RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTMENT FOR TRANSPORT THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF AIR TRANSPORT IN THE UK

Transcription

1 RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTMENT FOR TRANSPORT THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF AIR TRANSPORT IN THE UK NOVEMBER 2002

2 CONTENTS Page No. Executive Summary 2 Introduction 5 Format of Response 6 Overall Policy 6 The Regions outside the South East 11 The South East and Eastern Region 17 Appendix A 26 Appendix B 28 Appendix C 29 Appendix D 62 SASIG County Hall Penrhyn Road Kingston upon Thames Surrey KT1 2DT Tel: Fax: sasig@surreycc.gov.uk Web address: Air Transport in the UK 1 SASIG: November 2002

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Strategic Aviation Special Interest Group (SASIG) of the Local Government Association comprises some 75 local authorities that have an interest and responsibility for major aviation issues within their administrative areas. The population represented by SASIG is some 23 million. SASIG has campaigned for many years for a long-term aviation strategy for the UK. Whilst looking 30 years ahead is difficult, it is the minimum time frame over which to ensure that any strategy can show the vision necessary to avoid incremental growth at existing airports. SASIG accepts the Government s mid point forecasts of 500 million passengers per annum at 2030 as the basis for formulating airports policy, but expects the Government to develop a strategy that has viability for at least another 10 years so as to accommodate higher or slower growth. SASIG believes that policies based on predict and provide do not allow sufficient account to be taken of the need for aviation to meet its external costs. Policies based on predict and manage may both deny the travelling public the social opportunities that they will increasingly demand and deny the economic benefits to the UK. However, the best process is one of predict and plan. It allows for vision to help determine the right course of action. SASIG expects there to be strong, local opposition to any individual project proposed by Government. That should not be a reason for the Government to avoid taking those difficult long-term decisions. SASIG has a range of firm views set out below. Together, they form a coherent and essential aviation strategy. 1 SASIG EXPECTS the Government to maintain its commitment to publish an Airports Policy White Paper that looks 30 years ahead. Anything less will undermine the credibility of the aviation planning process. 2 SASIG COMMITS itself to working with Government in finding a longterm solution to meeting all or part of aviation demand in a sustainable way. 3 SASIG ACCEPTS the Government s unconstrained forecasts as the basis for formulating aviation policy but feels that UK demand of 500 to 600 million passengers per annum (mppa) should be the planning horizon so that there is no shortfall of planned capacity in the event of the midpoint forecast being exceeded. Growth will not stop suddenly at 2030 Air Transport in the UK 2 SASIG: November 2002

4 and thus there is no reason to seek a neat fit between the demand forecasts and planned provision. 4 SASIG EXPECTS the Government to use the strength of the aviation industry s economic driving force to assist rather than damage local economies. 5 SASIG EXPECTS airport growth to be conditional upon enforceable agreements to limit environmental impact to agreed levels, particularly for noise, air pollution and surface access. 6 SASIG ADVOCATES that the Airports Policy White Paper should provide a long-term solution with considerable vision. It should enable the growth of all or most of the regional airports providing a combined capacity of around 200 mppa. It should also provide for a firm capping of the existing main London airports at the capacity of the existing runways, with the provision of a new 24 hour airport in a suitable location to serve the South East. 7 SASIG ADVOCATES the concept of an environmental capacity limit for each airport and that step increases in capacity should only be provided where technological and operational improvements to reduce the environmental impacts can be demonstrated. 8 SASIG EXPECTS the aviation industry to meet the external costs it imposes, including environmental costs, as promised in the Integrated Transport White Paper. SASIG also EXPECTS the Government not to sanction growth until there is a clear methodology of calculating and resolving the payment of those costs. 9 SASIG EXPECTS the Government to take whatever measures are necessary to ensure that the development of the aviation industry is based on the Government s own sustainability agenda. 10 SASIG EXPECTS the Government to ensure that a national aviation policy is rapidly embodied into new regional planning guidance and development plans for all regions of the UK. 11 SASIG ACCEPTS that, over the next 30 years, provision should be made for regional demand of around 200 mppa to be accommodated, subject to strict environmental safeguards at individual airports. Opportunities at the regional airports should not be frustrated by agreements that favour the five London airports, as has been evident in the past, nor by a shortage of suitably sited runways serving the London area. 12 SASIG ACCEPTS that, over the next 30 years, provision should be made for around 16 mppa in the South West region, with some emphasis given to good connections to both a new London Airport and the existing London airports. Air Transport in the UK 3 SASIG: November 2002

5 13 SASIG ACCEPTS that, over the next 30 years, provision should be made for around 90 mppa in the Northern regions, with some emphasis given to good connections to both a new London airport and the existing London airports. 14 SASIG ACCEPTS that, over the next 30 years, provision should be made for at least 36 mppa in the Midlands. That provision could be increased to around 45 mppa through the expansion of Birmingham Airport subject to the acceptance of the local authorities in the area. 15 SASIG PROPOSES that the Government s long term policy for the South East should be based on no new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted. In the light of the Government s current forecasts and the Government s statement that doing nothing is not an option, a new airport should be developed into a potential 4/5 runway, 24-hour airport. On the understanding that the Government s technical work has shown that Cliffe is the best new airport option, then the Government be encouraged to undertake further studies on that site and other sites to ensure that, at whatever site is finally chosen, the impact on both land take and nature conservation is minimised. 16 SASIG PROPOSES that, over the next 30 years, provision should be made for around 100 to 150 mppa at a new airport to serve the South East, with firm environmental safeguards and appropriate mitigation measures. 17 SASIG ACCEPTS that, over the next 30 years, provision should be made at Gatwick for around 40 mppa with a range of environmental safeguards on noise, air pollution and night flights. 18 SASIG REJECTS a further runway at Heathrow and PROPOSES that, over the next 30 years, the airport should be capped at 480,000 atms and around 89 mppa, with a range of environmental safeguards on noise, air pollution and night flights. 19 SASIG REJECTS further runways at Stansted and PROPOSES that, over the next 30 years, the airport should be capped at around 35 mppa, with a range of environmental safeguards on noise, air pollution and night flights. 20 SASIG SUPPORTS the continued development of Luton as a 1-runway airport. 21 SASIG REJECTS the suggested airport option at Alconbury as it does not fit with SASIG s vision of a new airport in the South East. Air Transport in the UK 4 SASIG: November 2002

6 INTRODUCTION 1 The Strategic Aviation Special Interest Group of the Local Government Association (SASIG) comprises some 75 local authorities that have an interest and responsibility for major aviation issues within their administrative areas. They established themselves within the Local Government Association so as to have a forum within which to discuss this specialist topic. 2 To this end SASIG has adopted a mission statement which reads: SASIG seeks to ensure that there is a national aviation strategy for the UK that reconciles economic, social and environmental issues in a sustainable way. SASIG encourages airports and the aviation industry to operate in harmony with local government and with the communities they serve. 3 Membership of SASIG is set out at Appendix A. The combined population of all the authorities listed is some 23 million people. SASIG thus presents a powerful voice of interested authorities, working within a democratic framework. SASIG is not a one-sided interest group but has the economic, social and environmental well being of the electorate to consider. SASIG has taken an overall view of the issues as they affect the whole of the UK. Inevitably some of the SASIG authorities do not support a small number of specific solutions. The extent of their reservations is shown in Appendix B. 4 SASIG welcomes the opportunity of responding to the Government on the "Future Development of Air Transport in the UK" and congratulates the Department for Transport on the extensive work that has been undertaken in preparing the consultation documents. SASIG also welcomes the fact that the White Paper, which will be the outcome of the consultation process, will look 30 years ahead and should therefore provide a reasonable, but minimum, planning horizon. SASIG EXPECTS the Government to maintain its commitment to publish an Airports White Paper that looks 30 years ahead. Anything less will undermine the credibility of the aviation planning process. 5 SASIG has no illusions about the difficulty facing Government, local authorities, the aviation industry and indeed the population as a whole in finding an acceptable balanced solution. Whatever the solutions, there are bound to be those that are adversely affected and that seek to prevent the project taking place. Within SASIG s own membership there are a variety of views on individual projects and in the extent to which demand should be met. There are two options to handling this dilemma. Either: Develop a set of policies and proposals that only includes the less contentious options. This is likely to result in no clarity in long term policy, under provision and then continuous contention over incremental growth. Air Transport in the UK 5 SASIG: November 2002

7 Take a long-term view and create a visionary solution that enables the aviation industry and the planning authorities to have certainty over the location and direction of growth for the next 30 to 40 years. Whilst this may upset those adversely affected, it is the only sensible strategic way forward. FORMAT OF RESPONSE 6 SASIG's response to the consultation documents is based on a broad policy view, followed by a consideration of the main options and policy scenarios for each of the English regions. SASIG's membership does not cover Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and thus there are no specific comments on those areas. The implications for individual airports are then considered. 7 This response seeks to provide a concise view of those aspects of particular concern to SASIG. A very detailed study of some aspects, particularly as they affect the South East options, has been prepared by consultants, Berkeley Hanover Consulting (BHC). Their conclusions are included as Appendix C. It is worth noting that BHC, appointed by the then DTLR, were the lead authors of the appraisal methodology used in SERAS. 8 SASIG local authorities will, in the main, submit their own detailed observations on individual airports. However there are some key policy points on individual airports which are important and which are set out in the paragraphs below. OVERALL POLICY 9 SASIG has previously argued for the management of future demand in aviation on the basis that such huge growth may not be sustainable in terms of a wide range of impacts such as noise, air pollution, localised urbanisation pressures and integration with wider regional and sub regional economic aspirations. Some of the SASIG authorities remain committed to this approach. However there is general recognition that the Government has been convinced that growth in aviation is essential for the UK economy and it is on this basis that this response is being made. 10 SASIG considers that there are three ways to take the aviation debate forward. Predict and provide a much discredited process of meeting whatever demand arises without considering the sustainability of the solution. Predict and manage based on the assumption that some people will be denied the opportunity to travel by pricing or lack of infrastructure. If the extent of the management fails to be effective, then incremental un-planned growth is likely to follow. This is not a strategic way forward. Predict and plan this is the very essence of a strategic approach. It allows long term plans to be made that are flexible enough to be implemented more quickly or more slowly depending on their sustainability at the time. SASIG COMMITS itself to working with Government in finding a long-term solution to meeting all or part of aviation demand in a sustainable way. Air Transport in the UK 6 SASIG: November 2002

8 Forecasts of aviation demand 11 The consultation documents are all based on unconstrained demand forecasts for 2030 of some 500 million passengers per annum (mppa). This is a mid-point figure, with the high being 600 mppa and the low being 400 mppa. SASIG accepts that no forecasts can be expected to be accurate. However, the out-turn of some of the earlier forecasts has been at the high end of the range. On this occasion the forecasts show an average growth over the 30 year period of around 3.5% per annum. This is much lower than the 5 or 6% per annum over recent years. If growth continues at 5% per annum, then capacity at 2030 would need to be found for around 780 mppa. 12 In this current strategic planning exercise it is more important to use a robust demand figure than become too concerned about the date when that forecast is achieved. It is thus important not to underestimate future demand as it seems likely that there will be growth beyond On that basis 500 mppa may be reached a few years either side of If however plans are confirmed that provide an exact fit for, say 450 mppa, and then that figure is exceeded, the UK could find itself back in the position of having to take ad hoc, ill planned decisions as has characterised the aviation industry for the last 20 to 30 years. 13 SASIG notes that the forecasts are unconstrained. They have taken no account of infrastructure shortages nor of the extent to which the inclusion of external costs or other policy initiatives would change the figures. 14 The current exercise is setting the policy direction of aviation in the UK for at least 30 years. Any plan now that doesn t provide a visionary solution could have pushed aviation provision in the wrong direction for ever. It is important for the Government to create the best possible policy and avoid the ac-hoc solutions of the past. SASIG ACCEPTS the Government s unconstrained forecasts as the basis for formulating aviation policy but feels that UK demand of 500 to 600 mppa should be the planning horizon so that there is no shortfall of planned capacity in the event of the mid-point forecast being exceeded. Growth will not stop suddenly at 2030 and thus there is no reason to seek a neat fit between the demand forecasts and planned provision. Economic costs and benefits 15 SASIG has previously expressed disappointment that the economic issues surrounding the aviation industry have not been independently studied. This is still the case. In all the numerous supporting documents that have been published there seems to be no Government sponsored research on this topic. Reliance is unfortunately still placed on the Oxford Economic Forecasting study, largely paid for and controlled by the industry. 16 SASIG does not dispute the huge economic benefits but it must be acknowledged that there are huge economic and environmental costs of Air Transport in the UK 7 SASIG: November 2002

9 achieving those benefits. It will be important in developing a national policy to ensure that, wherever possible, the economic benefits are directed to, and felt in, areas that need such a stimulus. Airport expansion in areas where the economy is overheated may bring some benefits to the UK economy but at the expense of the local economy. Equally the maximum benefits to the UK may not be realised if airport development takes place in over heated areas or those not the targets for major growth. 17 Aviation should be seen as a key driver of achieving the Government's wider policy objectives of securing sustainable economic regeneration that recognises the crucial links between economic, social and environmental progress. As airports generate huge economic benefits the Government needs to look seriously at new airport capacity in new geographical areas whereby employment and regeneration benefits can be secured, especially where other key criteria are met (e.g. private investments, transport integration). This approach will enable a complementary reduction of the economic and environmental pressures on overheated areas around "successful airports". 18 Future investment in airports should complement wider policy objectives. Attributes of airport growth are urbanisation, employment growth and increased levels of surface access. The government rightly seeks to integrate transport and land use and greater emphasis should be given to "joined up" thinking by integrating airport policy with long term spatial strategies that are developing. Greater attention should be given to the needs of sub-regions where airport policy could offer significant economic drivers of change. 19 SASIG is concerned that, in illustrating the effects of airport options in the South East, no account has been taken of the induced and catalytic employment effects. One of the benefits of aviation to the UK is its ability to help attract inward investment to an airport location. In some parts of the country, particularly West London, failure in the consultation document to show those effects has minimised the environmental damage from excessive urbanisation. Equally, for those options associated with a planned growth area, then the stimulus of the airport has been minimised. SASIG EXPECTS the Government to use the strength of the aviation industry s economic driving force to assist rather than damage local economies. Environmental capacity 20 Aviation policy has to balance the economic benefits with the environmental impact. At a strategic level, there must be an assessment made of the capacity of the UK to provide for a continuous growth of aviation provision, not just for 30 years but for ever. Once the locational policy has been settled it is then necessary to take steps to reduce to a minimum the adverse impact on people. Air Transport in the UK 8 SASIG: November 2002

10 21 This will entail setting binding legal agreement about levels of impact and the controls to ensure those agreements are honoured. There are probably three main areas where such problems need to be overcome. Firstly noise. Apart from measures to minimise it, the suggestions for more generous compensation, set out in the consultation reports is welcomed. The basis of any noise policy should be that those people within the 57dBA contour (supposedly representing the onset of noise disturbance) should become entitled to mitigation. Secondly air pollution. No houses should be allowed to remain in areas where the level of pollution exceeds the tightest standards current at that time. Thirdly surface access. Challenging modal splits, for employees and passengers must be met, for each airport, such that passenger numbers cannot be exceeded if those targets are not being met. It will be essential to ensure that the rail and road proposals are funded in advance of new airport facilities coming on-stream. SASIG EXPECTS airport growth to be conditional upon enforceable agreements to limit environmental impact to agreed levels, particularly for noise, air pollution and surface access. A strategic overview of policy. 22 SASIG supports the overall policy scenario of the RASCO Reference Case (RRC) which largely assumes the continuation of current policies. SASIG considers that this is best achieved by growth in the regions and a new airport to serve the South East. SASIG ADVOCATES that the Aviation White Paper should provide a longterm solution with considerable vision. It should enable the growth of all or most regional airports providing a combined capacity of around 200 mppa. It should also provide for a firm capping of the London airports at the capacity of the existing runways, with the provision of a new 24 hour airport in a suitable location. 23 However SASIG would like to stress that for such growth to be accommodated it is essential that the aviation industry demonstrates vast technological improvements to minimise its environmental impacts. SASIG ADVOCATES the concept of an environmental capacity limit for each airport and that step increases in capacity should only be provided where technological and operational improvements to reduce the environmental impacts can be demonstrated. 24 The Government is committed to ensuring that aviation meets it external, including environmental costs. It is not clear from the consultation reports how this will be achieved in practice. Of particular concern are the global and local effects of air pollution where a solution is not directly within the control of the UK Air Transport in the UK 9 SASIG: November 2002

11 Government. In addition noise, by day and by night, is unacceptable to large numbers of people. They need to be assured of a remedy. SASIG EXPECTS the aviation industry to meet "the external costs it imposes, including environmental costs", as promised in the Integrated Transport White Paper. SASIG also EXPECTS the Government not to sanction growth until there is a clear methodology of calculating and resolving the payment of those costs. 25 SASIG would like to stress that the Air Transport White Paper should dictate a policy, which provides the best solution for the UK as a whole. This will entail balancing economic, social and environmental issues not just creating the policy that is best for the aviation industry. 26 The industry has argued that demand for air transport should be met where it arises with minimum Government intervention. SASIG would like to stress that Government intervention is required to assure that the various facets of the Government's Sustainable Development Strategy are met. Government intervention is essential to ensure the most effective and sustainable aviation industry. Positive assistance by Government was noticeable when the industry suffered the downturn in traffic as a consequence of the terrorist attacks of 11 September SASIG EXPECTS the Government to take whatever measures are necessary to ensure that the development of the aviation industry is based on the Government s own sustainability agenda. Implementation of the Aviation White Paper 27 Once a White Paper has been published by Government it will be essential to ensure it is implemented. Initially the contents of the White Paper will need to be embodied in new Regional Planning Guidance (or Regional Spatial Strategies), even if the particular region is not necessarily happy with the Government s policy. The regional policies will then need to be translated into Structure and Local Plans (or Local Development Frameworks). Thereafter it will clearly be for a developer to make the appropriate planning application. The White Paper must make it clear that the local planning authority should not debate the correctness of Government policy in determining the application or at any public inquiry that may be necessary. 28 Some proposals may come forward that are in conflict with the White Paper. There must be a clear presumption that they will fail to achieve a planning permission. SASIG EXPECTS the Government to ensure that a national aviation policy is rapidly embodied into new regional planning guidance and development plans for all regions of the UK. Air Transport in the UK 10 SASIG: November 2002

12 THE REGIONS OUTSIDE THE SOUTH EAST Overall position 29 The suggested growth levels at individual airports, under the RRC scenario, are set out in Appendix D. Whilst these are generally acceptable to SASIG at a strategic policy level, it will in all cases be important to ensure that carefully designed environmental controls are established, monitored and maintained. 30 In addition, airport operators will need to work with the relevant local authorities, where this is not already being done, to establish improved public transport access to the airports so as to enhance the modal shift. 31 SASIG has always supported policies that seek as much growth at regional airports as is acceptable locally, particularly where economic regeneration is supported. One of the recent problems for regional airports has been the difficulty of maintaining or securing runway slots to the London airports. There has simply been a shortage of slots, yet the industry has not recently made a proposal for a new runway in the South East seemingly preferring to build terminals and squeeze out the less profitable internal flights. 32 The result of this is that many regional airports have turned to Europe to be able to provide the necessary connections. In many ways, the passenger has not been disadvantaged as it may be of little relevance whether a connection is made in Schiphol or Heathrow. What presumably has mattered is that a UK airline and thus the economy of UK plc may have lost revenue to a foreign carrier. 33 SASIG suggests that the Government should consider using fiscal measures to help regional airports develop. One option would be the use of a passenger levy at South East Airports to help fund regional airport development. 34 In developing a new national aviation policy, SASIG would hope that the Government would fully support regional growth by allowing access to the London airports, principally for long haul connecting flights that cannot be provided within the regions. At the same time, strategic rail services should be improved to enable both city centre to city centre journeys and enable direct city to regional airport journeys thus integrating rail and air transport. Overall there should be greater emphasis on transport integration by steering investment towards airport/rail opportunities and aligning air transport with strategic rail policy to create a sustainable transport network. Air Transport in the UK 11 SASIG: November 2002

13 SASIG ACCEPTS that, over the next 30 years, provision should be made for regional demand of around 200 mppa to be accommodated, subject to strict environmental safeguards at individual airports. Opportunities at the regional airports should not be frustrated by agreements that favour the five London airports, as has been evident in the past, nor by a shortage of suitably sited runways serving the London Area. The South West Region 35 SASIG's position regarding the "Future Development of Air Transport in the South West" is as follows: The overall demand for the South West, as specified in the RASCO Reference Case, should be accommodated in the South West. The forecast for the South West in 2030 is 15.9 mppa compared to 2.9 mppa in Demand at individual airports in the South West should be met at the various regional airports as set out under the RRC scenario. Any increases in capacity should be accompanied by environmental safeguards to minimise any worsening of the noise climate and to mitigate the other environmental impacts. Bristol should be developed as a regional hub but it is important to note that once it's environmental capacity limit is reached, it will be necessary for other airports in the region to share the excess demand. SASIG does not support a new airport in the Bristol area since it will only be viable if there is no new runway capacity in the South East of England and if the existing airport closes. SASIG supports new runway capacity in the South East through the development of a new airport at Cliffe in North Kent (or a more suitable site if one can be found). The development of a new airport in the South East will allow the South West better air access to the South East through slots at the new airport. The business community in the far South West have placed great significance on access to the London airports. New capacity in the South East means that some passengers from the South West will continue to need to use the London airports and therefore SASIG supports improved rail links from the South West to London. These must serve all the main London Airports, particularly Heathrow and Cliffe (or a more suitable site if one can be found). SASIG ACCEPTS that, over the next 30 years, provision should be made for around 16 mppa in the South West region, with some emphasis given to good connections to both a new London Airport and the existing London airports. Air Transport in the UK 12 SASIG: November 2002

14 Implications for individual airports in the South West 36 Newquay Airport. The forecasts may be an underestimate now that the airport has a low-cost carrier operating from it. It is thought that the airport is likely to reach 2.0 mppa by An important issue for Newquay airport is the interaction between the civil aviation and military operations at the airport. The Ministry of Defence is due to publish a review on the airport. It is essential that the future operation of these two types of use at the airport is made clear in the White Paper. 37 Newquay is an example of an airport serving a more remote region of the UK. It will be important for the Government to take all possible steps to improve air serves to Cornwall. 38 Bristol and Bournemouth Airports. Both airports are only considered suitable for expansion with improvements to the surface access provision, for example potential rail links. The North of England Regions 39 SASIG's position regarding the "Future Development of Air Transport in the North of England" is as follows: The overall demand for the North of England under the RASCO Reference Case should be accommodated in the region. The forecast for the Northern regions (comprising Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East and the North West standard regions) in 2030 is 89.4 mppa compared to 26.3 mppa in It should be noted that the economic and social conditions vary greatly in the region and aviation policy should take account of these variations. Demand should be met at the individual airports in the North of England, as under the RRC, except at Manchester Airport where growth may need to be limited so as to avoid higher levels of environmental impact. Any increases in capacity should be accompanied by environmental safeguards to prevent a worsening of the noise climate and to mitigate the other environmental impacts. SASIG supports the situation whereby some air services from the North of England to the South East are continued for those passengers seeking onward connections. SASIG does not support additional runways at the existing London airports and thus only a new airport will provide the readily available runway capacity. SASIG supports the improvement of the high speed strategic rail links from the North to London. These should serve city centre to city centre and airport passengers, acknowledging that central London should then be well connected with all the London airports, particularly Heathrow and Cliffe (or a more suitable site if one can be found). Continued access from the North of England to the South East will allow airports such as Newcastle to continue to grow. Air Transport in the UK 13 SASIG: November 2002

15 Manchester should continue to see an increasing range and frequency of services and so should continue to be capable of acting as an important regional hub. In view of the wide regional economic disparities and sub-regional regeneration needs, capacity should be directed where social and economic objectives can be achieved. SASIG regrets that greater cognisance has not been taken of the European Union Objective 1 Areas at Liverpool and South Yorkshire, their social and economic conditions (low GDP) and the contribution that aviation policy can make to improving the long term economic competitiveness of these areas. Capacity should be directed to airport opportunities that can accommodate high levels of public transport accessibility for both passengers and employees at airport sites. The unsustainable and poor quality of surface access journeys for consumers that creates high levels of passenger leakage from the Yorkshire and Humberside region should be addressed. The high dependency of the region on Manchester Airport is not considered sustainable in environmental, economic or social terms. SASIG is dismayed that the contribution that Finningley could make to meeting regional demand, particularly for those residents of the region that live east of the Pennines, has not been fully assessed. SASIG ACCEPTS that, over the next 30 years, provision should be made for around 90 mppa in the Northern regions, with some emphasis given to good connections to both a new London airport and the existing London airports. Implications for individual airports in the North of England 40 Manchester Airport. Under the RRC, Manchester is forecast to grow from mppa in 2000 to 60 mppa in The existing infrastructure at the airport could provide capacity for 50 mppa or 340,000 atms. To meet the RRC forecast of 60 mppa for 2030 additional terminal capacity would be required and increased use of mixed-mode operations. These would bring substantial environmental impacts and therefore SASIG suggests an environmental capacity limit set at the level of 50 mppa at the airport. Additional facilities should only be provided if technological and operational measures would ensure no worsening of the environmental impact, particularly the noise climate. 41 SASIG considers that the future of Manchester Airport should be as a two-runway, regional hub airport. The impact of a third runway on the environment and local community is so severe that it should be ruled out in the White Paper. The excess demand at Manchester, which cannot be met due to the constraints, would then be spread across the other airports in the regions. Therefore the other airports in the three North of England regions can achieve a higher growth potential. Air Transport in the UK 14 SASIG: November 2002

16 42 It will also be essential to continue to make step change improvements to the surface access provision to the airport, including setting challenging targets for the model split. 43 Liverpool Airport. This has fairly recently become a strong player in the North West region, particularly with the growth of the low cost airlines. It has the potential to grow in such a way that excessive pressure at Manchester is contained. 44 Doncaster Finningley New Airport. SASIG considers that the option of an airport at Finningley should have been fully evaluated in the consultation documents although the difficulties are understood, due to the pending decision on the Planning Inquiry. An equivalent analysis should have been conducted on a nonprejudicial basis to enable proper evaluation alongside other options should Finningley be approved. 45 If planning approval is given, its traffic could reach 5 mppa by Finningley would provide the opportunity for better services from the Yorkshire and Humber Region and the North Midlands sub-region such that the leakage of passengers out of the Region was reduced. It would also assist the Region in its economic aims and could help to ensure that other airports such as Manchester did not exceed or even reach their environmental capacity limits. In addition it would improve public transport accessibility to airports and regenerate areas of low GDP. Several other points are relevant: The Airport includes potential for heavy rail interchange facilities and is well placed alongside the strategic road network. The airport has the potential to become a transport interchange as envisaged in the Integrated Transport White Paper offering consumers a high level of service in the sub-region and adjacent regions. The Airport would have low impact on the environment. In comparison with other airports, few people would live within the 57dBA noise contour and a small number would live in the PSZ. The site is not located in green belt and is located in a Strategic Economic Zone that can support related economic development. The airport is located in an area of low GDP and within the European Union Objective I Area. It is estimated that the Finningley development will create over 7000 jobs in the region thereby increasing the GDP in the sub-regions by a full percentage point. Not only will the regeneration benefits be felt in the Northern region but also the Midlands, particularly the former coalfield areas of North Nottinghamshire and North Derbyshire. The Midlands Region 46 SASIG's position regarding the "Future Development of Air Transport in the Midlands" is as follows: Under the RRC, the forecast for Birmingham Airport in 2030 is 33 mppa and East Midlands is 12.5 mppa, up from 7.5 mppa and 2.2 mppa in 2000 respectively. Air Transport in the UK 15 SASIG: November 2002

17 SASIG supports the growth at East Midlands to around 12.5 mppa by 2030 based on the use of the existing runway 1. SASIG supports the expansion of Birmingham International Airport initially through more intensive use of the existing runway/extended runway. Then providing the local authorities in the area are content with the concept of a new runway at Birmingham, SASIG accepts the suggested growth to around 33 mppa. Any increases in capacity should be accompanied by extensive mitigation measures including improvements to transport access and measures to reduce the impact of noise on property and people. SASIG ACCEPTS that, over the next 30 years, provision should be made for at least 36 mppa in the Midlands. That provision could be increased to around 45 mppa through the expansion of Birmingham Airport subject to the acceptance of the local authorities in the area. Implications for Individual Airports in the Midlands 47 Birmingham Airport. Providing the Midlands local authorities are content with the concept of a new runway at Birmingham, SASIG supports the expansion of Birmingham International Airport in conjunction with extensive mitigation measures. SASIG understands that there is a new runway option being considered by Birmingham Airport which brings significant environmental improvements compared to the Government s wide spaced proposal. 48 East Midlands Airport. SASIG does not support a second runway at East Midlands airport due to the environmental impacts, particularly the noise and air quality impacts of such an option. In the longer term, excess demand for East Midlands could be met at other airports such as at a new airport at Doncaster Finningley. Some passengers from the Midlands will continue to use the London airports and demand in the South East should be met by the development of a new airport at Cliffe (or a more suitable site if one can be found). 49 There is demand for night flights at East Midlands for freight operations mainly because there are no night flights restrictions at the airport. SASIG considers that the demand for freight operations could better be met at the new airport at Cliffe (or a more suitable London site if one can be found) in the South East which would allow 24-hour operation with minimum disturbance to residents. 50 New Airport Site. SASIG does not support a new airport site in the Midlands as it would only be viable if no new runways are provided in the South East. SASIG s solution for the South East is a new airport at Cliffe or elsewhere, with room for considerable expansion and therefore there would be no need for a new airport in the Midlands. 1 NWLDC is of the opinion that the planning figure should be determined by an assessment of Environmental Capacity at each airport, to a common methodology, and that should determine the level of acceptable growth. Air Transport in the UK 16 SASIG: November 2002

18 THE SOUTH EAST AND EASTERN REGION 51 Inevitably this region raises some of the most complex issues. Berkeley Hanover Consulting (BHC) has addressed some of them for SASIG. Their report is at Appendix C but a few of the key points raised are included here so as to help explain SASIG s conclusions. 52 The relationship between the costs of any option and the likely revenue are important in that the net yield will clearly be a determining factor in implementation. BHC show that Cliffe has the highest net yield at 7.52bn, followed by Heathrow at 6.87bn and Stansted at 3.65bn. 53 The calculation of net economic benefits is important as it brings in the wider implications. But it is critically important to include only those factors that are appropriate. BHC argue that the inclusion of foreign passenger benefits and existing passenger benefits is wrong. Also the cost of noise and air pollution need to be factored in. The result of that re-calculation changes the ranking of the options as shown in the table below. It is not just the ranking that changes but the difference between the options changes. Cliffe now has economic benefits only 1bn less than the two higher options whereas in the ranking as reported the difference between Cliffe and the top option was over 6bn. Ranking as reported LHR+1 & STN+2 LHR+1 & STN+1 STN+3 STN+2 Cliffe LHR+1 STN+1 Adjusted ranking STN+3 LHR+1 & STN+2 Cliffe LHR+1 & STN+1 STN+2 STN+1 LHR+1 54 One of the important factors in determining airport location is the integration with the existing policy base for an area. Such topics as the need to support regeneration initiatives, advantages to the local economy, availability of the low skilled labour needed by airports and housing opportunities need to help drive the right decision. In that the South East is very much a debate about the relative merits of Heathrow, Stansted and Cliffe, then some comparative data is included in the BHC report. Some of the key points are listed below. The need for jobs and houses in London Area Jobs Housing Central 210, ,000 East 250, ,000 West 90,000 55,000 North 25,000 55,000 South 55,000 50,000 Air Transport in the UK 17 SASIG: November 2002

19 Differences in core catchment areas Area Labour force Number Unemployed % unemployed Heathrow 505,000 12, Stansted 137,000 2, Cliffe 438,000 16, Out commuting in the Thames Gateway Area Labour force Total employed Balance in area Kent Thames 273, ,000-89,000 Gateway Essex Thames 322, , ,000 Gateway Outer London 475, , ,000 Thames Gateway Total 1,070, , ,000 Low skilled workers potentially available Area Unemployed Commuting out Potentially available Heathrow 5,600-9,800-4,500 Stansted Cliffe 7,300 16,400 23,700 Housing assumed by SERAS above RPG by 2030 Package Time Frame LHR LGW STN LTN Total LHR to , , , to , , ,633 STN to , ,858 STN to , ,990 STN to , ,369 * Cliffe was not assessed by SERAS in this area although we would expect it to have the least impact relative to the other packages. 55 All the above tables show that from an integration point of view, a new airport site to the East of London would fit much better with planning policies and aspirations than one in the West or North of London. It would also make better use of available labour supply and require less additional housing allocations. Indeed SERAS suggests that Cliffe would require no additional housing to the regional strategy. 56 There is an important range of factors that need to be compared between the various options, many of which are set out below. A more comprehensive chart is at Appendix D. Air Transport in the UK 18 SASIG: November 2002

20 57 SASIG's position regarding the "Future Development of Air Transport in the South East and East" is as follows: That demand for air transport in the South East for 2030 is likely to be at least 300 mppa. SASIG s position is that this demand would best be met through something approaching the stated maximum use of the existing runways at Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted and Luton, supplemented with the development of a new, large, purpose built hub airport. Despite the suggested capping of growth at these airports, there is still a need for the Airports Policy White Paper to propose measures to improve the surface access provision, particularly by public transport. The concept of the option at Cliffe in North Kent would provide for such a new hub, but SASIG considers that there may be better new airport sites still needing detailed examination. SASIG is opposed to new runways at the existing London airports of Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted as the impact of them is unacceptable. These impacts are set out later, in detail, for each airport. A new airport in the vicinity of the Thames estuary would be the economic driver to assist the long desired regional planning aim to create a more prosperous area East of London, just as West London has dominated the regional balance for far too long. The new airport option would greatly curtail the increase in the noise and air pollution problems which plague the existing London airports, since relatively few people would be affected by aircraft noise and air pollution. A new coastal airport would allow 24-hour operation to meet the needs of air freight and to enhance operational capacity. Overall, Cliffe would have the lowest environmental impacts on people out of any of the runway options in the South East. By adding new runway capacity at a new airport in the London Airports system, regional airports will be assured access to runway slots for interlining passengers. The maximum use capacity (198.5 mppa) calculation in the consultation reports is misleading in that it is contingent on a replacement runway at Luton. The true maximum use capacity should be around 185 mppa. SASIG PROPOSES that the Government s long term policy for the South East should be based on no new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted. In the light of the Government s current forecasts and the Government s statement that doing nothing is not an option, a new airport should be developed into a potential 4/5 runway, 24-hour airport. On the understanding that the Government s technical work has shown that Cliffe is the best new airport option, then the Government be encouraged to undertake further studies on that site and other sites to ensure that, at whatever site is finally chosen, the impact on both land take and nature conservation is minimised. Implications for Individual Airports in the East and South East Air Transport in the UK 19 SASIG: November 2002

21 58 Cliffe New Airport. The option put forward for consultation is for a large airport with two pairs of parallel runways and a fifth cross-wind runway to enable night time noise-free flights an important requirement of the aviation industry. SASIG considers that the development of such an option offers the UK the opportunity to move from a situation where airports grow incrementally as demand forces last minute decisions, to one of planned growth and long term capacity. In many ways this parallels the approach the French Government took many years ago when they judged Orly (Paris) to be full and chose to develop Charles de Gaulle at a location where transport links could be high quality and economic growth was welcomed. Cliffe has the potential to be a better hub than Charles de Gaulle and hence a stronger more attractive airport. 59 SASIG acknowledges that the Government would need to provide incentives to ensure that some airlines move their operations to any new site. This could result in London having twin hubs, with Heathrow s two runways continuing to provide the home base for one of the airline alliances and Cliffe providing for the other. 60 SASIG acknowledges that the new site, as proposed at Cliffe, would have a large ecological impact in terms of land take and impact on internationally designated habitats. However these impacts need to be weighed against the noise and air quality impacts on people should further runways be built at Heathrow and Stansted. SASIG notes that to mitigate against the ecological impact the SERAS study found that a new habitat in North Kent could be created for 230 million. Thus the bird problem is not only manageable but also cheaper to resolve than the compulsory purchase of many thousand of homes around Heathrow that BHC has estimated would cost in excess of 1bn. 61 A new airport at Cliffe has, in SASIG s opinion, many advantages over other solutions: Cliffe has been identified by the Government as the best new airport option for the South East, having undertaken an exhaustive site search. This must be one of the very few locations in the South East where adequate land is available with relatively low impact on people. Cliffe could have good rail and road links to London and other regions. Airport development would support the regeneration policies for the Thames Gateway. A new airport in North Kent would remove the need for additional runways at the existing London airports. Above all else, the development of Cliffe would be a visionary solution that would have the capacity to absorb passenger growth for the next 30 years and beyond. This includes the opportunity to ensure that state of the art facilities can be included to make the new airport safer, a more pleasant travelling experience and more profitable. 62 Equally Cliffe has disadvantages which need to be overcome: Air Transport in the UK 20 SASIG: November 2002