Whenuapai Structure Plan Business Land Assessment

Transcription

1 Whenuapai Structure Plan Business Land Assessment Prepared for: Auckland Council Date: May 2016 Status: Draft

2 Whenuapai Structure Plan Business Land Assessment Auckland Council Document reference: ACL Date of this version: May 2016 Report author(s): Derek Foy Disclaimer Although every effort has been made to ensure accuracy and reliability of the information contained in this report, neither Market Economics Limited nor any of its employees shall be held liable for the information, opinions and forecasts expressed in this report. Market Economics Limited Level 5, 507 Lake Road PO Box , Takapuna Auckland 0740, NZ P

3 Contents 1 INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND OBJECTIVE METHODOLOGY REFERENCES WHENUAPAI CATCHMENT NEARBY CENTRES CATCHMENT EXTENT SEM OUTPUT CENTRE DEFINITIONS AUCKLAND FLOORSPACE BY CENTRE TYPE ACTIVITY TYPES SUMMARY OF CENTRE TYPES MARKET GROWTH PROJECTIONS DATA SOURCE HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS DEMAND ASSESSMENT SPENDING POWER RETAIL DEMAND PROJECTIONS TOTAL SUSTAINABLE FLOORSPACE PROJECTIONS LOCALLY SUSTAINABLE FLOORSPACE PROJECTIONS LAND AREA REQUIRED BUSINESS LAND DEMAND... 29

4 6.1 BACKGROUND BUSINESS LAND DEMAND CONTEXT LAND AREA REQUIRED CONCLUSION Figures FIGURE 1.1: WHENUAPAI SHA... 4 FIGURE 1.2: WHENUAPAI CONTEXTUAL PLAN STUDY AREA... 5 FIGURE 1.3: WHENUAPAI DRAFT LAND USE CONCEPT PLAN... 6 FIGURE 1.4: WHENUAPAI INDICATIVE STAGING PLAN... 6 FIGURE 2.1: WHENUAPAI CATCHMENTS FIGURE 3.1: CENTRES RANKED BY TOTAL GFA FIGURE 3.2: AUCKLAND RETAIL AND SERVICES GFA BY CENTRE TYPE FIGURE 3.3: ACTIVITY MIX BY CENTRE TYPE (GFA) FIGURE 4.1: WHENUAPAI STUDY AREA HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS FIGURE 5.1: TOTAL DEMAND RESIDENT IN WHENUAPAI LOCAL CENTRE CATCHMENT ($M) FIGURE 5.2: TOTAL DEMAND RESIDENT IN WHENUAPAI SOUTH CENTRE CATCHMENT ($M) FIGURE 5.3: FLOORSPACE SUPPORTED IN ALL LOCATIONS BY WHENUAPAI LOCAL CENTRE CATCHMENT DEMAND (M 2, GFA) FIGURE 5.4: FLOORSPACE SUPPORTED IN ALL LOCATIONS BY WHENUAPAI SOUTH CATCHMENT DEMAND (M 2, GFA) FIGURE 5.5: FLOORSPACE SUPPORTED IN WHENUAPAI LOCAL CENTRE BY LOCAL DEMAND (M 2, GFA) FIGURE 5.6: FLOORSPACE SUPPORTED IN WHENUAPAI SOUTH CENTRE BY LOCAL DEMAND (M 2, GFA) FIGURE 5.7: LAND AREA REQUIRED IN WHENUAPAI CENTRE (HA) FIGURE 6.1: AUCKLAND LIGHT INDUSTRY LAND DEMAND ( , HA) FIGURE 6.2: INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT LAND AREA REQUIREMENTS... 32

5 FIGURE 7.1: WHENUAPAI CENTRE SUSTAINABLE FLOORSPACE (M 2, MID-POINTS)... 34

6 1 Introduction Market Economics (M.E) was commissioned by Auckland Council to provide an assessment of the business land requirements in the Whenuapai Structure Plan area, with a focus on assessing the sustainable floorspace in centres that will serve the Whenuapai community. 1.1 Background Whenuapai is a predominantly rural area adjacent to the north-western fringe of the Auckland Rural Urban Boundary (RUB), and the predominant zoning under the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan (PAUP) of the area is Future Urban. The RNZAF Base Auckland (Whenuapai Air Force base) is one of the major land uses in the area (nearly 300 ha), and many of the residential dwellings in Whenuapai now exist to house base personnel, although there are also established areas of civilian housing, many of which are larger lots and lifestyle blocks. Apart from the Airbase, the most significant economic activities in the area include various types of horticulture, although these have declined significantly in the last 15 years. The Future Urban Zoning is an indication of the expected future form of Whenuapai. That zoning will facilitate a significant amount of development in Whenuapai, and will result in ongoing conversion from rural activities to urban uses such as residential and business land. One step towards this was the creation of a Special Housing Area (SHA) in Whenuapai, as announced by Auckland Council in May 2014 as part of the third tranche of SHAs around Auckland. Subsequent a Plan Variation was lodged to allow for development of 650 dwellings to the west of Totara Rd, between Dale and Brigham Creek Roads. The SHA also includes land to the immediate east of Totara Rd, on the northern side of Brigham Creek Rd, opposite the Whenuapai shops (Figure 1.1). Figure 1.1: Whenuapai SHA 4

7 However, the SHA is only a small part of a much larger growth area of 1,606ha, of which the Future Urban Zone accounts for 1,313ha (Figure 1.2). Of that area, 296ha is within the Whenuapai Airbase designation, and is not available for other uses, leaving 1,017ha potentially available for urban uses. Figure 1.2: Whenuapai Contextual Plan Study Area 1 The Whenuapai Draft Land Use Concept Plan (Figure 1.3) has been prepared to show possible future land uses, including four key changes: 101ha of medium density residential development at the western end of the Hobsonville Road corridor. 387ha of Light Industry business land in the triangle between SH16, SH18 and Brigham Creek Road, and north of Westgate. 377ha of residential land at Whenuapai North (north of Brigham Creek road and west of the Whenuapai Airbase) and a new local centre. 92ha of residential land in the south east of Whenuapai. Those areas do not include provision for roads and services, and actual developable land is expected to be approximately two-thirds of the above areas. Development is expected to occur in stages over the next 30 years, as market demand and developer capacity permits, as discussed in the Whenuapai Redhills Strategic Framework (WRSF) (Figure 1.4). 1 Rapid Response Contextual Plan Whenuapai, Figure 1, page 2 5

8 Figure 1.3: Whenuapai Draft Land Use Concept Plan 2 Figure 1.4: Whenuapai Indicative Staging Plan 3 2 Rapid Response Contextual Plan Whenuapai, Appendix A 3 Whenuapai Redhills Strategic Framework, Figure 8, page 14 6

9 The areas shown in Figure 1.4 form the basis of the areas within Whenuapai that are referred to in this report, and are those defined in the WRSF: Area 1: Scott Point. Area 2: Whenuapai Village SHA (to the immediate north of the existing Whenuapai shops. Area 3: Part of Redhills (not in the study area for this assessment). Area 4: Whenuapai South: the area south of SH18. Area 5: Whenuapai Business: the western half of the area immediately north of SH18, extending as far north as the Whenuapai shops. This business area is unlikely to be used for residential, given noise contours for the neighbouring Airbase. Area 6: Whenuapai East: the eastern half of the area immediately north of SH18. Area 7: Whenuapai North: the existing Whenuapai residential area to the north of the Airbase. Area 8: Whenuapai North (Brigham Creek): the area north of Brigham Creek Road and west of the Airbase (excluding the SHA). Area 9: Whenuapai West: split into two parts, the Kennedy s Road Peninsula (east of SH16) is in the study area, the balance is west of SH16, and is not in the study area. The future population of Whenuapai will be significantly greater than it is now, and this population will require good access to retail goods and household services close to where they live to support their day to day needs. The only retail supply in Whenuapai at present is the Whenuapai shops, and these will not provide enough space to cater for the demands of the projected future Whenuapai population. To cater for this future demand a larger retail centre will be required in Whenuapai (called the Whenuapai centre in this report), and potentially also one or more additional, smaller neighbourhood centres. These centres, and their appropriate size and role, are the subject of this assessment. 1.2 Objective The objectives of this assessment are to: Assess the appropriate size and role of the Whenuapai centre (in terms of floorspace, land area, range and quantum of retail and service activities, and timing) to provide for the current and future needs of the Whenuapai population. This assessment will include any recommendations as to floorspace limits on activities. Assess the amount of business land that will be required to provide for 6,000 new jobs in the area. 7

10 1.3 Methodology To determine the appropriate amount of retail that should be provided for in Whenuapai, our approach was to: Identify the location, role and range of activities located in all current and planned future retail centres in the area (extending to Westgate, Kumeu and Upper Harbour Bridge). Using this understanding of other centres, and considerations of proximity and natural barriers, identify the spatial extent of the Whenuapai centre s catchment. This takes into account the place in the centres hierarchy of these other centres, and therefore their roles and catchments. Quantify the total demand (in dollar terms) resident in the catchment now and in the future out to This process used M.E s Market Meter, a proprietary retail model which quantifies retail demand by retail storetype and to a detailed spatial resolution (section 1.3.1). Translate that demand (in dollar terms) into a floorspace equivalent (current and projected), using sales productivity data ($ sales/m 2 GFA) from M.E s Auckland Spatial Economy Model ( SEM, as described in section 1.3.2). Assess the share of the locally resident floorspace demand that would be served locally, as opposed to that which will be served in all other locations. This places the Whenuapai centre in a broader supply environment in recognition of the fact that not all of the spend resident locally would ever be spent in the Whenuapai centre. This assessment takes into account the expected development of other centres within Whenuapai to serve a more local convenience role, and applies estimates of local demand retention from the SEM. Translate that locally-served floorspace demand into the land area required to provide that quantum of floorspace in each year. We note that Retail in this report is used for simplicity as a label that refers to both retail goods (such as food and clothing) and household services (such as hairdressers and drycleaners). Our assessment also makes allowance for some limited supply of non-retail activities in Whenuapai s centre(s), such as real estate agents and small amounts of professional offices (e.g. medical, lawyer), as is consistent with distributions observed in other Auckland centres Market Meter The demand projections used in this assessment have been sourced from M.E s Market Meter tool. Market Meter is a proprietary tool that synthetises all of M.E s retail demand data in a single dataset, providing market demand estimates and projections for 42 retail storetypes at a meshblock level, and accounts for all retail spending by households, 8

11 businesses and international and domestic tourists. Household spending is divided into components of total spending power from home and from work. Demand data in Market Meter are calculated based on: The number of consumers (households, businesses, workers and tourists) resident in each location. This data comes from Census 2013 and SNZ household projections (for households) and SNZ s Business Frame (businesses and workers). While residential consumers are by far the most dominant component of total demand, it is important that the other components are also included in the assessment. Meshblocks socio-demographic composition. This socio-demography applies 210 segments defined by age (six segments), household composition (seven segments) and income (five segments), from Census 2013 data. The spending power of each consumer segment (households and non-household consumers). The spending power of each segment is sourced from customised output from Statistic s NZ s (SNZ) Household Economic Survey, and calibrated at a national level to total retail spending identified in SNZ s Retail Trade Survey. Economic prospects and expected short to medium term spending trends (such as an increase in spending per household). These trends are based on a range of macroeconomic indicators and consensus forecasts of the economic outlook, and drive spend projections. The output used in this assessment is a meshblock level dataset of total retail demand arising from each meshblock in Auckland from the base year (2016) and then five-yearly out to a 2041 horizon Auckland Spatial Economy Model M.E s Auckland Spatial Economy Model quantifies the range of activities and amount of sales and floorspace in Auckland centres and other non-centre areas, and provides the supply-side of the demand-supply picture. The Model is structured around centres and non-centre areas, and applies a centres hierarchy (from largest to smallest centres): The Auckland CBD is Auckland s regional centre, and the largest centre in the Model. In the SEM the CBD is comprised of multiple precincts, and makes a distinction between the spatial Core and Fringe areas. For the purposes of this study the precinct distinction is not important, and the Core and Fringe have been presented as aggregate areas. Metropolitan centres. These are the 10 Metropolitan centres identified in the Unitary Plan, of which the nearest to Whenuapai is Westgate. These are the largest centres in Auckland outside the Auckland CBD. Town centres. There are 33 of these identified in the Unitary Plan, and they are the suburban centres which serve catchments of around 10-20,000 households each, although there is a large variation in size and range of stores. These centres are 9

12 typically located on main arterial roads and the zoning provides for a wide range of activities. Local centres. There are 54 of these in the Unitary Plan, serving catchments of around 5-15,000 households, again with a large variation in size. These centres typically exist to supply the local convenience needs of surrounding residential areas, including local retail, offices, food and beverage, and smaller-scale supermarkets. Neighbourhood centres, of which there are around 200 in Auckland. These are much smaller centres serving catchments typically of fewer than 2,500 households. These are typically small blocks of shops (e.g. the current Hobsonville shops which have around 5 tenancies) which provide residents and passers-by with daily retail and commercial service needs. Satellite centres and rural towns and villages. These are identified in the Plan as centres outside the RUB. A centre high in the hierarchy fulfils a high-level role, but also all of the lower centre roles as well. So consumers living in or very near the CBD can satisfy in the CBD their demand for the types of goods and services that are also found in town, local and neighbourhood centres. This effectively means that the CBD can be thought of as having a different catchments for each of these roles. This distinction is incorporated into our assessment. The non-centres in the SEM include destination centres (especially large format centres such as Constellation Drive), arterial strips (e.g. Barry s Point Rd), business and office parks, areas of light and heavy industry, and special activity areas (such as marinas, airports, universities and hospitals). Residential and rural areas fall outside the centre and business area typology, and are classified as non-economic areas. Together these centres and non-centre employment areas are the location for the vast majority of Auckland s economic activity, and almost all of the retail activity in the Region. This structure then provides the understanding of where in Auckland retail demand is supplied, and to which types of centres and other areas Auckland consumers direct their demand. The SEM quantifies total employment in each location, and from that applies productivity factors to derive estimates of total centre sales and gross floor area in each centre. These productivity estimates have been built up over long periods from our retail assessments throughout Auckland (and wider NZ). Output from the SEM then is estimates of the employment, sales and floorspace in each centre in Auckland, by storetype. 1.4 References This document draws on information provided by Auckland Council as to the quantum and timing of growth expected in the Structure Plan Area. The core assumptions are guided by information provided in: 10

13 Rapid Response Contextual Plan Whenuapai, 1 October 2014, Auckland Council. Whenuapai Redhills Strategic Framework, March 2015, Auckland Council. This is a confidential document, intended for internal Council use only. Future Urban Land Supply Strategy, adopted 12 November 2015, Auckland Council. Discussions at an internal Council workshop on 21 April 2016, which the author attended. The quantum and timing of growth in Whenuapai are at this stage relatively uncertain, and will be influenced by a number of factors. Key factors include: Infrastructure constraints: significant new infrastructure (especially wastewater) is required to allow development to occur, and the timing and capacity of this will be a core constraint on development. Development sequence: development will need to occur in a certain (although flexible) order to be consistent with infrastructure provision, and also for strategic reasons, so that certain key development areas are developed so as to maximise their appeal to the market. Labour availability: a very large amount of residential capacity will come on line in the next two decades in north-west Auckland, including Redhills, Whenuapai, Hobsonville, Kumeu and Huapai. Labour availability may be a constraint on achievable development rates. Attractiveness to the market: while there appears to be a housing shortage in Auckland now, there is still the risk that dwellings built in Whenuapai may be less attractive to the market than those in other places. To account for likely variation of these factors, we present outputs from three growth scenarios, which take into account likely variation in development timing and capacity. Of these, the Medium scenario represents the most likely future outcome, given the best current thinking on capacity. The scenarios are informed, where possible, by what are at the date of writing the best estimates available, as contained in the Whenuapai Redhills Strategic Framework (WRSF). We note that document is confidential, and is for internal Council use only. A copy was provided to us for use in informing our scenario definitions. The work informed the published Future Urban Land Supply Strategy (FULSS), and is consistent with data in that document. 11

14 2 Whenuapai Catchment 2.1 Nearby Centres The only retail presence in Whenuapai at present is the small block of shops around which the Whenuapai centre will grow, and a small block (two stores) in the northern part of Whenuapai on Puriri Rd. A large proportion of the spend currently resident in Whenuapai therefore leaves Whenuapai, and is directed at the next nearest centres at Westgate (to the west of the SH18 and SH16 junction) and Hobsonville, as well as other large centres further afield. Only a very small part of Whenuapai demand is likely to be directed to other town or local centres, because they are much less accessible. Very little of Whenuapai s spend is likely to be directed to Kumeu (5km to the north), which is less proximate than Westgate (1.5km south), meaning that Kumeu is not a natural destination for any significant part of Whenuapai residents spend. The location of these centres is a key determinant of the spatial extent of the Whenuapai centre s catchment Westgate The Westgate centre is one of the ten Metropolitan Centres in the PAUP, the largest centre type within the spatial plan hierarchy (aside from the Auckland CBD). Historically Westgate has been dominated by large format retail space, but is now developing significant supply of smaller speciality stores, and will increasingly provide a full range of community services and social infrastructure as well. Westgate will grow to be a significant centre within Auckland, and will contain a number of precincts: The Town Centre Precinct: the existing Westgate LFR shopping centre (35,700m 2 of retail GFA, and 45,000m 2 total GFA); the integrated North-West Mall (27,000m 2 net leasable area) which opened in spring 2015; the Town Square (45,000m 2 ), which will have community facilities including a library and Stage 2 of the North-West mall, which is scheduled to open in spring The Commerce Precinct: Approximately 78,000m 2 of commercial office space. Large Format Retail: 55,000m 2, including Harvey Norman (opened in autumn 2016). Home/Build/Trade: 67,000m 2 is planned, although only Mitre 10 Mega and Palmers Planet are open. Business: 80,000m 2 of business land (zoned Light Industry). A small residential zone which seeks to exclude retail and commercial uses apart from in a small buffer area. A Mixed Use zone, where there is a Pak n Save, and an additional 13ha available for development along Fred Taylor Drive, in the west of the centre. 12

15 In total then it is likely that well over 200,000m 2 of retail gross floor area (GFA) could locate within Westgate. Westgate is already the destination for much of the spend resident in Whenuapai, and this will continue and increase as Westgate grows and a broader range of businesses open in there. However, because Westgate is further from most of the population living in Whenuapai than the Whenuapai centre is, Whenuapai consumers will direct much of their retail spend in certain categories towards a Whenuapai centre, especially food and groceries and other frequently purchased products (i.e. the town and local centre type products identified in section 3.3). The Westgate centre then will constrain the extent of the Whenuapai centre s catchment to the west and south, and limit the role played by, and therefore range of storetypes that will open in, the Whenuapai centre Hobsonville Historically there has been only a small block of six shops at Hobsonville, although in spring 2015 the Hobsonville Countdown opened as the first part of the new Hobsonville Local Centre. The Countdown development includes an estimated 4,000m 2 of other retail and services space, including a number of takeaway outlets and cafes, liquor, household services (gym, hair and beauty, massage), medical (dentist, doctor) and professional offices (mortgage broker and builder). Development of this part of the centre is nearing completion. Further development within the centre is underway, and we understand will ultimately include a New World supermarket and other additional retail between the New World and Countdown. The Hobsonville centre will become the destination for some of the spend resident in Whenuapai, (e.g. the Sinton Road area that borders SH 18) although the SH18 Corridor will act as a physical barrier for Whenuapai residents who would have to cross SH18 at Brigham Creek Road to get from Whenuapai to Hobsonville. For most Whenuapai residents the Whenuapai centre would be closer and a more popular retail destination, although the Hobsonville centre will therefore act as a constraint on the eastern extent of the Whenuapai centre s catchment. 2.2 Catchment Extent The spatial extent of the Whenuapai Local centre s catchment will also be limited by the area s major roads and topography. The upper reaches of the Waitemata Harbour define the northern edge of the catchment, while SH18 (to the south) and SH16 (to the west) define the southern boundaries of the catchment, while the presence of the large Hobsonville Local centre in the east will limit the extent of the catchment in that direction (Figure 2.1). It is likely that residents living south of SH18 (Whenuapai South, the area around the southern part of Trig Rd) would not visit the Whenuapai Local centre very regularly, instead favouring closer centres such as Hobsonville or Westgate. The very limited presence of any retail in Whenuapai South (areas 4a and 4b in Figure 2.1) and in the neighbouring West Harbour area would potentially support a small centre somewhere in Whenuapai South, to support 13

16 efficient access to convenience retail by residents in that area. That (potential) centre is referred to in this assessment as the Whenuapai South centre. Figure 2.1: Whenuapai Catchments 14

17 3 SEM Output In this section we summarise output from the M.E Auckland Spatial Economy Model (SEM, described in section 1.3.2) to provide some context as to what type of centre might develop in Whenuapai, and the share of Whenuapai spend that might be retained within Whenuapai. 3.1 Centre Definitions Using the SEM, we have summarised the total gross floor area (GFA) of retail and services activities that is located in each centre across Auckland. The largest centre is the Auckland CBD, which has over 180,000m 2 of core retail 4 and hospitality 5 GFA, and around 410,000m 2 of total 6 GFA. The CBD Fringe has around 75,000m 2 of core retail and hospitality, and 120,000m 2 of total GFA. The next largest centres are Auckland s Metropolitan centres, which have up to 130,000m 2 of total GFA (Newmarket) (Figure 3.1). Figure 3.1: Centres Ranked by Total GFA 100,000 90,000 Metro. Centres Town Centres Local Centres 80,000 70,000 Centre GFA (m2) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 CBD Manukau New Lynn Sylvia Park St Lukes Whangaparoa Hunters Corner Birkenhead Pakuranga Otahuhu Manurewa Glen Eden Northcote Three Kings Avondale Marua Road Greenlane Eastridge Mt Eden St Heliers Mokoia Road Shops Drury Manukau Road Shops Market Road Shops Greville Road Mangere East Shops Belmont Northcross Windsor Park Beach Haven Hobsonville All but one (St Lukes) of the Town centres in the PAUP are less than 30,000m 2 GFA, and they broadly fall into two categories: the larger Town centres have 15,000m 2 + GFA, while the 4 Food and liquor retail and all comparison retail (all other retail categories except automotive, marine, garden centres and hardware/building supplies. 5 Cafes, restaurants, takeaways, pubs, bars and taverns. 6 Core retail and hospitality and automotive, marine, garden centres and hardware/building supplies, as well as household (hairdressers, drycleaners, clothing alterations etc.) and professional services (general practice, dental, physiotherapy, optometry, real estate, accounting and legal). 15

18 smaller Town centres tend to be between 5,000 and 15,000m 2. Figure 3.1 shows that size is a significant determinant of the classification of centres, however it is not the only determinant. Other factors that influence this categorisation include the range of activities (not just the area they occupy) present, historic factors, the presence of other centres nearby, and therefore the overall role these centres play for their community. In general terms Town centres have a broader range of goods, services and other businesses than Local centres, and therefore more floorspace. However, some Local centres are larger than the smaller Town centres. For example, the Greenlane, Balmoral and Eastridge Local centres 7 are all 10-12,000m 2 GFA, while a number of Town centres (e.g. Northcote, Mt Albert, Ellerslie and Avondale) are all less than 8,000m 2. For the purposes of this assessment we refer to the main centre in Whenuapai as the Whenuapai Local centre, although in our opinion it will assume a role of somewhere in between a large Local and a small Town centre. 3.2 Auckland Floorspace by Centre Type The Auckland CBD contains around 12% of total Auckland centres floorspace, while the largest single centre type is the 10 Metropolitan centres, which together have 23% of Auckland centres floorspace. Around 15% of GFA is in Town centres (average size around 16,000m 2, with an average catchment of around 11,000 households), and 8% is in Local centres (average size around 5,000m 2, average 5,000 households), These figures are used as the basis for estimating what proportion of the Whenuapai catchment s population is likely to be directed to centres in each level of the hierarchy, and therefore how much will be directed to the Whenuapai Local centre. Figure 3.2: Auckland Retail and Services GFA by Centre Type Average GFA per Centre (sqm) Share of Total Auckland GFA Average Households in Catchment CBD 410,000 12% 493,000 CBD Fringe 118,000 4% 493,000 Metropolitan 77,000 23% 45,000 Town 16,000 15% 11,000 Local 5,000 8% 5,000 Neighbourhood 1,000 3% 3,000 All Other areas 35% n/a Only the total centre GFA is shown in Figure 3.2, but in the assessment we applied the corresponding proportions for each of 42 storetypes in the SEM. As explained in section 2, the Local and Neighbourhood centre catchments were considered separately, so that the Whenuapai Local centre is assumed to capture (for example, using the data in Figure 3.2) 7 Not all of the centres in are labelled due to space constraints 16

19 somewhere between 8-15% of Whenuapai demand in its Local centre role, and then a further 3% of the total demand resident in the smaller Whenuapai Neighbourhood centre. Households in the north and west of Whenuapai are likely to support additional Neighbourhood centre space in those locations, and capture only 3% of the spend in their Neighbourhood catchment. 3.3 Activity Types There is a noticeable difference between the mix of activities in each of the centre types. The CBD is dominated by professional services businesses, with a significant proportion of hospitality businesses, but a small proportion of food and liquor businesses. Metropolitan centres are dominated by comparison retail (clothing, appliances, household goods etc.), while Local centres tend to have around one third of their floorspace devoted to food and liquor businesses and to have larger shares of centre space occupied by hospitality businesses (especially takeaways and fast food). Figure 3.3: Activity Mix by Centre Type (GFA) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CBD and Fringe Metropolitan Town Local Neighbourhood Satellite Food & Liquor Comparison Retail Hospitality Automotive Out Of Centre Household Services Professional Services The PAUP provides the activity status for activities in each type of centre. There are only small distinctions between Town and Local centres overall, with many commercial activities 8 permitted in both types of centres. Many of the other activities 9 that have a different status between centre types have only a small different in status, generally with a more permissive status in Town centres and a less permissive status in Local centres (e.g. Permitted vs 8 Commercial services, food and beverage, retail up to 450m 2, community, healthcare and education facilities, repair and maintenance services and light manufacturing 9 Entertainment facilities, garden centres, marine retail, vehicle sales, retail over 450m 2, trade suppliers 17

20 Discretionary or Restricted Discretionary). The only activities that are non-complying in Local centres but not in Town centres are large (over 500m 2 ) offices, storage facilities and hospitals. It is these rules that would influence the range of activities that will locate in the Whenuapai centre, and indicates that there would be little difference between that centre being a Town centre or a Local centre. 3.4 Summary of Centre Types There are some common differences between Town and Local centres (e.g. size, provision of comparison retail), although the distinction for other attributes is less clear. Town centres tend to be larger (averaging 16,000m 2, within a range of 5-30,000m 2 ) with a broader range of comparison retail goods, and a smaller proportion of their total space occupied by food and liquor and hospitality businesses. Local centres are generally smaller than Town centres, averaging around 5,000m 2, and to be more dominated by food and liquor retailers and hospitality businesses (especially takeaways and fast food). The treatment of Town and Local centres in the PAUP is very similar, and given the expected number of household in the Whenuapai centre s catchment, either centre type would be appropriate and consistent with existing zonings of other centres. This assessment assumes a role that is somewhere between a Local and Town centre role, in terms of the floorspace quantum and appropriate range of activities accommodated in it. The sustainable floorspace then yields land area estimates that would better ensure that adequate provision is made for retail and commercial space in Whenuapai, and that the area assessed does not understate future demand. 18

21 4 Market Growth Projections The largest component of retail demand is that supported by households, and so total retail demand, and therefore the sustainable floorspace supported by that demand, is strongly influenced by the household estimates and projections applied. For this study we have used dwelling projections provided in Council s Whenuapai Redhills Strategic Framework (WRSF) and the Future Urban Land Supply Strategy (FULSS), and then applied Low and High ranges to account for the uncertainty that is implicit in these base estimates. We have then assumed that one dwelling will yield one household, for the purposes of the retail assessment. 4.1 Data Source Household Estimates Base year (2016) household estimates are the estimate of the current number of households living in the study area. These are sourced from Statistics NZ s 2013-base household projections, sourced in April 2016 at a CAU level, and then disaggregated in our in-house modelling process to meshblock level, based on Census spatial distribution of population and households Household Projections The most important measure for this assessment is the total number of households that will ultimately establish in Whenuapai (i.e. the area s capacity), because that will determine the sustainable size of the area s centres. Other considerations are where within Whenuapai that growth will occur, and when, which will inform decision making about where within the broader Structure Plan area new centres should be provided for, and their timing. For this assessment we have used total capacity from the FULSS, which provides the most up-to-date estimates of the likely capacity of Whenuapai (8,100-9,600 dwellings). We have applied 9,600 dwellings as our medium yield scenario to ensure that the centre sizes are appropriate to cater to a high capacity scenario, rather than under-providing for centre space and inadequately servicing the community. The FULSS provides no spatial disaggregation of capacity within Whenuapai, and only a very coarse estimate of potential development timing, indicating that land will become available for developing in the second half of Decade One ( ). The WRSF provides a more detailed breakdown of potential development timing and location, and for this assessment we have applied those WRSF estimates to the total FULSS capacity estimates. We understand there is still considerable uncertainty in the timing of future development, and therefore in the arrival of new households, as well as the total ultimate capacity. There are a number of households already located in Whenuapai, mostly in the northern part and on Herald Island, and they support some retail and other centres-based activity 19

22 now. As growth in the area occurs, it is likely that many existing dwellings may be removed or subdivided, and that is accounted for in the total capacity estimates used. The amount of net additional growth used for this study is the total capacity less the existing households. No allowance is made for increased densities on Herald Island. These future household projections are then segmented to provide the breakdown required to assess the retail demand they will generate. That segmentation factors in projected changes in demography, such as the aging population, from Statistics NZ projections Employment Projections The FULSS provides only employment capacity estimates by time period, not by geographic location, so for our assessment we have relied on estimates provided in the WRSF, which splits out employment estimates for Whenuapai. 4.2 Household Projections The household projections derived from that process are provided in Figure 4.1. Those projections show that the current 1,370 households are projected to increase to around 9,830 by 2046, at an average growth rate of about 225 households per year. Figure 4.1: Whenuapai Study Area Household Projections Growth n % Whenuapai Village SHA ,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 1,150 1, % Whenuapai South ,140 1,400 1,400 1,400 1, % Whenuapai Business % Whenuapai East ,010 1,400 1, % Whenuapai North ,180 1,530 1, % Whenuapai North (Brigham Creek) ,110 2,330 3,240 3, % Whenuapai West % Herald Island % Whenuapai Study Area 1,370 1,970 2,760 3,920 5,980 8,180 9,830 6, % To account for uncertainty in the ultimate household growth, we also applied lower and higher capacity estimates to formulate low and high retail demand scenarios. Those scenarios use capacities that are ±7% about the medium scenario, giving projected household counts in 2041 of between 9,100 and 10,500 households. For this assessment we have applied a geographic segmentation that is consistent with the WRSF (as described in section 1.1). All areas are projected to experience significant household growth, with the exception of the Whenuapai Business area, where business rather than residential activities are planned to dominate. Of these areas, not all would be served by the main Whenuapai Local centre as their retail centre because they are closer to other centres: 20

23 Whenuapai South (1,400 households) is closer to Westgate, or potentially to a new centre south of SH18 that could also service West Harbour households. Whenuapai East (1,400 households) is closer to the Hobsonville Local centre. Of all of the households within the Whenuapai study area, around 7,000 would be expected to use the Whenuapai Local centre as their local retail centre. The average number of households served by Town centres (11,000) and Local centres (5,000) was summarised in section 3.2, and indicates that the Whenuapai centre could be classified as either centre type, but is more likely to function as a large Local rather than a small Town centre. There is no Whenuapai centre identified in the PAUP. Rather than supporting space in the Whenuapai Local centre, the 1,400 households within Whenuapai South area would, together with the nearly 3,000 households in West Harbour, support floorspace within either the Westgate Metropolitan centre or within a new centre within Whenuapai South. There currently no centres in West Harbour, and locals will either use Westgate (to the west), Hobsonville (to the north) or Royal Heights (to the south) for most of their local and convenience retail needs. There is potentially some merit in additional (limited) retail provision for these residents, even though they are very close to Westgate. A site within the Whenuapai South part of the study area could be a candidate to support a small neighbourhood centre to supply those convenience needs. The potential for a Whenuapai South centre is assessed in addition to the potential for a main Whenuapai Local centre in section Employment Projections The WRSF indicates a likely employment of between 5,100 and 6,600 workers in the study area s business land. It is unclear whether that includes the likely employment in the Local and any neighbourhood centres, although indicators are that it excludes such employment, because all of the jobs supported are listed as being in the Whenuapai Business area, and centre-based employment would likely be mostly outside that area. That employment growth is expected to occur in the decade from In the Whenuapai Business area, the capacity of 6,600 jobs equates to about 42 FTEs/ha over 157 ha (the total area is given as 168 ha in the WRSF, but includes 217 dwellings). The number of employees in Whenuapai s centres are discussed below, as that count is dependent on the size of the centres, as calculated in section 5. 21

24 5 Demand Assessment 5.1 Spending Power The demand projections used in this assessment are based on the household projections described in section 4, and retail spend profiles that have been derived from M.E s Market Meter demand projections model. The spending power of any population is strongly influenced by its socio-demographic composition, especially household income, average household size (number of family members), the age of family members, and the family type (single person, couples, one parent, two parent families etc.). All of these factors and changes in socio-demographic composition over time are taken into account in the Market Meter projections. However because, as explained in section 4, Whenuapai is a greenfields growth area and little is known about the future socio-demography of its households, we have applied spend profile borrowed from an established area to reflect what we believe its composition will look like. To derive an appropriate spending profile, we have analysed the spending profile of other similar areas nearby, including Hobsonville (where future residential growth has been anticipated for some type), Westgate, West Harbour and Lucken Point. We tested the sensitivity of applying the profile of each of those areas to Whenuapai s future households, and established that current Whenuapai households have a composition very similar to that of the other areas averaged. For the purposes of this assessment then, we applied that average socio-demographic composition of those nearby areas (across the Market Meter s 210 categories) to the future Whenuapai households to provide a spending profile for the future Whenuapai. 5.2 Retail Demand Projections It is estimated that households in the Whenuapai Local centre s catchment s will generate about $49m in retail 10 spending in The strong household growth in the catchment will drive a similarly strong increase in total retail demand resident in the catchment, and this is projected to increase to $107m in 2026, and $216m in 2036 (under a medium scenario yield). Once the area nears its residential capacity in 2046, just over $370m in retail spend will live in the catchment (Figure 5.1). Note that this is the total spend resident in the catchment, and not the spend that would be directed to any single retail destination. Under the higher yield scenario this resident retail demand might be as high as $123m in 2026, and $250m in 2036, before reaching $428m in Excluding household and professional services spend, for which no sales data is collected. The floorspace in these two categories is estimated directly from employment. 22

25 Figure 5.1: Total Demand Resident in Whenuapai Local Centre Catchment ($m) Growth Food and Liquor $ 14.3 $ 22.3 $ 30.9 $ 40.5 $ 61.7 $ 86.8 $ $ 92.6 Comparison Retail $ 13.2 $ 20.6 $ 29.2 $ 39.7 $ 60.0 $ 83.2 $ $ 88.7 Hospitality $ 4.7 $ 7.3 $ 10.1 $ 13.1 $ 20.0 $ 28.3 $ 34.9 $ 30.2 Core Retail and Hospitality $ 32.2 $ 50.2 $ 70.2 $ 93.2 $ $ $ $ Automotive $ 12.6 $ 19.6 $ 27.5 $ 36.9 $ 56.0 $ 78.0 $ 95.7 $ 83.2 Out Of Centre $ 3.9 $ 6.1 $ 8.8 $ 12.2 $ 18.3 $ 25.2 $ 30.8 $ 26.9 Total $ 48.7 $ 76.0 $ $ $ $ $ $ The households in Whenuapai South are excluded from that potential, given their separation from the Whenuapai Local centre and their better accessibility to Westgate. However as discussed above, those households, together with existing households in West Harbour, will together amount to a significant retail market resident in the area. Those households are projected to number 1,400 in Whenuapai South, and a further 3,360 in West Harbour, by Those 4,760 households would generate over $230m in retail spend, although again not all of that would be directed to any retail development in the area, especially given the close proximity of the area to Westgate (Figure 5.2). Figure 5.2: Total Demand Resident in Whenuapai South Centre Catchment ($m) Growth Food and Liquor $ 37.6 $ 39.5 $ 44.7 $ 57.1 $ 63.0 $ 65.5 $ 68.0 $ 30.4 Comparison Retail $ 34.9 $ 36.6 $ 41.5 $ 53.0 $ 58.4 $ 60.7 $ 63.1 $ 28.2 Hospitality $ 12.4 $ 13.0 $ 14.7 $ 18.8 $ 20.8 $ 21.6 $ 22.4 $ 10.0 Core Retail and Hospitality $ 85.0 $ 89.1 $ $ $ $ $ $ 68.5 Automotive $ 33.1 $ 34.7 $ 39.3 $ 50.2 $ 55.4 $ 57.6 $ 59.8 $ 26.7 Out Of Centre $ 10.4 $ 10.9 $ 12.3 $ 15.8 $ 17.4 $ 18.1 $ 18.8 $ 8.4 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Total Sustainable Floorspace Projections That retail spend resident in each part of Whenuapai will then support retail and services floorspace in a wide range of centres. Some of the spending will be directed to the Auckland CBD, parts will be directed to Auckland s Metropolitan centres, especially Westgate, while other parts will be spent in smaller centres, and especially those in Whenuapai (and potentially Whenuapai South). The demand resident locally in the Whenuapai Local centre s catchment (Figure 5.1) equates to around 9,100m 2 of gross floor area that is supported by Whenuapai residents in all locations in This is projected to increase to 20,100m 2 GFA by 2026, and 40,900m 2 by 2036 (under the Medium yield scenario). Once the area nears its residential capacity in 2046, some 70,100m 2 of retail and services floorspace will be supported in all locations across Auckland (Figure 5.3). That floorspace includes space for household and professional services (estimated from employment in those categories), for which sales turnover is not a meaningful metric. 23

26 Figure 5.3: Floorspace Supported in All Locations by Whenuapai Local Centre Catchment Demand (m 2, GFA) Growth Food and Liquor 1,200 1,900 2,700 3,500 5,400 7,600 9,300 8,100 Comparison Retail 2,400 3,700 5,200 7,100 10,800 15,000 18,300 15,900 Hospitality 1,100 1,700 2,400 3,100 4,700 6,700 8,300 7,200 Core Retail and Hospitality 4,700 7,300 10,300 13,700 20,900 29,300 35,900 31,200 Automotive 1,700 2,600 3,700 5,000 7,500 10,500 12,900 11,200 Out Of Centre 1,100 1,700 2,400 3,400 5,100 7,000 8,600 7,500 Household Services ,000 1,400 1,700 1,500 Professional Services 1,400 2,300 3,200 4,200 6,400 9,000 11,000 9,600 Total 9,100 14,200 20,100 26,900 40,900 57,200 70,100 61,000 The smaller Whenuapai South/West Harbour catchment would support around 29,000m 2 of gross floor area in all locations in 2026, nearly 41,000m 2 GFA by 2036, and 43,800m 2 by 2046 (Figure 5.4). Figure 5.4: Floorspace Supported in All Locations by Whenuapai South Catchment Demand (m 2, GFA) Growth Food and Liquor 3,300 3,400 3,900 5,000 5,500 5,700 5,900 2,600 Comparison Retail 6,300 6,600 7,500 9,500 10,500 10,900 11,400 5,100 Hospitality 2,900 3,100 3,500 4,500 4,900 5,100 5,300 2,400 Core Retail and Hospitality 12,500 13,100 14,900 19,000 20,900 21,700 22,600 10,100 Automotive 4,400 4,700 5,300 6,700 7,400 7,700 8,000 3,600 Out Of Centre 2,900 3,000 3,400 4,400 4,900 5,000 5,200 2,300 Household Services ,000 1,000 1, Professional Services 3,800 4,000 4,500 5,800 6,400 6,600 6,900 3,100 Total 24,200 25,400 28,800 36,800 40,600 42,000 43,800 19, Locally Sustainable Floorspace Projections Centre Size Of the total floorspace supported in all locations by the households in each catchment, only a part will be supported in centres within Whenuapai. That share would be likely to be around 15% (averaged across all storetypes) for the Whenuapai Local centre, but much lower (around 3%) for a centre in Whenuapai South or for small Neighbourhood centres. In addition to that As the Whenuapai resident population increases in the future, the sustainable floorspace in the Whenuapai Local centre is projected to increase from the current level of 1,500m 2 to 3,100m 2 by 2026, 6,400m 2 by 2036, and ultimately to 10,900m 2 once the area nears its residential capacity in 2046 (assuming a medium yield scenario) (Figure 5.5). 24

27 If higher dwelling yields are achieved, the sustainable floorspace in the Whenuapai centre could be as much as 12,400m 2 by 2046, 15% more than the medium scenario. That higher yield accounts for not only greater population in the area, but also higher local retention of demand and a slightly less efficient use of in-centre GFA. If lower dwelling yields are achieved, the sustainable floorspace in the Whenuapai centre might be 15% less than the medium scenario, or 9,400m 2 by Figure 5.5: Floorspace Supported in Whenuapai Local Centre by Local Demand (m 2, GFA) Growth Food and Liquor ,000 1,600 2,200 2,700 2,300 Comparison Retail ,300 1,900 2,600 3,200 2,800 Hospitality ,200 1,500 1,300 Core Retail and Hospitality 1,000 1,600 2,100 2,900 4,400 6,000 7,400 6,400 Automotive ,100 1,400 1,200 Out Of Centre Household Services Professional Services ,200 1,400 1,200 Total 1,500 2,400 3,100 4,300 6,400 8,800 10,900 9,400 As discussed, any centre in Whenuapai South would likely be much smaller, given the closer proximity to Westgate and smaller residental market in the area. A centre there would, assuming it was frequented by West Harbour households as their primary Neighbourhood centre, support up to 1,400m 2 GFA. Figure 5.6: Floorspace Supported in Whenuapai South Centre by Local Demand (m 2, GFA) Growth Food and Liquor Comparison Retail Hospitality Core Retail and Hospitality Automotive Out Of Centre Household Services Professional Services Total ,200 1,300 1,400 1, Applying a similar approach, small Neighbourhood centres would also be supported elsewhere within the study area, in addition to the above quantum of space identified for the Whenuapai Local centre. Indicatively two such Neighbourhood centres would be supported, of no more than m 2 each. Those centres would be best placed away from the Local centre, and ideally near areas of higher residential density. From early indications as to the potential layout of Whenuapai, potential locations for such centres might include (but not be limited to): 25