Executive Summary TRAVEL & TOURISM CLIMBING TO NEW HEIGHTS. The 2006 Travel & Tourism Economic Research

Transcription

1 Executive Summary TRAVEL & TOURISM CLIMBING TO NEW HEIGHTS The 2006 Travel & Tourism Economic Research

2 CHAIRMAN: Vincent A. Wolfington Emeritus Carey International, Inc VICE CHAIRMAN: Jonathan S Linen Vice American Express Company EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE: Peter Armstrong President & CEO Rocky Mountaineer Railtours Alex Christou Managing Partner Accenture Andrew Cosslett CEO InterContinental Hotels Group PLC Sebastián Escarrer Vice Sol Meliá Manuel Fernando Espírito Santo Espírito Santo Tourism Edouard Ettedgui Group Chief Executive Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group Maurice Flanagan CBE Vice & Group President The Emirates Group Michael Frenzel TUI AG Stephen P Holmes Vice Cendant Corporation Richard R Kelley Outrigger Enterprises, Inc Geoffrey J W Kent & CEO Abercrombie & Kent J W Marriott, Jr & CEO Marriott International, Inc David Michels Chief Executive Hilton Group plc Hilton International Curtis Nelson President & COO Carlson Companies Mike Ness President The Travel Corporation P R S Oberoi The Oberoi Group Alan Parker Chief Executive Whitbread PLC Gilles Pélisson CEO Accor Lalit Suri & Managing Director Bharat Hotels Ltd Jonathan Tisch & CEO Loews Hotels GLOBAL MEMBERS: Giovanni Angelini CEO & Managing Director Shangri-La Hotels & Resorts Ted Balestreri & CEO Cannery Row Company Simón Barceló Vadell CEO Barceló Hotels and Resorts Henrik Bartl Managing Director & Head of Real Estate Structured Finance Aareal Bank AG Raymond Bickson Managing Director The Taj Group of Hotels Marilyn Carlson Nelson & CEO Carlson Companies Jennie Chua President & CEO Raffles Holdings Ltd David Clifton Managing Director, Europe & Asia Interval International JimCompton Senior VP, Marketing Continental Airlines Fernando Conte & CEO Iberia, Airlines of Spain Robert Darbelnet President & CEO AAA Rakesh Gangwal, President & CEO Worldspan Laurence Geller & CEO Strategic Hotel Capital Naresh Goyal Jet Airways Stelios Haji-Ioannou & Founder easygroup (UK) Ltd. Arthur de Haast Global Chief Executive Officer Jones Lang Lasalle Hotels Pansy Ho Managing Director Shun Tak Holdings Limited Brent Hoberman Co-Founder & CEO lastminute.com James Hogan President & Chief Executive Gulf Air Grant Kelley CEO, Colony Capital Asia Raffles International Larry Kellner & CEO Continental Airlines Dara Khosrowshahi President & CEO Expedia Inc Nigel Knowles Joint CEO DLA Piper Rudnick Gray Cary J T Kuhlman CEO One&Only Resorts Krishna Kumar Vice The Taj Group of Hotels Gerald Lawless Chief Executive Jumeirah International Manfredi Lefebvre d Ovidio Silversea Cruises Manuel Martin Partner CyberDodo Productions Ltd Khater Massaad CEO Al Hamra Hotels Management Est Paul McManus President & CEO The Leading Hotels of the World Armin Meier President & CEO Kuoni Travel Holding Ltd Alan Mulally Executive Vice President The Boeing Company Devin J Murphy President & CEO Carey International, Inc John M Noel President & CEO The Noel Group Tom Nutley Reed Travel Exhibitions Jean Gabriel Pérès President & CEO Mövenpick Hotels & Resorts Dionisio Pestana Group Pestana Fernando Pinto CEO TAP Air Portugal Nancy Poor Senior Vice President, Owner Relations Cendant Hotel Group Wolfgang Prock-Schauer Chief Executive Officer Jet Airways Bob Puccini CEO & President The Puccini Group Duan Qiang Beijing Tourism Group David Radcliffe Chief Executive Hogg Robinson plc Kurt Ritter President & CEO Rezidor SAS Hospitality Christopher Rodrigues CEO Visa International Peter Rogers President & CEO Diners Club International Carl Ruderman Universal Media Jeffrey Rutledge Senior VP, Worldwide Travel Insurance & Related Services American International Group, Inc Mary Salfen General Manager, Global Travel & Transportation Industry IBM Per Setterberg CEO Global Refund Group Eric J Speck Executive Vice President &Chief Marketing Officer Sabre Holdings Corporation Jean-Cyril Spinetta & CEO Air France David Stein The Stein Group Barry Sternlicht and CEO Starwood Capital Group Ron Stringfellow CEO Tsogo Sun Group Ian Swain President Swain Tours Jaume Tàpies President Relais & Châteaux Andrew C Taylor President & CEO Enterprise Rent-a-Car Kathleen Taylor President, Worldwide Business Operations Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts José Antonio Tazón President & CEO Amadeus Global Travel Distribution Jeffrey Toffler Coventry Partners Simon Vincent CEO Opodo Daniela Wagner Managing Director EMEA, Consumer Travel Services International Markets Cendant Travel Distribution Services Willie Walsh Chief Executive British Airways plc James Wilson Chief Executive Officer Nakheel Co LLC Philip Wolf CEO PhoCusWright, Inc. Peter Yesawich & CEO Yesawich, Pepperdine, Brown & Russell Mei Yunxin President Beijing Tourism Group Sarmad Zok Chief Executive Officer Kingdom Hotel Investments HONORARY MEMBERS: André Jordan André Jordan Group Lord Marshall of Knightsbridge Pirelli UK plc Sir Frank Moore, AO Taylor Byrne Tourism Group Frank Olson of the Board The Hertz Corporation Gérard Pélisson Co-, Supervisory Board Accor SA Henry Silverman Cendant Corporation Tommaso Zanzotto President TZ Associates Ltd CHAIRMAN EMERITUS: James D Robinson III General Partner RRE Ventures WTTC ( ) IMMEDIATE PAST CHAIRMAN: Sir Ian Prosser Retired InterContinental Hotels Group WTTC ( ) FORMER CHAIRMEN Harvey Golub Retired & CEO American Express Co WTTC ( ) Robert H. Burns Robert H Burns Holdings Limited WTTC ( ) PRESIDENT: Jean-Claude Baumgarten 24 February 2006

3 World The 2006 Travel & Tourism Economic Research TOTAL DEMAND World Travel & Tourism is expected to generate US$6,477.2 bn of economic activity (Total Demand) in 2006, growing (nominal terms) to US$12,118.6 bn by Total Demand is expected to grow by 4.6% in 2006 and by 4.2% per annum, in real terms, between 2007 and Total Demand represents 100.0% of world market share. WORLD MARKET SHARE WORLD RANKING (out of 174 Countries) % World % % 60.00% 100.0% % 20.00% of world market 0.00% ABSOLUTE size RELATIVE contribution to national economy GROWTH forecast GDP - Contribution of Travel & Tourism to an Economy's GDP The World's T&T Industry is expected to contribute 3.6% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2006 (US$1,754.5 bn), rising in nominal terms to US$2,969.4 bn (3.6% of total) by The T&T Economy contribution (percent of total) should rise from 10.3% (US$4,963.8 bn) to 10.9% (US$8,971.6 bn) in this same period. EMPLOYMENT - Number of Jobs Generated by Travel & Tourism World T&T Economy employment is estimated at 234,305,000 jobs in 2006, 8.7% of total employment, or 1 in every 11.5 jobs. By 2016, this should total 279,347,000 jobs, 9.0% of total employment or 1 in every 11.1 jobs. The 76,729,000 T&T Industry jobs account for 2.8% of total employment in 2006 and are forecast to total 89,485,000 jobs or 2.9% of the total by VISITOR EXPORTS - Foreign Visitor Spending in an Economy World Travel & Tourism is expected to generate 11.8% of total exports (US$1,646.2 bn) in 2006, growing (nominal terms) to US$3,468.4 bn (10.9% of total) in PERSONAL TRAVEL & TOURISM - Amount Spent on T&T by Residents World Personal Travel & Tourism is estimated at US$2,844.7 bn or 9.5% of total personal consumption in year By 2016, this should reach US$4,916.3 bn or 9.8% of total consumption. World Business Travel is estimated at US$672.5 bn in year By 2016, this should reach US$1,190.3 bn. CAPITAL INVESTMENT - T&T Capital Expenditures by Public and Private Sectors World Travel & Tourism Capital Investment is estimated at US$1,010.7 bn or 9.3% of total investment in year By 2016, this should reach US$2,059.8 bn or 9.6% of total. GOVT EXPENDITURES - Spending by Govts on T&T Industry and Visitors Government Travel & Tourism operating expenditures in World in 2006 are expected to total US$300.2 bn or 3.8% of total government spending. In 2016, this spending is forecast to total US$480.9 bn, or 4.0% of total government spending. GDP* EMPLOYMENT* VISITOR EXPORTS PERSONAL T&T CAPITAL INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE OUTLOOK FOR 2006 (Real Growth) H H H H H H 4.8% 4.4% 6.5% 3.7% 4.9% 2.2% OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS (Real Growth per Annum ) H H H H H H 3.7% 1.8% 4.9% 3.4% 4.6% 2.6% THE WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL (WTTC) IS THE BUSINESS LEADERS FORUM FOR TRAVEL & TOURISM, WORKING WITH GOVERNMENTS TO RAISE AWARENESS OF THE IMPORTANCE OF THE WORLD S LARGEST GENERATOR OF WEALTH AND JOBS WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL 1-2 QUEEN VICTORIA TERRACE, SOVEREIGN COURT, LONDON E1W 3HA, UNITED KINGDOM TEL: +44 (0) or + 44 (0) FAX: +44 (0) or + 44 (0) enquiries@wttc.org

4 Each year the World Travel & Tourism Council, together with its research partner Oxford Economic Forecasting, produces comprehensive reports that quantify and forecast the economic impact of Travel & Tourism for 174 economies and the world. To download one page summaries, the full reports or spreadsheets visit Special Country Reports for select economies are also available online. In addition to an economic analysis / forecast of Travel & Tourism, these reports also set out WTTC's policy recommendations that we believe will help, if addressed, to realize the potential benefits of Travel & Tourism, ensuring longer-term sustainable development and spreading the benefits across all levels of the economy and society.

5 THE WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL (WTTC) IS THE BUSINESS LEADERS FORUM FOR TRAVEL & TOURISM, WORKING WITH GOVERNMENTS TO RAISE AWARENESS OF THE IMPORTANCE OF THE WORLD S LARGEST GENERATOR OF WEALTH AND JOBS. Travel & Tourism Satellite Accounting the standardized United Nations measurement of Travel & Tourism s economic impact on an economy s personal consumption, business spending, capital investment, government expenditures, gross domestic product and employment is perhaps the most important recent development in the quest for recognizing Travel & Tourism s contribution and future potential. With this 2006 edition of Tourism Satellite Accounting research, produced by its research team at Oxford Economic Forecasting, WTTC is thrilled to join efforts with its new global sponsor Accenture to strengthen and broaden the scope of its research and provide the resources to reach out to a wider audience of stakeholders who share the quest for solid, credible and professional information that can aid in public and private sector decision making. Joining forces with Accenture, one of the world s leading professional services firms, will allow WTTC to take this vital industry research to the next level and provide even better and more detailed information covering 174 countries around the globe. In fact, significant strides have already been made with this 2006 edition to significantly improve the estimates and forecasts for business travel and create newly detailed international visitor demand forecasts based on a weighted grouping of major visitor markets. WTTC and Accenture have also planned a series of events to be held around the world over the coming months to discuss and debate the economics and policy issues which impact the future potential. Finally, while we will continue to be relentless in our long-term pursuit of better and more reliable data sources and econometric modeling techniques that will capture the true impact of Travel & Tourism and the outlook for growth, we will also continue to produce and communicate ad-hoc real-time analysis that can be used to understand the severity and longevity of real-time shocks to the Travel & Tourism economy such as the 2005 bombings in London, the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004 or SARS in WTTC is very proud to join forces with Accenture and build on the success of these past fifteen years of research. Welcome to the 2006 edition of WTTC s Travel & Tourism Satellite Accounting Research, we re climbing to new heights. Jean-Claude Baumgarten President, World Travel & Tourism Council Vincent A. Wolfington, World Travel & Tourism Council Emeritus, Carey International, Inc.

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7 CONTENTS TRAVEL & TOURISM CLIMBING TO NEW HEIGHTS TRAVEL & TOURISM S ECONOMIC IMPACT...6 NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND WORLD SUMMARY TABLES...7 TSA CONCEPTS & STRUCTURE...8 TRAVEL & TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNT TOP TEN TABLES...10 APPENDICES WORLD AT A GLANCE...23 TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTING...26 WTTC S APPROACH TO TSA RESEARCH...27 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...29 Use of Material is Authorized, Provided Source is Acknowledged 1-2 Queen Victoria Terrace, Sovereign Court, London E1W 3HA, United Kingdom, Tel or , Fax or ,

8 TRAVEL & TOURISM'S ECONOMIC IMPACT TRAVEL & TOURISM ENCOMPASSING TRANSPORT, ACCOMMODATION, CATERING, RECREATION AND SERVICES FOR VISITORS IS ONE OF THE WORLD S HIGHEST PRIORITY INDUSTRIES AND EMPLOYERS. DEMAND In World, in 2006, Travel & Tourism is expected to post US$6,477.2 bn of economic activity (Total Demand), growing to US$12,118.6 bn by GDP The World's T&T Industry is expected to contribute 3.6% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2006 (US$1,754.5 bn), rising in nominal terms to US$2,969.4 bn (3.6% of total) by The T&T Economy contribution (percent of total) should rise from 10.3% (US$4,963.8 bn) to 10.9% (US$8,971.6 bn) in this same period. GROWTH For World, Travel & Tourism activity is expected to grow by 4.2% per annum in real terms between 2007 and VISITOR EXPORTS In World, exports make up a very important share of Travel & Tourism's contribution to GDP. Of total World exports, Travel & Tourism is expected to generate 11.8% (US$1,646.2 bn) in 2006, increasing to US$3,468.4 bn (10.9% of total), in CAPITAL INVESTMENT Travel & Tourism is a catalyst for construction and manufacturing. In 2006, the public and private sectors combined are expected to spend US$1,010.7 bn on new Travel & Tourism capital investment worldwide - 9.3% of total investment - rising to US$2,059.8 bn, or 9.6% of the total, in GOVERNMENT Travel & Tourism is both a generator and receiver of government funds. Globally, in 2006, Travel & Tourism is expected to garner US$300.2 bn of government expenditures, or 3.8% of total expenditures. By 2016, government spending on Travel & Tourism should increase to US$480.9 bn - 4.0% of total government expenditure. EMPLOYMENT World T&T Economy employment is estimated at 234,305,000 jobs in 2006, 8.7% of total employment, or 1 in every 11.5 jobs. By 2016, this should total 279,347,000 jobs, 9.0% of total employment or 1 in every 11.1 jobs. The 76,729,000 T&T Industry jobs account for 2.8% of total employment in 2006 and are forecast to total 89,485,000 jobs or 2.9% of the total by

9 NATIONAL, REGIONAL, AND WORLD SUMMARY TABLES WORLD ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS World US$ bn % of Tot Growth 1 US$ bn % of Tot Growth 2 Personal Travel & Tourism 2, , Business Travel , Government Expenditures Capital Investment 1, , Visitor Exports , Other Exports , Travel & Tourism Demand 6, , T&T Industry GDP 1, , T&T Economy GDP 4, , T&T Industry Employment 76, , T&T Economy Employment 234, , Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation (%); Annualized Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation (%); '000 of Jobs WORLD ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS World US$ bn % of Tot Growth 1 US$ bn % of Tot Growth 2 Personal Travel & Tourism 2, , Business Travel , Government Expenditures Capital Investment 1, , Visitor Exports , Other Exports , Travel & Tourism Demand 6, , T&T Industry GDP 1, , T&T Economy GDP 4, , T&T Industry Employment 76, , T&T Economy Employment 234, , Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation (%); Annualized Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation (%); '000 of Jobs WORLD ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS World US$ bn % of Tot Growth 1 US$ bn % of Tot Growth 2 Personal Travel & Tourism 2, , Business Travel , Government Expenditures Capital Investment 1, , Visitor Exports , Other Exports , Travel & Tourism Demand 6, , T&T Industry GDP 1, , T&T Economy GDP 4, , T&T Industry Employment 76, , T&T Economy Employment 234, , Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation (%); Annualized Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation (%); '000 of Jobs 7

10 TSA CONCEPTS & STRUCTURE The Travel & Tourism Satellite Account is based on a demand-side concept of economic activity, because the industry does not produce or supply a homogeneous product or service like traditional industries (agriculture, electronics, steel, etc). Instead, Travel & Tourism is an industrial activity defined by the diverse collection of products (durables and non-durables) and services (transportation, accommodation, food and beverage, entertainment, government services, etc) that are delivered to visitors. There are two basic aggregates of demand (Travel & Tourism Consumption and Total Demand) and by employing input/output modelling separately (large arrows) to these two aggregates the Satellite Account is able to produce two different and complementary aggregates of Travel & Tourism Supply: the Travel & Tourism Industry and the Travel & Tourism Economy. The first captures the explicitly defined production-side industry contribution (ie direct impact only), for comparison with all other industries, while the second captures the broader economy-wide impact, direct and indirect, of Travel & Tourism. Demand Side Accounts US$ bn PERSONAL TRAVEL & TOURISM 2,844.7 More formally known as Travel & Tourism Personal Consumption, this category includes all personal spending by an economy's residents on Travel & Tourism services (lodging, transportation, entertainment, meals, financial services, etc) and goods (durable and nondurable) used for Travel & Tourism activities. Spending may occur before, during or after a trip. Spending covers all Travel & Tourism, outbound and domestic. TRAVEL & TOURISM CONSUMPTION BUSINESS TRAVEL Formally know as Intermediate Consumption of Travel & Tourism or more simply business travel, this category of expenditures by government and industry includes spending on goods and services (transportation, accommodation, meals, entertainment, etc) for employee business travel purposes. Total Travel & Tourism expenditures made by and on behalf of visitors (goods and services) in the resident economy. GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES (INDIVIDUAL) Formally known as Non-Market Services (Individual), this category includes expenditures (transfers or subsidies) made by government agencies to provide Travel & Tourism services such as cultural (eg. art museums), recreational (eg national park) or clearance (eg immigration/ customs) etc to visitors. VISITOR EXPORTS ,542.6 Expenditures by international visitors on goods and services within the resident economy. GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES (COLLECTIVE) Formally known as Non-Market Services (Collective), this category includes operating expenditures made by government agencies on services associated with Travel & Tourism, but not directly linked to any individual visitor, instead these expenditures are generally made on behalf of the 'community at large', such as tourism promotion, aviation administration, security services and resort area sanitation services, etc. TRAVEL & TOURISM DEMAND CAPITAL INVESTMENT 1,010.7 Formally known as Capital Formation, this category includes capital expenditures by direct Travel & Tourism industry service providers and government agencies to provide facilities, equipment and infrastructure to visitors. The nominal aggregate of tourism activity in the resident economy. EXPORTS (NON-VISITOR) Consumer goods (such as clothing, electronics or petrol) exported for ultimate sale to visitors, or Capital goods (such as aircraft or cruise ships) exported for use by Travel & Tourism industry providers. 6,

11 Supply Side Accounts US$ bn TRAVEL & TOURISM INDUSTRY SUPPLY 1,754.5 TRAVEL & TOURISM INDUSTRY GDP (DIRECT) '000s of jobs 76,728.7 Direct Gross Domestic Product (also know as Value-Added) and Employment associated with Travel & Tourism Consumption. This is the explicitly defined Supply-side industry contribution of Travel & Tourism that can be compared one-for-one with the GDP and Employment contribution of other industries in the economy. Establishments in this category include traditional Travel & Tourism providers such as airlines, hotels, car rental companies, etc. Total Travel & Tourism Industry supply. 1,605.4 TRAVEL & TOURISM INDUSTRY GDP (INDIRECT) Indirect Gross Domestic Product associated with Travel & Tourism Consumption. This is the upstream resident economy contribution which comes about from suppliers to the traditional Travel & Tourism industry. Establishments in this category include fuel and catering companies, laundry services, accounting firms, etc. 1,182.8 TRAVEL & TOURISM INDUSTRY IMPORTS The value of goods imported by direct and indirect Travel & Tourism Industry establishments. 4,542.6 TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY SUPPLY 4,963.8 '000s of jobs 234,304.5 TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY GDP (DIRECT AND INDIRECT) Direct and Indirect Gross Domestic Product (also know as Value-Added) and Employment associated with Travel & Tourism Demand. This is the broadest measure of Travel & Tourism's contribution to the resident economy. Establishments in this category include those described above as well as manufacturing, construction, government, etc that are associated with Capital Investment, Government Services and Non-Visitor Exports. Total Travel & Tourism Economy supply. 1,513.4 TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY IMPORTS The value of goods imported by direct and indirect Travel & Tourism Economy establishments. 6,

12 TOP TEN TABLES What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (absolute terms) on Personal Travel & Tourism in 2006? What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (relative terms) on Personal Travel & Tourism in 2006? Personal Travel & Tourism, 2006 Personal Travel & Tourism, 2006 (% of Total Personal Consumption) 1 United States 861, British Virgin Islands Japan 293, Maldives Germany 185, Qatar United Kingdom 168, Antigua and Barbuda France 142, Aruba Italy 109, Bahamas China 99, Luxembourg Spain 96, Austria Canada 83, Macau Mexico 71, Bahrain 16.9 What countries are expected to grow their Personal Travel & Tourism fastest in 2006? What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (absolute terms) on Personal Travel & Tourism in 2016? Personal Travel & Tourism, 2006 (% Real Growth) Personal Travel & Tourism, Croatia United States 1,437, China Japan 508, Bahrain China 405, Madagascar Germany 257, Latvia United Kingdom 228, Albania France 210, Macau Italy 158, Yugoslavia Spain 155, Cape Verde Mexico 122, Sudan Canada 120,827.7 What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (relative terms) on Personal Travel & Tourism in 2016? What countries are expected to grow their Personal Travel & Tourism fastest between ? Personal Travel & Tourism, 2016 (% of Total Personal Consumption) Personal Travel & Tourism, (% Annualized Real Growth) 1 British Virgin Islands China Maldives Maldives Qatar Chad Antigua and Barbuda Latvia Aruba Sudan Bahamas Romania Luxembourg Libya Seychelles Vietnam Macau Algeria Singapore Estonia

13 TOP TEN TABLES What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (absolute terms) on Business Travel in 2006? What countries are expected to grow their Business Travel fastest in 2006? Business Travel, 2006 Business Travel, 2006 (% Real Growth) 1 United States 173, Macau Japan 66, China Germany 43, Madagascar United Kingdom 41, Latvia China 35, Bahrain Italy 32, Russian Federation France 32, Kenya Canada 15, Cape Verde Spain 15, Papua New Guinea Brazil 12, Libya 17.0 What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (absolute terms) on Business Travel in 2016? What countries are expected to grow their Business Travel fastest between ? Business Travel, 2016 Business Travel, (% Annualized Real Growth) 1 United States 283, China China 146, Chad Japan 112, Algeria Germany 60, Latvia United Kingdom 55, Sudan France 46, India Italy 45, Iran Spain 33, Vietnam Canada 23, Albania Korea, Republic of 19, Laos 6.2 What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (absolute terms) on Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures in 2006? What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (relative terms) on Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures in 2006? Government Expenditures, 2006 Government Expenditures, 2006 (% of Total Government Expenditures) 1 United States 103, Antigua and Barbuda Japan 35, Cayman Islands France 16, British Virgin Islands Spain 14, Seychelles United Kingdom 14, Dominican Republic Italy 12, Guadeloupe Germany 11, Virgin Islands Canada 9, Other Oceania China 9, Bermuda Australia 4, Saint Lucia

14 TOP TEN TABLES & Tourism Government Expenditures fastest in 2006? What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (absolute terms) on Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures in 2016? Government Expenditures, 2006 (% Real Growth) Government Expenditures, Maldives United States 174, Cape Verde Japan 59, Benin China 23, Iran France 21, Sudan Spain 21, Venezuela United Kingdom 19, Malawi Italy 17, Sri Lanka Canada 14, Laos Germany 14, Pakistan Mexico 7,310.1 What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (relative terms) on Travel & Tourism Government Expenditures in 2016? & Tourism Government Expenditures fastest between ? Government Expenditures, 2016 (% of Total Government Expenditures) Government Expenditures, (% Annualized Real Growth) 1 Antigua and Barbuda Sao Tome and Principe Cayman Islands Libya British Virgin Islands Sudan Seychelles Chad Dominican Republic Laos Guadeloupe Saudi Arabia Virgin Islands India Other Oceania Pakistan Bermuda Bangladesh Saint Lucia Congo, Democratic Republic 5.8 What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (absolute terms) on Travel & Tourism Capital Investment in 2006? What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (relative terms) on Travel & Tourism Capital Investment in 2006? Capital Investment, 2006 Capital Investment, 2006 (% of Total Capital Investment) 1 United States 281, Macau China 135, Other Oceania Japan 55, Aruba Spain 48, Barbados United Kingdom 33, Virgin Islands France 30, Anguilla Italy 28, Antigua and Barbuda Germany 27, British Virgin Islands Australia 23, Cayman Islands Korea, Republic of 22, Saint Lucia

15 TOP TEN TABLES & Tourism Capital Investment fastest in 2006? What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (absolute terms) on Travel & Tourism Capital Investment in 2016? Capital Investment, 2006 (% Real Growth) Capital Investment, Bahrain China 475, China United States 459, Guinea Spain 149, Turkey Japan 89, Albania Mexico 60, Qatar Russian Federation 50, Venezuela United Kingdom 47, United Arab Emirates France 41, Hong Kong Korea, Republic of 40, Uruguay Germany 40,206.2 What countries are expected to spend the largest amount (relative terms) on Travel & Tourism Capital Investment in 2016? & Tourism Capital Investment fastest between ? Capital Investment, 2016 (% of Total Capital Investment) Capital Investment, (% Annualized Real Growth) 1 Aruba Spain Other Oceania Russian Federation Macau Mexico Barbados China Antigua and Barbuda Hong Kong Virgin Islands India Anguilla Libya British Virgin Islands Montenegro Cayman Islands Norway Saint Lucia Bahrain 6.9 What countries are expected to earn the largest amount (absolute terms) on Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports in 2006? What countries are expected to earn the largest amount (relative terms) on Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports in 2006? Visitor Exports, 2006 Visitor Exports, 2006 (% of Total Exports) 1 United States 137, Anguilla France 54, Antigua and Barbuda Spain 54, Vanuatu United Kingdom 41, Sao Tome and Principe Italy 41, Macau Germany 40, Bahamas China 36, Saint Lucia Turkey 22, Maldives Australia 22, St Vincent and the Grenadines Austria 21, Barbados

16 TOP TEN TABLES & Tourism Visitor Exports fastest in 2006? What countries are expected to earn the largest amount (absolute terms) on Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports in 2016? Visitor Exports, 2006 (% Real Growth) Visitor Exports, Maldives United States 254, Haiti China 99, Romania France 98, Dem Rep of the Congo Spain 96, Cayman Islands Germany 75, Trinidad and Tobago Italy 70, Montenegro United Kingdom 65, Namibia Japan 46, Croatia Turkey 42, Bahrain Australia 40,110.2 What countries are expected to earn the largest amount (relative terms) on Travel & Tourism Visitor Exports in 2016? & Tourism Visitor Exports fastest between ? Visitor Exports, 2016 (% of Total Exports) Visitor Exports, (% Annualized Real Growth) 1 Anguilla Dem Rep of the Congo Antigua and Barbuda Montenegro Saint Lucia United Arab Emirates Sao Tome and Principe Romania Bahamas Cambodia Vanuatu Croatia Macau Maldives Barbados India Dominica Albania St Vincent and the Grenadines Yugoslavia 7.6 What countries are expected to earn the largest amount (absolute terms) on Travel & Tourism Other Exports in 2006? What countries are expected to earn the largest amount (relative terms) on Travel & Tourism Other Exports in 2006? Other Exports, 2006 Other Exports, 2006 (% of Total Exports) 1 Germany 104, Trinidad and Tobago United States 94, Nigeria France 60, Canada Japan 54, France Canada 43, Venezuela China 38, Chad United Kingdom 28, Yemen Spain 23, Germany Belgium 23, Slovakia Italy 21, Angola

17 TOP TEN TABLES & Tourism Other Exports fastest in 2006? What countries are expected to earn the largest amount (absolute terms) on Travel & Tourism Other Exports in 2016? Other Exports, 2006 (% Real Growth) Other Exports, Sudan United States 298, Cape Verde Germany 220, Grenada China 149, Bosnia and Herzegovina Japan 130, Albania France 115, Burma Canada 80, South Africa United Kingdom 52, Maldives Spain 51, Macedonia Mexico 48, India Hong Kong 45,338.2 What countries are expected to earn the largest amount (relative terms) on Travel & Tourism Other Exports in 2016? & Tourism Other Exports fastest between ? Other Exports, 2016 (% of Total Exports) Other Exports, (% Annualized Real Growth) 1 Trinidad and Tobago India Venezuela Cape Verde Yemen Romania Saudi Arabia Croatia France Turkey Canada Rwanda Oman Fiji Nigeria New Zealand Iran Nepal Germany United States 9.6 What countries are expected to total the largest amount (absolute terms) on Travel & Tourism Demand in 2006? & Tourism Demand fastest in 2006? Travel & Tourism Demand, 2006 Travel & Tourism Demand, 2006 (% Real Growth) 1 United States 1,652, Maldives Japan 522, Croatia Germany 412, China China 353, Bahrain France 336, Angola United Kingdom 328, Trinidad and Tobago Spain 251, Albania Italy 246, Namibia Canada 189, Montenegro Mexico 140, Qatar

18 TOP TEN TABLES What countries are expected to total the largest amount (absolute terms) on Travel & Tourism Demand in 2016? & Tourism Demand fastest between ? Travel & Tourism Demand, 2016 Travel & Tourism Demand, (% Annualized Real Growth) 1 United States 2,907, Montenegro China 1,299, China Japan 947, India Germany 668, Romania France 534, Croatia Spain 508, Vietnam United Kingdom 469, Latvia Italy 369, Maldives Canada 303, Albania Mexico 287, Cambodia 7.0 What countries are expected to produce the largest amount (absolute terms) of Travel & Tourism Industry GDP in 2006? What countries are expected to produce the largest amount (relative terms) of Travel & Tourism Industry GDP in 2006? Travel & Tourism Industry GDP 2006 Travel & Tourism Industry GDP 2006 (% of Total GDP) 1 United States 518, Macau Japan 168, Maldives France 95, Seychelles Spain 81, Anguilla Italy 81, Antigua and Barbuda United Kingdom 79, Aruba Germany 77, British Virgin Islands China 63, Vanuatu Mexico 41, Saint Lucia Canada 41, Bahamas 16.8 & Tourism Industry GDP fastest in 2006? What countries are expected to produce the largest amount (absolute terms) of Travel & Tourism Industry GDP in 2016? Travel & Tourism Industry GDP 2006 (% Real Growth) Travel & Tourism Industry GDP Maldives United States 833, Gabon Japan 289, Cayman Islands China 232, Central African Republic France 145, Bahrain Spain 137, Latvia Italy 117, Haiti Germany 108, Ukraine United Kingdom 100, Singapore Mexico 71, Ghana Canada 59,

19 TOP TEN TABLES What countries are expected to produce the largest amount (relative terms) of Travel & Tourism Industry GDP in 2016? & Tourism Industry GDP fastest between ? Travel & Tourism Industry GDP 2016 (% of Total GDP) Travel & Tourism Industry GDP (% Annualized Real Growth) 1 Macau Montenegro Seychelles China Maldives United Arab Emirates Anguilla Chad Antigua and Barbuda Croatia Vanuatu Latvia British Virgin Islands Cambodia Aruba Maldives Saint Lucia Estonia Bahamas Albania 7.5 What countries are expected to produce the largest amount (absolute terms) of Travel & Tourism Economy GDP in 2006? What countries are expected to produce the largest amount (relative terms) of Travel & Tourism Economy GDP in 2006? Travel & Tourism Economy GDP 2006 Travel & Tourism Economy GDP 2006 (% of Total GDP) 1 United States 1,390, Macau Japan 446, Antigua and Barbuda China 301, Aruba Germany 267, Anguilla France 249, Maldives United Kingdom 212, British Virgin Islands Spain 212, Seychelles Italy 192, Saint Lucia Canada 131, Bahamas Mexico 118, Vanuatu 47.0 & Tourism Economy GDP fastest in 2006? What countries are expected to produce the largest amount (absolute terms) of Travel & Tourism Economy GDP in 2016? Travel & Tourism Economy GDP 2006 (% Real Growth) Travel & Tourism Economy GDP Maldives United States 2,332, China China 1,076, Bahrain Japan 782, Angola Spain 427, Albania Germany 411, Nigeria France 386, Trinidad and Tobago United Kingdom 284, Haiti Italy 274, Cayman Islands Mexico 236, Namibia Canada 200,

20 TOP TEN TABLES What countries are expected to produce the largest amount (relative terms) of Travel & Tourism Economy GDP in 2016? & Tourism Economy GDP fastest between ? Travel & Tourism Economy GDP 2016 (% of Total GDP) Travel & Tourism Economy GDP (% Annualized Real Growth) 1 Antigua and Barbuda China Macau Croatia Anguilla Montenegro Aruba Latvia Seychelles Albania Maldives Cambodia British Virgin Islands Vietnam Vanuatu Maldives Bahamas Estonia Saint Lucia Lithuania 6.9 What countries are expected to generate the largest amount (absolute terms) of Travel & Tourism Industry Employment in 2006? What countries are expected to generate the largest amount (relative terms) of Travel & Tourism Industry Employment in 2006? Travel & Tourism Industry Employment 2006 ('000 of Jobs) Travel & Tourism Industry Employment 2006 (% of Total Employment) 1 China 17, Macau India 10, Seychelles United States 5, Antigua and Barbuda Japan 2, Aruba Indonesia 2, British Virgin Islands Brazil 2, Maldives Thailand 1, Anguilla Mexico 1, Bahamas Spain 1, Saint Lucia France 1, Virgin Islands 19.0 & Tourism Industry Employment fastest in 2006? What countries are expected to generate the largest amount (absolute terms) of Travel & Tourism Industry Employment in 2016? Travel & Tourism Industry Employment 2006 (% Growth) Travel & Tourism Industry Employment 2016 ('000 of Jobs) 1 Maldives China 20, Zimbabwe India 10, Gabon United States 5, Angola Indonesia 3, Cayman Islands Japan 3, Singapore Brazil 2, Central African Republic Thailand 2, Kuwait Mexico 1, Haiti France 1, Togo Spain 1,

21 TOP TEN TABLES What countries are expected to generate the largest amount (relative terms) of Travel & Tourism Industry Employment in 2016? & Tourism Industry Employment fastest between ? Travel & Tourism Industry Employment 2016 (% of Total Employment) T&T Industry Employment (% Annualized Growth) 1 Seychelles Kuwait Macau Vanuatu Antigua and Barbuda Montenegro British Virgin Islands Solomon Islands Anguilla Lebanon Aruba United Arab Emirates Maldives Curaçao Bahamas Nicaragua Vanuatu Algeria Virgin Islands Syria 5.1 What countries are expected to generate the largest amount (absolute terms) of Travel & Tourism Economy Employment in 2006? What countries are expected to generate the largest amount (relative terms) of Travel & Tourism Economy Employment in 2006? Travel & Tourism Economy Employment 2006 ('000 of Jobs) Travel & Tourism Economy Employment 2006 (% of Total Employment) 1 China 77, Antigua and Barbuda India 24, Macau United States 15, Aruba Indonesia 7, Anguilla Japan 6, British Virgin Islands Brazil 5, Seychelles Mexico 4, Bahamas Russian Federation 4, Maldives Germany 3, Virgin Islands Thailand 3, Saint Lucia 51.9 & Tourism Economy Employment fastest in 2006? What countries are expected to generate the largest amount (absolute terms) of Travel & Tourism Economy Employment in 2016? Travel & Tourism Economy Employment 2006 (% Growth) Travel & Tourism Economy Employment 2016 ('000 of Jobs) 1 Maldives China 89, Angola India 27, Haiti United States 16, Syria Indonesia 9, Nigeria Japan 8, Cayman Islands Mexico 7, Namibia Brazil 6, Singapore Russian Federation 5, Seychelles Spain 5, Zimbabwe Germany 4,

22 TOP TEN TABLES What countries are expected to generate the largest amount (relative terms) of Travel & Tourism Economy Employment in 2016? & Tourism Economy Employment fastest between ? Travel & Tourism Economy Employment 2016 (% of Total Employment) T&T Economy Employment (% Annualized Growth) 1 Aruba Vanuatu Antigua and Barbuda Kuwait Macau Solomon Islands Anguilla Nicaragua Seychelles Curaçao British Virgin Islands Fiji Bahamas Montenegro Virgin Islands Belize Saint Lucia Croatia Maldives Lebanon 4.7 What countries are expected to grow their Personal Travel & Tourism the most between ? What countries are expected to grow their Business Travel the most between ? Personal Travel & Tourism, (Mn US$ Constant 2000) Business Travel, (Mn US$ Constant 2000) 1 United States 244, United States 45, China 125, China 45, Japan 79, Japan 15, United Kingdom 34, United Kingdom 8, France 32, France 6, Germany 24, Spain 6, Mexico 23, Germany 5, Iran 22, Korea, Republic of 5, Canada 18, India 4, Korea, Republic of 17, Mexico 4,334.2 What countries are expected to grow their Trvel & Tourism Government Expenditures the most between ? & Tourism Capital Investment the most between ? Government Expenditures, (Mn US$ Constant 2000) Capital Investment, (Mn US$ Constant 2000) 1 United States 30, China 132, Japan 8, United States 72, China 4, Spain 40, United Kingdom 3, Mexico 23, Canada 2, India 13, France 2, Russian Federation 12, Spain 1, Korea, Republic of 10, Korea, Republic of 1, Japan 9, Italy Hong Kong 9, Mexico United Kingdom 8,

23 TOP TEN TABLES & Tourism Visitor Exports the most between ? & Tourism Other Exports the most between ? Visitor Exports, (Mn US$ Constant 2000) Other Exports, (Mn US$ Constant 2000) 1 United States 56, United States 124, France 23, Germany 59, China 20, China 44, Japan 17, Japan 41, Germany 17, France 29, United Kingdom 15, Canada 20, Hong Kong 14, Hong Kong 20, Spain 12, Mexico 17, Italy 10, Korea, Republic of 15, Australia 10, United Kingdom 15,410.1 & Tourism Demand the most between ? & Tourism Industry GDP the most between ? Travel & Tourism Demand, (Mn US$ Constant 2000) Travel & Tourism Industry GDP, (Mn US$ Constant 2000) 1 United States 574, United States 125, China 373, China 66, Japan 173, Japan 43, Germany 111, France 23, France 98, Spain 15, Spain 86, Mexico 13, United Kingdom 85, Iran 11, Mexico 78, United Kingdom 11, Hong Kong 62, Germany 10, Canada 62, Italy 9,992.4 & Tourism Economy GDP the most between ? & Tourism Industry Employment the most between ? Travel & Tourism Economy GDP, (Mn US$ Constant 2000) Travel & Tourism Industry Empl, ('000 of Jobs) 1 United States 404, China 3, China 303, Indonesia Japan 127, Brazil Spain 72, Mexico France 66, Morocco Mexico 61, Japan Germany 58, France United Kingdom 41, Philippines Canada 36, Pakistan Hong Kong 35, Bangladesh

24 TOP TEN TABLES & Tourism Economy Employment the most between ? Travel & Tourism Economy Empl, ('000 of Jobs) 1 China 12, Mexico 2, India 2, Indonesia 2, Spain 1, Brazil 1, Japan 1, Vietnam France Philippines

25 WORLD AT A GLANCE Data Source Confidence and Forecast Margin of Error 2006 Personal T&T (% Total Consumption) 2006 T&T Demand (US$ mn) 2006 T&T Visitor Exports (% Real Growth) 2006 T&T Demand (% Real Growth) 2006 T&T Visitor Exports (% Total Exports) 2006 T&T Demand Market Share (% of Total World Demand) 2006 T&T Govt Expd. (% Total Govt) 2006 T&T Industry GDP (% of Total GDP) 2006 T&T Economy GDP (% of Total GDP) 2006 T&T Industry Jobs ('000) 2006 T&T Industry Jobs (% of Total Employment) 2006 T&T Economy Jobs ('000) 2006 T&T Economy Jobs (% of Total Employment) 2006 T&T Capital Investment (% of Total Investment 2006 T&T Capital Investment (% Real Growth WORLD 6,477, , , Caribbean 51, , Anguilla Moderate Antigua and Barbuda Moderate Aruba Low 2, Bahamas Low 3, Barbados Moderate 1, Bermuda Low 1, British Virgin Islands Low Cayman Islands Low Cuba Low 5, Curaçao Low Dominica Moderate Dominican Republic Moderate 8, Grenada Moderate Guadeloupe Low 1, Haiti Low Jamaica Moderate 4, Martinique Low 1, Puerto Rico Moderate 10, Saint Kitts and Nevis Moderate Saint Lucia Moderate St Vincent and the Grenadines Moderate Trinidad and Tobago High 2, Virgin Islands Low 2, Central and Eastern Europe 244, , , Albania Low 1, Belarus Low 3, Bosnia and Herzegovina Moderate 1, Bulgaria Moderate 6, Croatia High 12, Macedonia Moderate Montenegro Moderate Romania High 7, Russian Federation High 94, , Ukraine Moderate 11, , Yugoslavia Moderate 1, European Union 2,149, , , Austria High 73, Belgium High 74, Cyprus* Moderate 5, Czech Republic* High 24, Denmark High 34, Estonia* Moderate 3, Finland High 25, France High 336, , , Germany High 412, , , Greece High 41, Hungary* High 15, Ireland High 28, Italy High 246, , , Latvia* Moderate 1, Lithuania* Moderate 4, Luxembourg Moderate 7, Malta* Moderate 1, Netherlands High 90, Poland* High 37, , Portugal High 38, Slovakia* High 9, Slovenia* High 6, Spain High 251, , , Sweden High 48, United Kingdom High 328, , High Moderate Low High confidence in data sources. Countries with moderate confidence in data sources. Countries with forecast subjust to high uncertainty and/or with limited access to data. 23 *The new EU accession countries are presented, analyzed and compared in this report within the European Union "Region" although their estimates are also included within their geographic regional totals of Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and North Africa respectively.

26 WORLD AT A GLANCE Data Source Confidence and Forecast Margin of Error 2006 Personal T&T (% Total Consumption) 2006 T&T Demand (US$ mn) 2006 T&T Visitor Exports (% Real Growth) 2006 T&T Demand (% Real Growth) 2006 T&T Visitor Exports (% Total Exports) 2006 T&T Demand Market Share (% of Total World Demand) 2006 T&T Govt Expd. (% Total Govt) 2006 T&T Industry GDP (% of Total GDP) 2006 T&T Economy GDP (% of Total GDP) 2006 T&T Industry Jobs ('000) 2006 T&T Industry Jobs (% of Total Employment) 2006 T&T Economy Jobs ('000) 2006 T&T Economy Jobs (% of Total Employment) 2006 T&T Capital Investment (% of Total Investment 2006 T&T Capital Investment (% Real Growth Latin America 163, , , Argentina High 22, , Belize Moderate Bolivia Moderate 1, Brazil High 70, , , Chile High 11, Colombia Moderate 11, , Costa Rica Moderate 4, Ecuador Moderate 3, El Salvador Moderate 2, Guatemala Moderate 3, Guyana Low Honduras Moderate 1, Nicaragua Moderate Panama Moderate 2, Paraguay Moderate Peru Moderate 7, Suriname Low Uruguay Moderate 2, Venezuela Moderate 15, Middle East 147, , , Bahrain Low 4, Iran Moderate 29, , Israel Moderate 16, Jordan Moderate 4, Kuwait Low 10, Lebanon Low 4, Oman Low 4, Qatar Low 5, Saudi Arabia Moderate 34, Syria Low 4, United Arab Emirates Moderate 26, Yemen Low 1, North Africa 53, , , Algeria Low 8, Egypt Moderate 18, , , Libya Low 7, Morocco Moderate 11, , , Tunisia Moderate 6, North America 1,982, , , Canada High 189, , Mexico High 140, , , United States High 1,652, , , Northeast Asia 1,078, , , China High 353, , , Chinese Taipei High 37, Hong Kong High 58, Japan High 522, , , Korea, Republic of High 94, , Macau Moderate 11, Oceania 149, , Australia High 118, , Fiji Low 1, Kiribati Low New Zealand High 22, Other Oceania Low 7, Solomon Islands Low Tonga Low Vanuatu Low High Moderate Low High confidence in data sources. Countries with moderate confidence in data sources. Countries with forecast subjust to high uncertainty and/or with limited access to data. 24

27 WORLD AT A GLANCE Data Source Confidence and Forecast Margin of Error 2006 Personal T&T (% Total Consumption) 2006 T&T Demand (US$ mn) 2006 T&T Visitor Exports (% Real Growth) 2006 T&T Demand (% Real Growth) 2006 T&T Visitor Exports (% Total Exports) 2006 T&T Demand Market Share (% of Total World Demand) 2006 T&T Govt Expd. (% Total Govt) 2006 T&T Industry GDP (% of Total GDP) 2006 T&T Economy GDP (% of Total GDP) 2006 T&T Industry Jobs ('000) 2006 T&T Industry Jobs (% of Total Employment) 2006 T&T Economy Jobs ('000) 2006 T&T Economy Jobs (% of Total Employment) 2006 T&T Capital Investment (% of Total Investment 2006 T&T Capital Investment (% Real Growth Other Western Europe 184, , , Iceland Moderate 4, Norway High 36, Switzerland High 72, Turkey High 63, , South Asia 72, , , Bangladesh Moderate 3, , India High 53, , , Maldives Moderate Nepal Low 1, Pakistan Moderate 10, , , Sri Lanka Moderate 3, Southeast Asia 235, , , Brunei Darussalam Low 1, Burma Low 67, Cambodia Low 1, , Indonesia High 37, , , Laos Low Malaysia High 30, , Papua New Guinea Low 1, Philippines High 13, , , Singapore High 32, Thailand High 40, , , Vietnam Moderate 9, , Sub-Saharan Africa 75, , , Angola Low 3, , Benin Low Botswana Low 1, Burkina Faso Low Burundi Low Cameroon Low 1, Cape Verde Low Central African Republic Low Chad Low Comoros Low Congo, Democratic Republic Low Cote d'ivoire Low 1, Dem Rep of the Congo Low Ethiopia Low 1, , Gabon Low 1, Gambia Low Ghana Moderate 1, Guinea Low Kenya Moderate 3, Lesotho Low Madagascar Low Malawi Low Mali Low Mauritius Moderate 2, Namibia Low Niger Low Nigeria Moderate 9, , Reunion Low 4, Rwanda Low Sao Tome and Principe Low Senegal Low Seychelles Moderate Sierra Leone Low South Africa High 28, , Sudan Low 2, Swaziland Low Tanzania Low 1, Togo Low Uganda Low 1, Zambia Moderate Zimbabwe Low High Moderate Low High confidence in data sources. Countries with moderate confidence in data sources. Countries with forecast subjust to high uncertainty and/or with limited access to data. 25

28 TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNTING THIS REPORT FOLLOWS THE CONCEPT OF SATELLITE ACCOUNTING DEFINED IN THE TOURISM SATELLITE ACCOUNT: RECOMMENDED METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK (TSA:RMF), AND DEVELOPED UNDER THE AUSPICES OF THE WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION. Over the last three decades, countries have estimated the economic impact of Travel & Tourism through a range of measures using a variety of definitions and methodologies. Such approaches have prevented meaningful comparisons among nations. Even for the same nation over different periods of time, they have frustrated business and government attempts to draw valid conclusions about the nature and course of Travel & Tourism demand in national economies. This regime has obscured the substantial, positive role the industry plays in national economies and has thwarted business and government attempts to optimize economic programmes and policies. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) recognized the dearth of crucial Travel & Tourism intelligence from the time of its establishment in 1990 and it published the first detailed estimates of world tourism's economic impact that same year. Since then WTTC has worked to improve its methodologies and to encourage individual countries to enhance their measurement and understanding of tourism s impact on their national economies. Furthermore, in the spirit of joining forces to enhance world comprehension of the role of Travel & Tourism in national economies, WTTC has strongly supported the programmes of the World Tourism Organization (WTO) to improve tourism statistics worldwide. WTTC S RESEARCH WTTC and its economic consultants/research partners Oxford Economic Forecasting, (OEF), since 1999, and Global Insight (previously known as DRI WEFA), from have developed and published research on the economic contribution of Travel & Tourism to the world, regional and national economies. Starting in 1990,WTTC s research team has been working to develop practical, real-world models to illustrate Travel & Tourism s economic contribution based on the needs of private sector leaders, public sector policy-makers and industry researchers, and on the interpretation of the system of national accounts. The research is now firmly anchored in the international standard for tourism satellite accounting that was developed by WTO, OECD and Eurostat, and approved by the United Nations Statistical Commission in It was launched at the TSA Conference held in Vancouver in May 2001 and published as The Tourism Satellite Account: Recommended Methodological Framework (TSA:RMF) in Since 1999, WTTC's research has assumed the conceptual framework of the UNapproved standard with a number of discretionary extensions, and it combines the most sophisticated economic modelling and forecasts available with the most up-todate, publicly available data to generate a comprehensive implementation of Travel & Tourism satellite accounting. 26

29 WTTC S APPROACH TO TSA RESEARCH WTTC HAS ENDEAVOURED TO IMPLEMENT AND PRODUCE THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE TSA PROVIDED FOR WITHIN THE TSA:RMF, BY DEVELOPING THE SPECIFIC CONCEPT OF THE TRAVEL & TOURISM INDUSTRY IN ADDITION TO THE BROADER CONCEPT OF THE TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY. WTTC advocates full implementation of the TSA as defined in the TSA:RMF in order to achieve the highest level of benefits for industry and governments. These include: A wealth of customer and consumer information on tourism-related purchases (before, during and after trips whether domestic or international, imported or exported as well as services, durables and non-durables) that has never been identified until now; Comprehensive documentation and analysis of the full tourism-product service chain and government s ability to deliver quality and timely service to visitors; Linkages between Travel & Tourism and other sectors of the economy such as agriculture and manufacturing to illustrate the flow-through of spending; Complete outlook for public works that benefit visitors and Travel & Tourism companies in order to leverage public sector plans and priorities for growth; Focused opportunities for domestic production, as well as incentives from the public sector, to aid in the growth of businesses that help alleviate trade balance issues; Demand- and supply-side information on employment that allows for human resource planning and development. WTTC has worked towards developing a comprehensive TSA not because it is eager to exaggerate the size of Travel & Tourism s impact, but because the information that can be garnered from the exercise by governments and industry is crucial for making intelligent and informed policy and business decisions. WTTC believes that history will document its pioneering implementation of the simulated TSA as one of the most important turning points for Travel & Tourism s long overdue economic recognition. In the WTTC research, no country receives special treatment or favours. WTTC uses internationally available data sources and the same scope of tourism satellite accounting for all countries, as well as the same basic assumptions through the same system of models. WTTC s TSA research utilizes a universal and internally consistent modelling framework and generates harmonized results and forecasts for more than 174 countries around the world. Details of the methodology used by WTTC/OEF in its TSA research are available on WTTC's website ( 27

30 OXFORD ECONOMIC FORECASTING ASSISTING WTTC PROVIDE TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS, BENCHMARKING, FORECASTING AND PLANNING An elite provider of economic analysis, forecasting and modelling, OEF possesses the skills and experience to assist you get to grips with the drivers of your business. Projects undertaken in recent years in tourism related fields include: Detailed country and regional appraisals of the impact of tourism on the economy Preparation of scenarios to assess the potential impact of outside events, such as War in Iraq, on tourism flows and spending Development of a forecasting framework for a hotel chain to analyse and predict occupancy rates and revenue across their properties As well as bespoke consultancy, OEF offers a wide range of subscription services.these include publications on the international macroeconomy and a full range of sectors globally, as well as extensive web-based forecast databanks that can be downloaded in spreadsheet format.the emphasis in all our work is making our analysis both accessible and relevant to decision makers. Over the last 25 years OEF has built a diverse and loyal client base of over 300 organisations worldwide, including international organizations, governments, central banks, and both large and small businesses. Headquartered in Oxford, England, with offices in London, Philadelphia and Basel, OEF employs over 35 full-time, highly qualified, economists and data specialists, while maintaining links with a network of economists in universities worldwide. For more information please take advantage of a free trial on our website, or contact Tom Glanville, OEF,Abbey House, 121 St Aldates, Oxford, OX1 1HB, United Kingdom.Tel ; tglanville@oef.co.uk

31 WTTC would like to express its sincere appreciation to the entire research and economics team associated with this 2006 Tourism Satellite Accounting Research Oxford Economic Forecasting Adrian Cooper, Managing Director Alan Wilson, Director of Consulting Services Keith Edmonds, Senior Economist Pablo Astorga, Senior Economist The OEF Macroeconomic Forecasting and Technical Teams World Travel & Tourism Council Richard Miller, Executive Vice President

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