Russia/Central Asia Airline Capacity Winter 2013/14 Boeing Commercial Airplanes

Transcription

1 Russia/Central Asia Airline Capacity Winter 2013/14 Boeing Commercial Airplanes Istanbul Technical University Air Transportation Management M.Sc. Program BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. Network, Fleet and Schedule Strategic Planning Module 21 : 14 March 2014

2 World Regional Definitions

3 C.I.S. Region Capacity Report Summary December 2013 vs. December 2012 Significant growth in CIS ASK capacity since 2004, averaging just below 10% annually Continued robust growth in December 2013 vs. previous year: ASKs +9%, 1.6% shorter average stage length Seats +12.2% and departures +10.9%, causing average seats/departure to grow 1.1% Top 15 carriers by ASK led by Aeroflot, S7 Airlines, Transaero, UTAir, Air Astana, Ukraine Int l, and included 3 foreign airlines, Turkish, Lufthansa, and Flydubai Moscow s 3 airports were the among the four largest, with Vnukovo (VVO) adding the most seats; St. Petersburg (LED) was the 4 th largest airport in the CIS region Largest routes by seats were Moscow-St. Petersburg domestically and Moscow-Paris internationally Boeing s share of seats to/from/within the CIS dropped 4% to 40% share of seats, Airbus increased its share of seats 1% to 39% due to a large number of A320 family deliveries increasing the amount of Airbus seats in the CIS market

4 CIS Winter Capacity Trends All flights to/from/within the CIS Kyrgyzstan 1.8% Azerbaijan 2.0% Uzbekistan 2.9% Others* 6.8% BELARUS UKRAINE MOLDOVA RUSSIAN FEDERATION KAZAKHSTAN GEORGIA UZBEKISTAN KYRGYZSTAN AZERBAIJAN ARMENIA TURKMENISTAN TAJIKISTAN Kazakhstan 6.5% Ukraine 7.8% CIS country share of December 2014 seats to/from/within the CIS Russian Federation 72.2% * Tajikistan 1.4%, Armenia 1.2%, Georgia 1.2%, Belarus 1.1%, Moldova 0.7%, Mongolia 0.6%, Turkmenistan 0.6% Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan account for just under 90% of all traffic to/from/within the CIS region

5 CIS Capacity Trends All flights to/from/within the CIS 25.0 Longer term capacity trend (by monthly ASKs) Monthly ASKs (billions) ASK CAGR 9.6% - Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 ASK growth has averaged nearly 10% growth since 2004 Increasingly strong summer seasonal peaks

6 CIS Winter Capacity Trends All flights to/from/within the CIS Year-over-Year Capacity Trends Dec 2013 YoY % Growth 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 10.9% 12.2% 9.0% -1.6% 1.1% Departures Seats ASKs Average Stage Seats per Length Departure 90, m 26.4b 1,783km 136 Departures, Seats, and ASK growth outpacing world averages

7 CIS Winter Capacity Trends All flights to/from/within the CIS Year-over-Year Capacity Trends Dec 2013 YoY % Growth 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 10.9% 5.6% 12.2% 9.0% 7.4% 7.6% -1.6% 0.2% Departures Seats ASKs Average Stage Length CIS World 1.1% 1.7% Seats per Departure Departures, Seats, and ASK growth outpacing world averages

8 Capacity Changes Among Top Carriers CIS domiciled carriers Airline Capacity Growth by monthly ASKs (millions) Aeroflot Transaero S7 UTAir Air Astana Uzbekistan Airways Ural Airlines Yakutia Ukraine International Azerbaijan Hava Yollary Yamal Airlines Turkmenistan Airlines VIM Airlines Taimyr Belavia Wizz Air Ukraine LLC -5% -2% -2% -10% -17% 98% 3% 15% 1% 20% 88% 19% 27% 3% 9% 11% 2012 ASKs M 2013 Change M (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Aeroflot continues to expand on its dominant position as the largest carrier of CIS traffic

9 Largest Capacity Changes - Airlines All flights to/from/within CIS Largest changes in capacity (by monthly seats) Monthly Seats 500, , , , ,000 - (100,000) (200,000) (300,000) Aeroflot Ukraine Intl Transaero Air Astana Ural Airlines S7 Flydubai Wizz Air Ukraine LLC Wizz Air East Air Tajik Air Angara Airlines Uzbekistan Airways Turkmenistan Airlines Wind Rose Yamal Airlines Ceased Operations Kuban Airlines Redwings Ceased Operations Ceased Operations Armavia Aerosvit Aerosvit ceasing operations was the largest negative driver on traffic in the CIS region

10 Capacity Changes Largest Airports CIS Airports Monthly Seats 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , ,000 13% 4% Monthly Seats and Percentage Change (by monthly seats) 27% 25% 5% 15% 2013-Dec Change 2012-Dec 20% 14% -3% 1% Three of the four largest airports in the CIS region serve Moscow

11 Regional Flow Focus All flights to/from/within the CIS Monthly scheduled ASKs (millions) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, % Regional Flow ASK & Percentage Change (by monthly scheduled ASK) +10.3% +19.4% Intra CIS Europe Middle East & Africa Total International 9.2% +6.7% +3.3% Dec-12 Dec % China Other Asia Americas International traffic growth outpaced intra CIS growth

12 Capacity Trends Monthly Scheduled ASK for CIS domiciled carriers Monthly Scheduled ASKs (billions) Monthly Scheduled ASKs (billions) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec CIS continues its strong growth with ASK expansion

13 Seat Share by Manufacturer All flights to/from/within CIS Share of Monthly Seats by Manufacturer Other Russian 9% 5% Other 9% Russian 4% Dec 2012 Seat Share Airbus 45% Dec 2013 Seat Share Airbus 48% Boeing 41% Boeing 39% Airbus had a strong expansion in seats market share due to large number of A320 family deliveries

14 Equipment Usage All flights to/from/within the CIS Seats (thousands) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, % 13.1% Dec-12 Dec-13 Other Other Airbus Boeing Other Airbus Boeing Other Props Regional Jets Equipment usage by category (by monthly seats) 21.8% 8.3% Narrowbodies -0.5% 12.6% -4.9% Widebodies -54.1%

15 Equipment Usage CIS domiciled carriers In-service aircraft (Dec 2012 & Dec 2013) Dec 2012 Dec In service aircraft Source: Ascend Online, commercial jets as of 31Dec data pulled 15Jan2014

16 Equipment usage and orders CIS domiciled carriers, excludes some aircraft types 250 In-service and on order aircraft (December 2013) On Order In Service Aircraft in service and on order Source: Ascend Online, commercial jets as of 31Dec data pulled 15Jan2014

17 Top Markets by 2013 Monthly Seats All flights to/from/within CIS December 2013 % Year over Year Change Route Seats Flights Seats Flights Seats per Flights St Petersburg (LED) - Moscow (DME) 147,526 1,083 18% 7% 10% St Petersburg (LED) - Moscow (SVO) 147, % 7% 9% Astana (TSE) - Almaty (ALA) 117, % 12% -1% Moscow (DME) - Yekaterinburg (SVX) 98, % -2% -1% Moscow (SVO) - Paris (CDG) 87, % 0% -4% Moscow (DME) - Krasnodar (KRR) 84, % 8% 9% Moscow (VKO) - St Petersburg (LED) 82, % 140% 12% Moscow (SVO) - Prague (PRG) 71, % 12% -2% Sochi (AER) - Moscow (DME) 70, % 74% 9% Moscow (DME) - DUBAI (DXB) 71, % 27% 8% Novosibirsk (OVB) - Moscow (DME) 70, % 0% -8% Kiev (KBP) - Moscow (SVO) 68, % 0% 4% Istanbul (IST) - Baku (GYD) 67, % 0% -3% Moscow (DME) - Kiev (KBP) 66, % 142% 24% Rostov (ROV) - Moscow (DME) 64, % 7% -1% Moscow (DME) - MUNICH (MUC) 62, % -3% 4% Istanbul (IST) - Moscow (VKO) 54, % 21% -6% Moscow (SVO) - Rostov (ROV) 52, % 7% -4% Moscow (DME) - Ufa (UFA) 52, % 2% 15% Novosibirsk (OVB) - Moscow (SVO) 52, % 67% 2%

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