The atlas consists of more than 100 maps complemented with analysis and statistical information that make up a volume of more than 400 pages.

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2 GEOPOLITICS OF THE OCEANS. AN ATLAS OF MARÍTIME SCENARIOS Juan L Suárez de Vivero (Editor) Summary of cartography The atlas consists of more than 100 maps complemented with analysis and statistical information that make up a volume of more than 400 pages. Available soon a Spanish version (maps in English) on pdf format Lead researcher: Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero Researchers: Juan Carlos Rodríguez Mateos Technical team: Juan Manuel Martín Jiménez Gabriel Orozco Frutos Juan Eloy Ibáñez López-Cepero Seville, 2015

3 General Index Index of maps Index of tables Index of figures 0. CONCEPTUAL INTRODUCTION Justification of study A related concept: strategic scenarios Regions, strategic regions, geopolitical regions. Marine regions Geopolitical maritime scenarios: an attempt to define The interests of European foreign policy. The EU geopolitical scenarios Regional sea basins of the EU maritime geopolitical scenarios. 1. GLOBAL OCEAN Waters and maritime zones under national jurisdiction High seas Area Extended continental shelf International straits and canals. 1

4 2. MAJOR DIVISIONS AND MARITIME REGIONS Continents and oceans basins Great ocean basins and regional seas AoA regions (UN General Assembly) The World Bank regions Political blocs and alliances European Union (EU) North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Emerging national economies (BRICS) Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) The Arab League Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Others. 3. NEW OCEAN GEOPOLITICS Areas of geopolitical interest Uses of strategic interest Marine basins of interest for the Integrated Maritime Policy of the EU. 2

5 Arctic and Antarctic Gulf of Guinea Asia-Pacific Atlantic Ocean Mediterranean Sea Red Sea and Persian Gulf Caribbean Sea Islamic State (ISIS). 4. STATES AND THE SEA Failed states and oceans Maritime and landlocked states Archipelagic states Microstates and offshore states Disputed territories Maritime dimension of secessionist movements. 5. GEOPOLITICAL INDICATORS OF THE OCEANS. Bibliography. 3

6 0. CONCEPTUAL INTRODUCTION 4

7 We are currently seeing major changes on the world maritime stage due to the relative decline of 19th century maritime powers and the rise of new ones (emerging countries). To this can be added the consequent shifts in the balance of world power, the consolidation of the new Law of the Sea (which sprang up in parallel to the decolonisation process), the progressive maritimisation of both the economy (Vigarié, 1990) and geopolitics, and the growing importance of States' maritime dimension, with the expansion of their maritime jurisdictions (exclusive economic zone, extended continental shelf). This all has geographical and political consequences of great and undoubted interest, as major geopolitical scenarios are being created in areas previously regarded as having only minor importance, whereas other more traditional and well-known areas are undergoing constant change and adjustment. There is a shift in the correlation of power, the geopolitical chessboard is being reshaped (Brzezinski, 1998) and maritime challenges are arising in the spheres of security, resources and the environment, etc., to which powers like the EU are trying to respond. In this setting, the Atlas of Maritime Scenarios seeks to illustrate and document the characteristics of these areas of maritime geopolitics, with special attention paid to the EU (the Atlantic, the Mediterranean) and other scenarios that are set to play a special role in the European Union's foreign affairs and security (the Arctic, the Black Sea, etc.) in the not-too-distant future. The purpose of this atlas is to afford users an information platform with statistical data, maps and other complementary information that encourages users to learn about these scenarios, to view them and form opinions about them. We believe that it can be of use to a range of users. These include public administrations and institutions that are responsible for maritime affairs and/or security, which can use the scenarios as both the means and the manner to recognise, define and delimit geographical areas considered important for the interests of the EU, where disputes may arise that require the intervention of both State and European institutions. 5

8 1. GLOBAL OCEAN 6

9 1.1. Waters and maritime zones under national jurisdiction. 7

10 1.4. Extended continental shelf. 8

11 Extended continental shelf. Summary. Nº Claims (Complete reports Dec. 2012) 65 Nº States 55 Nº Preliminary information reports 44 Nº states 40 Estimated ECS surface (without overlapping) World EEZ 23,7 M Sq. Km 151 M Sq. Km % ECS/EEZ 15,7 % Average per country Max. Australia Min. Cuba 0,43 M Sq. Km 3,17 M Sq. Km 0,0015 M Sq. Km Source: Author based on Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS)

12 2. MAJOR DIVISIONS AND MARITIME REGIONS 10

13 2.2. Waters and maritime zones under national jurisdiction. 11

14 12

15 UNEP Regional seas. Regional Seas Sq. km Regional Seas Sq. km Pacific West and Central Africa - WACAF North-East Atlantic South Asian Seas Arctic Ocean North-East Pacific East Asian Seas Mediterranean Sea Southern Ocean Red Sea & Gulf of Aden - PERSGA Northwest Pacific Black Sea Eastern Africa Caspian Sea South-East Pacific Baltic Sea Wider Caribbean ROPME Sea Area Source: Author based on United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 13

16 2.5. Political blocs and alliances. 14

17 Blocs and alliances. Alliance Members Partners Foundation year Jurisdictions area (Sq. Km) NATO EU MERCOSUR OECD ASEAN ARAB LEAGUE BRICS Source: Author. 15

18 European Union (EU). 16

19 EU waters in the world. Ocean/sea Total area (Sq. Km) Area under national jurisdictions EU waters (Sq. Km) % presencia aguas UE respecto a % presencia aguas UE respecto a aguas bajo jurisdicción (Sq. Km) superficie total nacional Arctic ,33 0,35 North Sea ,76 75,76 Baltic Sea ,23 94,23 Black Sea ,13 12,13 Mediterranean ,86 33,86 Indian ,38 14,98 Pacific ,71 10,58 Antarctic ,29 14,62 Atlantic ,87 36,51 World total ,08 16,5 Source: Author based on DOALOS. 17

20 EU jurisdictions by sea basin. Source: Author. 18

21 The EU position in the top ten ranking. Population (millions) Land (Sq. km) Maritime jurisdiction (Sq. km) Total: maritime jurisdiction + land (Sq. km) 1 China Russia European Union European Union India Canada Australia Russia European Union USA USA Australia USA China France USA Indonesia Brazil UK Canada Brazil Australia New Zealand Brazil Pakistan 182 European Union Russia France Nigeria India Canada China Bangladesh Argentina Indonesia UK Russia D. R. Congo Argentina New Zealand Japan Algeria Japan Argentina Source: Author based on UNITED NATIONS (2013): World Population Prospect. 19

22 3. NEW OCEAN GEOPOLITICS 20

23 21

24 Uses of strategic interest. 22

25 23

26 Giant oil/gas fields by regions. Giant oil/gas fields by regions Region Gas Oil Total Africa Asia and Oceania Central and South America Eastern Europe and Former USSR Middle East North America Western Europe Source: Author based on AAPG, WSGS and BP. 24

27 Marine basins of interest for the Integrated Maritime Policy of the EU. 25

28 Gulf of Guinea. 26

29 Geographic data. Coastal countries Land Surface (Sq. km) GDP 2012 (Billions $) Population (Millions) HDI Angola ,1 20,82 0,508 Benin ,557 10,05 0,436 Cameroon ,32 21,7 0,495 Democratic Republic of the Congo ,68 4,337 0,534 Equatorial Guinea ,7 0,736 0,554 Gabon ,38 1,633 0,683 Ghana ,71 25,37 0,558 Guinea ,632 11,45 0,355 Guinea Bissau ,8223 1,664 0,364 Ivory Coast ,68 19,84 0,432 Liberia ,734 4,19 0,388 27

30 Coastal countries Land Surface (Sq. km) GDP 2012 (Billions $) Population (Millions) HDI Nigeria ,6 168,8 0,471 Republic of the Congo ,2 65,71 0,304 Sao Tome and Principe ,2634 0,188 0,525 Sierra Leone ,796 5,979 0,359 Togo ,814 6,643 0,459 Total (coastal) Average (coastal)

31 Landlocked countries Land Surface (Sq. km) GDP 2012 (Billions $) Population (Millions) HDI Burkina Faso ,4 16,46 0,343 Central African Republic ,1 4,53 0,352 Chad ,8 12,45 0,34 Mali ,3 14,853 0,344 Niger ,3 17,16 0,304 Total (landlocked) Average (landlocked) Total Average Source: Author. 29

32 30

33 Maritime jurisdictions. Jurisdictional waters (Sq. km) Countries Inland waters Territorial sea Contiguous zone Exclusive economic zone Extended continental shelf Total Angola Eq. Guinea Ghana Liberia Gabon Ivory Coast Nigeria Sierra Leone S. Tome and Principe

34 Jurisdictional waters (Sq. km) Countries Inland waters Territorial sea Contiguous zone Exclusive economic zone Extended continental shelf Total Guinea Guinea Bissau Congo Nigeria-Sao Tome (joint) Benin Togo Cameroon RD Congo Total Source: Author. 32

35 33

36 Ports by country. Ports by country Ports by size Max size of vessels Nigeria 25 Large 1 Large 38 Angola 15 Medium 10 Medium 33 Gabon 7 Small 18 Unknown 23 Equatorial Guinea 7 Very small 65 Total 94 Cameroon 6 Total 94 Fuel-oil service Ivory Coast 5 Type port Yes 42 Republic of the Congo 4 Open Roadstead 51 No 38 Liberia 4 River Natural 25 Unknown 14 Guinea 4 Coastal Breakwater 9 Total 94 Ghana 4 Coastal Natural 8 Diesel service Sierra Leone 3 Lake or Canal 1 Yes 35 Democratic Republic of the Congo 3 Total 94 No 36 Togo 2 Shelter Unknown 23 Sao Tome and Principe 2 Poor 46 Total 94 Guinea Bissau 2 Good 23 Benin 1 Fair 21 Total 94 Excellent 4 34

37 35

38 Attacks pirates by country/jurisdiction. Country/ High seas Inland waters Territorial sea Contiguous zone Exclusive economic zone Total Nigeria Ghana Guinea Benin Angola Ivory Coast Togo RD Congo Cameroon Congo Sierra Leone

39 Country/ High seas Inland waters Territorial sea Contiguous zone Exclusive economic zone Total Equatorial Guinea Liberia Guinea Bissau High seas Total general Source: Author based on Linked Open Piracy,

40 Asia-Pacific. 38

41 Maritime jurisdictions by country. Country Archipelagic waters Inland waters Territorial sea Contiguous zone Exclusive economic zone Extended continental shelf Total Indonesia Japan Federated States of Micronesia Papua New Guinea Philippines Solomon Islands China United States of America Palau

42 Country Archipelagic waters Inland waters Territorial sea Contiguous zone Exclusive economic zone Extended continental shelf Total Vietnam Malaysia South Korea Taiwan Thailand North Korea Cambodia East Timor Brunei Singapore Japan/ Palau

43 Country Archipelagic waters Inland waters Territorial sea Contiguous zone Exclusive economic zone Extended continental shelf Total Joint submission China/ Japan/ Korea Vietnam/ Malaysia China/ Japan Japan/ Korea Joint Regime Disputed* *Estimating the disputed sea area. Source: Author based on DOALOS. 41

44 42

45 43

46 Territorial disputes. Territories Involved states Maritime surface (Sq. Km.) Islands/rocks surface (Sq. Km) Population Type of claim (jurisdictions) Number of islands South Kuriles Islands Russia and Japan Yes Islands, and EEZ 4 Senkaku Islands Japon, China and Taiwan ,33 No Islands, Inland waters, territorial sea and EEZ 8 islands and rocks Paracel Islands China, Taiwan and Vietnam No Islands, Inland waters, territorial sea and EEZ About 130 coral islands and rocks China, Taiwan, Spratly Islands Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and No indigenous inhabitants. Islands and EEZ About 100 Brunei Scarborough Shoal China, Taiwan and Philippines Part of Spratly Islands claim 67 No Shoal and EEZ 1 (shoal) 44

47 Territories Involved states Maritime surface (Sq. Km.) Islands/rocks surface (Sq. Km) Population Type of claim (jurisdictions) Number of islands Japan, South 2 permanent 2 main Liancourt Rocks Korea and North ,31 people and Islands and EEZ Islands and Korea visitors 35 rocks China-Japan- Korea ECS-EEZ claimed zones China, Japan and South Korea No ECS of the three countries are overlapped - Taiwan EEZ China and Taiwan Yes China claims the territorial waters of Taiwan 5-6 Vietnam- Malaysia ECS claimed zones Vietnam and Malaysia No ECS of Malaysia is overlapped in the Vietnamese EEZ - Japan-Palau ECS claimed Japan and Palau No ECS of both countries are overlapped - 45

48 46

49 Mediterranean Sea. 47

50 Jurisdictional claims. Country Inland waters Territorial sea Contiguous zone Exclusive economic zone Continental shelf Other Albania Algeria (1) Croatia (2) Cyprus (2) Cyprus (turkish) Egypt France France/Spain (2) Gaza (2) Greece Israel

51 Country Inland waters Territorial sea Contiguous zone Exclusive economic zone Continental shelf Other Italy (3) Lebanon Libya Malta (1) Monaco (4) Montenegro Morocco Morocco/Spain (2) Slovenia (5) Spain (1) Syria Tunisia

52 Country Inland waters Territorial sea Contiguous zone Exclusive economic zone Continental shelf Other Turkey Uk (Cyprus) UK (Gibraltar) Total (1)Fisheries protection zone; (2)Indeterminate jurisdiction; (3)Ecological protection zone, (4)Adjacent zone; (5)Corridor. Source: Author based on DOALOS. 50

53 Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. 51

54 Maritime jurisdictions. Atlantic ocean. Countries Inland waters Atlantic ocean Territorial Contiguous sea zone EEZ Total Atlantic ocean Belize Colombia Costa Rica Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama Total

55 Maritime jurisdictions. Pacific ocean. Countries Inland waters Historical Bay Pacific ocean Territorial Contiguous sea zone EEZ Total Pacific ocean Colombia Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama Joint SA-HO-NI Total Source: Author based on DOALOS. 53

56 Islamic State (ISIS). 54

57 55

58 56

59 4. STATES AND THE SEA 57

60 4.1. Failed states and oceans. 58

61 Failed States. Country Index Country Index Somalia 114,93 Ivory Coast 103,60 Democratic Republic of the Congo 111,20 Guinea 101,85 Sudan 109,37 Pakistan 101,58 South Sudan 108,36 Nigeria 101,06 Chad 107,60 Guinea Bissau 99,18 Zimbabwe 106,32 Kenya 98,41 Afghanistan 105,99 Ethiopia 97,92 Haiti 104,95 Burundi 97,50 Yemen 104,82 Niger 96,93 Iraq 104,25 Uganda 96,52 Central African Republic 103,76 Myanmar 96,18 59

62 Country Index Country Index North Korea 95,50 Republic of the Congo 90,09 Eritrea 94,50 Iran 89,58 Syria 94,47 Rwanda 89,31 Liberia 93,31 Malawi 88,78 Cameroon 93,15 Cambodia 88,70 Nepal 92,96 Mauritania 87,55 East Timor 92,73 Togo 87,55 Bangladesh 92,24 Uzbekistan 87,50 Sri Lanka 92,22 Burkina Faso 87,39 Sierra Leone 90,45 Kyrgyzstan 87,36 Egypt 90,40 Equatorial Guinea 86,29 60

63 Country Index Country Index Zambia 85,89 Swaziland 83,51 Lebanon 85,84 Philippines 83,15 Tajikistan 85,72 Comoros 82,96 Solomon Islands 85,60 Madagascar 82,47 Laos 85,54 Mozambique 82,43 Angola 85,13 Bhutan 82,36 Libya 84,94 Palestine 82,18 Georgia 84,83 Bolivia 82,08 Colombia 84,44 Djibouti 83,83 Papua New Guinea 83,68 Source: Author based on The Fund for Peace. Fragile States Index

64 4.2. Maritime and landlocked states. 62

65 63

66 4.6. Maritime dimension of secessionist movements. 64

67 Secessionist movements. Scotland. Inland waters Territorial sea EEZ Extended continental shelf Scotland United Kingdom % 47,13 % 65,81% 100% Source: Author based on DOALOS. 65

68 66

69 Secessionist movements. Catalonia. Inland waters Territorial sea ZEE Extended continental shelf Catalonia Spain Catalonia - Spain 8,67 % 7,91 % 4,41 % 0% Catalonia - Spain (only Mediterranean Sea) Catalonia Mediterranean Sea 15,59 % 16,87 % 3,53 % 0% 0,68 % 1,72 % 5,20 % 0% Source: Author based on DOALOS. 67

70 68

71 Secessionist movements. Flanders. Inland waters Territorial sea ZEE Extended continental shelf Flanders % 100% - Belgium Source: Author based on DOALOS. 69

WORLD PRESS FREEDOM INDEX 2012

WORLD PRESS FREEDOM INDEX 2012 1 Finland -10,00 = - Norway -10,00 = 3 Estonia -9,00 - Netherlands -9,00 5 Austria -8,00 6 Iceland -7,00 - Luxembourg -7,00 8 Switzerland -6,20 9 Cape Verde -6,00 10 Canada