Fortune Strategy development of Low cost carrier on Russian market
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1 Fortune Strategy development of Low cost carrier on Russian market
2 % 91% : Fortune
3 CAGR 7% 6% :, Fortune
4 1 100% Max. 49% : team analysis, open sources Fortune
5 Moscow Russia % % Domodedovo Sheremetyevo Vnukovo Ramenskoye Yermolino : case data, team analysis, expert.ru Fortune
6 : Fortune , Factor Distance ( < 6000 km) Pass. traffic (target occupancy rate) Profit Market saturation 5000,
7 1 Model Range, km Capacity Max. takeoff weight CASM, Cents$ Fuel consumption, l/pass/100km Exists in Transavia Price, M$ Airbus A ,1,95 85,8 Airbus A ,5,61 93,9 Boeing Boeing ,71,68 * 78,3 93,3 First year investments, M$ Annual payment, M$ Fleet upgrade flexibility Additional limitations 1. Ownership. Operational leasing 3. Financial leasing 93,3 9,3 9, Since May 015 it will be restricted to include aircraft registered abroad into Air Operator Certificate : case data, open sources, tem analysis Fortune
8 % 0% 15% 15% 54% % 70% 0 56% Sales costs, RUR/pass -8% 319, Offline 56,5 Online :, Fortune
9 : ideaworkscompany.com, Fortune Ancillary revenue share, % Ancillary revenue sources, %
10 : Fortune % 75% 16% ,45 4 5,5 6,55 5,5 6 0 Projected Transavia Aeroflot
11 Launch Operations Sales organiz. Fortune Actions /18 19/1 /5 Investments Negotiation with strat. partner n/a Negotiation with hub operator n/a Registration / certificate n/a Airports negotiation n/a Aircraft leasing prepayment 3,4 mln / 3 jets Staff hiring and training Marketing activities 1,1-1,5 mln/year IT infrastruct. setup and support / year Domestic flights Maintenance, Repair IF airports negotiation International flights Website sales Office sales Metasearch GDS and Mobile App sales
12 Probability of Occurrence Fortune Risks Emergence of new competitors Ways of mitigation Occupation of unique routes. 3 4 Development of High-speed railroads Wellness decrease Delay in law passing (3 aircraft for reg. flyer) Occupation of unique routes Price war, first comer. Focus on internal market Route optimization Operation as air charter Delay in strategy realization by the partn. Jet Fuel price fluctuation Hub creation in Vnukovo or Yermolino Risk hedging 7 7 Significant decrease in occupancy rate Route optimization Adjustment of price policy Impact of Risk
13 Fortune Attachments
14 Attachment 1 Attachment Attachment 3 Attachment 4 Attachment 5 Attachment 6 Attachment 7 Fortune All six destinations are served on daily basis is order to meet the demand and occupancy rate targets 6:00 10:00 10:00 14:00 14:00 18:00 Plane 1 Moscow Krasnoyarsk Moscow Plane Moscow Omsk Moscow Chelyabinsk Moscow Plane 3 Moscow Perm Moscow Anapa Moscow 6:00 8:00 10:00 1:00 14:00 16:00 18:00
15 Attachment 1 Attachment Attachment 3 Attachment 4 Attachment 5 Attachment 6 Attachment 7 Low-cost carrier project is realistic until 05 due to cost-cutting in four main categories 1 Priority cost elements that can be decreased: Operating costs, % Online sales development will allow LLC to cut sales costs by 8% Leasing of modern homogeneous fleet will allow LLC to cut leasing and maintenance costs by 45% and 56% respectively 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 0% 10% 0% 3 % 3% 4% 10% 14% 17% 0% 30% Кейтеринг Catering Админ. Admin. расходы costs Экипаж Crew Организация Sales продаж Лизинг Leasing и + амортизация depreciation ТО Maintenance и ремонт Аэропортовое Airport обслуж. Топливо Fuel 61% Sales costs, RUR/pass 319, Offline -8% Airport service costs can be decreased by 30% by the year 00 due to: 56,5 Online Costs for B , $/flight time Leasing Maintenance -45% -56% Avg. airport costs, RUR./flight * Infrastructure development -0% Russia Ост. AVG РФ Москва Moscow Usage of low-cost airports in Moscow since 016 Moscow Москва -35% Раменское, Low-cost Ермолино airport 3. Usage of low-cost airports abroad Relative airport costs per flight 100% 80% 60% -30% Fortune
16 Attachment 1 Attachment Attachment 3 Attachment 4 Attachment 5 Attachment 6 Attachment 7 Profit is the main factor of deciding on the route map 1 Profitability of the destinations depends on the traffic, current average level of prices and costs Everything in RUR/Flight (Passengers Price + Additional revenue) (Airport costs + Fuel + Staff + Leasing + Sales) = Profit Novosibirsk St. P Direction Kazan Total revenue Airport expenditures 13% Fuel Sales Staff Leasing + Amortisation St. Petersburg 377,59 14, ,13 9,077 16,08 1, ,56-34,954 Krasnodar 731, ,339 3,886 9,077 16,08 1, ,108 5,068 Sochi Omsk 639,001 14,336 81,8 9,077 16,08 1, ,588-30,749 Yekaterinburg 435, ,64 91,544 9,077 16,08 1,696 17,196-91,34 Yekaterinburg Novosibirsk 871, , ,784 9,077 16,08 1,696 51,517-64,77 Rostov-on-Don Krasnodar 551,865 10, ,533 9,077 16,08 1, ,486-9,090 Mineralnye Vody 68, ,718 63,50 9,077 16,08 1, ,51-11,465 Sochi Samara 551,865 10,39 169,638 9,077 16,08 1, ,349-5,093 Ufa 435, ,011 19,430 9,077 16,08 1, ,473-54,715 Krasnoyarsk 1,43,30 16, ,651 9,077 16,08 1,696 76,35 66,533 Kazan 580, , ,431 9,077 16,08 1,696 10,839 16,845 Kaliningrad 64, ,774 1,664 9,077 16,08 1, ,97-1,097 Chelyabinsk 813,75 146,790 86,669 9,077 16,08 1, ,378 16,95 Perm 84,30 109,65 33,984 9,077 16,08 1, ,315 59,986 Irkutsk 1,379,66 13, ,366 9,077 16,08 1, ,905-1,057 Omsk 1,13, , ,949 9,077 16,08 1,696 4,5 47,013 Tyumen 464,78 148,043 34,918 9,077 16,08 1, ,69-107,548 Volgograd 464,78 11, ,103 9,077 16,08 1,696 17,50-5,818 Anapa 871, ,93 54,18 9,077 16,08 1, ,07 58,643 Surgut 943, ,53 466,38 9,077 16,08 1,696 40,169-8,456 Other 17% 30% % 9% 0% 30% Fortune Profit 17
17 Attachment 1 Attachment Attachment 3 Attachment 4 Attachment 5 Attachment 6 Attachment 7 Source: case data, team analysis, open sources Fortune Major assumptions used in calculating profit model 3 Other costs calculations LLC/Legacy price ratio 80% Additional revenue 13% Occupancy rate 85% RUR/EUR exchange rate 65 WACC 7.5% Max flight hours per crew, h/month 100 Max flight hour per aircraft, h/day 1 Staff costs calculations Fuel cost = Fuel consumption [t/km] Distance Price [RUR/t] Airport cost = MTW AP(1,) per MTW + Pass AP(1,) per pass Sales = 56 RUR/passenger, in case of 100% online sales Other cost account for 30% of total cost All fixed costs are allocated per flight Total flight hours per month 300 Required numbers or crew 3 Captain wage, RUR/month 500,000 Second pilot wage, RUR/month 300,000 Flight attendant wage, RUR/month 60,000 Number of flight attendants 3 Total crew wage, RUR/month,940,000 Taxes and benefits, RUR/month 1,470,000 Total crew expenditure, RUR/month 4,410,000
18 Source: team analysis, open sources Fortune Attachment 1 Attachment Attachment 3 Attachment 4 Attachment 5 Attachment 6 Attachment 7 Organizational structure of the new LCC should be designed to leverage competitive advantages of parent company 1 IT, Operations and Procurement should be centralized in Transavia CV to maintain low cost level and share knowhow Transavia CV CEO Not exclusive COO IT development Transavia Rus CEO Public relations HR Procurement Engineering and maintenance IT implementation Operations Officer External relations Legal Finance and planning Marketing and sales Management control Functional control
19 Attachment 1 Attachment Attachment 3 Attachment 4 Attachment 5 Attachment 6 Attachment 7 Source: case data, open sources Fortune Route Paris-Aurillac is operated by Air France s branch Hop! and generates about 30% of average operational profit per flight within the company however during previous 6 years the traffic has increased by 30% while the number of flights remained the same, that suggests operational profitability increase of the route. +5% -71% Industrial average Paris- Aurillac Moreover, the fleet is based on ATR-4 500, which does not comply with selected strategy of LCC development in Russia ATR B Capacity, people Range, km Cancellation of Paris-Aurillac is pointless due to increased operational profit of the route for Hop! (Air-France KLM) and incompliance of the fleet, operating on the route and projected for new Russian low-cost carrier. CASM, U.S. cents 10 7
20 Attachment 1 Attachment Attachment 3 Attachment 4 Attachment 5 Attachment 6 Attachment 7 Source: open sources Fortune Breach between target audience of Nice and clients of low-cost carriers Relatively low traffic and its lowering dynamics There is a potential for growth and market penetration after 018
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