Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Serbia Results from the ADAGIO Project

Transcription

1 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Serbia Results from the ADAGIO Project D.T.Mihailović (1,1a,1b,1c), B.Lalić (1,1a), R.Jevtić (2), M. Malešević (2), Z. Keserović (1), Ž. Petrović (1) and S. Jasnić (2) (1) Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, SERBIA (1a) Center for Meteorology and Environmental Modelling, Department for Physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, SERBIA (1b) Visiting Professor, The New York State University, Alabany, USA (1c) Visiting Researcher, Norwegina Meteorological Institute, Oslo, NORWAY 2) Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops, Novi Sad, SERBIA To my Rose Milutin Milankovic Climate Change Center Belgrade Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, June 2009

2 ADAGIO PROJECT: RESPONSIBLE SERBIAN INSTITUTION AND CORRESPONDING CREW Milutin Milankovic Climate Change Center Belgrade Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, June 2009

3 CMEP Among 25 universities of Central Europe which are on the list of 2000 ranking universities in the world. On 1227 place Among 5000 world working universities Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, June 2009

4 Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, June 2009

5 People University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Physics Professors (Old crew) Young professors PhD candidates (Young crew) D.T. Mihailovic, Head of Center D. Kapor M. Budincevic M. Jevtic I. Arsenic A. Firanj B. Rajkovic M. Malesevic Z. Mijatovic B. Lalic A. Cirisan I. Balaž Climate Change in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo, 17 March 2009

6 New approaches Vienna, February 2007, Project Meeting 2) Modelling tools Parallelized regional weather forecast Non-hydrostatic model Workstation Eta Operationally uses for weather forecast at space resolution 15x15 km for area of Europe with NCEP s GFS files for initialization and boundary conditions ECHAM global climate model LAPS land surface scheme BAHUS prediction occurrence of plant diseases EMEP chemical model NEOPLANTA UV radiation model

7 Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, 7 February nodes, 288 core PC cluster 150 GB DDR 800 MHz RAM 15 TB storage capacity ECHAM global l integrationti n REGIONAL non-hydrostatic model

8 ADAGIO STARTING POINT - SERBIA We had nothing. After that some people had come and then they were taking everything from us! (Serbian byword about substantial poorness) Milutin Milankovic Climate Change Center Belgrade Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, June 2009

9 Reaearch Vienna, February 2007, Project Meeting Climate change research: Current situation At this moment we can say: THERE ARE NOT SYSTEMATIC RESEARCH IN CLIMATE CHANGE FIELD (1) The activities are going sporadically in university institutions and operationally in met. service (2) There is no awareness of people involved in the fundamental and aplicative research (3) There is no national strategy The starting point for the Serbian crew is: 1) We have just project tasks 2) All other things we must do. Not only to reach tasks but to do a lot additional job 3) We are starting now from the ground zero

10 Adaptation Vienna, February 2007, Project Meeting Adaptation ti on climate change in Serbia At this moment we can say: THERE ARE NOT SYSTEMATIC MEASURES FOR ADAPTATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN (1) agriculture as well as other vulnerable segments of activities and (2) lifting the level of awareness of people involved in primarily food production except Old cross breading programs for wheat resistant on high temperature and recent rural sociology research about extension services in Vojvodina

11 Adaptation Vienna, February 2007, Project Meeting Interview done only with the employees in the Extension Service of Vojvodina (Serbia) 13 Agricultural stations with 207 experts 199 experts were interviewed 60 questions with different scale of offered possibilities Aim: (a) Reform of extension services in Vojvodina (Serbia) in the transition period (b) Establishing the neediness of the farmers for knowledge based on the opinion of agricultural experts in Vojvodina (Serbia) in the transition period (c) Establishing the optimal way for the knowledge transfer to farmers

12 The main goals as the Partner 4 we have the following responsibilities а) On the basis the observed indicators about climate change in the selected regions with an intensive agricultural production we have to suggests the measures of adaptation b) To lead the thematic ADAGIO group Adaptation on occurrence of pests and diseases на determined by climate change FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, September 2007

13 JOB THAT IS DONE SERBIAN CREW Milutin Milankovic Climate Change Center Belgrade Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, June 2009

14 1) Work on the questionnaires using corresponding methodology (questionnaires for gathering data about attitude of experts and farmers) a) )Jb Job that is done *) Rough draft of the questionnaires (four meetings) that that included whole group (meteorologists,plant protection, agronomy and fruit production, rural sociology experts) *) Final polishing the questionnaires for #) plant protection experts #) fruit production experts #) agronomy experts and farmers *) Sending questionnaires on 921 addresses (experts and farmers) by regular mail that then returned to us FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, September 2007

15 1) Work on the questionnaires using corresponding methodology (questionnaires for gathering data about attitude of experts and farmers) a) )Jb Job that is done Number of Number of Number of Number of respodents respodents questions questions Kind Experts Farmers Experts Farmers Agronomy 21/175 48/ Plant protection 38/150 79/ Fuit production 14/50 68/ Total 73/375 (19.4%) 195/546 (36%) Simple statistics from the questionnaire features and number of respondents for Vojvodina Province FP6 ADAGIO Regional Meeting, Sofia, September 2007

16 Classical approaches +0.2 Trends in annual p (C) ( ) air temperature ( ) Vienna, February 2007, Project Meeting

17 Classical approaches +37 Trends in annual precipitation p p ((mm)) ( ) Vienna, February 2007, Project Meeting FP6 ADAGIO Proj. No SSPE-CT : Први национални скуп/ irst national meeting/ , Novi Sad, Srbija

18 Vienna, February 2007, Project Meeting Classical approaches FP6 ADAGIO Proj. No SSPE-CT : Први национални скуп/ First national meeting/ , Novi Sad, Srbija Summer maximum (a) and winter minimum (b) trend distribution in Vojvodina ( ) (a) Summer (b) Winter (Lalic et al., 2004)

19 Regional climate modelling (Djurdjevic and Rajkovic, Ann. Geophy., 2009)

20 ANALYSIS THAT IS DONE SERBIAN CREW Milutin Milankovic Climate Change Center Belgrade Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, June 2009

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29 These research was conducted under

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31 DESIMINATION SERBIAN CREW Milutin Milankovic Climate Change Center Belgrade Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, June 2009

32 Popular desimination #) 20 interviews on Serbian and Hungarian TV statios #) 13 articles in farmer and other journals #) 25 lectures on national, farmer and public meetings Further activities (ADAGIO after ADAGIO) 1) At least chapter in the book (summary of the thematic group work) 2) Paper in Climate Change or Climate Research (summary of the compelete work) Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, June 2009

33 Conferences, papers and other forms of desimination #) COST 734 5th Management Commitee Meeting Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture: CLIVAGRI, Larissa, Greece (March 27-28, 2008) #) Global environmental change: Challenges to science and society in Southeastern Europe International Conference, Sofia, Bulgaria (19-21 May 2008) #) Symposium on Climate Change and Variability-Agrometeorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies for Agriculture, Oscarsborg, Norway (04-07 June 2008) #) iemss 2008, International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, Barcelona, Spain: Session Environmental Fluid Mechanics (07-10 July 2008) #) Conferences of EMS Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, 4 September 2007

34 Awards Award of the EMS for the Best Paper on the Conference for the Young Scientist Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, February 2008

35 Books Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, February 2008

36 Books Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, February 2008

37 Advances in environmental modelling and measurements Editors: D.T. Mihailovic B. Lalic Nova Sciences Publisher, 2010 Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, June 2009

38 End Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, June 2009