Ship traffic and the Roberts Bank Terminal 2 Project

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Roberts Bank Terminal Project Ship traffic information sheet The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority is responsible for ensuring that Canada s largest port is ready for growing trade and the ships that

1 Roberts Bank Terminal Project Ship traffic information sheet The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority is responsible for ensuring that Canada s largest port is ready for growing trade and the ships that trade will bring. The Roberts Bank Terminal Project is a proposed container terminal in Delta, B.C. that is needed to ensure Canada is able to meet its trade objectives through the mid- to late-030s. The project is currently undergoing a federal environmental assessment by an independent review panel. Ship traffic and the Roberts Bank Terminal Project In 05, the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority submitted to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency the Roberts Bank Terminal Project Environmental Impact Statement, which considered the impact of the project within a defined scope set out by the agency. At the request of the agency, the port authority also submitted the Marine Shipping Addendum in 05, which assessed project-related shipping outside of the port authority s jurisdiction in the Salish Sea. In developing those documents, we estimated the number of ships expected as a result of the Roberts Bank Terminal Project. Since then, there have been developments in the container shipping industry, such as an accelerated trend toward larger ship sizes and the overbuilding of shipping capacity, which led to the demise of some shipping companies and the formation of new service alliances among others, all of which motivated us to seek validation of our earlier estimates. Results of 08 container ship call study The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority commissioned Mercator International to provide a forecast of container ship traffic travelling through the Salish Sea and serving Pacific Northwest ports, with or without the Roberts Bank Terminal Project. Using forecasts for overall container volumes provided by Ocean Shipping Consultants, Mercator provided the following key findings and conclusions about ship numbers: Alliances, or groups of shipping lines, work together to each offer regular, generally weekly, service to Pacific Northwest ports, including the ports of Vancouver, Seattle/Tacoma and Prince Rupert. The number of regular services to Pacific Northwest ports will not change if Roberts Bank Terminal is built. The total number of container ships that serve Port of Vancouver container terminals will be the same, whether or not Roberts Bank Terminal is built. What will change is the size of the ships, which will be slightly larger on average if the project proceeds, and the amount of cargo loaded and unloaded in Vancouver, which will increase by approximately 33 per cent. As a result of industry shipping trends, the 08 study forecasts fewer overall ship calls to the Port of Vancouver in 035 than there were in 07, with or without Roberts Bank Terminal, despite an increase in container volumes. This is a continuation of the trend of declining container ship calls and larger ships at the Port of Vancouver since around 005. Though the total number of ships calling on the Port of Vancouver will not be affected by Roberts Bank Terminal, its construction will result in a higher number of container ships calling on Roberts Bank terminals and fewer calling on Vancouver s inner harbour and Fraser River terminals. If Roberts Bank Terminal is not built, increasing import demand for container cargo by Canadians will go through U.S. ports. This would result in higher costs, higher transportation emissions and unrealized economic opportunity, including jobs, for Canadians. Mercator International is a consulting agency with experts in the global transportation sector. They have extensive experience working with stakeholders from port authorities, ocean carriers, terminal operators and cargo owners around the world. Vancouver Fraser Port Authority RBT Ship traffic November 08

Container shipping alliances How container ship services operate Three international

years to more efficiently use their ships by operating regular-scheduled services

This is not unlike airline company alliances, which have been common for years.

to call ports on regular, usually weekly, schedules.

and their customers, based on strategic, commercial and volume drivers.

International ocean carrier alliances The Alliance Ocean Alliance M + H Example of a

Major Asian ports CONTAINER SHIP SERVICE ROUTE PRINCE RUPERT Asia to North America SE

2 Container shipping alliances How container ship services operate Three international shipping alliances, made up of individual shipping companies, have formed in recent years to more efficiently use their ships by operating regular-scheduled services around the world. This is not unlike airline company alliances, which have been common for years. These alliances deploy a number of regular services to Pacific Northwest ports from Asia, Europe and Australia. Ship services are routes developed by shipping line alliances that allow the alliance to call ports on regular, usually weekly, schedules. The alliances structure routes and schedules in ways that make the most sense to them and their customers, based on strategic, commercial and volume drivers. Ultimately, their goal is to maximize the efficient use of their ship assets. International ocean carrier alliances The Alliance Ocean Alliance M + H Example of a single container shipping alliance service route Port of Vancouver Port of Tacoma Major Asian ports CONTAINER SHIP SERVICE ROUTE PRINCE RUPERT Asia to North America SE AT TLE TACOMA North America to Asia ASIA NORTH AMERICA NAGOYA KOBE TOK YO XIAMEN YANTIAN SALISH SE A HONG KONG K AOHSIUNG SE AT TLE TACOMA Alliance continuously operates 6 8 SHIPS Vancouver Fraser Port Authority RBT Ship traffic November 08 SHIP CALL PER WEEK at the Port of Vancouver, on average

Implications of the 08 study on the 05 documents For the purposes of the environmental assessment of the Roberts Bank Terminal Project, we submitted the Environmental Impact Statement and the Marine

3 Implications of the 08 study on the 05 documents For the purposes of the environmental assessment of the Roberts Bank Terminal Project, we submitted the Environmental Impact Statement and the Marine Shipping Addendum in 05, and assumed that the terminal would be operating at 00 per cent capacity in 030. This allowed us to take a conservative approach to the assessment of the potential environmental effects of the project on the marine shipping and project areas. The 05 documents did consider the changes from the project on overall container ship traffic to the Port of Vancouver and Pacific Northwest ports, but did not consider the effects of various shipping alliances that had yet to take shape, nor the changes in traffic resulting from ship size increases. The 08 container ship call study assumes the Roberts Bank Terminal Project is fully operational in 035, in line with current construction timelines, and considers how ship services to Pacific Northwest ports will be affected by a new terminal at Roberts Bank. Marine shipping and project areas BURRARD INLET Proposed Roberts Bank Terminal Project FRASER RIVER 3 Port of Vancouver container terminals Centerm Vanterm 3 Fraser Surrey Docks 4 Deltaport ROBERTS BANK CANADA 4 Marine shipping area Vancouver Fraser Port Authority navigational jurisdiction SEGMENT A ISL AND SEGMENT D 3 Vancouver Fraser Port Authority RBT Ship traffic November 08 SEGMENT E SEGMENT B SEGMENT C SEGMENT G UNITED STATES SEGMENT F

4 Implications for the 05 environmental impact statement The 08 study concludes that ship calls to Port of Vancouver container terminals at Roberts Bank will increase with the project but by a smaller amount than was assessed in the 05 Roberts Bank Terminal Environmental Impact Statement, due to the increased use of larger ships. Annual ship calls at Roberts Bank container terminals 05 EIS* Study 035 without RBT 08 Study 035 with RBT Deltaport Roberts Bank Terminal Total annual container ship calls at Roberts Bank terminals Roberts Bank annual container throughput (millions of TEUs) *EIS stands for Roberts Bank Terminal Environmental Impact Statement. Implications for the marine shipping addendum The 08 study concludes that there will be no increase in the number of container ship transits in the marine shipping area (Salish Sea), with or without the project, and the same number of container ship services, using slightly larger ships, will visit the Port of Vancouver. Further, the 08 study predicts that larger ships will be arriving sooner than originally predicted in the 05 marine shipping addendum, stating that orders for larger ships were made in 07 for Asian, European and Australian shipping services to North America, including the Pacific Northwest. The increase in ship size is not expected to alter the conclusions of the effects assessment presented in the marine shipping addendum because ships in the range of 9,000 to 3,000 TEUs are predominantly represented by the same ship class (Large Post- Panamax) that was assessed in the 05 documents. Vancouver Fraser Port Authority assumes that ship calls are evenly distributed between Deltaport and Roberts Bank Terminal due to equal terminal capacity. 4 Vancouver Fraser Port Authority RBT Ship traffic November 08

5 Total weekly container ship services to Port of Vancouver (035) WITHOUT RBT WITH RBT 7 Roberts Bank 6 Burrard Inlet Fraser River 9 Roberts Bank 5 Burrard Inlet Fraser River Source: Mercator International Types of container ships calling weekly at Roberts Bank container terminals (035) WITHOUT RBT WITH RBT Post-Panamax PPX <9,000 TEUs 0 Large PPX 9,000 <3,000 TEUs 4 3 Neo-Panamax NPX 3,000 <5,000 TEUs 4 Ultra-Large ULCS 5,000 8,000 TEUs Weekly total 7 9 Average ship size,43 TEUs,944 TEUs Source: Mercator International For more information Please visit portvancouver.com/rbt or call

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