CHANGING IRELAND 83 NOTES AND REFERENCES
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1 CHANGING IRELAND 83 (the central and inner areas), with a reduction of 47.0% overall. It was most marked in the controlled schools, and there are now no pupils attending such schools in the central area of the city. The outer ring experienced a lesser decline of 29.5%. In 1971, 32% of Belfast's 5-9 year old primary school pupils attended schools in the inner city, but by 1978 this figure had fallen to 26%, with a corresponding rise from 68% to 74% in the outer areas. There appears to be little variation in sectoral decrease when controlled and maintained schools are considered together. Maintained schools, however, suffered a decline of almost 60% in their numbers in the eastern sector. The greatest sectoral decrease among controlled school pupils was that of almost 50% in the Catholic west, despite one of the schools now being attended exclusively by Catholic pupils. However, relatively few numbers have been affected in these cases, the tendency being for both Catholics and Protestants to move away from areas in which they form a small minority. The smallest decrease (5.6%) is shown in numbers of maintained school pupils in the outer south, considered to be an area comparatively free from violence. Among pupils attending controlled schools, the movement of population outwards is exemplified by the decrease of 47.9% in the inner Protestant west, compared with a much lesser decrease of 20.4% in the outer Protestant west. Yet in some areas the gain by immigration is offset by the ageing of children in the longer-established housing estates, as in the outer Catholic west. Movement of population, together with the declining birth rate, has brought problems for those concerned with school management. Even if the fall in the birth rate is not sustained, its effects will be felt for many years to come. The Belfast Education and Library Board is now being faced with the difficult task of 'management of contraction.' NOTES AND REFERENCES J. A. E. ORR and F. W. BOAL Queen's University, Belfast 1 Northern Ireland Registrar General, Registrar General's quarterly return for Northern Ireland, No. 226 (2nd Quarter 1978), H.M.S.O., Belfast, ' Northern Ireland Housing Executive, Belfast household survey 1978 (preliminary report), Belfast, Recorded in the annual reports of the Northern Ireland Registrar General for the years , H.M.S.O., Belfast. ' Belfast Education and Library Board, School enrolments Belfast : Vol. 1, Controlled primary!secondary; Vol. 2, Maintained primary'secondary, Belfast, s According to enrolments recorded in January 1971 and January 1978 respectively, but listed in the reports of the Belfast Education and Library Board as enrolments in 1970 and PLANNED RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS IN DUBLIN The past decade and a half has seen the development of a considerable number of planned shopping centres throughout the Republic of Ireland. Within these developments two locational trends have emerged. Initially many of the centres were located in the suburbs of the larger urban areas or in off-central area sites in smaller towns. However, since the mid-seventies a trend towards in-town centres has emerged as planners, developers and local businessmen attempt to counteract the problems of suburban competition.
2 84 CHANGING IRELAND The two trends are best seen working in conjunction in the large cities of Dublin, Cork and Limerick, and it is in Dublin, with its substantial population, that the pattern is most clearly exemplified. The first in-town centre developed in Dublin was the Dun Laoghaire shopping centre which was opened in However, by that time twenty other centres had been opened in the suburbs of greater Dublin or in its commuter communities such as Bray. The first planned suburban shopping centre was opened at Stillorgan in With an area of 109,000 square feet it still remains one of the city's largest suburban centres, surpassed only by Ballymun and Donaghmede. In the same year three other centres were developed at Cornelscourt, Phibsborough and Finglas. The Cornelscourt centre was built by Stores when they failed to rent accommodation in Stillorgan and represents the first of a number of centres that have been constructed not by development companies but by supermarket organisations with the company's own store being the anchorman. The late sixties represented a lull in shopping centre construction and it was not until 1969 that any further centres were opened. From 1969 to 1976, though, there has been at least one centre opened each year and, as Table 1 indicates, years such as 1969, 1972, 1973, 1974 and 1976 each saw two new centres being opened. The year 1977 represents something of a watershed in suburban shopping centre development for it was in that year that Albert Gubay's 3 Guys discount operation came to Ireland. The 3 Guys company were committed to developing their own shopping centres initially in the Dublin area and subsequently outside the capital and their arrival provoked considerable disquiet amongst previously established supermarket operators. The company opened six centres in greater Dublin during in Firhouse, Bray, Lucan, Ballybrack, Ballyfcrmot and Finglas. All the centres consisted of a standardised warehouse-style discount store of some 22,000 square feet and additional unit shops which made the overall centre sizes range from 26,000 to 35,800 square feet. Three other centres were also opened in suburban Dublin during 1977 and 1978; two in the expanding western new towns of Blanchardstown and Tallaght and the third centre in Rathmines. Although the Rathmines centre had been built three years earlier it was not officially opened until 1978 due to problems with some lettings. It perhaps indicated that suburban shopping centres were reaching saturation point by this time and that some developers were making inaccurate judgements in their locational strategies. Certainly since 1978 only one other centre, the 3 Guys development in Kilbarrack, has been opened in suburban Dublin. As Figure 1 illustrates, the majority of greater Dublin suburban centres are relatively small, only four having more than 100,000 square feet of selling space Stillorgan, Ballymun, Northside, and Donaghmede, and this last named centre has only achieved this size by being expanded from its original 82,500 square feet. By comparison twenty of the centres are smaller than 50,000 square feet. The structure of many of the centres is simply that of a single supermarket acting as anchorman and a number of specialist unit shops being appended to the large store. The 3 Guys developments have taken this a stage further with 'concession' shops within their discount stores, these shops selling bread, meat and vegetables. A number of the larger centres, and notably the older centres, also have a multiple non-fashion clothing store as a second anchorman in the development. In the Stores developments this is naturally their own company; however, in many of the other centres it is Penneys who are linked to super-
3 CHANGING IRELAND 85 Figure 1 markets as a part of the Galen Weston Associated British Foods retail empire. In a few of the centres a second supermarket is also present; however, this is not a policy that any of the supermarket organisations like to encourage and it has enhanced the attraction to these companies of developing their own centres or at least of dictating to the developer what other trades may and may not locate in the centre. Most of these other trades comprise convenience goods such as confectioners and butchers, or durable goods outlets including hardware, non-fashion clothing and electrical goods. As such the move initially of foodstuffs from the city centre to the suburbs has been followed increasingly by a movement out of durable goods shops. A major fear on the part of all concerned with the city centre's well-being is that eventually only those shops with the largest hinterland population requirements selling the highest order goods will be left in the city centre retail area. To date, no department store has located in any of Dublin's suburban centres; however, Roches Stores have already committed themselves to occupying 40,000 square feet in the 100,000 square foot Wilton suburban shopping centre in Cork and it appears likely that this trend will be repeated in the Dublin region with the development of town centres for the three western new towns. The three new towns of Tallaght, Ronanstown and Blanchardstown are each destined to have populations of some 100,000 by the end of the century,
4 86 CHANGING IRELAND TABLE i DUBLIN SHOPPING CENTRES Date of opening Name of centre Size (in square feet) Supermarket chains Multiple nonfashion clothing chains 1966 Stillorgan 109,000 Pcnneys Cornelscourt Phibsborough 36,000 Pcnneys Finglas (Main) 40, Ballymun 127,000 PQ Discount () Rathfarnham 35,800 Pcnneys 1970 Northside 105, Dundrum Penneys 1972 Kilbarrack 42,200 Bayside 25,000 «973 Donaghmede* 120,000 Orwell 20, Crumlin 84,000 Killiney 22, Ballintecr 30, Roselawn 40,000 Bray (New Centre) 45, Blanchardstown 34,000 Firhouse 28,000 Bray 28,100 Dun Laoghaire 113, Kilnamanagh 70,000 Lucan 26,900 * Donaghmedc shopping centre was 82,500 square feet when built; it is planned to expand the centre eventually to 170,000 square feet.
5 CHANGING IRELAND 87 Ballybrack 35,800 Ballyfcrmot 26,000 Finglas 29,600 Tallaght 36,000 Rathmincs Kilbarrack (3 Guys) 30,000 3 Guys'Tesco Irish Life Mall 83,000 and town centres of up to 650,000 square feet are planned for each. Although the retail component is to be developed in stages, already there is an outline planning application for 250,000 square feet of retail, leisure and commercial activity space in Blanchardstown Town Centre and, at the time of writing, the successful tenderer for the Tallaght Town Centre scheme of initially between 250,000 square feet and 350,000 square feet is due to be announced any day. With two regional-scale retail developments by the mid-eighties and a third at Ronanstown due to be subsequently developed, the challenge to the city centre is clear. Certainly centres on the scale of those in the new towns will require one or more department stores as their anchormen and then the necessity for the suburban dweller to shop in the city centre will be reduced even further. The challenge from the suburbs is being met, at least in part, by the development of purpose-built in-town shopping centres. This trend is one which has seen success in a number of British cities, including Newcastle and Nottingham. In greater Dublin two such centres already exist in Dun Laoghaire and in the northern part of Dublin city centre, and two other schemes in central Dublin are at various stages of development. The Dun Laoghaire shopping centre is located in the heart of the town's central area and provides 113,500 square feet of shopping. Although an environmentally attractive covered centre, it has not been as successful as initially anticipated by the developers. Its major problem lies in the fact that the anchor tenant is a supermarket and not a department store, for given its position in the town centre and the relative size of the development, a supermarket is an insufficient magnet to consumers. Probably far greater success has been achieved by the Irish Life Mall, some 83,000 square feet of shopping space located in the Irish Life Centre, complete with direct access from an underground carpark. With a captive clientele working in the office complex, the mall has concentrated particularly upon fashion clothing boutiques, upmarket housewares and has a stationer-bookseller as the anchor tenant. Adjoining Henry Street, the northern central area's most important shopping street, the same company are developing the 220,000 square feet Moore Street centre. With two department stores as anchormen to the development in addition to the three which already exist within a half-mile distance, this in-town centre is likely to strengthen the importance of the northside retail area considerably. It was feared that the development might even upset the equilibrium which exists in central Dublin retailing between the popular Henry Street shopping area and the more prestigious Grafton Street shopping district to the south of the River Liffey. However, the marketing within the last few months of the 4.25 acre Lambert Jones site at the southern end
6 88 CHANGING IRELAND of Grafton Street will almost certainly assure the maintenance of the equilibrium. Whilst details of the development have yet to be announced, some 460,000 square feet are available for development. Although there will certainly be both office and residential components in the complex, it will be the retail component that will bring the greater financial return for the developer and, in this particular location in Dublin's city centre, shopping facilities are likely to form the cornerstone of the development. The challenge of the suburbs therefore looks like continuing, primarily in the form of regional-scale centres in the new towns rather than the continued development of small convenience-style centres within the continuous built-up area of Dublin. However, confidence in the city centre is evident, with planners, developers and financial institutions prepared to back their judgement by constructing the Moore Street shopping centre and what may well become eventually the Lambert Jones Centre. The lessons of the Dun Laoghaire in-town centre, particularly in the context of the importance of retail mix, will no doubt have been learnt and the mistakes not repeated in the Dublin city-centre developments. A. J. PARKER University College, Dublin INDUSTRIAL AND HARBOUR DEVELOPMENT IN CORK The urban and economic development of Cork has traditionally been strongly related to its port function. This trend is likely to continue, due to the increasing importance being attached to Ireland's external trading relations, and to technical developments in shipping which have made sites adjacent to deep-water facilities particularly attractive for major industrial development. Cork Harbour is eminently suitable for such development, since it is a deep, sheltered harbour, stretching some 20 km from the inner quays to the entrance at Roches Point. Its position on the south coast gives access to major international shipping routes, whilst the airport adds to the area's external communication linkages. Internal communications are well served via four national primary routes which focus on the city, and by the C.I.E. rail network. Proximity to Cork city furthermore allows industrialists in the harbour area to avail of the large labour market and the service and cultural facilities of the Irish Republic's second largest city. Finally, the current implementation of the Harbour Development Plan 1, prepared by the Cork Harbour Commissioners, and possessing full government support, enhances the prospects for the harbour, as do the possibilities of industry utilising natural gas from the Old Head of Kinsale gas field. In 1978, Cork Harbour handled approximately 40% (5.37 million tonnes) of the country's sea trade (excluding oil shipment at Bantry), and possessed the largest concentration of heavy industry in the Republic. Developments in the ig6os In the 1960s Cork was selected as one of the two national primary growth centres outside Dublin. Several reports recognised the growth potential of Greater Cork, and supported the concept of large-scale investment and industrial development for the area 2. Between 1960 and 1973, the South West region secured the largest total employment, floorspace and grants paid in grant aided industry for any of the I.D.A. planning regions 3. By 1973,
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