Travel & Tourism. Lebanon

Transcription

1 Travel & Tourism Economic Impact Lebanon 29

2 CHAIRMAN: Geoffrey J W Kent & Abercrombie & Kent VICE CHAIRMEN: Edouard Ettedgui Group Chief Executive Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group Maurice Flanagan CBE Executive Vice Emirates Airline & Group Michael Frenzel of the Executive Board TUI AG Mark Harms & Global Leisure Partners LLP Stephen P Holmes & Wyndham Worldwide Brett Tollman President The Travel Corporation EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE: Philippe Bourguignon Vice & Revolution Places Marilyn Carlson Nelson Carlson Alex Christou Managing Partner Accenture Jeff Clarke President & Travelport Andrew Cosslett InterContinental Hotels Group PLC Gabriel Escarrer Jaume Co-Vice & Sol Meliá Manuel Fernando Espírito Santo Espírito Santo Tourism Edward P Gilligan Vice American Express Company Pansy Ho Managing Director Shun Tak Holdings Limited Hubert Joly President & Carlson Richard R Kelley Outrigger Enterprises Group Gerald Lawless Executive Jumeirah Group Manfredi Lefebvre d Ovidio Silversea Cruises Gilles Pélisson Accor Charles Petruccelli President Global Travel Services American Express Company Christopher Rodrigues CBE VisitBritain Jeffrey C Rutledge President AIG Travel, Inc Jyotsna Suri Chairperson & Managing Director Bharat Hotels Ltd Jonathan M Tisch & Loews Hotels Vincent A Wolfington Global Alliance Advisors LLC Immediate Past, WTTC GLOBAL MEMBERS: Talal Al Bahar & Managing Director IFA Hotels & Resorts Mohammed Al Habbai Dubailand Eric Anderson President & Space Adventures Giovanni Angelini Executive Director Shangri-La Hotels & Resorts Ted J Balestreri & Cannery Row Company Simón P Barceló & Barceló Hotels & Resorts Raymond Bickson Managing Director Taj Hotels, Resorts and Palaces Giorgio Boscolo Boscolo Group Rattawadee Bualert President lebua Hotels & Resorts Co, Ltd Gabriele Burgio President & NH Hoteles Chris J Cahill Chief Operating Officer Fairmont Raffles Hotels International Jim Compton Executve Vice President, Marketing Continental Airlines Tony Fernandes Group Chief Executive Officer AirAsia Frank Fiskers President & Scandic Hotels Arthur de Haast Global Chief Executive Officer Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels James Hogan Etihad Airways Raimund Hosch President & Messe Berlin GmbH Miltos Kambourides Managing Partner Dolphin Capital Partners Larry Kellner & Continental Airlines Gary L Kessler President & Carey International Inc Dara Khosrowshahi President & Expedia Inc Tom Klein Group President Sabre Travel Network and Sabre Airline Executive Vice President Sabre Holdings Sir Nigel Knowles Joint DLA Piper Ali Kolaghassi Vice & Saraya Holdings RK Krishna Kumar Vice Taj Hotels, Resorts & Palaces Michael Latimer President & Oxford Properties Group Jabu Mabuza Tsogo Sun Group André Martinez, Global Lodging & Managing Director Morgan Stanley Khater Massaad RAK Investment Authority Geoff Muirhead CBE Group Chief Executive The Manchester Airports Group Christopher J Nassetta President & Hilton Hotels Corporation John M Noel Noel Group Chris O Donnell Chief Executive Officer Nakheel Deepak Ohri Chief Executive Officer lebua Hotels & Resorts Co, Ltd Frits D van Paasschen President & Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc Fernando Pinto TAP Portugal Wolfgang Prock-Schauer Chief Executive Officer Jet Airways India Ltd Bob Puccini The Puccini Group Duan Qiang Beijing Tourism Group David Radcliffe Chief Executive Hogg Robinson Group Jay Rasulo Walt Disney Parks and Resorts Marty Salfen General Manager Global Travel & Transportation Industry IBM Per Setterberg Global Refund Group Joe Sita Nakheel Hotels David Stein Franklyn Hotels & Resorts Khalid bin Sulayem Director General Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing Daniel Sullivan President Collette Vacations Hiromi Tagawa President & JTB Corp Yassin K Talhouni Zara Investment Holding Co Ltd Jaume Tàpies President Relais & Châteaux Robin Tauck President R Tauck & Partners LLC Kathleen Taylor President & Chief Operating Officer Four Seasons Hotels & Resorts José Antonio Tazón of the Board Amadeus IT Group SA John Ueberroth & Preferrred Hotel Group Matthew D Upchurch Virtuoso Willie Walsh Chief Executive British Airways plc Tim Zagat Co-Founder, Co-Chair & Zagat Survey LLC Sarmad Zok Chief Executive Officer Kingdom Hotel Investments HONORARY MEMBERS: André Jordan André Jordan Group Jonathan S Linen Adviser to the American Express Company Lord Marshall of Knightsbridge Pirelli UK plc Sir Frank Moore, AO FT Moore P/L Frank Olson of the Board The Hertz Corporation Gérard Pélisson Co-, Supervisory Board Accor Carl Ruderman Universal Media Tommaso Zanzotto President TZ Associates Ltd CHAIRMAN EMERITUS: James D Robinson III General Partner RRE Ventures WTTC ( ) IMMEDIATE PAST CHAIRMAN: Vincent A Wolfington Global Alliance Advisors LLC WTTC (24-27) FORMER CHAIRMEN: Sir Ian Prosser Retired InterContinental Hotels Group plc WTTC (21-23) Harvey Golub Retired & American Express Company WTTC ( ) Robert H Burns Robert H Burns Holdings Limited WTTC ( ) PRESIDENT & : Jean-Claude Baumgarten J W Marriott, Jr & Marriott International, Inc Mark P Frissora and The Hertz Corporation Jean Gabriel Pérès President & Mövenpick Hotels & Resorts Philip Wolf PhoCusWright, Inc Alan Parker CBE Chief Executive Whitbread plc Naresh Goyal Jet Airways India Ltd Dionísio Pestana Group Pestana Mei Yunxin Vice Beijing Tourism Group 1 March 29

3 THE WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL (WTTC), WHICH IS THE BUSINESS LEADERS FORUM FOR TRAVEL & TOURISM, HAS SPENT 2 YEARS DEVELOPING ITS ECONOMIC IMPACT RESEARCH FOR THE BENEFIT OF TRAVEL & TOURISM DECISION- MAKERS WHETHER IN THE PRIVATE OR PUBLIC SECTOR. THIS COMPREHENSIVE RESEARCH, WHICH DRAWS FROM MANY DIFFERENT SOURCES AND REPRESENTS A CONSIDERABLE INVESTMENT OVER TIME, USES THE FRAMEWORK OF TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTS (TSAS). Full TSAs take many years to develop, so WTTC s prime objective in producing these economic impact accounts is to provide on an annual basis consistent, reliable and comparable information to assess Travel & Tourism s current and likely future contribution to national economic activity and employment. And one of the main strengths of our research is that it is timely so it can inform and help drive urgent policy-making and investment decisions. This is particularly important for emerging economies that do not have the detailed data necessary to develop full TSAs. This 29 research, produced with our partner Oxford Economics, assesses the economic impact of Travel & Tourism for 181 countries. It measures spending on Travel & Tourism by households, businesses, governments and foreign visitors, in order to capture fully the economic contribution of both domestic and international tourism, thereby quantifying Travel & Tourism s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. According to the latest annual research, Travel & Tourism employed over 225 million people around the world and generated 9.6% of global GDP in 28. Despite occasional dips in the annual growth curve, the last decade has seen a rapid rise in Travel & Tourism. But, as is now widely recognised, it suffered a marked downturn in activity in the second half of 28. Indeed, by the end of the year, many countries were experiencing a contraction in Travel & Tourism demand, and global recession was having an increasing impact on the industry s performance even in emerging markets. One of the big challenges is to try to understand when the world economy and Travel & Tourism demand will rebound. And there are no quick answers, nor magic solutions. Our current indicators suggest that the downturn will continue through 29, as the deterioration in global economic conditions squeezes spending on Travel & Tourism by both households and businesses. International demand is likely to be under the most pressure, as world trade declines and more travellers cut costs by choosing to holiday in their home countries. And challenging conditions are forecast to continue into 21. Nevertheless, we remain extremely confident as to Travel & Tourism s longer-term future. Looking beyond the present economic crisis, the prospects for Travel & Tourism remain strong, led by renewed expansion in emerging countries both as tourism destinations and as an increasing source of international and domestic visitors not to mention the growing priority accorded by people in developed countries to leisure tourism. On this positive note, and building on the success of our research over the past 2 years, we are delighted to welcome you to the 29 edition of WTTC s The Economic Impact of Travel & Tourism. Jean-Claude Baumgarten President & World Travel & Tourism Council Geoffrey J W Kent, World Travel & Tourism Council and &, Abercrombie & Kent

4 CONTENTS THE ECONOMIC IMPACT of TRAVEL & TOURISM Key Facts at a Glance 3 Summary Economic Impact and Real Growth 4 Travel & Tourism s Economic Impact 6 National, Regional and World Summary Tables 7 Concepts & Structure 8 Travel & Tourism Satellite Account Gross Domestic Product 1 Employment 11 Total Demand 12 Visitor & Other Exports 13 Satellite Account Tables 14 Ranking and Range 16 General Macroeconomic Indicators 16 USE OF MATERIAL IS AUTHORISED, PROVIDED SOURCE IS ACKNOWLEDGED 1-2 Queen Victoria Terrace, Sovereign Court, London E1W 3HA, UK Tel: +44 () Fa x: +44 () Em a i l : enquiries@wttc.org.

5 29 1-year trend Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 28.1% KEY FACTS AT A GLANCE THE 29 TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMIC RESEARCH The contribution of Travel & Tourism to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to decline from 28.1% (LBP11,722. bn or US$7,775.8 mn) in 29 to 25.7% (LBP21,383.4 bn or US$14,184.7 mn) by % -7.% 37.7% Employment The contribution of the Travel & Tourism Economy to employment is expected to fall to 44, jobs in 29, 28.1% of total employment, or 1 in every 3.6 jobs to 468, jobs, 25.8% of total employment or 1 in every 3.9 jobs by 219. Growth Real GDP growth for the Travel & Tourism Economy is expected to be -7.% in 29 and to average 3.% per annum over the coming 1 years. Exports Export earnings from international visitors and tourism goods are expected to generate 37.7% of total exports (LBP1,324.4 bn or US$6,848.7 mn) in 29, growing (nominal terms) to LBP19,11.9 bn or US$12,677.2 mn (38.6% of total) in 219. World ranking (out of 181 countries) ABSOLUTE RELATIVE GROWTH size contribution to national economy forecast Ranking in Middle East (out of 12 countries) ABSOLUTE RELATIVE GROWTH size contribution to national economy forecast Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product (2 constant US$ mn) Travel & Tourism Employment (' jobs) 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Direct Industry T&T Economy as a whole Direct Industry T&T Economy as a whole THE WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL (WTTC) IS THE BUSINESS LEADERS' FORUM FOR TRAVEL & TOURISM WORKING WITH GOVERNMENTS TO RAISE AWARENESS OF THE IMPORTANCE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST GENERATOR OF WEALTH AND JOBS 29 World Travel & Tourism Council 1-2 QUEEN VICTORIA TERRACE, SOVEREIGN COURT, LONDON E1W 3HA, UNITED KINGDOM TEL: +44 () or +44 () FAX: +44 () enquiries@wttc.org.

6 ECONOMIC IMPACT IN 29 'S TRAVEL & TOURISM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE LBP11,722 BN (US$7,776 MN) OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (GDP). THE INDUSTRY'S DIRECT IMPACT INCLUDES: Direct Industry GDP Direct Industry Employment LBP 3,898 bn 15, (US$2,586 mn) equivalent to 9.3% of total GDP jobs representing 9.6% of total employment HOWEVER, SINCE TRAVEL & TOURISM TOUCHES ALL SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY, ITS REAL IMPACT IS EVEN GREATER. 'S TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY ACCOUNTS FOR: Economy GDP Economy Employment LBP 11,722 bn 44, (US$7,776 mn) equivalent to 28.1% of total GDP jobs representing 28.1% of total employment Exports, Services & Merchandise Capital Investment LBP 1,324 bn LBP 1,112 bn (US$6,849 mn) equivalent to 37.7% of total exports (US$738 mn) equivalent to 11.5% of total investment Government Expenditure LBP 571 bn (US$379 mn) equivalent to a 9.1% share 4

7 REAL GROWTH IN 29, TRAVEL & TOURISM IN IS FORECAST TO SEE REAL DECLINE OF: Direct Industry GDP Direct Industry Employment -8.6 % -1.5 % to LBP3,898 bn (US$2,586 mn) to 15, jobs Economy GDP Economy Employment -7. % -9.1 % to LBP11,722 bn (US$7,776 mn) to 44, jobs OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS, 'S TRAVEL & TOURISM IS EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE ANNUALISED REAL GROWTH OF: Direct Industry GDP Direct Industry Employment 3.1 %.7 % to LBP7,186 bn (US$4,767 mn) in 219 to 16,937 jobs in 219 Economy GDP Economy Employment 3. %.6 % to LBP21,383 bn (US$14,185 mn) in 219 to 468, jobs in 219 Demand - Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports - Travel & Tourism 3.7 % 3.2 % to LBP38,39 bn (US$25,412 mn) in 219 to LBP19,15,2 bn (US$12,614 mn) in 219 Capital Investment - Travel & Tourism Government Expenditure - Travel & Tourism 2.6 % 1.4 % to LBP1,952,75 bn (US$1,295 mn) in 219 to LBP892,61 bn (US$592 mn) in 219 5

8 ECONOMIC IMPACT TRAVEL & TOURISM (T&T) ENCOMPASSING TRANSPORT, ACCOMMODATION, CATERING, RECREATION AND SERVICES FOR VISITORS IS ONE OF THE WORLD S HIGHEST PRIORITY INDUSTRIES AND EMPLOYERS. GDP Lebanon - The Travel &Tourism Industry is expected to contribute directly 9.3% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 29 (LBP3,898.4 bn or US$2,586. mn), rising in nominal terms to LBP7,185.9 bn or US$4,766.7 mn (8.6% of total) by 219. The T&T Economy contribution (% of total) should decline from 28.1% (LBP11,722. bn or US$7,775.8 mn) to 25.7% (LBP21,383.4 bn or US$14,184.7 mn) in this same period. Middle East - The Travel & Tourism Industry is expected to post a direct GDP contribution of 2.7% in 29, while the Travel & Tourism Economy contribution will be 9.6%. Worldwide - In 29, the Travel & Tourism Industry should contribute 3.2% directly to worldwide GDP. The broader Travel & Tourism Economy should contribute 9.4% to world GDP in 29. GROWTH Lebanon - The Travel & Tourism Economy is expected to grow by 3.% per annum in real terms between 21 and 219. DEMAND Lebanon - In 29, Travel & Tourism is expected to post LBP19,562.2 bn (US$12,976.6 mn) of economic activity (Total Demand), growing to LBP38,39.2 bn (US$25,412.4 mn) by 219. Middle East - Travel & Tourism Demand is expected to reach US$241,881. mn in 29, growing to US$529,842. mn in 219. Worldwide - In 29, it is expected to post US$7,339,99 mn of economic activity (Total Demand) and this is forecast to grow to US$14,381,5 mn by 219. VISITOR EXPORTS Lebanon - Exports make up a very important share of Travel & Tourism's contribution to GDP. Of Lebanon's total exports, Travel & Tourism is expected to generate 37.7% (LBP1,324.4 bn or US$6,848.7 mn) in 29, increasing to LBP19,11.9 bn or US$12,677.2 mn (38.6% of total), in 219. Middle East - The Travel & Tourism Economy is expected to post average annualised gains of 4.3% between 21 and 219. Worldwide - Travel & Tourism is a high-growth activity, which is forecast to increase its total economic activity by 4.% worldwide in real terms over the next ten years. EMPLOYMENT Lebanon - Travel &Tourism Economy employment is estimated at 44, jobs in 29, 28.1% of total employment, or 1 in every 3.6 jobs. By 219, this should total 468, jobs, 25.8% of total employment or 1 in every 3.9 jobs. The 15, T&T Direct Industry jobs account for 9.6% of total employment in 27 and are forecast to total 161, jobs or 8.9% of the total by 219. Middle East - The Travel & Tourism Industry is expected to generate directly 1,78, jobs in 29 (3.1% of total employment), while the broader Travel & Tourism Economy will account for 5,13, jobs (9.% of total employment). Worldwide - Travel & Tourism is human resource intensive, creating quality jobs across the full employment spectrum. In 29, one in 13.1 jobs will be generated by the Travel & Tourism Economy. The Travel & Tourism Economy accounts for 7.6% of global employment. Today there are 77.3 million Travel & Tourism Direct Industry jobs and million jobs in the Travel & Tourism Economy, and these will rise to 97.8 million Travel & Tourism Direct Industry jobs and million Travel & Tourism Economy jobs by 219. Middle East - Travel & Tourism exports are expected to represent 13.4% of total exports in 29. Worldwide - Travel & Tourism is a major exporter, with inbound visitors injecting foreign exchange directly into the economy. CAPITAL INVESTMENT Lebanon - Travel & Tourism Capital Investment is estimated at LBP1,112. bn, US$737.7 mn or 11.5% of total investment in year 29. By 219, this should reach LBP1,952.8 bn, US$1,295.4 mn or 1.9% of total. Middle East - Travel & Tourism Capital Investment is estimated to total US$47,5.8 mn in 29, or 11.9% of total regional capital investment. Worldwide - Travel & Tourism is a catalyst for construction and manufacturing. In 29, the public and private sectors combined are expected to spend US$1,22,1. mn worldwide - 9.4% of total investment, rising to US$2,589,66. mn or 9.3% of the total, in 219. GOVERNMENT Lebanon - Government Travel & Tourism operating expenditures in Lebanon in 29 are expected to total LBP57.8 bn (US$378.6 mn), or 9.1% of total government spending. Middle East - Government Travel & Tourism operating expenditures are estimated to total US$6,823.9 mn in 29, or a 2.2% share. Worldwide - Travel & Tourism is both a generator and receiver of government funds. Globally, in 29, Travel & Tourism is expected to garner US$44,183. mn of government expenditures, or 3.9% of total expenditures. By 219, government spending on Travel & Tourism should increase to US$79,336. mn - 4.% of total government expenditure. 6

9 SUMMARY TABLES ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS LBP bn % of Total Growth 1 LBP bn % of Total Growth 2 Personal Travel & Tourism 6, , Business Travel , Government Expenditures Capital Investment 1, , Visitor Exports 1, , Other Exports T&T Demand 19, , Direct Industry GDP 3, , T&T Economy GDP 11, , Direct Industry Employment T&T Economy Employment real growth adjusted for inflation (%); annualised real growth adjusted for inflation (%); 3 ' jobs MIDDLE EAST US$ mn % of Total Growth 1 US$ mn % of Total Growth 2 Personal Travel & Tourism 7, , Business Travel 17, , Government Expenditures 6, , Capital Investment 47, , Visitor Exports 5, , Other Exports 49, , T&T Demand 241, , Direct Industry GDP 44, , T&T Economy GDP 158, , Direct Industry Employment 3 1, , T&T Economy Employment 3 5, , real growth adjusted for inflation (%); annualised real growth adjusted for inflation (%); 3 ' jobs WORLDWIDE US$ mn % of Total Growth 1 US$ mn % of Total Growth 2 Personal Travel & Tourism 2,99, ,574, Business Travel 745, ,375, Government Expenditures 44, , Capital Investment 1,22, ,589, Visitor Exports 1,79, ,13, Other Exports 9, ,1, T&T Demand 7,339, ,381, Direct Industry GDP 1,87, ,396, T&T Economy GDP 5,473, ,478, Direct Industry Employment 3 77, , T&T Economy Employment 3 219, , real growth adjusted for inflation (%); annualised real growth adjusted for inflation (%); 3 ' jobs 7

10 CONCEPTS & STRUCTURE In order to quantify the economic impact of Travel & Tourism, we use the framework of a simulated Tourism Satellite Account. The Travel & Tourism Satellite Account is based on a demand-side economic activity, because the industry does not produce or supply a homogeneous product or service as traditional industries (agriculture, electronics, steel, etc) do. DEMAND-SIDE ACCOUNTS LBP bn PERSONAL TRAVEL & TOURISM 6,834.2 More formally known as Travel & Tourism Personal Consumption, this category includes all personal spending by an economy's residents on Travel & Tourism services (lodging, transportation, entertainment, meals, financial services, etc) and goods (durable and non-durable) used for Travel & Tourism activites. Spending may occur before, during or after a trip. Spending covers all Travel & Tourism, outbound and domestic. TRAVEL & TOURISM CONSUMPTION BUSINESS TRAVEL 72.7 Formally known as Intermediate Consumption of Travel & Tourism or more simply business travel, this category of expenditures by government and industry includes spending on goods and services (transportation, accommodation, meals, entertainment, etc) for employee business travel purposes. Total Travel & Tourism expenditures made by and on behalf of visitors (goods and services) in the resident economy. GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES - Individual Formally known as Non-Market Services (Individual), this category includes expenditures (transfers or subsidies) made by government agencies to provide Travel & Tourism services directly linked to individual visitors such as cultural (eg art museums), recreational (eg national park) or clearance (eg immigration/customs) etc to visitors. VISITOR EXPORTS 1,271.6 Expenditures by international visitors on goods and services within the resident economy. 17,999.8 GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES - Collective Formally known as Non-Market Services (Collective), this category includes operating expenditures made by government agencies on services associated with Travel & Tourism, but not directly linked to any individual visitor, instead these expenditures are generally made on behalf of the 'community at large', such as tourism promotion, aviation, administration, security services and resort area sanitation services, etc. TRAVEL & TOURISM DEMAND CAPITAL INVESTMENT 1,112. Formally known as Capital Formation, this category includes capital expenditures by direct Travel & Tourism industry service providers and government agencies to provide facilities, equipment and infrastructure to visitors. The nominal aggregate of tourism activity in the resident economy. OTHER EXPORTS 52.9 Consumer goods (such as clothing, electronics or petrol) exported for ultimate sale to visitors, or capital goods (such as aircraft or cruise ships) exported for use by Travel & Tourism industry providers. 19,

11 Instead, Travel & Tourism is an industrial activity defined by the diverse collection of products (durables and non-durables) and services (transportation, accommodation, food and beverage, entertainment, government services, etc) that are delivered to visitors. There are two basic aggregates of demand (Travel & Tourism Consumption and Total Demand) and, by employing input/output modelling separately (large arrows) to these two aggregates, the Satellite Account is able to produce two different and complementary aggregates of Travel & Tourism Supply: the Travel & Tourism Industry and the Travel & Tourism Economy. The first captures the explicitly defined production-side industry contribution (ie direct impact only), for comparison with all other industries, while the second captures the broader economy-wide impact, direct and indirect, of Travel & Tourism. SUPPLY-SIDE ACCOUNTS LBP bn TRAVEL & TOURISM INDUSTRY SUPPLY 3,898.4 TRAVEL & TOURISM INDUSTRY GDP (Direct) ' jobs Direct Gross Domestic Product (also know as Value-Added) and Employment associated with Travel & Tourism Consumption. This is the explicitly defined Supply-side Industry contribution of Travel & Tourism that can be compared one-for-one with the GDP and Employment contribution of other industries in the economy. Establishment in this category include traditional Travel & Tourism providers such as airlines, hotels, car rental companies, etc. 6,344.3 TRAVEL & TOURISM INDUSTRY GDP (Indirect) Indirect Gross Domestic Product associated with Travel & Tourism Consumption. This is the upstream resident economy contribution which comes about from suppliers to the traditional Travel & Tourism industry. Establishments in this category include fuel and catering companies, laundry services, accounting firms, etc. 7,757.1 TRAVEL & TOURISM INDUSTRY IMPORTS The value of goods imported by direct and indirect Travel & Tourism Industry establishments. 17,999.8 TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY SUPPLY 11,722. ' jobs TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY GDP (Direct and Indirect) Direct and Indirect Gross Domestic Product (also know as Value-Added) and Employment associated with Travel & Tourism Demand. This is the broadest measure of Travel & Tourism's contribution to the resident economy. Establishments in this category include those described above as well as manufacturing, construction, government, etc. that are associated with Capital Investment, Government Services and Non- Visitor Exports. 7,84.1 TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY IMPORTS The value of goods imported by direct and indirect Travel & Tourism Economy establishments. 19,

12 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Lebanon's T&T Direct Industry is expected to contribute 9.3% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 29 (LBP3,898.4 bn or US$2,586. mn), rising in nominal terms to LBP7,185.9 bn or US$4,766.7 mn (8.6% of total) by 219. The T&T Economy contribution (% of total) should decline from 28.1% (LBP11,722. bn or US$7,775.8 mn) to 25.7% (LBP21,383.4 bn or US$14,184.7 mn) in this same period. TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNT COUNTRY REGION WORLD 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, ,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Economy GDP (2 constant US$ mn) (real growth, %) Direct Industry GDP T&T Economy GDP MIDDLE EAST v REGION Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Economy GDP (2 constant US$ bn) (real growth variance, %) Direct Industry GDP T&T Economy GDP WORLDWIDE v WORLDWIDE Travel & Tourism Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Economy GDP (2 constant US$ bn) (real growth variance, %) Direct Industry GDP T&T Economy GDP WTTC League Table Extract 29 WTTC League Table Extract 1-Yr Real Growth Travel & Tourism Economy GDP % of total GDP Travel & Tourism Economy GDP Annualised, % 1 19 Lebanon Jordan Cyprus Syria Jordan Tunisia Tunisia Egypt Greece Cyprus Egypt Turkey Syria Greece Italy Lebanon Turkey Israel Israel Italy 1.9 1

13 EMPLOYMENT Lebanon's 15, T&T Direct Industry jobs account for 9.6% of total employment in 29 and are forecast to total 161, jobs or 8.9% of the total by 219.The contribution of the Travel & Tourism Economy to employment is expected to fall to 44, jobs in 29, 28.1% of total employment, or 1 in every 3.6 jobs to 468, jobs, 25.8% of total employment or 1 in every 3.9 jobs by , 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Travel & Tourism Employment Travel & Tourism Economy Employment (' Jobs) (real growth, %) Direct Industry jobs MIDDLE EAST v REGION Travel & Tourism Employment Travel & Tourism Economy Employment (' Jobs) (real growth variance, %) Direct Industry jobs WORLDWIDE v WORLDWIDE Travel & Tourism Employment Travel & Tourism Economy Employment (' Jobs) (real growth variance, %) Direct Industry jobs T&T Economy jobs T&T Economy jobs T&T Economy jobs COUNTRY REGION WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNT WTTC League Table Extract 29 WTTC League Table Extract 1-Yr Real Growth Travel & Tourism Economy Employment % of total emp Travel & Tourism Economy Employment Annualised, % 19 Lebanon Syria Cyprus Jordan Greece Greece Jordan Turkey Tunisia Egypt Egypt Cyprus Syria Tunisia Italy Lebanon.6 97 Israel Italy Turkey Israel.2 11

14 TOTAL DEMAND Lebanon Travel & Tourism is expected to generate LBP19,562.2 bn (US$12,976.6 mn) of economic activity (Total Demand) in 29, growing (nominal terms) to LBP38,39.2 bn (US$25,412.4 mn) by 219. Total Demand is expected to decline by - 3.5% in 29 and by 3.7% per annum, in real terms, between 21 and Total Demand represents.22% of world market share. TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNT COUNTRY REGION WORLD Total Demand 29 Travel & Tourism Total Demand (real growth, %) Personal T&T % Business T&T % -6 Gov't Expenditures % Capital Investment % Visitor Exports % Other Exports -.27% v REGION MARKET SHARE OF MIDDLE EAST Travel & Tourism Total Demand Total Demand 29 (real growth variance, %) Lebanon - 6.5% -8 Rest of Region % WORLDWIDE v WORLDWIDE Total Demand 29 Travel & Tourism Total Demand (real growth variance, %) Lebanon -.22% Rest of World % WTTC League Table Extract 29 WTTC League Table Extract 1-Yr Real Growth Travel & Tourism Total Demand Real Growth % Travel & Tourism Total Demand Annualised, % 1 6 Syria Egypt Tunisia Turkey Egypt. 65 Syria Turkey Tunisia Israel Cyprus Greece Israel Lebanon Jordan Cyprus Lebanon Jordan Greece Italy Italy

15 VISITOR & OTHER EXPORT EARNINGS Visitor Exports play an important development role for the resident Travel & Tourism Economy. Lebanon's Travel & Tourism is expected to generate 37.7% of total exports (LBP1,324.4 bn or US$6,848.7 mn) in 29, growing (nominal terms) to LBP19,11.9 bn or US$12,677.2 mn (38.6% of total) in 219. Travel & Tourism Exports Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports (2 constant US$ mn) (real growth, %) 7, 35 6, , 2 4, 15 3, 1 5 2, 1, Visitor Exports Other Exports MIDDLE EAST v REGION Travel & Tourism Exports Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports (2 constant US$ mn) (real growth variance, %) Visitor Exports Other Exports WORLDWIDE v WORLDWIDE Travel & Tourism Exports Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports (2 constant US$ mn) (real growth variance, %) 25, , , 15 1, 1 5 5, Visitor Exports Other Exports COUNTRY REGION WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNT WTTC League Table Extract 29 WTTC League Table Extract 1-Yr Real Growth Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports % of total exports Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports Annualised, % 25 Lebanon Syria Greece Cyprus Jordan Tunisia Cyprus Egypt Egypt Jordan Syria Turkey Tunisia Greece Turkey Lebanon Italy Italy Israel Israel

16 SATELLITE ACCOUNT TABLES Travel & Tourism - LBP bn E 29F 219F Personal Travel & Tourism 5,34.6 4, , ,64.8 6, , ,772.6 Business Travel & Tourism ,58.4 Corporate ,442.1 Government Government Expenditures - Individual Visitor Exports 8,941. 8, ,22.3 8,41.3 1,858. 1, ,15.2 Travel & Tourism Consumption 14, , , , , , ,639.2 Government Expenditures - Collective Capital Investment ,112. 1,952.8 Other Exports Travel & Tourism Demand 16, , , , , , ,39.2 Travel & Tourism Direct Industry Employment (') Gross Domestic Product 3,42.2 3,398. 3, , , , ,185.9 Travel & Tourism Economy Employment (') Gross Domestic Product 1,184. 9, , , , , ,383.4 Travel & Tourism Accounts as % of National Accounts E 29F 219F Personal Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures Capital Investment Visitor & Other Exports Travel &Tourism Imports Travel & Tourism Direct Industry Employment Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Economy Employment Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Real Growth (per annum except 219 = 1-year annualised) E 29F 219F Personal Travel & Tourism Business Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures Capital Investment Visitor Exports Other Exports Travel & Tourism Consumption Travel & Tourism Demand Travel & Tourism Direct Industry Employment Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Economy Employment Gross Domestic Product E - Estimate; F - Forecast 14

17 SATELLITE ACCOUNT TABLES Travel & Tourism - US$ mn E 29F 219F Personal Travel & Tourism 3, , ,61.8 3, , , ,799.4 Business Travel & Tourism ,48.4 Corporate Government Government Expenditures - Individual Visitor Exports 5,931. 5,969. 5,441. 5,573. 7,22.7 6, ,613.7 Travel & Tourism Consumption 9,866. 9, , , , , ,641.3 Government Expenditures - Collective Capital Investment ,295.4 Other Exports Travel & Tourism Demand 1, , ,8. 1, , , ,412.4 Travel & Tourism Direct Industry Employment (') Gross Domestic Product 2, , ,145. 2, , ,586. 4,766.7 Travel & Tourism Economy Employment (') Gross Domestic Product 6, ,62. 6,28.8 6,387. 8,17.6 7, ,184.7 Travel & Tourism 2 Constant US$ mn E 29F 219F Personal Travel & Tourism 3,33. 3, , , ,731. 3, ,2.8 Business Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures - Individual Visitor Exports 5, , ,97.7 4, , , ,726.7 Travel & Tourism Consumption 9, ,17. 8, , , , ,481.8 Government Expenditures - Collective Capital Investment Other Exports Travel & Tourism Demand 1, , ,92.1 9, ,18. 1, ,566.7 Gross Domestic Product Travel & Tourism Industry 2, , , , ,353. 2, ,919.9 Travel & Tourism Economy 6,393 6, ,6.2 5, , , ,689. E - Estimate; F - Forecast Methodological Note 28 provided a clear demonstration of the complex environment in which Travel & Tourism operates, confirming the critical importance of timely information for policy- and decision-makers. And developments in 29 will no doubt serve to reinforce this argument. This explains why the economic impact research developed by WTTC and its partner Oxford Economics, which was designed to adapt to the changing needs of the Travel & Tourism industry and government leaders in the light of the fast-changing operating environment, is therefore an essential tool whether for private- or public-sector decision-makers. This comprehensive and comparative measure of the economic impact of Travel & Tourism developed by WTTC, which is highlighted in the Executive Summary and in the accompanying 181 individual country reports, is based on simulated Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) methodology. The methodology is analogous to that used for the production of national income accounts, following the key concepts of Tourism Satellite Accounting contained in the latest (28) United Nations' Recommended Methodological Framework (RMF). The RMF s Tourism Direct Gross Domestic Product (TDGDP) measure is broadly equivalent to the Travel & Tourism Direct Industry measures given by WTTC/Oxford Economics. Adding to this direct industry measure the value-added created indirectly in the industry's supply chain, plus investment and collective government and non-visitor export spending, one arrives at the broadest measure of the economic impact of Travel & Tourism Travel & Tourism Economy GDP. 15

18 TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNT RANKING AND RANGE Year 29 country rankings for Lebanon within world countries' list Lebanon Absolute Size Relative Size Growth 1 Absolute Size Relative Size Growth 2 Personal Travel & Tourism Business Travel Government Expenditures Capital Investment Visitor Exports Other Exports Travel & Tourism Demand Direct Industry GDP T&T Economy GDP Direct Industry Employment T&T Economy Employment real growth adjusted for inflation (%); annualised real growth adjusted for inflation (%) Total 181 countries or 13 regions (largest/highest/best is number 1; smallest/lowest/worst is number 181 or 13; is aggregate region no ranking GENERAL MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS The following charts illustrate how Travel & Tourism growth follows or varies from general macroeconomic growth for various indicators. The bottom three charts illustrate information related to international visitor arrivals Gross Domestic Product (US$ mn) T&T Economy GDP Total GDP T&T Employment Total Employment T&T Exports Total Exports Personal Consumption (US$ mn) Visitor Markets Index (1988=1) Employment (' of jobs) Capital Investment (US$ mn) International Visitor Arrivals (') Exports (US$ mn) Government Expenditure (US$ mn) T&T Personal Total Personal T&T Government Total Government Consumption Consumption T&T Capital Investment Total Capital Investment Expenditure Expenditure International Visitor Average Spend (US$)

19 The World Travel & Tourism Council is the forum for business leaders in the Travel & Tourism industry. With Chairs and Chief Executives of the world s foremost 1 Travel & Tourism companies as its Members, WTTC has a unique mandate and overview on all matters related to Travel & Tourism. WTTC works to raise awareness of Travel & Tourism as one of the world s largest industries, employing over 225 million people and generating 9.6% of global GDP in 28. Together with its research partner, Oxford Economics, WTTC produces comprehensive reports on an annual basis with updates whenever required to quantify, compare and forecast the economic impact of Travel & Tourism on 181 economies around the world. It also publishes an Executive Summary highlighting global trends. To download one-page summaries, the full reports or spreadsheets, visit Assisting WTTC to provide tools for analysis, benchmarking, forecasting and planning Over the last 25 years Oxford Economics has built a diverse and loyal client base of over 3 organisations worldwide, including international organisations, governments, central banks, and both large and small businesses. Headquartered in Oxford, England, with offices in London, Belfast, Philadelphia and Basel, Oxford Economics employs over 5 full-time, highly qualified, economists and data specialists, while maintaining links with a network of economists in universities worldwide. For more information please take advantage of a free trial on our website, or contact John Gaster, Oxford Economics, Abbey House, 121 St Aldates, Oxford, OX1 1HB, UK. Tel: +44 () ; jrgaster@oxfordeconomics.com

20 1-2 Qu e e n Victoria Te r r a c e So v e r e i g n Co u r t Lo n d o n E1W 3HA, UK Tel: +44 () Fax: +44 () enquiries@wttc.org