Newman, Australia. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum

Transcription

1 Newman, Australia Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum Marcus Randolph Chief Executive Officer Ferrous and Coal March 21

2 Disclaimer Reliance on Third Party Information The views expressed here contain information that has been derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by BHP Billiton. Forward Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding future events and the future financial performance of BHP Billiton. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees or predictions of future performance, and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond our control, and which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements contained in this presentation. For more detail on those risks, you should refer to the sections of our annual report on Form 2-F for the year ended 3 June 29 entitled Risk factors, Forward looking statements and Operating and financial review and prospects filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. No Offer of Securities Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell BHP Billiton securities in any jurisdiction. Non-GAAP Financial Information BHP Billiton results are reported under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). References to Underlying EBIT and EBITDA exclude any exceptional items. A reconciliation to statutory EBIT is contained within the profit announcement, available at our website Cautionary Note to US Investors The SEC generally permits mining companies in their filings with the SEC to disclose only those mineral deposits that the company can economically and legally extract. Certain terms in this presentation, including "mineral resources", "measured resources", "indicated resources", "inferred resources", "resource life" and " potential mineralisation" would not generally be permitted in an SEC filing. The material denoted by such terms is not proven or probable reserves as such terms are used in the SEC's Industry Guide 7, and there can be no assurance that BHP Billiton will be able to convert such material to proven or probable reserves or extract such material economically. BHP Billiton urges investors to refer to its Annual Report or Form 2-F for the fiscal year ended 3 June 29 for its most recent statement of mineral reserves calculated in accordance with Industry Guide 7. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 2

3 Agenda BHP Billiton Overview Chinese Steel Industry Strong Basin Positions Our Focus on Market Clearing Prices Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 3

4 Diversified and balanced across high margin commodities Underlying EBIT (1H1, US$bn) Underlying EBIT margin (a) (1H1, %) Metallurgical Coal Manganese Iron Ore Ferrous (35.1%) Metallurgical Coal Manganese Iron Ore 28% 22% 47% 6 5 SSM D&SP SSM 12% Base Metals Aluminium Energy Coal Petroleum Non Ferrous (34.3%) Energy (3.6%) D&SP Base Metals Aluminium Energy Coal 12% 17% 3% 49% Petroleum 56% (a) EBIT margin excludes third party trading. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 4

5 Progressive growth and income Investments (US$bn) Cash Dividends (b) (US$bn) 24 2 Non Organic Organic (a) Organic Growth CAGR: 2% 5 4 H1 H2 CAGR: 25% FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY1F FY11F FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5 FY6 FY7 FY8 FY9 FY1F (a) Reflecting announced transactions only. FY11F relates to Western Australia Iron Ore Production Joint Venture equalisation payment to Rio Tinto which is subject to finalisation adjustments. (b) H2 FY1 payment includes dividend declared on 1 February 21. Calculated on the basis of UKGAAP for periods prior to FY5. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 5

6 Agenda BHP Billiton Overview Chinese Steel Industry Strong Basin Positions Our Focus on Market Clearing Prices Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 6

7 China drives the Global Steel Industry Chinese crude steel production & global share Chinese iron ore import & domestic production (Mt) (%) (Mt) (%) 6 5 Chinese production, Mt (LHS) 1, Import (Mt, LHS) 8 5 Share of global, % (RHS) 45 Chinese production (Mt, LHS) Share of China (%, RHS) Source: World Steel Association. Source: China Customs, CISA, BHP Billiton Analysis, China production basis 62% equivalent Fe. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 7

8 Steel intensity per capita grows strongly as a nation becomes wealthier Industrial development & finished steel consumption growth (kg) 1,2 1, South Korea China/India steel intensity Other country steel intensities Possible path range for China by China today Japan 4 2 Germany USA Source: India today CISA, WMM, Global Insight, BHP Billiton. Real GDP per Capita (US$ ) Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 8

9 Agenda BHP Billiton Overview Chinese Steel Industry Strong Basin Positions Our Focus on Market Clearing Prices Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 9

10 Australia is the natural supplier to Asia: Iron Ore 29 Major Trade Flows (Mt) Iron Ore 17 CIS / 32 China 258 / (629) Country Production (Mt) / Net 558% Exports (Mt) S. America 336 / India 24 / JKT / (16) Australia 371 / 365 Source: Trade statistics, AME, BHPB Billiton Analysis. All data is for the year ended 29. Location of the arrows are indicative. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 1

11 Basin strength - Iron ore, Pilbara BHP Billiton Tenements BHP Billiton Mines Finucane Island Nelson Point 12.5bt of high quality Mineral Resource (1% basis) Ore Reserve Mineral Resource Significant additional Potential Mineralisation Potential Mineralisation >2bt 1 2bt.5 1bt <.5bt Central Pilbara East Pilbara Large tonnages of Marra Mamba and Brockman ores, available for blending, at both Central and East Pilbara hubs Benefits of concentrated resources Infrastructure scale efficiencies More resource unlocked by local blending Smaller environmental footprint Source: Resource base: BHP Billiton 29 Annual Report. Equity basis: The Mineral Resource of 12.5bt in 1% terms translates to an attributable Mineral Resource of 11.1bt. This BHP Billiton Mineral Resource information was sourced from and should be read together with and subject to the notes set out in the BHP Billiton 29 Annual Report. This document can be viewed at: The mineral resource information in this slide was compiled by Heath Arvidson, a Member of the AusIMM and full time employee of BHP Billiton who has sufficient experience to qualify as a Competent Person and who consents to publication of the estimates in the form and context in which they appear above. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 11

12 Continuing to increase production and develop new mines BHP Billiton WA Iron Ore Production History (Mt, Year ended June 2-29) 3 Long-term growth to 35Mtpa under study 25 RGP5 +5Mt RGP6 +35Mt Area C & PACE +15Mt Accel. Expansion +7Mt RGP1 +1Mt RGP2 +8Mt RGP3 +2Mt Area C Hub RGP4 +26Mt RGP4 RGP5 RGP6 Yandi Goldsworthy Newman Hub Notes: 1% share; Ramp up towards RGP4 installed capacity of 155Mtpa is currently underway. All studies and estimated capacity remain under review until they are approved for execution. Forecast production in the first full year at capacity. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 12

13 Iron Ore: Unlocking scale benefits from a world class resource basin Exciting new joint venture with Rio Tinto announced on 5 June 29 Binding agreement to form 5:5 joint venture of Pilbara iron ore assets to leverage benefits of scale finalised early December 29 [Map of BHP/Rio Pilbara assets] Expected benefits include: Substantial and unique production and development synergies of over $1 billion NPV (1% basis) Efficient use of infrastructure Blending opportunities Optimising future growth Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 13

14 Australia is the natural supplier to Asia: Met Coal 29 Major Trade flows (Mt) Met Coal Asia 16 Canada 23 / 22 USA 46 / EA16 4 / (35) India 8 / (25) Russia 55 / 11 China 471 / (41) 3 JKT / (8) JKT = 56 Country Production / Net Exports 26 Australia 139 / Source: Trade statistics and BHP Billiton estimates. Note: Production and trade flow figures are in million tonnes per year. All data is for the year ended 29. Location of the arrows are indicative. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 14

15 Sustainability of Chinese coking coal demand Coastal focus on growth coupled with push for larger Blast Furnaces 7% steel capacity and >7% planned steel capacity growth is in coastal provinces of China Steel mills are building larger blast furnaces to improve productivity and reduce costs Larger blast furnaces require better quality coke, hence more high quality hard coking coal Chinese Pig Iron Output Capacity by Blast Furnace Size (Mt) Heilongjiang 8 >2m3 Source: Xinjiang Tibet BHP Billiton. Laioning Jilin Bayuquan Inner Mongolia Beijing Caofeidian Hebei Shanxi Ningxia Shandong Rizhao Qinghai Project Gansu Henan Shaanxi Jiangsu Hubei Anhui Sichuan Zhejiang Jiangxi Hunan Guizhou Fuxian Yunnan Guangxi Guandong WISCO Fangcheng Project Baosteel Zhanjiang Project ~2m3 <1m E 21E Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 15

16 We are well positioned Chinese net coking coal imports (mt) (1) (2) (3) (4) CY2 Coking Coal Imports Coal in Coke Exports Coking Coal Exports Net Imports CY3 CY4 CY5 CY6 CY7 CY8 CY9 Goonyella Riverside Broadmeadow UG 75 Peak Downs 128 Wards Well Abbot Point Red Hill May 24: VAT rebate removed Gregory Crinum UG 17 Nov 26: Export tax imposed Daunia Norwich Park 8 Poitrel 34 Saraji 86 FY9 Measured, Indicated & Inferred Resource (a) (c) 12 Resource Life (years) (b)(c) Dalrymple Bay Hay Point Coal 91 Blackwater 19 South Walker Creek Saraji East Gladstone 1km (a) Bubble size depicts relative coal resource size on a 1% basis. On an equity basis, as at end June 29, BMA/BMC s Marketable coal reserves total 1,145mt, Measured plus Indicated plus Inferred coal resources total 6,925mt. FY9 production was 3.1mt on BHP Billiton share basis. (b) Resource Life is indicative only and is calculated on the basis of [(Total Resource x Estimated Saleable Conversion Factor) / current mining rate]. (c) The resource and reserve information in this slide was compiled from the BHP Billiton 29 Annual Report by Douglas Dunn, a Member of the AusIMM and full time employee of BMA who has sufficient experience to qualify as a Competent Person and who consents to publication of the estimates in the form and context in which they appear above. Source: Chinese coal imports - China Customs Statistics. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 16

17 Agenda BHP Billiton Overview Chinese Steel Industry Strong Basin Positions Our Focus on Market Clearing Prices Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 17

18 Market evolution in volatile business environments I. Rise of spot sales Fixed priced commodities to 'market based' pricing Greater volatility Single reference product to simplify trades II. Supported by financial markets Financial market follows physical spot, driven by a volatile spot market Intermediaries enter to facilitate transactions Forward/futures facilitate financial instruments e.g. options, swaps III. Development of adjacent markets Electricity and energy coal. Trading the dark and the spark Standardisation, price transparency enable evolution Fully evolved Indicative positions Coking Coal Steel Electricity Oil Gold Manganese Iron ore Thermal Coal Natural gas LME Uranium Freight Source: Press searches, BCG experience. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 18

19 Iron Ore: Evolution continues Seaborne + China iron ore demand (Mt) 1,6 1,4 1,2 China Captive China LTC Imports China Floating Price Imports China Domestic Spot ROW Seaborne Monthly variance iron ore price ($/dmt) 3% 2% 1% September 27 1, % Global floating price market close to 5Mt in 29 (1%) (2%) September 29 2 (3%) October (4%) Feb 26 Aug 26 Feb 27 Aug 27 Feb 28 Aug 28 Feb 29 Aug 29 Source: BCG analysis, CRU, BHP Billiton. Sources: BHP Billiton. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 19

20 A one-way buyers option: why benchmark pricing doesn t work Thermal coal prices (US$/t FOB, 67Kcal/kg) 215 Iron ore prices (US$/t FOB, 63.5%/62% Fe) China Spot Implied (63.5%) Japanese Fixed (a) Platts China Spot (62%) Newcastle Floating 4 Australian Benchmark 15 Jan 23 Sep 24 May 26 Jan 28 Sep Jan 26 Oct 26 Jul 27 Apr 28 Jan 29 Oct 29 Source: Bloomberg and BHP Billiton Estimates. (a) Japanese power utilities fixed contract price. Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 2

21 Conclusions Well situated to major steel growth markets Basin strength in manganese, metallurgical coal and iron ore Pursuing market based pricing mechanisms Balance sheet and cash flow to invest through the cycle Hay Point Coal Terminal Goldman Sachs JBWere Australasian Investment Forum, March 21 Slide 21

22