2008 Mar 2009 Change Sept 2009 Change Nanaimo Ladysmith Cowichan Sunshine Coast Qualicum Courtenay Powell River Lake Cowichan Campbell River Alberni Vancouver Island North Vancouver Island West Source: BC Stats, based on data from the Ministry of Employment and Income Assistance (for Income Assistance) and Human Resources and Social Development Canada (for Employment Insurance). 1 Employment insurance statistics include those receiving regular benefits, fishing benefits, work sharing, employment benefits and support measures. It does not include those receiving sickness, maternity or parental benefits. 2 Basic income assistance includes temporary benefits, but not long term benefits (e.g., disability benefits) or benefits for children or seniors. 8

11 3.1. GROWTH Growth is measured in this report using three factors: (1) employment growth from 2001 to 2006, (2) total building permit values per capita for the period from 2006 to 2008, and (3) population growth from 2001 to These factors were chosen because they are widely available for both municipalities and Electoral Areas, and because they represent different dimensions of growth: jobs, people and building development. EMPLOYMENT GROWTH There are two ways to look at employment by Place of Work (POW), which is where the jobs are physically located (regardless of where the workers live), and Place of Residence (POR), which is where the workers live (regardless of where the jobs are physically located). Both types of data are equally valid, depending on their intended purpose. For purposes of measuring growth, only POW jobs are considered. Earlier drafts of this report included both POW and POR data in the calculation of employment growth, but POR jobs were removed because they are closely linked to population growth and may reflect economic conditions in a neighbouring community (where residents may commute to work) more than the community being examined. Changes in Place of Work jobs are perhaps the best indicator of the changing economic conditions in a community. The jobs shown in Table 3 for each Local Area have a fixed location in that area, even though they may be held by people who live elsewhere. Table 3. Employment by Place of Work (POW), Consolidated Local Area Jobs within Area Boundaries* Growth Rate POW Employment Growth Index (BC = 100) Nanaimo Reserves % 1811 Cowichan Valley Reserves 1,005 1, % 1109 Comox Valley Reserves % 584 Gabriola/Mudge Islands 835 1, % 573 Powell River Reserves % 519 Strathcona Area G % 259 Sechelt Area 3,960 4, % 208 Nanaimo Area 33,485 39, % 199 Parksville/Qualicum Area 10,315 12, % 199 Ucluelet Area 920 1, % 178 Gibsons Area 3,970 4, % 176 Comox Valley Area 18,325 20, % 136 Tofino 1,210 1, % 106 Campbell River Area 13,785 14, % 70 9

12 Consolidated Local Area Jobs within Area Boundaries* Growth Rate POW Employment Growth Index (BC = 100) Gold River % 58 Strathcona Area J % 43 Duncan Area 19,530 20, % 36 Mount Waddington Area A ** 3.1% 36 Lake Cowichan % 32 Denman/Hornby Islands % 19 Port Alberni Area 9,370 9, % 19 Strathcona Reserves 1,085 1, % 0 Sunshine Coast Area A % 0 Sunshine Coast Reserves % 0 Powell River Area 6,565 6, % 30 Alert Bay ** 6.5% 75 Port McNeill Area 1,720 1, % 75 Zeballos % 130 Texada Island % 140 Lasqueti Island % 146 Ladysmith 2,430 2, % 159 Cortes Island % 195 Port Hardy 2,100 1, % 206 Mount Waddington Area B % 208 Mount Waddington Area D % 231 Tahsis % 329 Mount Waddington Reserves ** 30.8% 359 Alberni Clayoquot Reserves % 393 Port Alice % 475 British Columbia (all POW jobs) 1,660,090 1,802, % 100 * Note that this table does not include the approximately 13% of jobs that have no fixed Place of Work, such as construction jobs where the actual work location is continually changing. **2006 values for Alert Bay, Mount Waddington Area A and Mount Waddington Reserves are estimates based on the Statistics Canada revision of population figures in those areas. Source: Statistics Canada Census DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY The amount of new development activity is a good indicator of local economic strength. The value of building permits can vary significantly from year to year depending on the timing of large projects, so total building permit values over the last three complete years (2006 to 2008) have been collected for all municipalities and Electoral Areas that issue building permits. 10

13 In order to standardize the data across different sizes of communities, per capita values are calculated using 2006 Census populations. The following areas do not require building permits and therefore do not have data available: All First Nations Reserves The municipalities of Alert Bay, Port Alice, Tahsis and Zeballos. All Electoral Areas in the Powell River and Mount Waddington Regional Districts The following selected Electoral Areas scattered throughout the region: o Comox Valley Area K o Nanaimo Areas F and H o Strathcona Areas G, H, I and J Table 4. Per Capita Building Permit Values, Consolidated Local Area Total Building Permit Values ($000) 2006 Census Population (for areas with building permits only) Per Capita Building Permit Values ($) Building Permit Value Index (BC=100) Sunshine Coast Area A $72,323 2,624 $27, Ucluelet Area $37,931 1,888 $20, Sechelt Area $135,851 11,012 $12, Parksville/Qualicum Area $368,176 31,980 $11, Tofino $18,423 1,655 $11, Campbell River Area $322,175 34,897 $9, Gibsons Area $120,054 13,276 $9, Gabriola/Mudge Islands $34,604 4,050 $8, Comox Valley Area $479,718 56,383 $8, Nanaimo Area $772,428 93,878 $8, Ladysmith $57,381 7,538 $7, Duncan Area $376,495 60,578 $6, Port Alberni Area $111,073 25,058 $4, Powell River Area $51,036 12,957 $3, Lake Cowichan $10,575 2,948 $3, Port Hardy $13,467 3,822 $3, Port McNeill Area $3,035 2,623 $1, Gold River $1,449 1,362 $1, Alberni Clayoquot Reserves n/a n/a n/a n/a Alert Bay n/a n/a n/a n/a Comox Valley Reserves n/a n/a n/a n/a Cortes Island n/a n/a n/a n/a Cowichan Valley Reserves n/a n/a n/a n/a Denman/Hornby Islands n/a n/a n/a n/a Lasqueti Island n/a n/a n/a n/a Mount Waddington Area A n/a n/a n/a n/a Mount Waddington Area B n/a n/a n/a n/a 11

14 Consolidated Local Area Total Building Permit Values ($000) 2006 Census Population (for areas with building permits only) Per Capita Building Permit Values ($) Building Permit Value Index (BC=100) Mount Waddington Area D n/a n/a n/a n/a Mount Waddington Reserves n/a n/a n/a n/a Nanaimo Reserves n/a n/a n/a n/a Port Alice n/a n/a n/a n/a Powell River Reserves n/a n/a n/a n/a Strathcona Area G n/a n/a n/a n/a Strathcona Area J n/a n/a n/a n/a Strathcona Reserves n/a n/a n/a n/a Sunshine Coast Reserves n/a n/a n/a n/a Tahsis n/a n/a n/a n/a Texada Island n/a n/a n/a n/a Zeballos n/a n/a n/a n/a British Columbia Municipalities $34,663,378 3,599,212 $9, Sources: Statistics Canada (compiled by BC Stats), Cowichan Valley Regional District, Regional District of Nanaimo, Alberni Clayoquot Regional District, Comox Valley Regional District, Sunshine Coast Regional District POPULATION GROWTH The final growth indicator is population change from 2001 to Populations expand in response to economic opportunities, but also create economic opportunities. Parts of the ICET region are highly reliant on an influx of new residents, many of them retirees, who are seeking a better quality of life. These new residents generate employment growth through their demand for goods and services, irrespective of their employment role. Table 5. Population, Consolidated Local Area Population Growth Rate Population Growth Index (BC = 100) Cowichan Valley Reserves 2,731 3, % 598 Mount Waddington Area A 886 1,122* 26.6% 506 Alberni Clayoquot Reserves 1,729 2, % 367 Strathcona Reserves 1,401 1, % 289 Gabriola/Mudge Islands 3,522 4, % 285 Nanaimo Reserves % 282 Tofino 1,466 1, % 245 Strathcona Area G % 230 Parksville/Qualicum Area 37,759 42, % 220 Cortes Island 938 1, % 211 Ladysmith 6,811 7, %

15 Consolidated Local Area Population Growth Rate Population Growth Index (BC = 100) Sunshine Coast Area A 2,374 2, % 200 Denman/Hornby Islands 1,982 2, % 179 Sechelt Area 10,959 11, % 155 Gibsons Area 12,278 13, % 154 Nanaimo Area 87,201 93, % 145 Comox Valley Area 52,399 56, % 144 Comox Valley Reserves % 135 Duncan Area 57,444 60, % 104 Lake Cowichan 2,827 2, % 81 Campbell River Area 34,360 35, % 71 Powell River Reserves % 14 Gold River 1,359 1, % 4 Port Alberni Area 25,222 25, % 12 Powell River Area 17,556 17, % 13 Texada Island 1,129 1, % 37 Ucluelet Area 1,928 1, % 39 Lasqueti Island % 41 Strathcona Area J 2,548 2, % 57 Mount Waddington Reserves 1,722 1,621* 5.9% 111 Port McNeill Area 3,650 3, % 151 Mount Waddington Area B % 214 Zeballos % 297 Port Hardy 4,574 3, % 312 Sunshine Coast Reserves % 317 Alert Bay * 19.0% 362 Mount Waddington Area D % 459 Port Alice 1, % 514 Tahsis % 741 British Columbia 3,907,738 4,113, % 100 *2006 values for Alert Bay, Mount Waddington Area A and Mount Waddington Reserves have been officially revised by Statistics Canada to correct errors in the original Census release. Source: Statistics Canada Census 13

16 OVERALL GROWTH INDEX The overall measurement of growth is determined by averaging the three growth indicators shown above from Table 3 to Table 5 into an Overall Growth Index in Table 6. Table 6. Calculation of Overall Growth Index Consolidated Local Area POW Employment Growth Index Building Permit Value Index Population Growth Index OVERALL GROWTH INDEX Nanaimo Reserves 1811 n/a Cowichan Valley Reserves 1109 n/a Comox Valley Reserves 584 n/a Gabriola/Mudge Islands Mount Waddington Area A 36 n/a Powell River Reserves 519 n/a Strathcona Area G 259 n/a Parksville/Qualicum Area Sechelt Area Sunshine Coast Area A Tofino Strathcona Reserves 0 n/a Nanaimo Area Gibsons Area Comox Valley Area Ucluelet Area Denman/Hornby Islands 19 n/a Campbell River Area Duncan Area Lake Cowichan Ladysmith Gold River Port Alberni Area Cortes Island 195 n/a Powell River Area Strathcona Area J 43 n/a 57 7 Alberni Clayoquot Reserves 393 n/a Port McNeill Area Texada Island 140 n/a Lasqueti Island 146 n/a Sunshine Coast Reserves 0 n/a Port Hardy

17 Consolidated Local Area POW Employment Growth Index Building Permit Value Index Population Growth Index OVERALL GROWTH INDEX Mount Waddington Area B 208 n/a Zeballos 130 n/a Alert Bay 75 n/a Mount Waddington Reserves 359 n/a Mount Waddington Area D 231 n/a Port Alice 475 n/a Tahsis 329 n/a British Columbia RELIANCE ON RESOURCE INDUSTRIES Each area s reliance on resource industries is calculated based on the percentage of employment in primary industries (forestry, mining, fishing, agriculture) and manufacturing. Due to data limitations, all manufacturing employment is included even though not all of it is resource related the reason is that the available employment data for Electoral Areas does not show specific industries within the manufacturing sector. This does not materially affect the results. As discussed in the previous section, there are two ways to look at employment data by Place of Work and by Place of Residence. Both are important for assessing resource reliance and both are taken into consideration. Place of Work data shows where jobs are physically located, which is important for a community s property tax base. Place of Residence data is important for measuring the percentage of a community s labour income that is resource reliant. For example, a municipality may contain relatively few resource based jobs, but a significant percentage of its residents may work in a mill or mine or as logging contractors in the surrounding rural areas. In that sense the municipality s economy is still reliant on the resource sector. 15

18 RESOURCE EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF WORK Table 7. Resource based Employment by Place of Work (POW), 2006 Consolidated Local Area Total Jobs within Area Boundaries Resourcebased Jobs Share of Resourcebased Jobs POW Resource Employment Index (BC=100) Mount Waddington Area D % 542 Port Alice % 530 Strathcona Area G % 487 Mount Waddington Area B % 433 Comox Valley Reserves % 383 Texada Island % 337 Gold River % 289 Port McNeill Area 1, % 250 Strathcona Area J % 238 Powell River Reserves % 206 Strathcona Reserves 1, % 205 Cortes Island % 204 Port Alberni Area 9,520 2, % 193 Ucluelet Area 1, % 180 Campbell River Area 14,610 3, % 169 Gibsons Area 4, % 160 Mount Waddington Area A % 153 Duncan Area 20,140 3, % 152 Powell River Area 6,395 1, % 150 Tahsis % 137 Denman/Hornby Islands % 129 Tofino 1, % 125 Lake Cowichan % 121 Port Hardy 1, % 113 Ladysmith 2, % 104 Gabriola/Mudge Islands 1, % 98 Sunshine Coast Area A % 96 Nanaimo Reserves % 92 Mount Waddington Reserves % 85 Lasqueti Island % 73 16

19 Consolidated Local Area Total Jobs within Area Boundaries Resourcebased Jobs Share of Resourcebased Jobs POW Resource Employment Index (BC=100) Parksville/Qualicum Area 12,070 1, % 72 Cowichan Valley Reserves 1, % 68 Nanaimo Area 39,205 3, % 65 Sechelt Area 4, % 64 Zeballos % 64 Alberni Clayoquot Reserves % 63 Comox Valley Area 20,450 1, % 59 Alert Bay % 47 Sunshine Coast Reserves % 0 British Columbia (all POW jobs) 1,802, , % 100 Source: Statistics Canada Census RESOURCE EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE Table 8. Resource based Employment by Place of Residence (POR), 2006 Consolidated Local Area Total Jobs for Area Residents Resourcebased Jobs Share of Resourcebased Jobs POR Resource Employment Index (BC=100) Mount Waddington Area D % 447 Mount Waddington Area B % 413 Sunshine Coast Reserves % 394 Port Alice % 384 Nanaimo Reserves % 309 Texada Island % 300 Port McNeill Area 2, % 279 Gold River % 268 Tahsis % 263 Strathcona Area J 1, % 224 Powell River Reserves % 221 Mount Waddington Area A % 214 Zeballos % 197 Port Hardy 1, %

20 Consolidated Local Area Total Jobs for Area Residents Resourcebased Jobs Share of Resourcebased Jobs POR Resource Employment Index (BC=100) Alberni Clayoquot Reserves % 192 Port Alberni Area 11,115 2, % 192 Campbell River Area 17,180 3, % 181 Mount Waddington Reserves % 181 Strathcona Reserves % 170 Lasqueti Island % 166 Powell River Area 7,645 1, % 158 Cortes Island % 149 Ladysmith 3, % 139 Ucluelet Area 1, % 136 Lake Cowichan 1, % 135 Cowichan Valley Reserves % 134 Sunshine Coast Area A 1, % 128 Gibsons Area 6,805 1, % 122 Duncan Area 28,890 4, % 118 Denman/Hornby Islands % 103 Comox Valley Area 26,245 3, % 97 Gabriola/Mudge Islands 1, % 94 Sechelt Area 5, % 90 Tofino 1, % 87 Parksville/Qualicum Area 16,880 1, % 78 Nanaimo Area 45,195 4, % 74 Alert Bay % 73 Comox Valley Reserves % 53 Strathcona Area G % 0 British Columbia 2,092, , % 100 Source: Statistics Canada Census 18

21 OVERALL RESOURCE EMPLOYMENT INDEX The overall Resource Employment Index is a combination of the Place of Work and Place of Residence indices shown in the two previous tables, weighted by the number of jobs in each category. As discussed in the introduction to this section, Place of Work data is the best reflection of the non residential tax base, while Place of Residence data indicates how much community income is reliant on the resource sector. The weights are necessary because in some cases there are substantial differences between the number of employed residents (Place of Residence jobs) and the number of jobs physically located in the area (Place of Work jobs). Table 9. Overall Resource Employment Index, 2006 Consolidated Local Area POW Resource Employment Index Place of Work Jobs POR Resource Employment Index Place of Residence Jobs OVERALL RESOURCE EMPLOYMENT INDEX Mount Waddington Area D Port Alice Mount Waddington Area B Texada Island Strathcona Area G Sunshine Coast Reserves Gold River Port McNeill Area 250 1, , Strathcona Area J , Powell River Reserves Tahsis Strathcona Reserves 205 1, Port Alberni Area 193 9, , Mount Waddington Area A Campbell River Area , , Cortes Island Ucluelet Area 180 1, , Powell River Area 150 6, , Port Hardy 113 1, , Alberni Clayoquot Reserves Nanaimo Reserves Mount Waddington Reserves Gibsons Area 160 4, , Duncan Area , , Lake Cowichan , Lasqueti Island

22 Consolidated Local Area POW Resource Employment Index Place of Work Jobs POR Resource Employment Index Place of Residence Jobs OVERALL RESOURCE EMPLOYMENT INDEX Comox Valley Reserves Ladysmith 104 2, , Zeballos Denman/Hornby Islands Sunshine Coast Area A , Tofino 125 1, , Gabriola/Mudge Islands 98 1, , Cowichan Valley Reserves 68 1, Comox Valley Area 59 20, , Sechelt Area 64 4, , Parksville/Qualicum Area 72 12, , Nanaimo Area 65 39, , Alert Bay British Columbia 100 1,802, ,092, Note: The Overall Resource Employment Index is a weighted average of the POW Resource Employment Index and the POR Resource Employment Index, using Place of Work (POW) and Place of Residence (POR) jobs as the weights. Source: Statistics Canada Census 20

23 4. MATCHING LEVELS BY COMMUNITY The original 2007 version of this report established a set of guidelines for sorting municipalities and non municipal areas into one of ICET s three matching levels. The guidelines were based on the three main factors considered in the analysis: (1) growth, (ii) reliance on resource industries, and (iii) remoteness. The results of the analysis were shown graphically (see sample below). The vertical axis was based on the growth index, so communities that were higher were faster growing. The horizontal axis was based on the resource employment index, so communities furthest to the right had the greatest reliance on resource industries. Finally, the width of the bubbles was proportional to vehicle travel time from Vancouver, so communities with larger bubbles were more remote. The dashed grey lines represented the boundaries between the three matching levels, which are also indicated by the large red numbers. Figure 1: Graph for 2007 Matching Report Courtenay 300 Low resource employment, High growth 200 1:3 1:2 Tofino Note: Larger bubbles are more remote from Vancouver High resource employment, High growth Qualicum Beach Sechelt Ladysmith Comox Gibsons Campbell River Nanaimo Cumberland Resource Employment Index (BC=100) North Cowichan Parksville Duncan Lake Cowichan Ucluelet Powell River Port Alberni Gold River 0 1:1-100 Alert Bay Port McNeill Sayward Port Hardy Zeballos -200 ) 0 1 = C -300 (B x e d In th w -400 ro G Low resource employment, Low growth 1:1 matching 1:2 matching 1:3 matching Tahsis High resource employment, Low growth Port Alice -500 The same principles are used for the updated analysis. The vertical axis still represents the growth index and the horizontal axis still represents the resource employment index. There are two changes: 1. Remoteness is no longer a factor, so the communities are no longer represented by different sized bubbles. They are all shown as small diamonds instead. 21

24 2. The boundaries between matching levels (represented by the dotted green lines in Figure 2) have been relaxed slightly in recognition of the challenging economic conditions facing all communities in the region. Figure 2 reproduces the original matching graph with the new matching level boundaries shown as green dotted lines. Figure 2: Graph for 2007 Matching Report Update showing New Matching Level boundaries :3 Low resource employment, High growth 1:2 1:1 Note: Larger bubbles are more remote from Vancouver High resource employment, High growth 100 Resource Employment Index (BC=100) ) 0 1 = C (B -300 x e d In th w -400 ro G Low resource employment, Low growth :1 matching 1:2 matching 1:3 matching High resource employment, Low growth 4.1. UPDATED MATCHING LEVELS Table 10 shows the original matching level from the 2007 report and the recommended updated matching level arising from this report. The results are also shown graphically in the Appendix. Any community with a recommended change in its matching level is indicated in bold. There are several instances where the analysis suggests communities should be moved into a higher matching category (e.g., a 1:1 moves to a 1:2). The recommended policy of ICET staff for these cases, as discussed with the Board and RACs, is that changes as a result of this report should not put any community into a more challenging matching level. These areas are still shown in Table 10 with a strike through (e.g., 1:2 1:1 ). There will be further discussion of the recommended changes in Section

25 Table 10. Comparison of Original (2007) and Updated (2009) Matching Levels Consolidated Local Area Alberni Clayoquot RD Reserves Components Original (2007) Matching Level Updated (2009) Matching Level Alberni Clayoquot RD Reserves 1:2 1:1 Alert Bay Alert Bay 1:1 1:1 Campbell River Area Campbell River 1:2 1:1 Sayward 1:1 1:1 Strathcona D (Muchalat, Little Espinosa) 1:1 1:1 Strathcona H (Bloedel) 1:1 1:1 Comox Valley Area Comox 1:3 1:3 Comox Valley A (Union Bay, Royston, Fanny Bay) 1:2 1:3 1:2 Comox Valley B (Little River) 1:2 1:3 1:2 Comox Valley C (Saratoga Miracle Beach) 1:1 1:3 1:1 Courtenay 1:3 1:3 Cumberland 1:3 1:3 Comox Valley RD Reserves Comox Valley RD Reserves 1:1 1:3 1:1 Cortes Island Strathcona I (Cortes Island) 1:3 1:1 Cowichan Valley RD Reserves Denman/Hornby Islands Cowichan Valley RD Reserves 1:3 1:3 Comox Valley K (Denman Island, Hornby Island) 1:3 1:2 Duncan Area Cowichan Valley A (Mill Bay) 1:3 1:2 Gabriola/Mudge Islands Cowichan Valley B (Shawnigan Lake) 1:3 1:2 Cowichan Valley C (Cobble Hill, Arbutus Ridge) Cowichan Valley D (Cowichan Bay, Cherry Point) Cowichan Valley E (Koksilah/Eagle Heights) Cowichan Valley F (Honeymoon Bay/Mesachie Lake) 1:2 1:2 1:2 1:2 1:2 1:2 1:1 1:2 1:1 Cowichan Valley G (Saltair) 1:2 1:2 Cowichan Valley I (Youbou) 1:1 1:2 1:1 Duncan 1:3 1:2 North Cowichan 1:2 1:2 Nanaimo B (Gabriola Island, Mudge Island) 1:3 1:3 Gibsons Area Gibsons 1:3 1:3 23

26 Consolidated Local Area Components Original (2007) Matching Level Updated (2009) Matching Level Sunshine Coast D (Roberts Creek) 1:3 1:3 Sunshine Coast E (area to west of Gibsons) 1:3 1:3 Sunshine Coast F (Hopkins Landing) 1:3 1:3 Gold River Gold River 1:1 1:1 Ladysmith Ladysmith 1:3 1:2 Lake Cowichan Lake Cowichan 1:2 1:2 Lasqueti Island Powell River E (Lasqueti Island) 1:1 1:1 Mount Waddington Area A Mount Waddington Area B Mount Waddington Area D Mount Waddington RD Reserves Nanaimo Area Mount Waddington A (Sointula, mainland part of RD) Mount Waddington B (Quatsino, Holberg) Mount Waddington D (Telegraph Cove) 1:1 1:2 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 Mount Waddington RD Reserves 1:1 1:1 Cowichan Valley H (North Oyster/Yellow Point, Diamond) 1:2 1:3 1:2 Lantzville 1:2 1:3 1:2 Nanaimo 1:3 1:3 Nanaimo A (Cedar, Cassidy) 1:2 1:3 1:2 Nanaimo C (Extension) 1:3 1:3 Nanaimo RD Reserves Nanaimo RD Reserves 1:3 1:3 Parksville/Qualicum Area Nanaimo E (Nanoose Bay) 1:3 1:3 Nanaimo F (Errington, Coombs, Hilliers) Nanaimo G (French Creek, Dashwood, Englishman River) Nanaimo H (Dunsmuir, Deep Bay/Bowser) 1:3 1:3 1:3 1:3 1:3 1:3 Parksville 1:3 1:3 Qualicum Beach 1:3 1:3 Port Alberni Area Alberni Clayoquot A (Bamfield) 1:2 1:1 Alberni Clayoquot B (Beaufort) 1:1 1:1 Alberni Clayoquot D (Sproat Lake) 1:1 1:1 Alberni Clayoquot E (Beaver Creek) 1:1 1:1 Alberni Clayoquot F (Cherry Creek) 1:1 1:1 Port Alberni 1:1 1:1 Port Alice Port Alice 1:1 1:1 Port Hardy Port Hardy 1:1 1:1 24

27 Consolidated Local Area Port McNeill Area Components Mount Waddington C (Hyde Creek, Coal Harbour) Original (2007) Matching Level Updated (2009) Matching Level 1:1 1:1 Port McNeill 1:1 1:1 Powell River Area Powell River 1:1 1:1 Powell River A (Lund) 1:1 1:1 Powell River B (Myrtle Point, Barney's Bar) Powell River C (Black Point, Lang Bay, Pinetree) 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 Powell River RD Reserves Powell River RD Reserves 1:1 1:21:1 Sechelt Area Sechelt 1:3 1:3 Sechelt IGD (SCRD portions) 1:2 1:3 1:2 Sunshine Coast B (Halfmoon Bay) 1:3 1:3 Strathcona Area G Strathcona G (Esperanza) 1:1 1:2 1:1 Strathcona Area J Strathcona J (Mainland/Islands areas except Cortes Island) 1:1 1:1 Strathcona RD Reserves Strathcona RD Reserves 1:1 1:2 1:1 Sunshine Coast Area A Sunshine Coast RD Reserves Sunshine Coast A (South Pender Harbour, Garden Bay) 1:3 1:3 Sunshine Coast RD Reserves 1:1 1:1 Tahsis Tahsis 1:1 1:1 Texada Island Powell River D (Texada Island) 1:1 1:1 Tofino Tofino 1:3 1:3 Ucluelet Area Alberni Clayoquot C (Long Beach) 1:2 1:2 Ucluelet 1:2 1:2 Zeballos Zeballos 1:1 1: EXPLANATION OF CHANGES This section provides additional explanation for the recommended matching level changes shown in Table 10. Generally the changes arise from the use of newer and better data and/or measurable changes in economic performance, but in some cases further specific comments are warranted: Campbell River moves from 1:2 to 1:1. This change occurs partly because the inclusion of the rural areas surrounding Campbell River dampens its growth as most of those areas are highly resource reliant and are not experiencing growth. The Campbell River Area is very near the boundary between the 1:1 and 1:2 categories but is recommended to be placed in the 1:1 category partly due to the multiple closures of large employers in the area in the last several years (reflected in Table 2 on page 8, showing one of the 25

28 larger increases in Employment Insurance and Temporary Assistance benefits rates in the early part of the current recession). Cortes Island moves from 1:3 to 1:1. This is one of the larger changes and occurs because employment growth is added to the list of growth indicators. Like many places on the coast, Cortes Island experienced strong population growth from 2001 to 2006 (likely driven by the lifestyle attraction). Yet the island also had significant job losses, causing its overall growth index to fall, and it remains heavily reliant on resource industry employment. Duncan and Cowichan Valley Areas A and B move from 1:3 to 1:2. Part of the explanation for this change is the same as Campbell River by including a large rural area surrounding the core community, the Duncan Area incorporates rural areas that are more resource reliant and slower growing. Even when evaluated on its own in the 2007 report, Duncan was on the border between 1:2 and 1:3 so moving to a 1:2 is not a large change. Ladysmith moves from 1:3 to 1:2. The best explanation for the change in Ladysmith s status is the same as the explanation for Cortes Island given above. When only population growth is considered, Ladysmith appears to have strong growth as it attracts amenity migrants and people who may work in Nanaimo. But when employment growth is considered, Ladysmith looks considerably worse off as it lost more than 300 local jobs from 2001 to Various Electoral Area and First Nations changes. Many of the changes in the unincorporated Electoral Areas and First Nations are due to the inclusion of these areas in larger Consolidated Local Areas, so their evaluation is now based not just on their own data. This report also includes employment and building permit data that was not used in 2007 and may have also contributed to some of the changes. 26

29 APPENDIX: GRAPHS AND MAPS Graphs and maps start on the following page. 27

30 Matching Regime Analysis for Consolidated Local Areas CowVRD Low resource employment, 900 High growth Cowichan Valley Reserves High resource employment, High growth 1: : :1 Resource Reliance (BC = 100) 100 Duncan Area Lake Cowichan Ladysmith Low resource employment, Low growth 500 (BC = 100) Growth Index ( High resource employment, Low growth

31 Alberni 2 Cowichan Valley Regional District Alberni-Clayoquot F Alberni- Clayoquot A Legend Census Subdivision Type Cowichan Lake Regional District Electoral Areas Municipalities Reserves Designated Place Locality Highway Nanaimo C Cowichan Valley I Youbou Cowichan Lake Extension South Wellington Cassidy Cowichan Valley H Cowichan Valley G Oyster Bay 12 Diamond Cedar H Nanaimo B North Oyster/ Yellow Point Saltair E Chemainus 13 Ladysmith G G Chemainus Halalt 2 Lyacksun 3 Portier Pass 5 Squaw-hay - one 11 Tsussie 6 D North Cowichan Cowichan Valley G Kuper Island 7 Thetis Island Trust Area Ganges Wyah 3 Claoose 4 Malachan 11 Cowichan Valley F Gordon River Honeymoon Bay/ Mesachie Lake Lake Koksilah/ Cowichan Duncan Cowichan 1 Eagle Heights Cowichan Valley E Cowichan 1 Kil-pah-las 3 Theik 2 Cowichan Bay Cherry Point Cowichan Valley B Shawnigan Lake Cobble Hill C A Mill Bay Arbutus Ridge Malahat 11 Shawnigan Lake Prepared by BC STATS Source: 2001 Census Statistics Canada Kilometers Gordon River 2 Port Renfrew Pacheena 1 Capital H (Part 2) Sooke Lake Ce

32 1200 Matching Regime Analysis for Consolidated Local Areas RDN Low resource employment, High growth Nanaimo Reserves High resource employment, High growth 1: : Gabriola/Mudge Islands 1:1 Parksville/Qualicum Area Nanaimo Area Resource Reliance (BC = 100) Low resource employment, Low growth 600 (BC = 100) Growth Index ( High resource employment, Low growth

33 Comox- Strathcona Regional District Deep Bay/ Bowser Qualicum Bay Nanaimo H Qualicum Dunsmuir Dashwood Hilliers Qualicum Beach Nanaimo F G French Creek Coombs Errington Powell River E Parksville Englishman River North Nanaimo E Nanoose Bay Nanoose Legend Nanaimo Regional District Sechelt Census Subdivision Type Regional District Electoral Area Municipality Reserve Designated Place Locality Highway Nanaimo City Port Alberni Nahmint Nanaimo Town 1 Alberni- Clayoquot Regional District Nanaimo City Inset Gabriola Island Nanaimo C Lantzville D Nanaimo East Wellington Nanaimo Town 1 Extension South Wellington Cassidy A B Yellow Point Cedar Gabriola Island Trust Area Nanaimo C Nanaimo River-4,3,2 Nanaimo A Cowichan Regional District Kilometers Prepared by BC STATS Source: 2001 Census Statistics Canada