WAIKATO REGIONAL RETAIL STUDY PART A - ASSESSMENT

Transcription

1 WAIKATO REGIONAL RETAIL STUDY PART A - ASSESSMENT

2 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 2 of 185 WAIKATO REGIONAL RETAIL STUDY Prepared for : Hamilton City Council Waikato District Council Waipa District Council Matamata Piako District (Regarding the Morrinsville Area) March 2009 Prepared by Robert Speer and Rick Starr, Speer & Starr Consulting

3 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 3 of 185 WAIKATO REGIONAL RETAIL STUDY Introduction The primary purpose of the Waikato Regional Retail Study is to provide a reasonable guideline for how to meet the needs of ongoing retail development around the Region. To answer this question, several key objectives have been set : 1. Understand the current retail shopping habits of households - around Hamilton City - around Waikato District, - around Waipa District - and around Morrinsville Area. 2. Assess the existing retail network around the Study Region, including some understanding of retail spending potential and leakage between areas. 3. Assess the likely future growth demands influencing retailing around the Region, and identify likely retail space demands arising from such growth. 4. Consider the question of where to provide for new retail growth.

4 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 4 of 185 Report Content Executive Summary Part A Assessment 1. Existing Retail Network 2. Existing Shopping Patterns 3. Future Growth Demand Issues 4. Demand for Additional Retail Floorspace 5. Where to Provide for Future Floorspace Demand Appendix I - Appendix II - Hamilton City CBD, Shop-type and Shop-size Estimate of Existing Retail Floorspace Around Waikato Study Region Appendix III - FutureProof Exercise : Broad-Scale Planning to 2041 Part B Household Shopping Survey (separate report) 1. Methodology 2. Results 3. Copy of Questionnaire

5 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 5 of 185 Executive Summary 1. For the purposes of this study, the Waikato Region comprises Hamilton City, Waikato District and Waipa District, and the Morrinsville Area. 2. At a Regional perspective, the population distribution at 2006 Census was: Hamilton City 134,400 = 58% Waikato District 45,400 = 19% Waipa District 43,700 = 19% Morrinsville Area 9,360 = 4% 232, Population growth is a significant feature to the Region eg. between , the growth was: Hamilton City 13,000/+11.2% Waikato District 4,100/+10.3% Waipa District 3,530/+ 9.1% Morrinsville Area 435/+ 4.7% 21,065/+10.0% 4. The population distribution in areas surrounding the City are worthy of note: Waikato District : 30% live in two town centres; 70% live in rural areas : 60% live within 15-20minutes drive of the City Waipa District : 60% live in two town centres; 40% live in rural areas : 15% live within minutes drive of the City Morrinsville Area: 70% live in the town centre; 30% live in rural areas : 0% live within minutes drive of the City. 5. Against this general background, this report investigates the issues of existing retail centre networks and shopping patterns, and considers potential demand for future retail growth and where this might be provided. Existing Retail Network 6. In Hamilton City, the existing retail network is comprised of : 3 x major centres (CBD, The Base and nearby Te Rapa area, Chartwell), several suburban centres often based around a supermarket (12 x such centres), and a range of small neighbourhood corner shops (15 x such centres).

6 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 6 of Total retail floorspace has been estimated at 381,000m2 GFA, allocated: 150,000m2 : CBD core and Fringe (excluding main shopping centres) 28,000m2 : CBD main centres (eg.centreplace;downtown;k-martplaza) 36,000m2 : The Base 40,000m2 : other Te Rapa 27,000m2 : Chartwell + Lynden Court area 82,000m2 : Suburban shopping centres 18,000m2 : Neighbourhood local shops 411,000m2 8. Obviously, the CBD area alone accounts for a significant share of all retail space, around 45%; and the 3 x major centres of CBD, The Base, and Chartwell combined account for over 60% of all retail space in the City. 9. The three major centres are also significant to customers and shopping patterns beyond the City alone. Results from a household shopping survey conducted across the Study Region confirmed that these three centres are preferred as people s primary shopping centre by : 88% of Hamilton residents 76% of Waikato District residents 57% of Waipa District residents 65% of Morrinsville Area residents 10. The CBD is still the dominant retail focus by floorspace and range of activities, accounting for about half of all retailing found around the City, and offering the widest range of specialty shopping as well as large-format retail, plus restaurants/cafes and other entertainment activities. Customer support is drawn from city-wide as well as region-wide sources and comprised of residents, workers, and tourists/visitors. 11. The Te Rapa area (including The Base) currently has a particularly strong offer in large-format retail, and as such experiences a wide customer catchment but with a bias to the north being the northern half of the City and through Waikato District. 12. Chartwell Mall is a large specialty shopping mall, offering a range of retail spanning everyday convenience-type activities (eg. a supermarket, chemist, etc) as well as a large offer in specialty shopping particularly in clothing/shoes/fashion accessories, homeware/décor/and furnishings, plus some entertainment; this provides an alternative focus for such activities outside the CBD. 13. A research exercise to identify the customer distribution experienced at these major centres confirmed a customer usage pattern far greater than City-based residents alone. In fact, broadly there is a 50/50 split between customers that are City-based vs customers coming from outside the city (further details are reported under the Existing Shopping Patterns section, including identification of a notable component in visitors/passing traffic ).

7 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 7 of Additional to the three major centres are a series of suburban shopping centres (12 x centres) scattered around the city, usually under 10,000m2 GFA, and often including a supermarket as the main shopping attraction complimented with a range of small shops and services; the dominant business focus in these centres is everyday convenience-type activities serving a localised trade catchment. 15. Additional again are several small neighbourhood corner shops, usually comprised of activities like a dairy/superette, takeaways, hairdresser and a few other shops. The majority of these corner shops consist of six shops or less, predominantly providing activities that meet a high level of local convenience shopping. 16. In Waikato District, the distribution of the population is significant to where and how residents fulfill retail needs. For example, there are two main town centres around the District, but only around 30% of residents live in these centres with the majority living in rural areas. 17. In simplicity, the distribution of the Waikato District population can be explained as a U shape around the northern, western and eastern sides of Hamilton City. Noteworthy about this distribution is that around 60% of the population live within relatively short travel times/distances to the City less than minutes driving time. 18. The workplace destination for the District s working population is also important. Between 40%-50% of those living around the fringes of the City actually work in the City. The significance of this to retailing is that such workers have relatively easy access to shopping in Hamilton on a frequent basis because they are already in the area for work, and over half of these work-commuters actually undertake some shopping at least once a week as part of the work-trip. 19. Ngaruawahia town centre is one of the two town centres. It is an older centre, relatively small with about 5,000m2 GFA retail space, and businesses highly focused on everyday convenience including two small supermarkets. Alternative shopping options such as The Base/ Te Rapa retail precinct is located about 10 minutes drive to the south; the CBD is minutes away depending on traffic. 20. Huntly town centre is about twice the size of Ngaruawahia in retail floorspace, around 10,000m2GFA. A relatively new Countdown supermarket is the largest local retail business. Huntly is about a 10-minute drive north of Ngaruawahia, thus 20-minutes north of The Base/Te Rapa or 30-minutes from the Hamilton CBD. At this increased travel distance, a higher level of local everyday shopping occurs in Huntly particularly for everyday-type goods and services, while virtually all specialty shopping for items like clothing/shoes and furniture/appliances occurs in Hamilton.

8 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 8 of Elsewhere in Waikato District, there are some rural community centres with a limited range of local shops such as dairy/superette, café/takeaways, hair salon, liquor/tavern, petrol, hardware, banking, real estate, and sometimes a specialist shop like fabrics, clothing, furnishings, or arts/crafts, eg. at Maramarua, TeKauwhata, Taupiri, Gordonton, Te Kowhai, Whatawhata, Raglan. 22. Reflecting the above characteristics, the existing retail network around Waikato District has a high degree of focus on convenience / everyday goods and services. The regional household shopping survey confirmed this shopping pattern, whereby Waikato District residents undertake a high level of shopping in Hamilton City particularly for specialty shopping and large format retail. 23. In Waipa District, the distribution of the population is different from that found around Waikato District, and the nature of local shopping centres and shopping patterns reflect this. 24. Waipa District if found entirely to the south of Hamilton City. The area can be described as predominantly rural with two large towns and a few small community centres. The two townships include Te Awamutu located in the western half of the District, and Cambridge in the eastern half. 25. Both townships are of similar size, and collectively account for 60% of the District s population base. Of the 40% in rural areas, generally 13½% are around Cambridge, 15½% to the south and west of Te Awamutu, and 11% in the northern sector adjoining Hamilton City s southern boundary. 26. The workplace destination for the local working population generally emphasises areas around Waipa District. In Te Awamutu and Cambridge areas, around 25% travel into Hamilton City for employment, but a notable variation is in the northern rural sector where 40% work in Hamilton. The significance of this workplace feature has already been noted, where over half of commuting workers actually undertake shopping as part of the worktrip at least weekly. 27. Both Cambridge and Te Awamutu town centres have a similar level of retail offer : around 15,000m2 GFA in each centre, including some largeformat stores like supermarkets, department stores, and DIY hardware outlets. Overall, the general business focus is on everyday-type goods and services with a limited selection of specialty-type shopping. The City CBD is the closest large shopping centre, about a minute drive from either township. 28. Elsewhere, there are just two small rural community centres, Ohaupo, and Pirongia, with a limited range of local shopping only.

9 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 9 of Reflecting the above characteristics, the existing retail network around Waipa District emphasises the importance of the two town centres (Cambridge and Te Awamutu) as a focus for a reasonably broad range of retail goods and services. The exceptions are the usual specialist areas like furniture/appliances, clothing/shoes, car purchases, and large shopping centres, which are sourced predominantly in Hamilton. 30. In the Morrinsville Area, this study area includes Morrinsville township and the immediately surrounding rural area generally known as Tahuroa; the study area does not include any wider areas within Matamata-Piako District. 31. The existing population base across the study area is 9,300 allocated 6,700 in the township, and 2,600 in nearby rural areas. 32. Future population growth is not expected to be a significant planning factor. Across the entire District, projected growth over the next 20 years is virtually static; specifically within the Morrinsville Area, growth around +500 is expected, virtually all within the township area. 33. Morrinsville town centre is the only retail/commercial precinct in the study area. The retail hub is focused around Thames Street, which is more or less central to the townships. A high degree of usage of local shops occurs. Local shops emphasise everyday goods and services including 2 x supermarkets and a small Warehouse department store. There is also a limited range of specialty shopping spanning activities like clothing/shoes, appliances and home furnishings. 34. Otherwise, the Hamilton urban area is located some 30kms away with the associated retail influence particularly for specialty goods and services. Existing Shopping Patterns 35. Two specific research projects were undertaken to help identify where residents were currently undertaking shopping, and for what. (i) (ii) Firstly, a detailed household shopping survey was administered across the Region. The primary purpose of this work was to identify where residents usually went to undertake their shopping having regard to a broad range of retail activities. Secondly, a customer distribution survey was undertaken at the three largest shopping centres in Hamilton and the Region, being the City CBD, The Base, and Chartwell. The primary purpose of this work was to identify where customers come from to make use of each of these centres, and also identify the importance of various customer source areas to the business base supporting these centres.

10 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 10 of From the Household Shopping Survey, key findings show: (i) In Waikato District, there is a distinct low level of usage of local businesses in all shop categories. This is due to several reasons, including: in the northern sector of Waikato District (generally north of Te Kauwhata), there is a much stronger Auckland influence whereas elsewhere the Auckland influence is quite insignificant; while in the central sector of Waikato District covering Huntly and Ngaruawahia, use of the local town centres for supermarkets, everyday goods and services, banks, medical/dental, and petrol are relatively high, but use of Hamilton businesses also for these shopping needs is relatively high likely a reflection of the high level of worker commuting into Hamilton for employment. For other more specialist retail activities like furniture/ appliances, clothing/shoes, and car purchases, local shopping is very low while the use of Hamilton businesses is high. and in the southeast sector (Gordonton, Eureka, Matangi, Tamahere) and also in the southwest sector (Te Kowhia, Whatawhata, Western Hills) there is a very strong reliance on Hamilton retailers for all types of goods and services. (ii) In Waipa District, there is a relatively high level of usage of local businesses, particularly in areas like supermarket, everyday goods and services, banking, medical/dental, hardware/building, and petrol. The town centres of Cambridge and Te Awamutu offer a good range in all these core activities, and given that the District s population is broadly split 1/3 rd Cambridge township - 1/3 rd Te Awamutu township - 1/3 rd rural, most residents have relatively close access to such goods and services in these town centres. The Hamilton CBD in particular is the preferred shopping destination for items not readily available locally, like furniture/ appliances, clothing/shoes, and car purchases; and the CBD is an important secondary destination for all shop-types. A notable variation in shopping patterns occur in the north rural sector (broadly between the City and Te Awamutu), where Hamilton destinations (especially the CBD) are rated highly for all shop-types. (iii) In the Morrinsville Area, there is a high level of customer usage of local businesses for many types of retail, like supermarkets, everyday goods and services, medical/dental, hardware/building supplies, petrol.

11 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 11 of 185 On the other hand, there is a high level of shopping elsewhere for specialist goods like furniture/appliances, clothing/shoes, and new cars. Hamilton is the dominant source for specialist goods. This shopping pattern has similarities to the shopping results found at Cambridge and Te Awamutu townships. (iv) In Hamilton City, shopping patterns vary around different sectors of the City, with the usage of the largest retail centres (CBD, The Base, Chartwell) being widespread, although there is a notable bias for residents to prefer the centre closest to home. Overall, it is notable that the CBD is an important retail destination for people from all city sectors and for a wide range of retail activities eg.... broadly, the southeast and southcentral sectors are strongest support areas of CBD activities, being areas furthest away from Te Rapa or Chartwell influences while western and northcentral sectors have a strong secondary reliance on CBD activities and the northeast sector is most independent with Chartwell and Te Rapa being virtually local centres but there are notable variations in CBD usage by storetypes eg. strongest use is for supermarkets, banking, and clothing/ shoes/fashion specialty shopping. 37. From the Customer Distribution research undertaken at the 3 x major city shopping centres, key findings showed : (i) (ii) These major centres experience a customer usage pattern far greater than City-based residents alone. Broadly there is a 50/50 split between customers that are City-based vs customers coming from outside the city, but this varies from the CBD having the widest customer base to Chartwell having the most local customer base, eg. CBD : 54% customers from outside city : 46% City-based The Base : 47% : 53% Chartwell : 40% : 60%... and the share of customers from outside the City come from: Waipa District : 12% Waikato District : 8% Morrinsville area : 6% Wider Waikato Region : 4% Bay of Plenty : 5% Auckland : 9% Elsewhere around NZ : 6%

12 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 12 of 185 (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) From a Regional perspective, around 76% of customers are local (50% City, 12% Waipa, 8% Waikato, 6% Morrinsville), with 24% visitors. The high level of visitors most likely reflects the strong events centre activities which regularly occur around the Region and especially in the City, such as numerous club sporting activities, toplevel sporting competitions, business and special interest groups displays and exhibitions and conferences, special events like Mystery Creek ag-days, the V-8 s. Also, there world be an element of influence from general passing traffic given the highway structure and Hamilton providing a logical stopping point for travellers. For the CBD, customers from outside the city represent just over half, with 1/3 rd of this coming from Waipa District; within the City the southern-half of the city is most important, worth twice the number of customers coming from the northern-half. For The Base, customers from outside the city represent just under half, with Waikato District the most important external source ; within the City the northern-half is most important, worth about 3- times the customer flow that comes from southern suburbs. For Chartwell Mall, it has the least amount of customer influence from outside the city but this is still 40%, with relatively equal usage from residents in Waikato and Waipa Districts; within the City about half of all city-based customers come from the nearby northeast suburbs, with the other half coming from across the wider city. Future Growth Demand Issues 38. Issue #1 : Population Growth The Waikato Region is a major growth sector within New Zealand. Across the study area, growth over the past ten years has been above the national average: 1996 / / 2006 Hamilton City + 6,471 / +5.9% +13,000 /+11.1% Waikato District / +1.8% + 4,100 /+10.3% Waipa District + 1,464/ +3.9% + 3,530 / +9.1% Morrinsville Area / +3.1% / +4.7% + 8, ,065 /+10.0% VS Auckland Region + 90,000 / +8.4% +145,000 / +12.4% National Growth +118,900 / +3.3% +296,150 / + 7.8% 39. Obviously, growth in Hamilton City is the dominant driver to growth in the Region, where growth rates are more akin to the strong Auckland experience, but growth rates in surrounding districts have also been high.

13 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 13 of The University of Waikato, Population Studies Department, have been asked to prepare projections for the Region, and these have been adopted for use in this report [ refer: Population Projections until 2061 for FutureProof the Hamilton Sub-Regional Growth Strategy, October 2008 PSC Medium EDA]. The projections suggest the following growth pattern: Hamilton Waikato Waipa Morrinsville Study City District District Area Region Base at ,400 45,400 43,700 9, , ,200 +3,750 +2, , ,000 +4,250 +4, , ,800 +5,500 +4, , ,500 +4,650 +3, ,050 Total : +20 years +51, ,150 15, ,920 Average per annum + 2, ,296 Projected at 2026 : 185,900 63,550 59,500 9, , Overall, Regional growth on the order of +37% is projected ranging from +40% in Waikato District, to +38% in Hamilton City, +36% in Waipa District, and +5% in the Morrinsville Area. 42. Where this growth will actually occur is an important follow-on question. For example, over the 20-year period current growth expectations include the following. (i) In Hamilton City, the City s growth strategy has three prime growth cells plus considerable infill housing targeted, as follows: continuation of growth in the northeast growth cell, at Rototuna = +15,000 opening a new growth cell in the northwest, at Rotokauri = + 4,350 (with ongoing growth after 2026 up to around 20,000) opening a new growth cell in the southwest, at Peacocke = + 5,700 (with ongoing growth after 2026 up to around 20,000) Sub-total : Growth Cells +25,150 plus general infill elsewhere around the established City areas... Infill +26,350 Total = +51,500

14 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 14 of 185 The City growth strategy as outlined above shows an expectation for broadly a 50/50 split between growth occurring in new growth cells and by way of infill development. This growth strategy also shows a more balanced distribution in growth across many sectors of the City compared to the recent growth history which has emphasised growth at the northern fringe of the City (ii) In Waikato District, future growth is expected to continue emphasising rural growth trends. Strongest rural growth is expected around the fringes of Hamilton city to the west, east and southeast which account for 55% of all District Growth. Conversely, growth in the two townships represent around 19% of all District growth; slowest growth is expected in the eastern rural sector. Base +20yrs Future 2006 Growth 2026 North Rural / TeKauwhata 4,530 +3,270 7,800 West Rural / Raglan 5,415 +1,280 6,695 East Rural / Whitikahu 2, ,290 City fringe west 8,325 +3,940 12,265 City fringe east 6,035 +3,945 9,980 Southeast / Tamahere 6,585 +2,045 8,630 Ngaruawahia township 5,300 +2,720 8,020 Huntly township 7, ,910 45, ,190 54, % (iii) In Waipa District, the recent growth experiences show about a 50/50 split between growth in the two main townships vs. growth in rural areas. However, future growth projections indicate a slight bias to rural growth (56% of new growth), and a bias to more growth in Te Awamutu township (25% of new growth) over Cambridge township (19% of new growth) And, not all rural sectors are equal : the Cambridge Rural Sector and the Northern Rural Sector, being those closest to the City, are growing faster than the experience in the southern and western sectors which are furthest removed from the Hamilton influence. Future growth anticipates a population distribution as follows: Base +20yrs Future 2006 Growth 2026 Cambridge township 13,270 +2,960 16,235 TeAwamutu township 12,980 +3,860 16,840 Cambridge rural 5,885 +4,720 10,605 Northern rural 4,765 +2,185 6,950 Te Awamutu rural 3,275 +1,795 5,070 South rural 3, ,645 43, ,645 59, %

15 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 15 of 185 (iv) In the Morrinsville area, population growth is less of a planning factor. Across the entire Matamata-Piako District, the population base is expected to have little change. Specifically in the Morrinsville study area, growth is expected to be on the light side and occur in the township area: Base +20yrs Future 2006 Growth 2026 Morrinsville township 6, ,270 Tahuroa nearby rural area 2,950 (- 30) 2,560 9, , % Issue #2 : Dairying is the Waikato Dairying is the Waikato correctly conveys the importance of this industry to the area. In spite of recent changes within the dairy industry and major shifts in production to new areas, the Waikato is still the largest dairying region in NZ, worth some 28% of the country s total milk production. 43. And looking into the future, the Waikato looks set to continue as an important dairy farm especially to Asian markets. In fact, more than dairying alone, the Waikato is an important food bowl to the world providing over $6Billion/per annum in milk, meat, vegetables and fruit -- with dairying contributing 1/3 rd of this [refer: The Waikato Regional Economy, prepared by Department of Economics, University of Waikato, April 2007]. 44. The same report identifies the importance of Hamilton City to the Regional economy. For example : Hamilton City businesses account for 68% of all sales through the Region; City households account for 72% of all household income; and City employment provides 74% of all jobs. 45. A further useful item emerging from the Regional Economy report relates specifically to retail sales. A fifteen-year time sequence was assessed ( ) which shows a very strong correlation between the value of milk payout achieved vs. the amount of annual retail sales achieved -- good years in agricultural commodity sales see good retail sales, and bad years see bad sales. 46. The report makes the point that variableness is part of farming. Recent years have been above-average for sales growth and employment demand, but there are also lean years to have regard to when attempting any longer-term projections in sales trends.

16 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 16 of Issue #3 : Employment Hub The City provides 74% of all jobs in the Region. These jobs are filled : 77% by city-based workers 11% from Waikato District [ this represents around 32% of all working adults in the District] 8% from Waipa District [ this represents around 22% of all working adults in the District] 2% from the wider Waikato 2% from Misc. 48. Noteworthy, the proportion of city jobs filled by city-based residents is declining in favour of more workers coming from outside the city, especially from Waikato and Waipa Districts. These two areas now fill 19% of all city jobs, up from 17% in 2001 and 16% in In other words, commuting into the City is on the rise, and one of the consequences of this is alternative shopping being actively undertaken in centres outside local areas of residence because shopping is now often done as part of a work trip. 50. In response to a question in the household survey How often does the main wage earner do some shopping or errands on the way to or from work? key findings show: Yes, Yes, At least Less than Weekly Weekly Never Hamilton City 53% 12% 26% Waikato District 53% 13% 26% Waipa District 83% 12% 5% Morrinsville Area 57% 10% 33% Obviously, shopping on a work-trip is frequently undertaken. 51. Issue #4 : Real Income and Retail Sales Growth Factor Population growth is a direct influence on future retail spending. Local economy issues and employment, and their potential variableness, are also fundamental to the economic strength of an area over time which will influence retail spending of an established population base as well as the flow of new population growth into an area. But another significant factor is real growth in household income a measure of increase in disposable income which can get reflected in retail sales growth. 52. There are various ways of looking at and assessing real growth eg. growth in actual retail sales, growth in household incomes, growth in household debt, and growth in GDP. (i) Real growth in retail sales over the past ten years has shown a rate of +3% to +4% per annum, but this is subject to significant contraction currently, and unsustainable for the long term.

17 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 17 of 185 (ii) (iii) (iv) Real growth in household incomes is modest, and inflationary pressures are likely to erode gains at least in the near future. Growth in household debt has mirrored many western world countries, where NZ household debt has risen from 60% of nominal disposable income in 1991 to over 160% in 2007, consuming over 16% of disposable income just for debt payments. The leading example of this phenomena is the United States, and the ultimate result of such a trend is now emerging in the present financial crisis being experienced there and being exported around the world. Real growth in GDP can be broadly considered a measure of the financial health of an area. Across NZ, this has varied between zero to 6% over the past decade, with growth typically in the 3% to 4% range. Under the current economic climate, GDP in the near future is projected at the low end. 53. Any attempt to project out 20-years in fraught with uncertainties. Given this situation, we prefer a degree of conservatism in our projection work, and have adopted a real growth factor of +1% per annum for use in future retail sales calculations and subsequent floorspace demand modelling. Demand for Additional Retail Floorspace Several assumptions are required to prepare any type of future modelling. These have been clearly outlined in the main report, at Section 4. Key conclusions of this analysis include: 54. The study region is a major retail market, with total retail sales of about $2.57 billion at present, retail space of about 449,000 square metres, and average sales per square metre of retail space of about $5,723/m The region is expected to experience continuing rapid population growth over the next 20 years. It is expected that regional population will grow about 37% over the next 20 years, to a total of nearly 318,000 people. 56. The Hamilton region is largely self-sufficient in retailing, with a minimal leakage outflow, but significant inward leakage, amounting to about 20% of total local retail spend. 57. Retail spending is projected to grow at about a 1%p.a. real growth over the next 20 years. 58. When we combine the effects of population growth, real spending growth, and significant net inward leakage, the Hamilton region retail market is expected to grow from $2.57 billion currently to approximately $4.39 billion in 2026.

18 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 18 of This increase in retail sales implies a growth of retail space from about 449,000 square metres currently to around 768,000 square metres over the next 20 years that is, an increase of +319,000m2 over 20 years. However, this assumes population growth + 1% real growth in spending + an inbound leakage factor. Any one, or all, of these assumptions could change. For example: (i) (ii) if only population growth contributes to new retail demand, then the demand in 20 years is +115,000m2 or, if growth real spending declines below 1%, which is certainly likely in the shorter term in response to the current economic recession, but population growth plus inbound leakage continues, then retail demand could more like ,000m2 over 20 years. 60. Additionally, we believe that some of this demand could be fulfilled by achieving higher productivity / sales per square metre in existing facilities, and from latent development capacity within recognised retail centres and commercial zones. For example, in the modelling work completed, a 10% increase in productivity/sales per m2, would have the effect of reducing new retail floorspace demand by (-50,000) to (-70,000) m2 61. For planning purposes, we have suggested a retail floorspace growth target closer to the +240,000m2 level about a 50% increase over current levels. Where to Provide for Additional Retail Floorspace 62. A useful starting point is a good understanding of the amount of floorspace currently existing around the study area. Fortunately, a reasonably accurate picture of m2/gfa has been able to be built up across Hamilton City as well as Waikato and Waipa Districts and Morrinsville. Background details on this are provided in Appendix I and II. 63. Comparing the amount of existing retail floorspace to the potential amount of future floorspace likely to be required, the demand for new space looks to be : Option (iii) Option (ii) Option (i) HIGH demand in 20-years / MEDIUM demand / LOW deamnd 768,000m2GFA : 689,000m2GFA 564,000m2GFA less 449,000m2GFA : existing today +319,000m2GFA : +240, ,000m2 potential new retail floorspace demand

19 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 19 of A key question arises Where does this new space go?? As a starting point in this assessment, we have investigated what opportunities exist for new development within existing commercial centres. 65. Through discussions with major retail property owners / shopping centre operators, and with council officers about known possibilities, we have been able to identify the amount of known retail development capacity within existing centres. The results are set out in Table H and I and J, with the key results being: Known Retail Floorspace Growth Capacity Hamilton City + 163,000m2 GFA Waikato District ,000m2 GFA Waipa District + 28,800m2 GFA Morrinsville +?? m2 GFA say, + 204,000m2 GFA 66. In addition are unknowns about possible re-development within established commercial precincts beyond the main shopping centres, such as in the Te Rapa industrial zone, or in the CBD fringe, or in district town centres, etc. 67. Overall, known future growth capacity within existing centres or planned new centres has to be considered substantial, worth : +45% increase to the estimated existing retail floorspace inventory (eg, 204,000m2 future capacity vs 449,000m2 existing); and 177% of projected future demand for Option (i) (eg. 204,000m2 vs. 115,000m2 projected future demand); 85% of projected demand for Option (ii) (eg. 204,000m2 vs. 240,000m2 projected future demand); 64% of projected demand for Option (iii) (eg. 204,000m2 vs. 319,000m2 projected future demand); but these projections take no account of the potential for improved productivity/sales m2, or the latent capacity for more development within existing centrews/project, both of which would have the effect of reducing future demand; so there may or maynot be an unsatisfied demand. 68. We do not believe it is necessary that all projected future floorspace demand be totally accounted for by the identification of specific new retail development capacity in some location x. There are several reasons for this:

20 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 20 of 185 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) One key reason for this is that it is incorrect to assume that the existing retail business base is operating at maximum efficiencies and, thus, any increase in sales demand automatically requires additional floorspace. In fact, our discussions with retailers would suggest the opposite, that there is general capacity to accommodate a level of sales growth within existing floorspace constraints. Another reason is the likelihood of above-average rises in prices for base products like food and other essentials due to high costs for petrol and corn-based commodities. These two basic products are used widely in many everyday goods. The growth in sales arising from above-average increases in the cost of goods, compared to more modest increases in actual product volume sold, will not sustain any significant demand for additional retail floorspace. The global economic outlook is full of uncertainty, and New Zealand is part of the global economy. Significant changes are occurring that are having a direct influence on disposable income and retail sales. Noteworthy is the tightening of credit, reducing household capacity to continue to borrow to fund retail spending; tightening in the labour market is imposing a high degree of conservatism in spending habits; and reducing interest rates are providing only a nomina offset. The magnitude of change now required by businesses and households to adjust to current economic conditions is beyond just another down phase in an overall economic cycle of ups and downs. Undertaking strategic planning for a 20-year outlook, or longer, is a perspective that should extend beyond current economic difficulties but the timeframe for correcting current difficulties is unclear and general concensus is pointing towards years and not months. This uncertainty must bring a level of conservatism into planning, certainly in the shorter term. Additionally, the uncertainties within any methodology to model and project future retail sales and consequential retail floorspace demand are large, meaning the further out in time that projections at taken the lower the level of reliability. 69. For the above reasons, we have decided to leave any residual demand for future growth in floorspace (above and beyond known capacities ) unallocated at this time. The current economic climate does not support the need for optimistic planning scenarios, but rather some degree of conservatism. Future retail demand can and will undoubtedly be reviewed again at a later date. In the meantime, at least for the next several years, there is adequate known capacity for new retail development around the Region, which in turn enables time to be taken before any other decisions are made on how much additional retail land should be provided, and where this should go.

21 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 21 of Accordingly, the retail strategy for the region looks to be as follows: (i) Around Hamilton City : Maintain an emphasise on existing commercial centres. Provide for new retailing in new growth cells through local town centre / suburban centres / neighbourhood centres as appropriate eg. in Rototuna, Rotokauri, Peacockes, Ruakura. Given the high level of existing development capacity within established commercial centres, there is no need at this time to plan for any major new retail centre anywhere around the City beyond the provision for retailing in new growth cells. (ii) Around Waikato District : The distribution of the population around the District, today and into the foreseeable future, will continue to emphasise areas closeby to the Hamilton City fringe; this directly affect a majority of the District s population. Council s intentions to emphasise rural residential growth into community centres will help create nucleus community centres that can support an improved offer in convenience-retail. This retail growth should be able to be accommodated adjacent to established centres, with perhaps the introduction of a new community centre in the southeast area around Tamahere, and a very local centre in the Meremere/Hampton Downs area. On the other hand, population distribution vs. access to existing retail centres especially in Hamilton City minimises the potential for any significant expansion to retailing in existing town centres particularly in areas of specialist and large-format retail. Nonethe-less, some growth in retail demand can be expected, and the challenge will be to foster improved centre integration through new development that does emerge. Overall, some future retail demand can be expected to be taken up locally, particularly in the convenience-everyday range of goods and services; however, a fair proportion of shopping by Waikato residents can be expected to continue flowing into Hamilton (or Auckland for northern sector residents). (iii) Around Waipa District : The two main townships of Te Awamutu and Cambridge house 60% of the District s population, and future growth is expected to continue this trend. In terms of shopping, the two town centres are first preference shopping destinations for 85% of the District s population. Travel distanceshelp maintain the independence of these two town centres from each other as well as from any stronger Hamilton influence.

22 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 22 of 185 Future growth demands will require some provision for retail expansion in the town centres, identified at around +10,000m2GFA in Cambridge town centre and +14,000m2GFA in Te Awamutu town centre through the District s urban growth strategy. This continues to support the function of these centres as important town centres, effectively with one centre serving the eastern half of the District and the other serving the western half. In the northern rural sector between Te Awamutu and Hamilton City, there is a strong reliance on Hamilton businesses for most retail needs including local everyday items. This is also an important residential growth sector. The addition of a new local shopping centre, around 4,800m2GFA, is part of a Proposed Plan Change at the Airport to provide for local everyday retailing for nearby residents and for the expected expansion of of a business park and air passenger functions. (iv) Around Morrinsville Area : Morrinsville town centre is the only retail focal point in this study area. Businesses here service the northern half of the Matamata-Piako District which is to the east and south of town, with little influence going westward towards Hamilton. Morrinsville residents make a high level of use of local shops; limited out-of-area shopping occurs in Hamilton, and when this does occur it is mostly for specialist goods. Future population growth expectations are for modest growth both in Morrinsville and through its wider catchment. Regarding need for more shops, 60% of respondents to the shopping survey had no comment; of the remainder, the most common comment was more clothing noted for 15% of respondents. It is noteworthy that this type of activity is a specialist retail good which responds to a large trade catchment and population base rather than a localised catchment. Consequently, there is little change expected in terms of demand for new retail. Whatever demand does arise looks capable of being accommodated within the established town centre precinct and existing zoning controls. 71. In simplicity, the Strategy recognises that: there looks to be substantial capacity within existing commercial centres and zones to accommodate a high degree of expected future retail floorspace demand; therefore, new growth should emphasise development around existing centres, and minimise development in new areas the exceptions being new community and suburban-scale centres in new growth cells/communities to meet the demand for local goods

23 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 23 of 185 Part A Assessment Introduction The Waikato Region for this study comprises Hamilton City, Waikato District and Waipa District. This study area covers a large land area, stretching some 120kms north-south and 70kms east-west. Within this area is a large population base, generally allocated : Hamilton City 134,400 Waikato District 45,400 Waipa District 43,700 Morrinsville Area 9, ,860 The area is also one of significant new population growth. Between census years, growth of some +20,000 / +10% was experienced across the Study Region. This growth rate is considerably above the national growth rate of 7.8% for the same period. Such strong growth is one of the motivating issues behind initiating a retail study. Hamilton City 13,000 / +11.1% Waikato District 4,100 / +10.3% Waipa District 3,530 / + 9.1% Morrinsville Area 435 / + 4.7% 20,630 / +10.0% The nature of the population distribution, and thus the distribution of retail activities, varies within each territorial authority. Hamilton City is a major urban area, in fact the fourth largest urban area in the country after Auckland, Christchurch, and Wellington. While it is the smallest of the large cities, Hamilton is substantially larger (by at least twofold) than other provincial cities around the country that tend to be in the 50-60,000 population range. When the influence of surrounding Waikato rural districts is included, arising from an employment flow into the City as well as inbound customer flow to use services and entertainment and retail shops, the overall support population to Hamilton retail businesses is large. Waikato District is generally located to the north of Hamilton City, but also spans both the east and west sides of the City. The residential population is predominantly in rural areas some 60%. There are two major towns, Ngaruawahia with around 8,000 population including nearby rural areas, and Huntly with around 9,400 population including nearby rural areas. That leaves around 26,000 residents living in rural areas or small communities, most (some 20,000) living along the eastern or western fringes of Hamilton City. Employment patterns and shopping patterns for residents suggest a high level of commuting into Hamilton for work and shopping. Waipa District is located to the south of Hamilton City. It, too, is predominantly a rural area, but only 40% of the residential population lives in rural areas while 60% lives in two key towns : Cambridge and Te Awamutu which are both of similar size at around 13,000 people each. The town centres provide a reasonable range in local employment and shopping, but Hamilton City is also an important destination for employment and shopping for District residents.

24 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 24 of 185 The Morrinsville Area is to the east of Hamilton City about 30kms between Morrinsville town centre and the Hamilton CBD. In this study area, 70% of the population is located in the township, and 30% in nearby surrounding rural areas. There is a reasonable level of local employment and local shopping, but Hamilton City is also an important destination for these activities. Respecting the above features, the general nature of the Region can be broadly summarised as : - a major city accounting for close to 60% of the Study Region s population, - plus 5 x major town centres in nearby rural areas (two in the north, two in the south, one in the east) accounting for almost 20% of the Study Region s population, - and a rural/small communities base worth about 20% of the population. The distribution of towns and population is significant to retailing because the breadth and range of retail businesses found in any given location is a direct reflection of the size of the supporting trade catchment and shopping alternatives available. Thus, the population distribution in areas surrounding the City are worthy of note: Waikato District: 30% live in 2 town centres: 70% live in rural areas 60% live within minutes drive of the city Waipa District: 60% live in 2 town centres: 40% live in rural areas 15% live within minutes drive of the city Morrinsville Area: 70% live in town; 30% live in nearby rural areas 0% live with minutes drive of the city. Given that Hamilton City residents comprise around 60% of the Region s population, and City-based businesses employ around 75% of the Region s labour force (comprised of around 75% of the City s labour-force working locally, 35% of the Waikato District labour-force, 30% of the Waipa District labour-force, and 10% of the Morrinsville labour-force), it is understandable that the City is an important focal point within the Region and should hold an above-average position in the retail industry. This is another important feature to any regional retail strategy. Against the above background of key regional features, this assessment reviews the existing retail network and shopping patterns, then reviews future growth demand issues and how this might be translated into demand for new retail floorspace, and finally discusses options for where new retail floorspace could be provided having regard to district growth strategies, as well as practical issues of development intentions by major existing retail developers/land owners, land availability for any new projects, and general store location requirements.

25 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 25 of Existing Retail Network This section reviews the general function and scale of existing retail centres, by territorial authority areas, around the Study Region. (a) Hamilton City As a large urban centre, Hamilton City has a wide range of major and minor retail centres, but there are three particularly notable centres: (i) The largest commercial / retail centre continues to be the city centre; not only is it a large retail centre covering both large-format and specialty shops, but also a focus for a wide-range of other activities including entertainment, major sporting venues, tourism and accommodation, government services, business, education, medical, and residential. (ii) The Te Rapa area at the north end of the city has emerged in recent years as a new major retail centre particularly for large-format retailing; this area includes The Base, now second in size to the CBD and with substantial ongoing expansion potential; this area also includes the start of the Supa Centa, also with considerable expansion potential; plus some freestanding large-format activities through the area. (iii) The Westfield Chartwell Mall in the northeast sector of the city has been recently expanded to accommodate more specialty shops as well as a cinema complex; retail activities span everyday convenience as well as a wide range of specialty shops especially fashion-type activities; further expansion is planned. Additional to these three major centres, but significantly smaller, are several local suburban centres scattered around the city (usually based around a supermarket with a range of ancillary shops), and very local neighbourhood shops. Major Shopping Centres A notable feature about customer support being achieved by the three major centres is the high level of out-of-city customer usage. A household survey undertaken as part of this research work during October 2007 [refer Section 2(i) for details] identified shopping patterns for various types of retail goods and services. One umbrella question about shopping was : What is your primary large shopping mall or shopping area? The answers confirm the importance of the three large Hamilton centres across the Region. at the City Centre: -- 26% of Hamilton residents consider the CBD to be their primary large centre -- 20% of Waikato District residents -- 33% of Waipa District residents -- 17% of Morrinsville residents at The Base -- 29% of Hamilton residents consider The Base to be their primary centre -- 37% of Waikato District residents -- 13% of Waipa District residents -- 19% of Morrinsville residents

26 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 26 of 185 at Chartwell Mall -- 33% of Hamilton residents consider Chartwell to be their primary centre -- 19% of Waikato District residents -- 11% of Waipa District residents -- 29% of Morrinsville residents... and in total, all three centres are preferred as people s primary large centre by: -- 88% of Hamilton residents -- 76% of Waikato District residents -- 57% of Waipa District residents -- 65% of Morrinsville residents Another research survey undertaken as part of this research work was a customer distribution survey (using vehicle license numbers collected at the three major shopping centres),undertaken at the three major centres during October and November 2007 [refer Section 2(ii) for details]. This exercise identified the distribution of customers as follows: From From From From From. Hamilton Waikato D. Waipa D. Morrinsville Elsewhere City Centre 46% 6% 16% 7.5% 24.5% The Base 53% 10% 8% 5% 24% Chartwell 60% 7% 7% 5% 21% In other words, the three major retail centres in Hamilton City have a customer base far greater than city residents broadly, 50% coming from within the city and 50% coming from outside the city with 25% from Waikato / Waipa / Morrinsville study area, and 25% from elsewhere. Against this broad background, the existing City-wide retail network consists of the following. (i) Hamilton City Centre (CBD) Historically, the CBD has been the dominant commercial/retail centre for the city and region, and today this continues even with the introduction of other major retail centres. Following are some key facts which demonstrate the importance of the CBD and its retail and business base. Retail Floorspace Still the Largest in the City - A recent survey of CBD retail space (January 2008) undertaken by Council s planning department identified that total floorspace is around 179,000m2GFA which is the home to some 510 businesses. Noteworthy, this study also identified a low vacancy factor around 12,000m2GFA, being <7% of total retail floorspace.

27 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 27 of 185 Total CBD retail floorspace can be allocated as follows: Floorspace No. of Shops 15,407m2 GFA Centre Place 112 4,936m2 GFA Downtown Plaza 44 8,060m2 GFA Hamilton Central/K-Mart Plaza ,625m2GFA Elsewhere around the CBD and Fringe CBD 332 (generally between the River, Mill St,Tristram St, Bridge St) 179,028m2 GFA TOTAL 510 [ Appendix I includes a table outlining the findings from the CBD retail survey, identifying shop-types (using Statistics NZ standard ANZSIC classification of activities) and shop sizes. ] By comparison, the next largest retail centres around the City include: Floorspace No. of Shops 31,000m2 GFA The Base 30 4,700m2 GFA Dressmart at The Base 36 24,775m2 GFA Future Expansion at The Base?? 60,475m2 GFA 15,000m2 GFA Supa Centa, Te Rapa 2 34,000m2 GFA Future Expansion at Supa Centa?? 49,000m2 GFA 22,000m2 GFA Chartwell Mall 112 7,000m2 GFA Future Expansion at Chartwell Mall?? 5,000m2 GFA Lynden Court, Chartwell including adjacent street-front businesses 20 34,000m2 GFA TOTAL : 77,700m2 GFA existing +65,775m2 GFA potential future expansion Clearly, the CBD continues to be the largest retail centre in the city in terms of m2/gfa available about twice the floorspace of all other major retail centres combined as they exist today, but noting that future expansion potential at the other centres is considerable and could increase total floorspace there by some +80% Wide Business Base -- A wider perspective about the function of the CBD clearly shows that the business base in the city centre is comprised of multiple business activities beyond retail alone. The retail component has a range of both small store specialty shopping and also large format retailing, but beyond retailing there are several other key business sectors, like: - central government functions and offices - the courts - local government functions and offices

28 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 28 of a wide range of entertainment activities - numerous cafes and restaurants - major sporting venues - recreational and cultural venues - professional offices (eg.insurances, finance, legal, accountant, property, general business service) - a range of light industry - car sales and servicing - medical centres and specialist services - general business offices - accommodation and other tourist/visitor activities. During June 2007, Council s planning department undertook a comprehensive survey/inventory of business activities around the CBD Core and CBD Fringe. The results confirmed the wide range of business activities found in the CBD : - retailing, around 28% of all business activities - finance and insurance, 11% - professional services, 10% - business services, 10% - property services, 9% - health services, 8% - actual business offices, 8% - community services, 5% - government functions, 4% - entertainment 2% - education, 1% - other activities, 4% 100% Noteworthy, while the survey confirmed a wide range in business activities around the CBD, it also identified that retailing is a significant portion of the total mix at around 28% of all business activities. Largest Employment Centre Analysis of the city-wide workforce (as at 2002 business census data) shows the City Centre is by far the largest employment zone: - Central City 15,200 = 28% - Te Rapa 8,500 = 16% - Frankton 8,000 = 15% - Hamilton East 6,200 = 11% - Hamilton Lake (Hospital) 5,200 = 10% - elsewhere 10,900 = 20% TOTAL 54,000 = 100% In fact, combining the Central City with nearby Frankton and nearby Hamilton Lake (dominated by the hospital zone), about 50% of the city s employment is within close proximity of the CBD. or as an alternative view, 67% of the workforce actually work in the southern half of the city, or 75% of the workforce actually work west of the river, as shown in MAP 1 following both sectors (south and west) have close if not immediate access to the CBD.

29 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 29 of 185 MAP 1 HAMILTON CITY WORKFORCE DISTRIBUTION where people work According to 2006 Census data on travel to work data, the workplace destination (where people actually work) for Hamilton s resident workforce is as follows: OVERALL... 2/3rds of all jobs are in the South... and... 3/4ths of all jobs are in the West

30 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 30 of 185 Region-Wide Source of City Workers According to 2006 Census data, home to work trips shows the wide influence which jobs in Hamilton City have to overall employment around the Region. Broadly across all of Hamilton City, the source of workers is : - 77% come from within Hamilton City : this represents 46,900 workers - 11% Waikato District : 6,600 workers - 8% Waipa District : 4,700 workers - 4% Elsewhere : 2,600 workers 60,800 Specifically in and around the CBD, with this area being the largest employment centre in the city, a wide distribution of workers can be expected from across the Region. Resource Consents Show Trends Towards Restaurants / Cafes / Entertainment, and to Apartments A schedule of all resource consents issued in the CBD area (core and fringe) was complied by Council over a ten year period October 1997 October The results show: 35% / 134 : Various enforcement issues eg. signs, cell sites, dispensations, change of conditions 43% / 166 : Various Liquor permits, including new restaurants, cafes 12% / 45 : Conversions, alterations, extensions to existing buildings, undertaken to create the following activities 14 x Education/Training facilities 11 x Apartments 4 x Offices 4 x Retail shops 3 x Restaurants/Cafes 2 x Hotel accommodation 7 x Misc./unknown use 10% / 38 : New Buildings, comprised of: 14 x Apartments 6 x Carparking 5 x Mixed Uses : Retail / Apartments 2 x Retail 2 x Offices 2 x Student accommodation 3 x Entertainment/Amusement Centres 1 x Hotel 1 x Medical Centre 2 x Misc./unknown uses 100% / 383 : Total Number of Resource Consents Issued Setting aside the various enforcement and liquor applications, these results confirm interesting trends particularly in expanding the restaurant / café / entertainment activities, and the residential / apartment base within the CBD. There is also a notable sub-theme in new education / training facilities emerging around the CBD. New retail activities have been a minor part of new development in the CBD.

31 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 31 of 185 Office Space Usage is High / Vacant Floorspace is Low An annual survey of office space around the Hamilton CBD area is undertaken by Darroch Valuations. The latest results are from March 2007, and highlight: - total office space is around 126,000m2 - the overall vacancy factor is 7.9% - and within the A-Grade office sector, the vacancy factor is 5.0% - it was noted that several A-Grade developments or re-furbishment have occurred in recent years, and still the vacancy rate is low - a new 12 x level office tower is currently under construction in Victoria Street, and will add +11,500m2 of new office space; this is a +9% increase to the current office base. The significance of this feature is a demonstration of the ongoing vitality of the CBD and its continuing attractiveness for commercial activities. This is an important support element to retail activities around the CBD. Ongoing Changes in Retail Tenancies Individual retail tenancies are often changing around the CBD, as is the case in most retail centres. This re-cycling of retail floorspace arises from changes in individual retail business trading requirements and in the supply of alternative store locations. Some businesses will change premises to expand, some to contract, some are closed; in turn, premises are re-cycled for alternative uses, sometimes using the same building shape/size, sometimes being subdivided into smaller spaces, sometimes being completely redeveloped. Particularly noteworthy are changes in the larger retail stores. For example, since implementation of the Commercial Services Zone in 2003 (a zone intended to cater for large-format retail development), The Base retail centre (Stages 1+2+3) has been developed which largely emphasises large format stores. Several stores have relocated from elsewhere in the CBD, and it is notable that such relocation has been matched by the introduction of new retailing to take the place of old vacated premises. For example : No. 1 Shoe Warehouse shifted from Victoria St at Garden Place, and this premise has been subdivided and is now occupied by 4 x boutique fashion stores (also notable, prior to No.1 Shoes occupying this space, it was a DEKA general merchandise store for many years). The Warehouse at Garrett Avenue closed in favour of a new store in The Base; Spotlight Furnishings has occupied the old Warehouse space (which was a New World supermarket before the business was shifted to the Pak nsave Mill Street when the Garnett Rd premises became occupied by The Warehouse). The Warehouse in Downtown Plaza has shifted across the street into larger premises (from a small store of 2,000m2 into larger premises of 8,000m2); the old Warehouse Downtown space was cut in half and is now occupied by Rebel Sports and EZY-Buy clothing. In essence, The Warehouse business has opted for a two-store strategy for the city : one in the central city, and one at The Base in

32 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 32 of 185 north Hamilton, while also operating a small suburban store (5000m2) in Clyde Road, Hillcrest. Briscoes has opened a new store in The Base, and maintained its older store in North Victoria Street (similar to The Warehouse, Briscoes has also adopted a two-store city-wide strategy). Rebel Sports has opened a new store in The Base, plus opened a new store in the CBD by occupying part of the old Warehouse Downtown store. Like The Warehouse and Briscoes, this chain has opted for a two-store city-wide strategy. Changes in retail tenancies reflect a common business cycle one of continual change that occurs within retail businesses and retail centres. Throughout this business cycle, there will be periods of higher and lower vacant space. Two to three years ago, when The Base first opened and several major retailers shifted from the CBD, it might have looked like the CBD was headed towards a major change in retail hierarchy. However, vacated space has all been re-used for alternative retail activities, maintaining if not expanding the attractiveness of the CBD retail focus. Today, the retail vacancy rate looks to be at a low level of <4% as measured in the recent retail study (discussed above). Overall, the above features characterise the importance of the CBD that is still the dominant retail, business, and entertainment centre for the City and Region. The CBD retail base contains about twice the amount of m2/gfa as found anywhere else around the City. However, while retailing is an important component to the CBD comprising around 28% of all business activities, 72% of CBD businesses are nonretail activities spanning a very wide range from commerce to government to education to health/medicine to entertainment. Hence, it is not surprising to find the CBD being the single largest employment zone in the City, with the workforce drawn from not only the City but across the Region. Office floorspace demand is generally high/vacancies are low, and a new office tower is under construction that will add almost +10% to the total existing office floorspace inventory. Recycling of retail floorspace (changes in shop tenancies) is a common feature of any retail centre, and in the CBD over the past three years some significant changes in larger retail spaces has resulted in strong replacement businesses filling vacated spaces, complimented by a low shop-space vacancy rate.

33 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 33 of 185 (ii) Te Rapa, including The Base Over the past 5 years, Te Rapa has progressive grown into a significant retail focal point, especially for large-format retailing. The start was around 2002 with the development of a large Placemakers (5,000m2) and Harvey Norman (8,100m2) stores near the corner of Church Rd - Te Kowhai Rd and Te Rapa Rd - State Hwy. But the largest change has occurred following completion of a district plan review, when in 2003 a new commercial zone (Commercial Services Zone) was applied to two large sites in the area the Supa Centa (extension of the Harvey Norman site) and The Base. The purpose of the Commercial Services Zone was primarily to enable development of large format retailing which was being severely restricted in previous commercial zones around the city centre due to land shortages. Changes to permitted retailing in the Industrial Zone also applied, primarily enabling retail over 1000m2 on a one store per one site basis. Consequently, large-format retailing has expanded significantly in the area, eg. The first stages of The Base opened during 2005, and this is now the largest retail focus in the Te Rapa area including many stores within an integrated shopping centre specifically designed and built as a large format centre. Only part of the land has been developed to date, approximately 36,000m2 GFA, and there is capacity for further development ultimately reaching around 60,000m2 GFA. Additional large format development may also occur in parts of the Industrial Zone on adjacent land eg. the existing Mitre 10 MEGA store at around 12,000m2 is located adjacent The Base in the Industrial Zone. Just north of The Base, at Te Kowhai / Church Road, is the Supa Centa which currently includes a Harvey Norman store and adjacent Placemakers, but otherwise is vacant land with capacity for future development up to around an additional 34,000m2 GFA. This land has a Commercial Services Zone. Across Te Rapa Road / State Hwy 1 just to the east of the Supa Centa is a small group of smaller large-format stores which includes Big Save Furniture, Redpath Furniture, Bedpost, Beds R Us, Betta Electrical, Carpet Court, and Carters Building Supplies. There are also some smaller retailers like Early Settlers furniture, Tiles NZ, Kitchen House design and appliances, as well as some offices and general business activities like Cock n Bull tavern/restaurant. Just south of The Base on land fronting Te Rapa Road are a few other large format stores a New World Supermarket (4,400m2) opened in 2006, and nearby the conversion of an old warehouse space into 3 x large format stores with Payless Plastics, Total Furniture, Top Town Wheels (car wheels and accessories). Besides the availability of zoned commercial land, another key driver of retail growth in the Te Rapa area is its strategic location with easy access to a large customer trade catchment. Large-format retail activities are generally based on a business model that requires higher volume product sales / lower margin price sales, and hence these businesses need a large customer base to support high volume businesses.

34 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 34 of 185 The Te Rapa area is located at a very strategic road junction State Hwy 1 /Te Rapa Road runs north-south from northern rural areas, through Te Rapa, and into the CBD; from the Te Rapa Road / Avalon Drive / Wairere Drive round-a-bout : - Avalon Drive leads to the western suburbs, - Wairere Drive leads to the northeastern suburbs, - plus State Hwy 1 leads directly north into the Waikato District rural base. Broadly, this makes the northern half of the City and also northern rural areas close to Te Rapa businesses, and this covers a large customer catchment. The Proposed Te Rapa Bypass will re-direct State Hwy 1 traffic off Te Rapa Road and onto the western bypass route, lowering traffic flows past Supa Centa, The Base, and other parts of Te Rapa North. Easy access from the Bypass to Te Rapa Road will be maintained so customer access to Te Rapa retailing from areas to the north will continue. The benefit to Te Rapa retailing will be reduced traffic, especially reduced heavy truck movements, which should improve customer convenience for shoppers using this area. Another key driver to retail growth in the Te Rapa area is future population growth across the Region which is expected to continue at above-average growth rates. In particular, ongoing strongest future growth is expected in the northern half of the City. During the past ten years, well over half of the City s growth has been experienced in the northern suburbs, particularly the northeastern fringe known as Rototuna. The Rototuna area alone accounted for 65% of all city growth between , and 45% of all growth between And there is still significant growth to come, with +15,000 growth capacity in the Rototuna growth cell; plus, in the longer-term, there may be up to another +20,000 if urban development occurs in the HT1 land just north of the current development area. Plus another major growth cell exists to the northwest, in Rotokauri; this area is just 1km west of Te Rapa along Avalon Drive, has a long-term capacity of up to around +20,000 people, with development just commencing. According to recent population projections prepared by University of Waikato-population studies department, around 40% of the City s future growth over the next 20 years will occur in the northern fringe areas (more details contained in Report Section 3.1(a) following). Overall, the Te Rapa area has to be considered a very strategic location for retailing activities. Substantial opportunity for future expansion still remains within zoned land. The area s general location at/near a major cross-roads provides relatively easy access to a large customer catchment, particularly across the northern half of the City and also northern rural areas. And there are strong expectations for a major share of new population growth around the city to occur nearby, plus growth in surrounding rural districts. These features imply ongoing support to retailing in and around the Te Rapa area.

35 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 35 of 185 (iii) Chartwell The Chartwell retail area is comprised of two sections : Westfield Mall, and adjacent Lynden Court. Chartwell is located in the northeast sector of the City, near the intersection of the Wairere Drive expressway and Hukunui Road : Wairere Drive is part of a future ring-road around the city area providing access across the River into Te Rapa as well as leading elsewhere around the city, while Hukunui Road is part of the main north-south route through the eastside of Hamilton eg. Hukunui Road Peachgrove Road connection runs from top to bottom of the City along the eastside. Chartwell Mall was first built in At that time, its location was literally at the edge of the City. Since then, the Mall has been upgraded and extended several times, responding to growth in the surrounding catchment. The latest expansion has occurred during 2007, taking total retail floorspace up to 22,000m2GFA including a new cinema complex. This is a significant sized mall under any definition eg. for comparison, other Westfield Malls in Auckland include Newmarket ,000m2; Pakuranga 28,000m2; Glenfield North Shore 31,000m2; Manukau City 32,000m2. Consequently, it is not surprising to find the customer catchment spanning a large area of the city and including a large support sector coming from nearby rural areas (further explained in Report Section 2 following). Across the street from the Mall is Lynden Court. This area is comprised of approximately 4,500m2GFA and contains 12 shops spanning restaurants/fast food/ takeaways, video, liquor, butcher, Arbuckles, Warehouse Stationery, and a large bar. In addition are several street-front businesses including real estate, veterinary, locksmith, specialist medical centre, Council library, and petrol station. In total, the Chartwell retail offer now stands at around 27,000m2 GFA. The offer spans a wide range of goods and services, from everyday convenience items including a large Foodtown supermarket, to a very wide range of specialty shops particularly in the clothes shoes fashion accessories sector, homewares and furnishings, and also some entertainment with a new cinema complex and associated food court restaurants cafes. And noteworthy, further expansion is proposed at the Mall. A resource consent was issued in early 2008 for the addition of another 7,000m2GFA, taking the Mall size to around 29,000m2GFA, a large mall by any definition. Hence, Chartwell is far greater than a local suburban centre, filling a dual-function as a suburban centre for convenience goods and services and also as a regional centre for a wide range of specialty retailing; its broad customer catchment reflects this. Strong population growth has been an important driver behind Chartwell s progressive expansion, with the northeast sector of the City being an important growth focus for many years. This growth impetus is continuing today, only further north in the Rototuna area. During the past ten years, well over half of the city s growth has occurred in the northern suburbs, in particular the northeastern fringe known as Rototuna. The Rototuna area alone accounted for 65% of all city growth between , and 45% of all growth between And there is still significant growth capacity, with +15,000 growth capacity in Rototuna, and long-term perhaps as much as another +20,000 in urban growth inthe HT1 land just north of the current development area. Additional longer-term growth potential is found along the eastern fringe of the city, much of this being relatively close to Chartwell.

36 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 36 of 185 Overall, Chartwell Centre, particularly the Mall, holds a unique position in the wider city retail hierarchy. It is far more than a local suburban centre; its specialty shop offer particularly in clothing shoes fashion accessories is second in size only to the City Centre. Recent expansion to the Mall was completed during 2007, and further expansion is proposed. Thus, the wide customer catchment supporting this centre is understandable, both today and looking forward to the future. (iv) Other Suburban Centres Once the three major retail centres of the CBD, Te Rapa and Chartwell are accounted for, all other centres around the City are substantially smaller in scale and product offer. Effectively, these other centres can be described as local suburban centres, often anchored by a supermarket, and having a strong bias towards everyday convenience-type goods and services that it, these centres are the local for those items commonly used and purchased on a frequent basis. There are several suburban centres around the City. Actual m2/gfa measurements for these smaller centres are not always available, but as an indication of their size a land area measurement has been obtaining from Council s GIS section which identifies the size of zoned land in commercial area x. The Suburban Centres include: Suburban Centres West / Southwest Dinsdale ha, including Woolworths supermkt Nawton ha, including small Countdown Avalon Dr/DominionRd ha, no supermarket Frankton ha, no supermarket Glenview ha, including New World supermkt East / Southeast Hillcrest ha, including New World supermkt Hillcrest/Clyde Rd ha, including small Warehouse Hamilton East/Grey St ha, no supermarket Five Cross Roads ha, no supermarket Heaphy Terrace ha, small New World supermkt Northeast Thomas Road north ha, including New World supermkt Thomas Rd south ha, including Woolworths supermkt Flagstaff ha, no supermarket Total ha The largest suburban centres by land area are : Thomas Road north, and Thomas Road south Enderley Hamilton East. Dinsdale,

37 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 37 of 185 Thomas Road north and south is located in the northeast, in the Rototuna growth sector. These are two new suburban centres that have been built across the street from each other during Each centre has a supermarket, complimented by a range of small shops with a high emphasise on convenience-type activities eg. chemist, bookshop, video, restaurants/ takeaways, gifts, gym/fitness, petrol station. Enderley is an older centre located in the central east, at Five-Cross Roads round-about which is a major roading intersection. Notable about Enderley is that it is predominantly a strip centre fronting the main road of Peachgrove Avenue, but with a newer section found behind the road-front shops in the southeast quadrant where shops has been developed around a carpark. The general area has a wide range of retail activities, but the one missing component is a supermarket. Hamilton East along Grey Street near Clyde Road, is one of the original commercial centres, but it has never expanded greatly beyond its early development. There is no supermarket here (but several just across the Bridge St. Bridge running into the city centre). However, there are many everyday convenience-type shops, and also a collection of restaurants/cafes, and a sub-theme in antiques/2 nd hand goods. Dinsdale is an older centre located in the western suburbs. The oldest part consists of a strip of shops along both sides of the road frontage; a newer section is found behind the road-front shops on the south side, including a Woolworths supermarket and a small Mitre 10 store. The centre also includes a community library and community hall. After the larger suburban centres, there are several smaller suburban centres usually under 2ha in land area. The nature of these centres is basically a smaller version of a suburban centre, often based around a small supermarket with a limited range of other local shops. Clearly, the nature of retailing found in these suburban centres is substantially different from the dominant retailing activities found in the CBD, or Te Rapa, or Chartwell. The difference in shopping appeal for a retail centre up to 10,000m2/GFA as found at the larger suburban centres, compared to 179,000m2/GFA found in the CBD, or around 120,000m2/GFA found in the Te Rapa area, or 27,000m2/GFA found at Chartwell, is obviously substantial. Not only are the suburban centres considerably smaller in size, but so is the product offer and thus the customer catchment supporting such centres. Catchments are far more local in scale, which is understandable given the nature of goods and services on offered are focused on frequently used everyday convenience items. There is no good reason for customers to make a shopping trip across town for everyday goods when they can obtain similar items at a nearby suburban shopping centre. Future Growth at the City fringe in new growth cells like Rototuna (northeast), Rotokauri (northwest), Peacockes (southwest) and perhaps Ruakura (east) can be expected to require provision for additional retailing in the form and scale of local suburban centres.

38 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 38 of 185 (v) Corner Shops and Dairies Neighbourhood / corner shops are even smaller, usually well under 1ha of land. These centres are comprised of the usual dairy-superette / takeaway/ chemist/ hairdresser type of corner shops, highly focused on convenience to customers living in immediately local neighbours plus a bit of passing traffic. Examples of neighbour/corner shops include: West / Southwest Glenview shops ha East / Southeast GreySt/TeAroha shops ha Grey St / O Neill shops ha Lower Grey St shops ha Hillcrest shops ha Northeast Queenswood /shops ha Hukanuni/Clarkin shops ha Clarking/Heaphy Terrace ha Bankwood Rd shops ha Tramway/Fifth Ave shops ha Powell Rd/Fairview Downs ha North Pukete Rd shops ha Sandwich Rd shops ha Heath St shops ha Braid Rd shops ha Total ha Dairies are the ultimate convenience shop, located at a street corner near you. Council s planning department recently completed a brief research overview on these types of very local retail activities around the City. A survey of dairies (sometimes part of of small corner shops) around Hamilton City showed there were 51 dairies around the city (being outside of any suburban or larger shopping centres). This is a gross ratio of 1 dairy : 2,600 population. The study also found that : 24% of all dairies are stand-alone 76% have other shops located adjacent... of which 60% have 6 or less shops. Regarding the dairies with associated shops, local convenience type shops represent the nature of most shops. The key shops included: Takeaways/fast foods/lunch bar = next to 95% of all dairies Hairdressers 55% Bakery 33% Café/restaurant 30% Fruit/veges; Butcher; Deli 30% Liquor 30%

39 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 39 of 185 In other words, where dairies are located with other small shops (76% of all dairies) : almost all dairies can be found in association with some form of takeaways half of all dairies can be found in association with a hairdresser; and 1/3 rd of all dairies can be found in association with other local convenience food shops like a bakery, fruit/veges, butcher, deli, liquor store, or café/restaurant Obviously, planning for specific dairy locations is at a very detailed level. But it is noteworthy that dairies/corner shops are an important feature to neighbourhoods. And this is likely to increase given current trends back to more localised goods and services. It is understood that Council s planning department is considering some possible changes to residential development rules that would help provide for dairies. (vi) Overall Retail Hierarchy Respecting the above findings about the nature of existing retail centres found around the City, a summary statement explaining the City s retail hierarchy would identify: A dominant CBD focus, where retail floorspace is equal to the size of all other retailing found elsewhere around the city, offering a wide range of speciality shop and large-format retailing, as well as restaurants/cafes and other entertainment activities, with customer support coming from city-wide as well as region-wide sources. A dominant focus of large-format retailing in the Te Rapa area, with ongoing expansion potential; this area provides a second focus for largeformat retailing additional to such businesses found around the CBD. A wide customer catchment supports businesses in this area. A large specialty shopping mall in Chartwell, offering a range of retailing spanning everyday convenience-type activities plus a large offer in specialty shopping particularly in the clothing shoes fashion accessories sector, plus some entertainment activities (cinema and eating out); this provides a second focus for specialty fashion shopping and for some entertainment. A series of suburban shopping centres scattered around the City, usually well under 10,000m2GFA, and often including a supermarket as the main attractor complimented with a range of small shops and services. The dominant focus for retail businesses in these centres is everyday conveniencetype activities, and consequently the customer catchments are far more local in scale (suburban, certainly not city-wide or region-wide). A collection of small neighbourhood corner shops, usually comprised of activities like a dairy-superette, takeaways, hairdresser and perhaps a few other businesses. These shops are highly focused on convenience to immediately local neighbourhoods, often fulfilling a top-up shopping role between major shopping trips to a larger retail centre. A number of freestanding dairies/corner shops (outside of retail centres) across the city serving very local convenience needs. The demand for such local shops looks to be returning. Following is MAP 2 identifying the network of existing major and suburban retail centres found around Hamilton City.

40 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 40 of 185 MAP 2

41 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 41 of 185 (b) Waikato District As already noted, Waikato District is predominantly a rural-based population. The two largest towns are Ngaruawahia and Huntly with 5,500 7,000 township population each collectively, these two towns account for about 30% of the District population. Otherwise, the next largest population centres are small community centres, being part of the 70% rural population base. For residents in the two main towns, local retail shops are important for everyday convenience shopping. Both towns have local supermarkets and a range of small shops, but there is a notable absence of most other large retailers. Hence, Hamilton retailing is an important destination for many residents (eg. according to the household survey completed during October 2007, well over half of all residents make use of Hamilton retailers for a wide range of goods -- refer: Part B for more details). Given the large area covered by Waikato District, shopping patterns differ somewhat by area. For example, Ngaruawahia residents are frequent users of Hamilton shops for a very wide range of activities. The shopping survey identified a usage rate of less than 50% for local shops in all categories excepting everyday goods at 60%. Conversely, Huntly has a much higher level of local shopping for many activities, with usual exceptions for specialist goods like clothing/shoes, furniture/appliances, and car purchases. Rural areas in the southern sectors of the District make use of Hamilton shops particularly for specialist goods, and also around 50/50 for everyday-type shopping. For areas in the north of the District (eg. Te Kawhata, Meremere and Maramarua), Auckland is identified as an important preferred shopping option -- around 40% of residents in these areas make use of Auckland retailers for many types of goods. Overall, retailing found around the District has a high level of local components only; otherwise, out-of-district shopping is required at the nearest larger market, like either Hamilton or Auckland. This type of shopping pattern is not unusual for rural areas. The distribution of the district population across a large land area lacks any type of critical mass to support higher levels of retail activities. The absence of local largeformat retailers or other specialist retailers, for example, is not a statement about lack of shopping interest or support from local residents but rather a reflection of business economics large retailers require large population catchments and spending capacities to support large sales at such stores; the same applies to specialty shops offering a finely focused range of goods, thus requiring a large population catchment to attract sufficient sales to support such specialty items. Consequently we get, the shopping pattern that exists today which shows an absence of specialist and large-format stores within the District and a high level of shopping by District residents undertaken in Hamilton (as the nearest option for most residents). The entire population base of Waikato District currently stands at around 43,450 people. From a business perspective, 40-50,000 people tends to represent a minimum threshold necessary to support many large format retailers. At a Districtwide level, minimum numbers look to be met, but a closer look at the distribution of this population vs. the convenience of alternative shopping options in Hamilton (or Auckland for northern-sector residents) quickly reduces the market potential well below acceptable commercial standards.

42 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 42 of 185 For example, the District s population distribution can be broadly allocated as follows: Population at 2006 North Rural / TeKauwhata 4,530 (TeKauwhata,Waerenga, Maramarua, Meremere) West Rural / Raglan 5,415 (Raglan, Te Uku, Te Akau) East Rural / Whitikahu 2,110 Huntly township 7,100 and areas in relatively close proximity to Hamilton City fringe west 8,325 (Western Hills, Horotiu, TeKowhai, Whatawhata) City fringe east 6,035 (Taupiri, Eureka, Gordonton, Kaunui) Southeast / Tamahere 6,585 (Matangi, Tamahere) Ngaruawahia township 5,300 45,400 While the land area of Waikato District is large, just over half (about 58%) of the population is spread in a U shape around the northern, western and eastern fringes of Hamilton City. Noteworthy about this population distribution pattern is that most areas are within relatively short travel times/ distances to Hamilton City as the nearest large market with a wide range of goods and services, eg. Ngaruawahia and areas in the Western Hills (Te Kowhai, Whatawhata) are around minutes drive to The Base; Gordonton and areas east are around minutes drive to Chartwell; Tamahere and areas southeast are minutes drive to the City CBD while Raglan in the southwest is closer to a 30 minutes drive to the CBD; and areas in the Northern Sector (TeKauwhata, Meremere, Maramarua) show a strong association with Auckland shopping. It is also noteworthy that a high level of the Waikato District resident labour force actually works in Hamilton City some 32% on average, and over 40% (even up to 50%) in areas closest to Hamilton like Ngaruawahia, Western Hills, and the eastern sector. Regular travel for work into the city has an influence on shopping eg. in the household survey exercise, one question asked about the frequency of workers making shopping trips before or after work, and 66% said yes. The above features represent the key background issues for planning for usual retailing -- that is, retailing used by residents. Additionally, it is noted that the District Council has some ideas for developing tourist activities in various areas around the District. The demand for retail in support of such niche development will reflect whatever specific details emerge in any given project and will need to be assessed on a project by project basis. The regional retail study has maintained a focus on usual retailing and has not considered any specialist activities that may or may not emerge from things like a tourist centre. So, against this broad background for usual retailing, the existing retail network across the District consists of the following.

43 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 43 of 185 (i) Ngaruawahia The Ngaruawahia township is located in close proximity to Hamilton City about 12kms / minutes drive in traffic from The Base at the city s north end, and another 7kms / minutes drive further south into the city centre or eastward across the River to Chartwell. Given this close proximity, in many ways Ngaruawahia is functioning as a dormitory suburb to Hamilton. For example, according to home-to-work travel data from the census, over 50% of working adults in Ngaruawahia travel into Hamilton for work. The significance of this to retailing is that such workers have relatively easy access to shopping in Hamilton on a frequent basis because they are already in the area for work (and as already noted, many workers actually do shopping while on a work trip). Ngaruawahia is the second largest township in the District some 5,300 people in the township. In recent years the Ngaruawahia population base has had a declining trend, but current population projections expect this to change around into positive growth and regard can be given to this for future planning. The results from the household shopping survey confirm the high level of usage of Hamilton retailers by local Ngaruawahia residents. For example: - supermarket = 45% shop local - everyday goods = 60% - furniture/appliances = 2% - banking = 35% - clothing / shoes = 0% - medical /dental = 33% - hardware/building = 0% - petrol = 68% - car purchase = 0% Hence, it is reasonable to describe the nature of existing Ngaruawahia retailers as very much convenience shopping serving a relatively small and localised catchment. The core retail precinct is found at the Ngaruwahia town centre, around Jesmond Street, Princess Street, and the State Hwy. The largest retailer is a New World Supermarket, around 2000m2 and centrally located in the town centre; there is also a small Super Value supermarket around 800m2, located outside the town centre near the southern fringe of the township along the State Hwy. Additionally, a range of small shops are found around the town centre eg. dairies, chemist, stationer, butcher, fruit/veges, video, hair salons, 2 nd hand goods, cafes, takeaways, retail liquor and taverns, petrol, real estate offices, and two banks -- essentially, businesses providing for everyday needs. The town centre area also includes a new library, Waikato District offices, police and fire services, a medical centre, and local offices for Work&Income and Housing NZ. In total, around 50 businesses are found here. A notable feature about the nature of local retail shops is the absence of nationalbrand retailers rather, most businesses are independently owned/ operated. This feature is commonly found in smaller localised shopping precincts, and in the instance of Ngaruawahia it is a reflection on the limited extent of the trading influence able to be achieved from Ngaruawahia-based businesses.

44 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 44 of 185 Looking forward, around a 50% increase in the Ngaruawahia population base is projected over the next 20 years which will add some new retail demand. On the other hand, The Base and other Te Rapa retailing is only about a 10 minute drive down the road, and this retail focal-point has potential for substantial expansion still to come not only in size but in the range of retailing available. Also noteworthy, the existing Ngaruawahia town centre business area has some capacity for accommodating new development within existing land areas, and also many existing businesses have a capacity for expanded trade within the existing business infrastructure. Given these market features, the key focus for retail businesses here will most likely be a continuation of the existing emphasis on local and convenience businesses serving the immediate trade catchment. Demand for new development will emerge as new population growth actually emerges, a factor that can be monitored by Council. Given growth capacities within existing land areas and existing businesses, there looks to be limited need for expanding the current town centre commercial land area. Rather, the focus for future development will likely be on accommodating changes and re-development in specific businesses and properties within the established town centre precinct. (ii) Huntly Huntly township is located another 14kms north of Ngaruawahia, or some 26kms north of The Base / Te Rapa, Hamilton. For many years now, the local Huntly economy has been dependent on four key activities electricity generation, coal mining, quarrying, and farming in surrounding rural areas. While these key businesses continue today, there is also a degree of worker commuting out-of-town into Hamilton (eg. around 15% work in Hamilton refer: work-to-home data in census), and also some emerging commuting into Auckland. The township is the largest in the District, at 7,100 people, with around another 2,500 people in the immediately local rural base. A notable trend about the Huntly population base is that it is more or less static : declining between , followed by very limited growth between Furthermore, limited growth is projected over the next 20 years maybe, around +800 people / +10%. So, population growth is not a significant factor to future retail planning. The retail scene in Huntly is distinctly local in nature. There are two parts to the main retail focus : the traditional town centre fronting the old main highway (now circumvented by a by-pass), and a new focal-point at the intersection of the State Hwy with Tainui Bridge which leads across the Waikato River into Huntly West. The traditional town centre is comprised of mostly independently owned/operated small shops; there are few national-branded stores here. The business emphasis is on convenient everyday goods and services. Overall, there are some 75 retail businesses here, including council offices / civic centre / and library. A notable feature about the town centre location is that it is squeezed between the river, the railway lines and the state highway with no significant land area available for expansion. Hence, more recent development (say, over the past 10 years) has been focused about 1km south of the town centre, at the Tainui Bridge junction; here is

45 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 45 of 185 found a large Shell petrol station with McDonalds and KFC fast-food restaurants and bakery which also serve travellers along the State Highway. A new Countdown supermarket has been developed nearby. The Countdown supermarket is relatively new (opening late 2007), and quite large for a small town (3,500m2 GFA), but it is also a replacement of an older smaller store that previously existed. The customer trade catchment for this store goes south to the Taupiri area, north to Te Kauwhata, and east and west through nearby rural areas. Key results from the household shopping survey highlight a high level of local shop usage : - supermarket = 84% shop local - everyday goods = 92% - furniture/appliances = 26% - banking = 76% - clothing / shoes = 8% - medical /dental = 74% - hardware/building = 76% - petrol = 80% - car purchase = 15% Overall, Huntly residents are far more self-sufficient in using local businesses for a majority of retail needs - only the specialist areas of clothing, furniture/appliances, and car purchases require significant out-of-town shopping, and Hamilton is the first preference for these items. Looking forward, these market features suggest continuation of the existing locallyfocused retail business base. Commercial justification for more retailing like specialist or large-format activities is unlikely given the small size of the local market, slow growth in the local population, and relatively easy access to alternative shopping options predominantly in Hamilton. (iii) North eg.te Kauwhata, Meremere, Maramarua communities The Northern Sector of the District has an alternative retail influence : the Auckland market. The line of demarcation between Auckland vs Hamilton influence looks to be around the Te Kauwhata area: areas northward favour the use of Auckland retailers (eg.from Meremere, Hampton Downs, Maramarua, including Te Kauwhata). For example, the household shopping survey identified that across the Northern Sector: - place of employment= 40% Auckland; 40% Waikato District - supermarket = 36% Auckland; 30% Huntly; 9% Hamilton - everyday goods = 30% Auckland; 50% TeKauwhata; 9% Hamilton - furniture/appliances = 43% Auckland; 12% Huntly; 29% Hamilton - banking = 39% Auckland; 35% Huntly; 16% Hamilton - clothing / shoes = 40% Auckland; 10% Huntly; 30% Hamilton - medical /dental = 30% Auckland; 21% Huntly; 33% TeKau; 8% Ham - hardware/building = 39% Auckland; 27% Huntly; 9%TeKau; 12% Ham - petrol = 26% Auckland; 18% Huntly; 29%TeKau; 4% Ham - car purchase = 42% Auckland; 4% Huntly; 24% Hamilton - usual large-format centre = 43% Auckland; 38% Hamilton

46 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 46 of 185 In other words, Auckland is a significant source for all types of goods and services, with Hamilton being of secondary importance. And, importantly, the nature of the community centres in the Northern Sector are very local in nature; the small population base around each centre limits business potential to this type of activity only. Te Kauwhata community The Te Kauwhata community centre is located about 1.5kms off the State Hwy. This is an old community centre, initially developed alongside the railway lines. Today, there are 18 businesses in the centre, 1 x vacant shop, and one large vacant site. The businesses span common everyday activities : superette, chemist, takeaways, café, hardware, hair salon, real estate, town hall / community centre / library / Plunket rooms, and veterinary. So, overall, the community centre has a local focus, and it has capacity for expansion in terms of spare land and spare business trading capacity. The greater Te Kauwhata community has around 1200 people, but most are spread through the nearby rural countryside. Still, reasonable growth is occurring around +100 every 5-years during and census periods. Notably, looking forward 20 years, future population projections suggest growth of +2300, representing growth of almost +200% over current levels, and taking the local population up to around 3,500. This scale of growth will place some demand on new retailing over time, predominantly for local convenience activities. As elsewhere, retail growth will respond to actual population growth occurring. Fortunately, the Te Kauwhata centre has land capacity to accommodate a considerable amount of new development, so there is no likely need to expand the commercial base to the centre but rather a need to progressively improve the integration of the centre as new development and business expansion emerges. For other shopping needs besides local goods and services, travel distances are similar whether heading south to Hamilton (50kms to the Hamilton CBD) or north to Auckland (35kms to Pukekohe; 40kms to Papakura; 50kms to Manukau City Centre). Meremere/Hampton Downs This area is definitely within the Auckland zone of influence. Today, this area has no defined community centre; there are no shops or services. This is not surprising given there are only around 480 residents in the general area. But this area is also subject to change. A new women s prison has recently opened in the area, with a new workforce is expected to progressively move into the area. Also, a new international raceway circuit is being built, along with an associated business centre intended to emphasise vehicle and racing oriented businesses. New population growth in this area is projected at +200 over the next 20 years, plus possibly some influence from businesses in the raceway project. Collectively, these new activities will possibly create limited support for a small local retail centre in the future, but the key emphasise will be local retailing, and the scale will be highly dependant on what actually occurs in the area over time.

47 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 47 of 185 Maramarua The Maramarua community is at the northern edge of the District, positioned along State Hwy 2. This is predominantly an agricultural area with dairying, deer farming, maize cropping, and some beef grazing. There is no defined community centre; rather, there are a few activities stretched along about 2kms of the highway, including: Red Fox Tavern, café, gifts/crafts, school, community hall, rugby club and field, petrol station and café. The supporting population is light around 980 people, with limited growth into the future eg projected over the next 20 years. The nearest alternative retail centre is either Pukekohe(15kms) or Papakura(20kms). Subject to some major change occurring in the nature of development permitted in this area, there is little potential for much change in the local retail offer this area will continue to be served in a manner similar to existing arrangements. (iv) Taupiri community This community is located virtually mid-point between Huntly and Ngaruawahia, around 7kms travel distance either way along State Hwy 1. Hamilton centres are : 25kms due south through Gordonton to Chartwell, or 20kms to The Base through Ngaruawahia. The community population is small, 470 people, with limited growth at +100 people expected over the next years. Hence, retail is very limited a dairy/superette, and 2 x cafes along the State Hwy, an RD1 farming supplier and retailer, auto supplies outlet, a veterinary, and a farm technology outlet (milking systems, water pumps, etc). Alternative centres at Huntly or Ngaruawahia, but especially Hamilton, will continue to be important. (v) Southwest eg. Western Hills, Te Kowhai, Whatawhata communities Some 30% of the District s population is found in the Southwest Sector, generally positioned between Hamilton City s western boundary and the west coast. Almost two-thirds of these residents (60%/8,300 people) are located in the Western Hills/Te Kowhai/Whatawhata areas closest to Hamilton, with the remainder (40% / 5,400 people) in the Raglan / Te Uku / Te Akau rural areas closer to the west coast. The Western Hills area falls strongly within the retail influence of Hamilton City about a minute drive is required to reach most parts of the City. This area has a dispersed population, with an emphasis on lifestyle blocks. The communities of Te Kowhai and Whatawhata are small, and so are local retail businesses : generally comprised of activities like a petrol station, dairy/superette, and a tavern.

48 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 48 of 185 Notable about the Western Hills sector is above-average growth rates. 29% of all growth in the District occurred here between : worth +1,180 people. Looking forward, strong growth continues to be expected : +3,900 over the next 20 years almost a 50% increase on current levels. The household shopping survey highlighted the importance of the Hamilton CBD for many goods and services: - place of employment= 78% Hamilton - supermarket = 56% CBD; 22% Dinsdale; 18% Te Rapa - everyday goods = 32% CBD; 34% Dinsdale; 14% Te Rapa - furniture/appliances = 44% CBD; 32% Te Rapa - banking = 48% CBD; 10% Dinsdale; 12% Te Rapa - clothing / shoes = 50% CBD; 30% Te Rapa; 12% Chartwell - medical /dental = 45% CBD; 14% Dinsdale; 14% Te Rapa - hardware/building = 34% CBD; 2% Dinsdale; 54% Te Rapa - petrol = 28% CBD; 30% Dinsdale; 22% Te Rapa - car purchase = 50% CBD; 14% Te Rapa In other words, for western rural areas : Dinsdale (a local suburban centre near the western fringe of the city) is often used for everyday type goods and services, but the CBD is definitely a preferred shopping destination for a wide range of activities. Into the future, even though strong growth is expected this will be combined with a dispersed population base. So, overall, there is some potential for expansion of a few more small local shops clustered around the existing community centres at Te Kowhai and Whatawhata. But the relatively close proximity to shops and services in Hamilton, and the very strong employment relationship with Hamilton (78% of all working residents going to Hamilton for jobs), will maintain a limit on new retail development locally. (vi) Raglan / Te Uku / West Coast areas The Raglan area is a somewhat remote sector of the District, located on the west side of the Western Hills, between the Hills and the West Coast. The population is light through this area, around 5,400. Population growth over recent years has been slow, +190 people over the 5-year period But looking forward, growth is expected to increase somewhat : projected at over the next 20 years. Still, these are not large numbers in terms of significantly changing retail demand factors. Raglan community is some 45kms west of Hamilton City. Noteworthy about this area is that its location is broadly like being at the end of a cul-de-sac with virtually all travel having to be made on just one main road which is Hwy 23 running directly into Hamilton. There is no other alternative commercial/retail centre of any significance nearby to serve residents in this area.

49 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 49 of 185 This situation is borne out by the household shopping survey results which clearly identify Hamilton as the primary source for virtually all types of retail goods and services, but also notes that Raglan community centre is frequently used for everyday activities: - place of employment= 54% Waikato; 26% Hamilton - supermarket = 16% local; 60% CBD; 12% Dinsdale - everyday goods = 84% local; 6% CBD; 8% Dinsdale; - furniture/appliances = 0% local; 72% CBD - banking = 46% local; 30% CBD - clothing / shoes = 6% local; 66% CBD; 14% Te Rapa; 4% Chart - medical /dental = 58% local; 34% CBD; 2% Dinsdale - hardware/building = 26% local; 36% CBD; 20% Te Rapa;2% Dinsdale - petrol = 56% local; 22% CBD; 12% Dinsdale - car purchase = 4% local; 56% CBD The above results confirm that Hamilton is an important destination for the full range of goods and services. Even everyday activities like everyday goods, banking, medical, and petrol only achieve around 50% local usage. This reflects the nature of local shops at Raglan centre, which include: a large 4-Square superette around 800m2GFA, hardware, chemist, medical centre, petrol, takeaways, café, and a few others. Beyond local businesses, the Hamilton CBD is the obvious first choice, with a secondary choice in Dinsdale suburban centre located close to the western fringe of the City. Today, Raglan centre provides very local convenience shopping only, and on a limited scale. Given the nature of the area remote, with a limited and dispersed population, and with reasonable growth but still small numbers there is a limited likelihood for any significant change to the existing retail offer and shopping patterns. Hamilton, as the closest shopping alternative, is going to remain the primary source for most goods and services. Council ideas for greater development of a tourist centre in Raglan could introduce a degree of niche retail which can be responded to as details emerge, but for the time being this will have little influence on demand for usual retailing. (vii) Southeast eg. Gordonton, Eureka, Matangi, Tamahere areas The Southeast Sector comprises a small portion of the District s overall land area, about 10%; it is a relatively long narrow area of land running along the City s eastern boundary. But it is noteworthy that this small area includes 27% of the population base and was the source for 51% of all new growth occurring in the District between Essentially this area is predominantly comprised of lifestyle blocks, all located within minutes driving time from the City. The only established community centre of note is at Gordonton, positioned some 13kms northeast of Chartwell Centre. The Gordonton community centre includes : 2 x cafes, art gallery, gifts, petrol & vehicle servicing, veterinary, hair/nails salon, garden centre, furniture, and Environment Waikato works depot. 2 x churches, primary school, community hall, cemetery

50 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 50 of 185 Elsewhere, there is little retailing anywhere in this area. Accordingly, Hamilton based businesses are the primary source for retail goods and services, with Cambridge of secondary importance, as confirmed by the household shopping survey results : - place of employment= 45% Hamilton; Waikato 30%; 7% Waipa - supermarket = 40% CBD; 21% Cambridge; 15% Hillcrest - everyday goods = 22% CBD; 19% Cambridge; 22% Hillcrest - furniture/appliances = 64% CBD; 18% Te Rapa - banking = 29% CBD; 26% Cambridge; 12% Hillcrest - clothing / shoes = 53% CBD; 24% Chartwell - medical /dental = 27% CBD; 22% Cambridge; 13% Hillcrest - hardware/building = 37% CBD; 24% Cambridge; 30% TeRapa - petrol = 35% CBD; 12% Cambridge; 16% Hillcrest - car purchase = 62% CBD For everyday activities, the nearest local retail centres for many residents are either : Hillcrest, located at the southeast fringe in Hamilton City, Thomas Road, located at the northeast fringe in Hamilton City, or, Cambridge town centre. But, notably, the most important destination for virtually all retail activities is the CBD. A unique feature about the Southeast Sector is that, historically, many of the farm landholdings had been subdivided into small blocks even though many have been maintained as part of larger farm units. In recent years, lifestyle blocks have been sold off using the historical land subdivisions, and this has been the source of strong new population growth. For example, between , 50% of the District s growth occurred in the Southeast Sector. And into the future, good growth is expected to continue with the Southeast Sector expected to account for 33% of all future District growth [refer: Report Section 3.1(b) for more details]. Looking forward, the area really needs to be divided into two sectors. This is because the general Southeast sector is a long and narrow land area, and distances between the north and south create different shopping patterns. Therefore, we have looked at future need in terms of a northern sector eg. Gordonton, and a southern sector eg. Tamahere. Gordonton Gordonton is located to the northeast of the City. The general area includes the community of Gordonton, the Kainui rural sector to the west, and the Eureka rural sector to the east and southeast. Today, Gordonton is a small community with a handful of shops including cafes, arts and gifts. But there are notable absences in usual everyday activities like dairy/superette, chemist, petrol. Alternatively, it is about 8kms travel into the Thomas Road suburban centre at the northeast fringe of the City, with 2 x supermarkets and many other goods and services The absence of some key everyday retailers is an indication that, today, the economic support for a wider range of shops does not exist at Gordonton, particularly given alternative shopping within a reasonable travel distance to Thomas Road shops.

51 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 51 of 185 In the longer term, ongoing population growth may help improve this situation eg. +3,900 across this sector. However, the actual distribution of this growth is important to have regard to eg in Gordonton, in the Kainui rural sector to the west of Gordonton (between Gordonton and the Waikato River), and +600 in the Eureka rural sector to the east of Gordonton. Noteworthy, strongest growth is in the Kainui area which, besides being to the west of Gordonton, is also directly north of the Rototuna growth cell in Hamilton. Within Rototuna is found the Thomas Road suburban centre (actually, two centres across the street from each other), and also the likelihood of a new Rototuna town centre which is proposed as a mixed use centre including retail activities consistent with a suburban centre scale. Additionally, not far away is Chartwell Mall offering a wider range of retail and entertainment activities. All these centres will continue to influence the shopping patterns of residents in and around Gordonton, having the effect of limiting demand for local shops. So, looking forward at Gordonton, there should be potential for some additional small shops. However, the likely scale will be small estimated at +/- 1000m2GFA, certainly local in trading patterns, and will respond to actual population growth progressively occurring in the area. More likely, the Gordonton area has a future as a niche retail focal point for cafes/arts/crafts/garden-centres/hand-made furniture and furnishings, etc. This type of activity is distinctly non-mainstream retail, and can be provided for and encouraged by Council as an addition to the limited demand for mainstream retail as explained above. Tamahere-Matangi The Tamahere Matangi area is at the very southeast edge of Waikato District, generally positioned between Hamilton City to the north and Cambridge township to the south. Today there are no notable retail facilities in this area. On the other hand, the area does have a reasonable population base of around 6,600 today, although it is dispersed across a lifestyle-block living area, so there is no established focal point today. Looking forward, growth of around is projected over the next 20 years. Respecting the population base in this area, Council has expressed some interest for establishing some form of local retail centre somewhere in this area. A logical position would be somewhere along the State Hwy 1 route which is semi-central to this area. The scale of any new centre here will be distinctly local, given existing shopping alternatives relatively nearby either to the south in Cambridge or to the north in Hamilton. Somewhat comparable, Waipa District has proposed a new local retail centre of around 4,800m2 near the airport including a small supermarket up to 1000m2 However, the airport retail centre also has expectations to serve an expanding business/industrial base at the airport plus an expanding air-traffic passenger base using the airport. Neither of these additional customer generators will apply at Tamahere, so the scale of demand for a local centre can be expected to be smaller. Our expectation is for a local centre around +/- 3,000m2 GFA.

52 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 52 of 185 Overall in the Southeast Sector, new population growth is expected to be significant, worth 33% of the District s total growth expectations over the next 20 years. However, at the big-picture level this growth will do little to change the prevailing shopping patterns which show a very high level of shopping at City businesses, and secondarily in Cambridge town centre particularly by residents in the south. The population base is still light in absolute numbers, will continue to be highly dispersed, and lifestyle block residents can be expected to continue to emphasise an employment base in the City (eg. around 45% of current working adults travel into the City for work). These features reduce the practical demand/justification for any major development of new retailing in the area. The exceptions are likely to be : in the north, some limited expansion of the Gordonton community centre for more local/convenience shopping, around +/- 1000m2GFA in the south, potential for a small local convenience centre in the Tamahere area, around +/- 3000m2GFA, specific location and details to be determined (viii) Overall Retail Hierarchy Respecting the above findings about the nature of existing retail centres found around Waikato District, the District s retail hierarchy can be explained as follows: A notable feature about the District which has a direct influence on the retail hierarchy is its population distribution 58% within a minute drive of Hamilton City : -- 18% is found in the Southwest sector, especially along the City s western edge; -- 28% is found in the Southeast along the City s eastern fringe; -- 12% is found just north of the City eg. Ngaruawahia and nearby rural areas 58% Also, the majority of District residents live in rural areas. There are only two significant town centres, Huntly and Ngaruawahia, which collectively account for about 30% of the District s population; the remaining 70% are rurally based, including some small rural community centres comprising a few hundred residents each. Accordingly, the nature of retailing found around the District is distinctly local : (i) (ii) (iii) the town centres of Huntly and Ngaruawahia have local supermarkets plus a range of small shops emphasising everyday convenience goods and services; but for everything else, Hamilton is a very important shopping destination. Huntly is more self-sufficient than Ngaruawahia in terms of local shop usage; Huntly residents use Hamilton shops mostly for specialist goods and services, while Ngaruawahia residents use Hamilton shops for a very wide range of activities. smaller rural community centres have only very local shops such as dairy/superette, café/takeaways, hair salon, liquor/tavern, petrol, hardware, banking -- eg. at Maramarua, Te Kauwhata, Taupiri, Gordonton, Te Kowhai, Whatawhata, Raglan; thus, alternative retail centres are heavily used areas in the south of the District emphasise the use of Hamilton businesses, while Auckland businesses are strongly used by northern-sector residents.

53 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 53 of 185 (iv) overall, there is a distinct low level of usage (below 50%) of local businesses in most shop categories, with Hamilton retail businesses being the preferred shopping option; for example, even everyday activities like supermarket, everyday shops, petrol, medical/dental, and banking show below 50% of District residents using local businesses, and below 10% for specialist areas like clothing and furniture/appliances (refer: household survey). The household shopping survey confirmed a strong association between District residents and Hamilton retail businesses for a wide range of retail activities (the only exception was in the Northern Sector, where an Auckland influence was stronger reflecting closer travel distances). The dispersed nature of the District population across a large rural area, but relative concentration of the rural population in those sectors immediately nearby to the Hamilton City fringe (eg. 58% of the District population being within about a minute drive of the City), will continue the current shopping patterns with little change expected in terms of practical demand/ justification supporting more locally based retailing. Areas where strongest future population growth are expected continue this same pattern. MAPS 3+4, following, illustrate the dominant shopping patterns across Waikato District for everyday goods destinations and for primary shopping mall destinations. The potential to expand the range of retail businesses found locally around the District, especially the introduction of large-format retail and nationally-branded specialty shops, can only occur where there is an adequate sized population catchment and spending base. At a District-wide level, gross population numbers might offer some potential, but a closer look at the distribution of this population across a large area vs. the availability of alternative shopping options in Hamilton (or Auckland for northern-sector residents) quickly reduces the market potential well below any acceptable commercial standards. Hence, the likely future scenario for retail centres around Waikato District looks to be a continuation in their current vein of local convenience centres for everyday goods and services. The nature of the District s population distribution with 58% living in close proximity to the City, and as a consequence the lack of sufficient population size elsewhere to support any significant retailing beyond everyday goods, plus high levels of District residents commuting into the City for work, all mitigate against the practical needs for any significant additions in retail space. However, there are likely to be small-scale changes, including some changes in actual businesses and in development of some new premises. A greater challenge around Waikato centres is the progressive development of town centre/community centre development plans that can encourage better integration as and when new development arises. Council s expectations to encourage some tourist centres around the District are outside usual retailing which is the focus of this study and will require project specific assessments. MAP 5, following, identifies the distribution of key retail centres found around Waikato District.

54 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 54 of 185 MAP 3 Everyday Goods Destinations Auckland 6% d Waikato 45% Hamilton 45% Waipa 2% Unknown 1% Other 1% WAIKATO DISTRICT Everyday Shopping Destinations (Household Shopping Survey, Question 16)

55 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 55 of 185 MAP 4 Primary Shopping Mall Destinations Auckland 4% Waikato 6% Hamilton 77% Waipa 2% Unknown 2% Other 9% WAIKATO DISTRICT Primary Large Mall Shopping Destination (Household Shopping Survey, Question 25)

56 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 56 of 185 MAP 5 Retail Network Around Waikato District

57 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 57 of 185 (c) Waipa District Waipa District sits entirely to the south of Hamilton City. The District has an east-west orientation to it, positioned between Hamilton City to the north, parts of Waikato District to the west, Otorohanga District to the south, and Matamata-Piako District to the east. The area can be described as predominantly rural with two large towns and a few small community centres. Te Awamutu township is located in the western half of the District, and Cambridge township in the eastern half, divided by the Waikato River. Both towns are of similar size, around 13,000 people each within the township areas. This means that 60% of the District population is found in these two towns, with the remaining 40% dispersed across rural areas. The overall District population is 43,700 as at Growth of +3,530 people occurred between ; notably, 30% of the growth occurred in the Te Awamutu half and 55% of the growth occurred in the Cambridge half, with 15% growth occurring in the North Rural Sector around Hamilton City s southern boundary. The District s population distribution can be broadly allocated as follows: Population Growth western side North Rural eg. Ohaupo, Ngahinapouri, Te Pahu = 4, (broadly, the southern fringes of Hamilton City) Te Awamutu urban area, including Kihikihi = 12, Te Awamutu rural eg. Pirongia,TeRore,LakeNgaroto 3, Southern Rural Sector eg. Pokura,Tokanui,Rotoorangi 3, ,545 +1,698 = 48% eastern side Cambridge urban area, including Leemington = 13, Cambridge rural eg. Hautapu, Karapiro = 5, ,155 +1,836 = 52% TOTAL = 43,700 +3,534 The nature of retailing in the two townships is a mixture of convenience shopping with some specialty and large-format shopping. Both town centres have two existing supermarkets; they also have Warehouse stores which tend to fill the role of supermarket for general merchandise items. In addition, there is a limited range of large-format stores : -- such as in Te Awamutu : Postie Plus fashions and Arbuckles home linens, Bunnings and Mitre 10 Solutions and Resene and Carpet Court in the DIY sector, and Repco Auto; -- there are also some branded fast-food outlets like McD, KFC, and Subway; -- and in Cambridge : Briscoes, Selectrix and Retravision appliances, Carpet Court and Bunnings in the DIY sector, -- and some branded fast-food outlets like KFC and Subway. As an alternative source for shopping, Hamilton City is the nearest option, approximately a minute drive from either town centre.

58 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 58 of 185 Outside of the two large townships, there are only two small community centres, where existing retailing is very limited and has a very high emphasise on everyday convenience activities eg. in Pirongia and Ohaupo community centres, the shopping options include the likes of a petrol station, dairy, tavern, and café type businesses. Shopping Patterns The household shopping survey undertaken during October 2007 identified the dominant shopping patterns across the District : - between 70-80% make use of local shops for activities like supermarket, everyday shops, banking medical/dental, petrol, and hardware/building - while 20-30% only make use of local shops for more specialist activities like clothing / shoes, furniture / appliances, car purchases - where shopping is done outside of local centres, then Hamilton is the dominant alternative choice, and in particular the CBD is the preferred main centre : CBD, 33% The Base, 12% Chartwell, 10% other local centres, 40% It was also notable that across the District, there was some variation in the pattern of usage of Hamilton shopping centres: Eg. the Northern Rural Sector (being that area closest to Hamilton, including Ohaupo, TePahu, Lake Cameron, Ngahinapouri) had a much higher propensity to use Hamilton based retailers on a regular basis : - 30%-40% using Hamilton CBD businesses for supermarket everyday goods, banking, medical, hardware - plus 20% using local City suburban centres like Glenview and Dinsdale - leaving 20% - 30% using local businesses, mainly TeAwamutu... and with %-50% using Hamilton CBD for specialist items like clothing, shoes, furniture, appliances - plus 20% using Te Rapa outlets Eg. while residents in and around the two townships tended to have a strong shopping relationship with local shops for many activities, such as at Cambridge : - 80% - 90% using local shops for supermarket, everyday goods, banking, medical/dental, hardware, petrol - and 50% using Hamilton CBD for specialist items like clothing/shoes, furniture/appliances, and car purchases A shopping pattern emphasising use of City shops, especially the CBD, by Northern Sector rural residents is to be expected : it reflects the lack of local retailing except a few shops, plus the influence of convenience in terms of shortest travel times/distances being into the City rather than elsewhere, plus the influence of a citybound workforce (40% of Northern Sector working adults find employment in the city).

59 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 59 of 185 On the other hand, residents in the townships make a high level of use of local shops for many retail activities, with a demand on Hamilton businesses arising primarily in the specialist areas like clothing/shoes, furniture/appliances, and car purchases. Large-Format Retailers As noted above, the two town centres have a limited range of larger retailers eg. supermarket, department store, hardware, and some home improvement stores like Mitre 10 and Bunnings and Carpet Court, and appliance outlet like Retravision. The absence of more large-format retailers found locally, for example, is not necessarily a statement about lack of shopping interest or support from local residents but rather a reflection of business economics large retailers require large population catchments and spending capacities to support large sales at such stores. The same applies to specialty shops offering a finely focused range of goods, thus requiring a large population catchment to attract sufficient sales to support such specialty items. However, it is noteworthy that in both town centres there are a least 10 clothing /shoes shops such that this specialty sector is not a total void. Specifically in and around Waipa District, at a district-wide level the gross population looks to offer some potential for large retailers, but a closer look at the distribution of this population across the District vs. the availability of alternative shopping options in Hamilton reduces the business potential. For example: The northern rural sector falls strongly within the influence of Hamilton businesses on a daily basis. Cross-shopping between Cambridge and Te Awamutu townships does not appear to be strong; there was little evidence of this in the household survey results. Travel between Cambridge and Te Awamutu is approximately a 25 minute drive, compared to travel times from Cambridge to Hamilton or Te Awamutu to Hamilton being a similar travel time. With Hamilton being a significantly larger market and also being a similar travel time from either township, there is no commercial benefit to large retailers establishing in either Cambridge or Te Awamutu in the expectation of achieving strong sales across both markets. Hence, today Waipa District has three distinct catchments the northern rural catchment making frequent use of Hamilton businesses for many retail activities; the Cambridge catchment being relatively independent from other market influences in everyday retail activities but relying on Hamilton for specialist retail activities; and similarly the Te Awamutu catchment being relatively independent from other market influences in everyday retail activities but relying on Hamilton for specialist retail activities. Another issue influencing the presence of large-format retailers is whether there is adequate land available for such development, if a business can be economically justified. Waipa District has already been through a review of its retail needs (Waipa Urban Growth Strategy, Commercial Land, June 2006) and identified that there was a need for additional land particularly suitable to large-format retail businesses in both Te Awamutu and Cambridge townships. Around +14,000m2GFA was identified for Te Awamutu, and +10,000m2GFA in Cambridge.

60 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 60 of 185 Where to provide such land has been problematic in Cambridge and is still being worked through, but in Te Awamutu a fringe town-centre site is in the midst of a zoning change to accommodate such businesses. The Te Awamutu site is about 6ha in size, and is proposed to include around 10,000m2GFA including a large Pak n Save supermarket of 6,000m2 and around 10 other businesses. Future Demand Future population growth expectations suggest a 50/50 split between the east (Cambridge area) vs. the west (Te Awamutu area). However, in the case of Cambridge all growth in the township and local rural sector will predominantly support the Cambridge town centre as the closest retail centre. While on the Te Awamutu side, there are two distinct catchments : the Northern Rural Sector worth 14% of growth primarily supporting the Hamilton CBD and other city retailers, and the remaining Te Awamutu influence worth 37% of growth. Essentially, expected future growth continues to emphasise the importance of the two town centres and their function as dominant commercial centres for their respective catchments. This will result in some demand for new retail shopspace in both town centres, as is already anticipated by the Waipa District Urban Growth Strategy. Making available the additional retail land planned for in Te Awamutu and Cambridge will continue to support the function of these town centres as important retail and business focal points. However, the ultimate scale of development of new retail businesses will be influenced by the limits on the overall catchment size, future growth expectations, and the broad range of alternative shopping options in Hamilton about ½ hr drive away these key factors will continue to determine the economic viability of any new businesses in and around the District. Hence, the dominant shopping pattern that exists today can be expected to continue, which shows strong use of the two town centres for convenience shopping (supermarkets, department stores, and a range of other businesses with a local focus), but otherwise a high level of customer support from across the District for using Hamilton for a wider range of specialist shopping needs. The exception might be the addition of a new local retail centre around the Airport, which has unique business development features as well as a localised residential support base. This project is specifically discussed below. Against this broad background, the existing retail network consists of the following. (i) Cambridge Cambridge township is positioned some 25kms southeast of Hamilton City, along State Hwy 1. Depending on traffic conditions, this is a minute drive between Cambridge and Hamilton. It is a similar travel distance between Cambridge and Te Awamutu townships. The Cambridge urban population base comprises some 13,000 people about 30% of the District s total population base. In addition is a nearby surrounding rural catchment of 5,900 people which accounts for another 12½%. In total, the township and local rural area accounts for 42½% of the District population (somewhat larger than the Te Awamutu catchment at 37% of the District s population).

61 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 61 of 185 In terms of new population growth, the Cambridge catchment accounted for just over half (52%) of the District s new growth between : +1,836 / +10.5% growth. (For comparison, the Te Awamutu catchment growth experience was worth 34% of total District growth during the same period; the Northern Rural Sector was 14%.) So, in terms of a trade catchment population, Cambridge is the largest market and has the largest growth factor anywhere in the District. The retail base to Cambridge has been assessed at a similar size to Te Awamutu town centre, at around 15,000m2 GFA (Waipa District background report on retailing, July 2005, prepared by Marketplace NZ Ltd). This report also noted the significant change which has occurred in recent years regarding the local retail offer growing by about +60% between 1998 to The majority of this new floorspace was noted as occurring in large-format retail businesses : eg. an expanded Countdown supermarket, new Warehouse and Briscoes stores, and a few others. Overall, the assessment identified that around 75% of all retail space is large-format in type (vs. 65% in Te Awamutu). Shopping Patterns The household shopping survey confirmed a very high level of shopper usage of local shops for many retail activities like supermarket, and everyday goods and services, banking, medical/dental, hardware, petrol. - place of employment= 46% Waipa; 25% Hamilton - supermarket = 96% local - everyday goods = 98% local - furniture/appliances = 45% local; 50% CBD - banking = 91% local - clothing / shoes = 41% local; 50% CBD - medical /dental = 83% local - hardware/building = 83% local - petrol = 91% local - car purchase = 20% local; 51% CBD The only areas of low usage were for specialty shopping such as clothing/ fashion, furniture/ appliances, and car purchases, but even here around 40% said they used local shops. These survey results suggest a high level of shopping being satisfied by local Cambridge shops, with Hamilton businesses being of significance in only selected retail areas. The survey also identified that 25% of residents in Cambridge actually work in Hamilton, whereas : - 40% did so in the Northern Rural Sector - 35% did so across Waikato District, but varying between 50%+ in areas closest to the City, down to just 4% in the Northern Sector closer to Auckland.

62 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 62 of 185 A further noteworthy distinction about results from the household survey relates to an above-average negative response to the question : Do you think more shops are needed near your home? The results show some strong local feelings on the question of providing additional shopping. Agree Disagree Neutral Cambridge 29% 55% 16% Waipa District 17% 48% 35% Waikato District 37% 36% 27% Hamilton City 28% 37% 35% In overview having regard to these market features, the Cambridge retail base can be characterised as being quite strong in many retail shopping sectors, but only average in areas of specialty goods with the Hamilton retail business base providing an important alternative source for specialty goods. The provision of additional floorspace around 10,000m2GFA, somewhere around the town centre as envisaged by Council, will help enable new development of specialist and large-format retailing, but the scale of this development will continue to be influence by wider issues about overall market size and economic viability of such businesses vs. alternative shopping areas like the several Hamilton City options. (ii) Te Awamutu Te Awamutu township is located some 30kms south of the Hamilton city centre. In the perspective of Waipa District, Te Awamutu is located in the western half, separated from the Cambridge catchment in the east by significant geographic features like the Moanatuatua Swamp which has minimised the development of any significant population base in the rural hinterland between the two townships. The Te Awamutu urban population base comprises some 13,000 people about 30% of the District s total population base, plus a nearby surrounding rural catchment of some 3,300 people which accounts for another 7½% = in total, 37½% of the District s population. (By comparison, the Cambridge catchment is slightly larger : 13,000 people in town, plus 5,900 people in the nearby rural catchment, in total comprising 42½ % of the District s population base.) In terms of new population growth, the Te Awamutu catchment accounted for about 33% of the District s new growth between : +1,167 / +7.7% growth. (For comparison, the Cambridge catchment experienced growth of +1,836 / +10.6% during the same period.) So, in terms of a trade catchment population, Te Awamutu is slightly smaller and growing somewhat slower than the Cambridge area, but still serves a significant 40% of the District s population. The retail base in Te Awamutu has been assessed at around 15,300m2 GFA (Waipa District background report on retailing, July 2005, prepared by Marketplace NZ Ltd). The same report also identified that around 8,000m2 GFA was large-format in terms of 2 x supermarkets, a Warehouse store, and 1 x household goods store (Carpetcourt); plus 2,000m2 GFA in smaller large-format stores represented by Postie Plus fashion, Arbuckles home linen, Paper Plus and Whitcoulls. Which means that roughly 2/3rds of the retail shopspace is used by large-format retail businesses.

63 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 63 of 185 Unfortunately, the household shopping survey did not pick up a useful sample base covering the Te Awamutu area for some reason only 4 interviews. Hence, these results are not particularly helpful in confirming existing shopping patterns. Given that the Te Awamutu catchment is of similar size to Cambridge, and also that the overall retail m2gfa is of similar size with a similar range of stores and specific store-types, we have made the assumption that Te Awamutu residents are likely to display similar shopping patterns to that found in the Cambridge sector. Accordingly, we are expecting the Te Awamutu retail base to be characterised by strong resident support in everyday convenience shopping sectors, and average support in other specialty goods, with the Hamilton retail base providing an important alternative source for specialty goods. To help meet anticipated future demand, Council has already taken steps through its Urban Growth Strategy to plan for around +14,000m2GFA of new retail space, mostly for large-format activities. Currently a zone change on the town centre fringe is under consideration that will provide around 10,000m2 including a new Pak nsave supermarket. (iii) Other Community Centres There are just two small community centres around the District. Ohaupo This is a small community centre of around 430 people, plus some influence from a wider nearby rural population. Local retail facilities include a superette and takeaways, café, arts/crafts/ gifts, antiques, butcher and bar,restaurant. Ohaupo is located approximately midway between Te Awamutu and Hamilton, so either are alternative shopping options. However, the household shopping survey clearly showed a strong preferred for travel into Hamilton for all types of shopping. Looking forward, future population growth projections suggest potential for +300 people over the next 20 years. This is a significant change to the local Ohaupo population base, a 70% increase, but in absolute numbers the change is small and will have little influence on future retail demand. Pirongia This community centre is located 11kms west of Te Awamutu. The community centre plus nearby rural sector comprises around 1370 residents. Local retail activities are limited : petrol station with convenience store, tavern, 2 x cafes, arts/crafts plus historic village, Alexandra Hotel, and community hall. For regular shopping needs, Pirongia has a strong association with Te Awamutu, being the closest retail centre. Looking forward, future population growth projections suggest potential for +300 people over the next 20 years in this area also. This is about a 25% increase on the existing local Pirongia population base, but in absolute numbers the change is small and will have little influence on future retail demand.

64 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 64 of 185 (iv) Northern Rural Sector This area could also be referred to as the Hamilton City southern fringe, with City shops and services generally being a closer destination compared to retail businesses in either Te Awamutu or Cambridge townships. The broad division falls around Ohaupo community, which is roughly halfway between Hamilton and Te Awamutu. Currently the population base in this area is 4,765 people, with growth of +432 over the 5 year-period The population base is virtually all rural; there are no significant community centres excepting Ohaupo. Thus, no matter what type of shopping is required by these residents, a trip of up to around minutes driving time is required. Shopping Patterns The household shopping survey included residents in the Northern Rural Sector. The results identified that Hamilton is the preferred shopping option for all types of goods, primarily the CBD or local suburban centres at Glenview or Dinsdale for everyday goods; and secondarily Te Awamutu is a preferred shopping destination but only for everyday goods. - place of employment= 40% Hamilton; 40% Waipa; - supermarket = 36% CBD; 28% other Ham; 20% Camb;12% TA - everyday goods = 36% CBD; 16% other Ham; 28% TA - furniture/appliances = 40% CBD; 20% TeRapa - banking = 36% CBD; 32% TA - clothing / shoes = 52% CBD; 20% TeRapa - medical /dental = 48% CBD; 20% TA - hardware/building = 40% TA; 20% CBD; 16% TeRapa - petrol = 28% CBD; 16% other Ham; 20% TA - car purchase = 32% CBD; 20% TeRapa - large retail stores = 28% CBD; 36% TeRapa; 24% TA Future Demand Looking forward, reasonably strong growth is expected : +2,185 over the next 20 years; this is an increase of +45% over current levels, ultimately lifting the population base to around 7,000 people. This is a reasonably sized population, and respecting this the Council has had an interest in providing some form of local retail centre. The opportunity to provide such a centre emerged in the recent proposal to expand business activities at the Regional Airport through a comprehensive plan change involving expansion to the business/industrial land base, and expansion to the airport terminal and passenger facilities. Part of the Airport comprehensive plan included provision for a small retail centre up to 4,800m2GFA including a small supermarket up to 1,000m2GFA, with the intention that this centre would help meet local convenience shopping needs for nearby residents in the Northern Sector as well as some shopping needs by airport passengers and by workers in the new business centre.

65 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 65 of 185 (v) Overall Retail Hierarchy Respecting the above findings about the nature of existing retail centres found around the District, broadly the Waipa District can be divided into three catchments : (i) Te Awamutu catchment for the western-half of the District; (ii) Cambridge catchment for the eastern-half of the District; (iii) and the Northern Rural Sector located between Te Awamutu and the southern fringe of Hamilton City and which largely falls under the influence of Hamilton for most retail activities. However, the population distribution is not equal between these catchments: -- Cambridge is largest, worth 49% of the District s population base; -- Te Awamutu is also large, worth 37% of the District s population base; -- the Northern Rural Sector is smallest, worth 14% of the population base. Both Cambridge and Te Awamutu retail floorspace are of a similar size, around 15,000m2 GFA, including supermarkets, department stores, and a range of usually everyday goods including some branded fast-foods outlets. The household shopping survey found that : (i) In the Cambridge catchment - - there is a high level of local shopping for everyday goods and services like supermarkets, department stores, and various convenience goods, medical/dental, banking, hardware, and petrol; - but there is only moderate local shopping for specialist goods like clothing/shoes, furniture/appliances, and car purchases; for these items, Hamilton is an important alternative. (ii) In the Te Awamutu catchment, survey coverage was not that good. Given strong similarities with Cambridge in terms of types and scale of retail, we have made some assumptions the Te Awamutu market based on the Cambridge findings. (iii) In the Northern Rural catchment - there is a stronger association with Hamilton businesses for all types of retail activities. The Survey also found that daily commuting into Hamilton for work is an influence on shopping patterns: -- 30% of the District s resident workforce find employment in the City; -- the household shopping survey noted that around 50% of workers undertake some shopping at least weekly while on a work-related trip. Waipa District Council has recently completed its own strategy for commercial land which identified the need for approximately 10,000m2GFA of new retail space in both Te Awamutu and Cambridge areas. A zone change is under consideration for a specific site in Te Awamutu; suitable land is still being investigated in Cambridge.

66 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 66 of 185 Beyond these planned additions in the two town centres, the potential to expand the range of retail businesses locally around the District, especially the introduction of more large-format or specialist retail, can only occur where there is an adequate sized population catchment and spending base. At a District-wide level, gross population numbers initially suggest some potential may exist for more major retailers, but a closer look at the distribution of this population shows the District to be fragmented into three distinct catchments with limited cross-shopping between them. Additionally, the availability of numerous alternative shopping options in Hamilton all accessible within a travel time that is no less convenient than travelling between the two town centres of Cambridge and Te Awamutu, and also the high level of a daily workforce flowing into Hamilton (between 25% and 40%), are features that further reduce the market potential for setting up large-format and specialist retail businesses. Projected new population growth around the District is expected to continue emphasising the two townships and also the Northern Rural Sector. This growth pattern will reinforce the strategic positions of Cambridge and Te Awamutu town centres, including some demand for retail expansion as intended to be provided for by Council s urban growth strategy. Additionally, growth in the Northern Sector will most likely continue to support shopper flows predominantly into Hamilton, excepting that local growth will lend support to a new local convenience centre proposed at the Airport. Hence, the likely future scenario for retail centres around Waipa District looks to be a continuation in its current vein of two significant town centres providing a wide range of goods and services, with provision for some expansion as required, and backed up by Hamilton City businesses particularly in specialist areas. Also, in the Northern Rural Sector, many shopping patterns are expected to continue making strong use of City businesses in all areas of retail, but in addition a new local convenience retail centre as proposed at the Airport will fill a void in the District s retail centre network. Following is MAP 6 identifying the distribution of the key retail centres found around Waipa District.

67 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 67 of 185 MAP 6 Retail Network Around Waipa District

68 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 68 of 185 (d) Morrinsville Area The Morrinsville Study Area includes Morrinsville township and the immediately surrounding rural area generally referred to as the Tahuroa area. Morrinsville township is positioned some 30kms east of the Hamilton City CBD; it is also east of the Waikato District rural sector which falls between the City and Morrinsville (eg. Eureka-Gordonton areas). The distance between Morrinsville and the City CBD is similar to distances between the City and other main townships in the study area eg. Te Awamutu (30kms), Cambridge (24kms), Huntly (33kms). Morrinsville is located within Matamata-Piako District which generally falls to the east of Hamilton City, Waikato and Waipa Districts. Matamata-Piako Distirct includes two main townships, Morrinsville and Matamata, which are both of similar size in population at around 6,500 people each. Broadly, Morrinsville is the main business centre for the northern half of the District, while Matamata is the main focus for the southern half. Noteworthy, however, is that Morrinsville has a larger population base in its catchment some 20,000 District residents are closer to Morrinsville vs. around 10,000 residents are closer to Matamata. This is significant to considerations about retail demand. The existing population in the Morrinsville study area is 9,300 people split 6,700 in the township, 2,600 in the immediately surrounding rural area. Growth of +435 people occurred between ; notably, 95% of this occurred in the township. As a proportion of the larger Matamata-Piako District population, the Morrinsville study area represents 30% of all District residents. But as noted, Morrinsville retail businesses have a wider influence beyond the study area alone, spanning around 66% of the District population. Population growth is not a significant feature about Morrinsville or the wider Matamata-Piako District. Between , growth across the District was worth / +3.4%. This growth can be allocated : +435 / 4.7% in Morrisnville study area +185 / 3.0% in Matamata area +380 / elsewhere in the district. In other words, over 40% of the District-wide growth occurred in Morrinsville. Looking forward, future growth is anticipated to be at a limited scale. Looking out 20 years, to 2026, growth projections suggest : very little change to the overall District population base +500 in Morrinsville township static to slight decline in nearby Morrinsville rural sector +170 in the Matamata area So, contrary to strong growth expected in Hamilton, Waikato and Waip District, growth in Morrinsville Area will be modest.

69 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 69 of 185 Morrinsville town centre is the only commercial centre in the Morrinsville study area. We have tried to estimate the GFA size of this retail centre because there are no accurate records. In terms of zoning, there is no differentiation between commercial and light industrial activities (however, there is a separate industrial zone). Rather, there is just one business zone which applies to the town centre and adjacent light industrial land. The total land area of the business zone is 59ha, the majority of which is used for non-retail/non-commercial activities. To try to estimate the amount of land used for retail, we have given regard to comparable situations, like in Cambridge and Te Awamutu town centres, which have specified and measurable town centre zones ; here, the land area in each town centre zone is almost identical at 12.8ha. There have also been retail floorspace assessments for each of these town centres, and around 15,000m2GFA has been identified in each. As a gross average, the retail GFA (15,000m2) represents about 12% of the town centre land area (12.8ha), which does not seem unreasonable considering : that there are other non-retail activities in the same town centre zone, like churches, council offices, other business offices, and some vehicle servicing/petrol; that if a typical low-density development ratio was applied to the entire land area, say around 25% building cover to land area, then the total likely building space in the town centre zones would be around 30,000m2 of which, we know around 15,000m2 is retail. So, in these examples, retail is consuming about half of the developed floorspace in the town centres, which also looks to be a reasonable finding. In both town centres, there are two supermarkets and a Warehouse as the largest retailers. Total GFA for these stores is between 8,000 and 9,000m2 in each centre, representing between 50% to 60% of the total retail GFA found in each town centre. Applying these guidelines to Morrinsville retailing, we know that the three largest retailers in town are the two supermarkets and The Warehouse; the total GFA of these activities is around 6,000m2 GFA. If, as in Cambridge and Te Awamutu, this floorspace represents around 50% - 60% of total retail, then the GFA in Morrinsville town centre is around 10-12,000m2 GFA. Given that the Morrinsville trade catchment has a smaller population base than either Cambridge or Te Awamutu, it is reasonable to assume that the m2 GFA in Morrinsville should be smaller, and for the purpose of this project we have used 12,000m2 GFA The nature of the business base found around Morrinsville town centre includes retail and services in the core town centre, and mostly industrial activities at the fringe including a large Fonterra milk treatment plant. The core town centre can be generally defined as a 5-block area stretching along both sides of Thames Street, and extending one-block either side. Specifically, the core area runs between the Thames Street / Allen Street round-a-bout at the west end of the town centre, along Thames Street which is the heart of the town centre, to around Park Street at the east end. This area is shown on the following Map 7.

70 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 70 of 185 MAP 7 - Morrinsville Town Centre core According to a business activity inventory completed during September 2008, within the core town centre are some 163 business activities, comprised of : - 95 retail - 55 services - 4 motor vehicle sales+service/petrol - 9 government/cultural+recreation/churches+halls The nature of retailing in Morrinsville town centre is a mixture of convenience shopping with some specialty shopping. In terms of major retail operators, there are two supermarkets, and there is a Warehouse store which tends to fill the role of a supermarket for general merchandise. In addition, there is a limited range of other large-format retail stores : Mitre 10 and Placemakers in the DIY sector; Heathcote and RetraVision in the appliances sector. The small-shop sector includes a usual range of convenience activities like fresh foods, liquor, takeaways/cafes, chemists, books/stationery, gifts/general goods, and personal services. There is also a range of specialty shops in terms of clothing/shoes (11 stores), homewares, and furnishings and décor. Unique to smaller town centres servicing a strong agricultural base, in Morrinsville there are 3 x rural supply companies which provide a range of retail goods : Farmlands, RD1, and Wrightsons.

71 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 71 of 185 A household shopping survey was undertaken during September 2008 covering the Morrinsville Area. This research identified the dominant shopping patterns as follows : (note that full details from the survey are set out in Part B of this report) a high level of usage of local businesses for many activities, eg. 83% supermarkets 90% everyday goods and services 92% medical / dental 81% hardware / building supplies 92% petrol but with a high level of shopping elsewhere for specialist goods, like : 60% furniture / appliances (40% local) 54% clothing / shoes (46% local) and with Hamilton being the dominant source for specialist goods. This shopping pattern has similarities with the shopping survey results found at Cambridge and Te Awamutu townships high levels of local shop usage for many activities excepting specialist goods; whereas, the survey results for Ngaruawahia and Huntly show generally high levels of shopping undertaken in Hamilton across most retail categories. A customer distribution survey was also undertaken during September 2008 to help identify where customer come from to use Morrinsville retailers. A vehicle license survey was used; data was collected on Saturday, 20 September 2008, from the carpark of the Countdown Supermarket Mitre 10 Amcal chemist, and also from across the street in The Warehouse Liquor King United Video carpark. The results confirmed that the northern half of Matamata-Piako District is, in fact, the Morrinsville trade catchment. Key results show: 55% = Morrinsville township 15% = Tahuroa / local rural 70% + 20% = relatively nearby areas of northern Matamata-Piako District + eg. Waihoe, Walton, Springdale, Waitoa, TeAroha 10% = misc. 100% The distribution of where people work has some bearing on shopping patterns. Data from the 2006 census relating to area of usual residence by workplace address show: - 69% work in Morrinsville study area - 8½% work in Hamilton - 3½% work in Waikato District - 2½% work in Waipa District 83 ½% work in the Regional Study Area and - 14% work elsewhere within Matamata-Piako District - 2½% work elsewhere in NZ

72 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 72 of 185 These results are very similar to the findings from the shopping survey which asked a question about where the main household income earner actually worked: 69% Morrinsville area 10% Hamilton City 2% Waikato District 2% Waipa District 17% Other In other words, Morrinsville area residents have a high level of local employment, with a distinct minority working elsewhere around the Regional Study Area. Overall, the key market features about the Morrinsville Area indicate: Similar travel distance from Morrinsville to Hamilton City as compared to other main townships in the Regional Study Area like Cambridge, Te Awamutu and Huntly. Morrinsville is the main business centre for the northern half of Matamata-Paiko District, and this effectively includes 2/3rds of the District population about 20,000 people this trade catchment was confirmed by a customer distribution survey showing 90% of shoppers in Morrinsville are from the northern half of the District. Future population growth is not expected to be a significant feature. The core town centre is comprised of some 163 business activities, broadly 60% retail including : 2 x supermarkets (CD+NW), 1 x Warehouse, 2 x DIY outlets (Mitre10+Placemakers), 2 x appliances (Heathcote and RetraVision), and 3 x farm supply retailers (Farmlands, RD1, Wrightsons) represent the largest stores in town. There is a high level of customer usage of local businesses for many types of retail but specialist goods are sourced elsewhere, predominantly in Hamilton, for activities like furniture/appliances and clothing/shoes and this shopping pattern has similarities to results for Cambridge and Te Awamutu townships. There are no notable retail centres in the Morrinsville study area outside of Morrinsville town centre, which makes sense given the population concentration and distribution in surrounding rural areas. Employment patterns (where people work) take only a minority of residents to areas outside the Morrinsville study area, which minimises the influence of misc. retail spending occurring outside the local area. Following is MAP 8 identifying the distribution of key retail centres around Morrinsville.

73 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 73 of 185 MAP 8 -- Retail Network Around Morrinsville Area

74 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 74 of Existing Shopping Patterns Two specific research projects were undertaken to help identify where residents were currently undertaking shopping, and for what. Firstly, a detailed household shopping survey was administered across the Region. The primary purpose of this work was to identify where residents usually went to undertake their shopping having regard to a broad range of retail activities. Secondly, a customer distribution survey was undertaken at the three largest shopping centres in Hamilton and the Region, being the City CBD, The Base, and Chartwell. The primary purpose of this work was to identify where customers come from to make use of each of these centres, and also identify the importance of various customer source areas to the business base supporting these centres. Key findings from these research exercises can be highlighted as follows. (i) Household Shopping Survey A comprehensive household shopping survey was administered across the Study Region. The survey was undertaken by telephone interviews during November 2007 for the Morrinsville study area, the survey work was undertaken during September Full explanatory notes about the research methodology, a copy of the questionnaire, and detailed results are set out in Part B of this report (compiled in a separate folder). In total, 945 interviews were completed, generally distributed : around Hamilton City, around Waikato District,and around Waipa District around Morrinsville Area Apportionment of surveys was generally based on population distribution amongst the three territorial authorities eg. about 60% in Hamilton City, and 20% each in both Waikato and Waipa Districts. However, additional survey work was undertaken in Waikato District at their request to provide a fuller picture on retailing around this district to help assist with future planning in local areas. And, the Morrinsville Area was added later as a specifically targeted study area. The survey investigated these key issues : where people shop for what how often Region-wide Results At the broad regional level, the three main retail centres are Hamilton CBD, The Base / Te Rapa area, and Chartwell. But the level of usage at these three centres vs. other more local centres varies considerably depending on the type of retail goods required. Table A, following, identifies usual shopping destinations by key categories of goods.

75 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 75 of 185 TABLE A WAIKATO REGION USUAL SHOPPING DESTINATION BY STORETYPE NOTE : Data included in this table comes from the Waikato Region Retail Study Household Shopping survey, November 2007 and September Detailed results are available in Part B of this report, a separate document. Notable results include : the three main centres of CBD, The Base, Chartwell usually account for well over half of all shopping trips for a wide range of goods, particularly... furniture / appliances... clothing / shoes... hardware / building... car purchases... and these three centres are clearly identified as the primary and secondary main shopping centres used on a regular basis while supermarket shopping and banking is about 50/50 between these main centres vs. other local centres... with the CBD by far the most important destination given the presence of 5 x major supermarkets here plus numerous banks and local centres are far more important for activities like... everyday goods and services... medical / dental services... petrol... and around 50/50 for supermarkets and banking.

76 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 76 of 185 Sub-Regional Results At the sub-regional level, results understandably vary for local reasons. Many details are referred to in Section 1 above describing existing shopping patterns, but some broad results are worth re-stating: Eg. in Waikato District, there is a distinct low level of usage of local businesses in all shop categories. This is due to several reasons, including: in the northern sector of Waikato District (generally north of Te Kauwhata), there is a much stronger Auckland influence, whereas elsewhere the Auckland influence is quite insignificant; this is a function of travel distance and time vs. alternative shopping options eg. Auckland is used 36% for supermarkets, 30% for everyday goods, 43% for furniture/appliances, 39% for banking; 40% for clothing, etc. while in the central sector of Waikato District covering Huntly and Ngaruawahia, use of the local town centres for supermarkets, everyday goods and services, banks, medical/dental, and petrol are relatively high, but use of Hamilton businesses also for these shopping needs is relatively high likely a reflection of the high level of worker commuting into Hamilton for employment. For other more specialist retail activities like, furniture/appliances, clothing/shoes, and car purchases, local shopping is very low while the use of Hamilton businesses is high. and in the southeast sector (Gordonton, Eureka, Matangi, Tamahere) and also in the southwest sector (Te Kowhia, Whatawhata, Western Hills) there is a very strong reliance on Hamilton retailers for all types of goods and services; this is a function of travel distance and time vs. alternative shopping options these sectors have only very local retail shops, no significant town centre, and Hamilton City is closer than any other shopping venue. Eg. in Waipa District, there is a relatively high level of usage of local businesses, particularly in areas like supermarket, everyday goods and services, banking, medical/dental, hardware/building, and petrol. The town centres of Cambridge and Te Awamutu offer a good range in all these core activities, and given that the District s population is broadly split 1/3 rd Cambridge township - 1/3 rd Te Awamutu township - 1/3 rd rural, most residents have relatively close access to such goods and services eg. around Cambridge, 80-90% usually shop locally for everything except furniture/ appliances, clothing/shoes, and car purchases. The Hamilton CBD in particular is the preferred shopping destination for items not readily available locally, like furniture/appliances, clothing/shoes, and car purchases; and the CBD is an important secondary destination for all shoptypes. A notable variation in shopping patterns occur in the north rural sector (broadly between the City and Te Awamutu), where Hamilton destinations (especially the CBD) are rated highly for all shop-types, with Te Awamutu town centre an important secondary shopping destination.

77 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 77 of 185 The following tables identify in more detail the usual shopping patterns of residents in Waikato and Waipa Districts. TABLE B WAIKATO DISTRICT USUAL SHOPPING DESTINATION BY STORETYPE TABLE C WAIPA DISTRICT USUAL SHOPPING DESTINATION BY STORETYPE NOTE : Data included in these tables comes from the Waikato Region Retail Study Household Shopping survey, November More detailed results are available in Part B of this report, a separate document.

78 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 78 of 185 Eg. in the Morrinsville Area, there is quite a high level of usage of local businesses spanning many usual local activities like supermarket, everyday goods and services, banking, medical/dental, hardware/building supplies, and petrol. On the other hand, specialist items are usually sourced elsewhere, mostly in Hamilton, including furniture/appliances, clothing/shoes, car purchases, and primary main shopping centre. TABLE D MORRINSVILLE AREA USUAL SHOPPING DESTINATION BY STORETYPE

79 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 79 of 185 Eg. Around different sectors of Hamilton City, the usage of the largest retail centres (CBD, The Base, Chartwell) is widespread, although there is a notable bias for residents to prefer the centre closest to home. Survey results can be divided into five sub-sectors around the City, with key results as follows: (i) Northeast eg. Chartwell, Rototuna -- residents make most frequent use of... - for supermarkets : Thomas Road 36%, and Chartwell13%, also CBD 33% - for everyday goods & services : Thomas Rd 33%, Chartwell 36%, Flagstaff 15% (eg. definitely local shopping centres) - for furniture & appliances : Te Rapa 46%, the CBD 29%, and Frankton 6% - for banking : Chartwell 64%, CBD19% - for clothing & shoes : Chartwell 53%, CBD 24%, Te Rapa 17% - for medical & dental : CBD 20%, Chartwell 19%, and many other local centres - for hardware & building : Te Rapa 77%, and CBD 8% - for petrol & diesel : Thomas Rd 35%, Chartwell 14%, Te Rapa 16%, CBD 15% - for car purchases : broadly consist results from all sectors at 30% Te Rapa area, 30% CBD, 8% Frankton, and the rest Misc. - for large retail stores : Te Rapa 85%, CBD 11% - for the primary main shopping centre : CBD 7%, Te Rapa 20%, Chartwell 51%... this sector clearly makes strong use of local centres like Chartwell and Thomas Road centres, prefers Te Rapa for large store shopping, and prefers Chartwell for its main centre. The CBD is distinctly secondary in all activities. (ii) Southeast eg. Hamilton East, Hillcrest residents make most frequent use of... - for supermarkets : Hillcrest 11%, and CBD 72% - for everyday goods & services : Hillcrest 24%, Hamilton East 23%, and CBD 28% (eg. definitely local shopping centres, but there are few so the CBD is important) - for furniture & appliances : Te Rapa 21%, the CBD 54%, and Frankton 5% - for banking : CBD 40%, Hamilton East 23%, and Chartwell 13% - for clothing & shoes : CBD 57%, Chartwell 17%, Te Rapa 7%, HamiltonEast 8% - for medical & dental : CBD 36%, HamiltonEast 22%, and many other local centres - for hardware & building : Te Rapa 44%, and CBD 36% - for petrol & diesel : Hamilton East 28%, CBD 36%, and other local venues - for car purchases : broadly consist results from all sectors at 30% Te Rapa area, 30% CBD, 8% Frankton, and the rest Misc. - for large retail stores : Te Rapa 32%, CBD 34% - for the primary main shopping centre : CBD 35%, Te Rapa 14%, Chartwell 27%... this sector makes strong use of the CBD for virtually all types of retail activities. (iii) West eg. Dinsdale, Nawton -- residents make most frequent use of... - for supermarkets : Dinsdale 28%, Nawton11%, and CBD 45% - for everyday goods & services : Dinsdale 42%, Nawton 22%, and CBD 23% (eg. definitely local shopping centres, but there are few so the CBD is important) - for furniture & appliances : Te Rapa 36%, the CBD 30%, and Frankton 11% - for banking : CBD 31%, Frankton 21%, Dinsdale 19%, Te Rapa 17% - for clothing & shoes : CBD 42%, Te Rapa 38%, Chartwell 12% - for medical & dental : CBD 23%, Dinsdale 23%, and many other local centres - for hardware & building : Te Rapa 63%, and CBD 14%, and Dinsdale 8% - for petrol & diesel : Dinsdale 34%, Frankton 17%, CBD 19%, and other local venues - for car purchases : broadly consist results from all sectors at 30% Te Rapa area, 30% CBD, 8% Frankton, and the rest Misc. - for large retail stores : Te Rapa 78%, CBD 14% - for the primary main shopping centre : CBD 16%, Te Rapa 46%, Chartwell 19%... this sector makes secondary use of the CBD for many activities, prefers the CBD for supermarkets and clothing & shoes, but prefers Te Rapa for large store shopping.

80 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 80 of 185 (iv) Southcentral eg. Glenview, Melville -- residents make most frequent use of... - for supermarkets : Glenview 22%, and CBD 55% - for everyday goods & services : Glenview 27%, Melville 13%, and CBD 31% (eg. definitely local shopping centres, but there are few so the CBD is important) - for furniture & appliances : Te Rapa 36%, the CBD 42%, and Frankton 5% - for banking : CBD 53%, Frankton 14%, Dinsdale 14%, - for clothing & shoes : CBD 67%, Te Rapa 17%, Chartwell 7%, - for medical & dental : CBD 42%, Glenview 16%, and many other local centres - for hardware & building : Te Rapa 45%, and CBD 33% - for petrol & diesel : CBD 40%, Glenview 20%, and other local venues - for car purchases : broadly consist results from all sectors at 30% Te Rapa area, 30% CBD, 8% Frankton, and the rest Misc. - for large retail stores : Te Rapa 47%, CBD 38% - for the primary main shopping centre : CBD 29%, Te Rapa 20%, Chartwell 15%... this sector makes strong use of the CBD for virtually all types of retail activities. (v) Northcentral eg. City Centre, Frankton, Bryant, Te Rapa -- make frequent use of... - for supermarkets : Te Rapa 34%, and the CBD 58% - for everyday goods & services : Te Rapa 24%, and CBD 36% (eg. local shopping centres are small, so the CBD is important) - for furniture & appliances : Te Rapa 38%, the CBD 33%, and Frankton 3% - for banking : CBD 36%, Te Rapa 26% - for clothing & shoes : CBD 52%, Te Rapa 26%, Chartwell 10%, - for medical & dental : CBD 33%, Te Rapa 14%, and many other local centres - for hardware & building : Te Rapa 65%, and CBD 12% - for petrol & diesel : Te Rapa 38%, CBD 20%, Frankton 10%, and other local venues - for car purchases : broadly consist results from all sectors at 30% Te Rapa area, 30% CBD, 8% Frankton, and the rest Misc. - for large retail stores : Te Rapa 69%, CBD 20% - for the primary main shopping centre : CBD 26%, Te Rapa 50%, Chartwell 12%... this sector makes strong use of the CBD for many activities including supermarkets and everyday goods, but prefers Te Rapa for hardware/building and generally for large retail stores. OVERALL, it is notable that the CBD is an important retail destination for people from all city sectors and for a wide range of retail activities eg. Broadly, the southeast and southcentral sectors are strongest support areas of CBD activities, being areas furthest away from Te Rapa or Chartwell influences..... while western and northcentral sectors have a strong secondary reliance on CBD activities and the northeast sector is most independent with Chartwell and Te Rapa being virtually local centres.

81 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 81 of 185 But there are notable variations in CBD usage by storetypes eg: - even for an everyday activity like supermarket shopping, the CBD is very frequently used by residents from all city sectors (between 33% and 72%); - and for everyday goods & services, several local centres are preferred, but for all sectors excepting the northeast (Chartwell), the CBD is also important at around 30% usage; - for furniture & appliances, Te Rapa is the no.1 preferred destination but the CBD is not far behind at between 30% to 50%; - for banking, the CBD is used by between 30% and 65%; - for clothing & shoes, the CBD is preferred by 50% or more in all sectors - for medical & dental, the CBD is preferred by between 20% to 40%, but this is one business sector where usage of many local centres is preferred; - for hardware & building, the Te Rapa area is strongly the preferred location from all city sectors; - for petrol & diesel, this is very much a local activity, with preference for the CBD varying between 15% (northeast) to 40% (southcentral and southeast); - for car purchases, broadly consistent results occur in all sectors with Te Rapa area 30%, CBD 30%, Frankton 8%, and a range of misc. sources; - for large retail stores, the Te Rapa area is the no.1 preferred destination from all sectors, with the CBD varying between 11% (in northeast and west sectors, being areas closest to Te Rapa) and around 30% elsewhere; - for the primary main shopping centre, the CBD is chosen by 21% of Hamiltonians, compared to Te Rapa at 29% and Chartwell at 27%. A further item noteworthy of some comment from the results in the household survey relates to the question : Do you think more shops are needed near your home? The results for Hamilton City show less than 1/3 rd agree with this. Agree Disagree Neutral Waipa District 17% 48% 35% Hamilton City 28% 37% 35% Waikato District 37% 36% 27% Morrinsville Area 32% 58% 10% But when you follow up on this in more detail through the sub-sector results around Hamilton, it emerges that 40% wanting more shops specifically name a supermarket, and 40% of those wanting a supermarket live in the southeast sector eg. Hamilton East, Hillcrest. This sub-sector would have the lowest representation of supermarkets with just one directly within the sub-sector (New World Hillcrest), but several options just outside the sub-sector in the CBD (5 x supermarkets here). This matter is considered further in the following section explaining new retail opportunities.

82 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 82 of 185 (ii) Customer Distribution Survey To help identify customer shopping patterns and the amount of customer support coming into Hamilton retail businesses from areas outside the City, a customer distribution survey was undertaken at the three key shopping precincts in Hamilton. The centres covered were : The Base, Chartwell, and the CBD around the core precinct including Centre Place -- Downtown Plaza -- K Mart Plaza/ Warehouse -- Farmers carparks. The methodology for this survey included the collection of vehicle license numbers from cars found in the carparks of the centres. At The Base, data collection included the main centre and also the Dressmart area, but excluded the Mitre 10 Mega store. At Chartwell, data collection included vehicles in the Mall carpark and also the Lynden Court area across the street. In the CBD Core, data was collected at multiple carparks directly around the main shopping precinct : Centre Place carpark, Downtown carpark, Farmers carpark, K-Mart Plaza carpark, and The Warehouse carpark. The sample period was over two Saturdays being a prime shopping day 22 October 2007 was Labour Day weekend and a very busy shopping period, and 17 November 2007 which was a normal weekend prior to any Christmas shopping influence. Data was collected between 1000am 200pm which spans prime shopping time. Collected vehicle license numbers were forwarded to the Transport Registry Centre which provided a schedule of addresses to vehicle owners. Addresses were plotted to identify the customer distribution. There are some notable trading patterns that emerge from this research when comparing the results from the three centres under study: (i) the key trend is a very large proportion of customers coming from outside the City area, eg: CBD : 54% customers from outside the City : 46% City-based The Base: 47% : 53% Chartwell : 40% : 60%... very broadly, a 50/50 split exists between customers that are City-based vs. customers coming from outside the City. (ii) from outside the City, key customer source areas are: Waipa District = 12% Waikato District = 8% Wider Waikato Region = 10% Bay of Plenty = 5% Auckland = 9% Elsewhere around NZ = 6% 50%

83 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 83 of 185 (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) notable at all centres is the relatively high level of customers from Auckland, around 9%, which is likely to be a reflection of weekend visitors and other passing trade (eg. Hamilton is a frequent venue for a wide range of special events sports, exhibits, club and social functions). particular to CBD trading is a distinct emphasise on customers coming from the southern half of the City and also from Waipa District worth about 50% of all CBD customers while The Base achieves strongest customer support from people living in the northern half of the City and also in Waikato District worth about 50% of all Base customers and at Chartwell, customer support emphasises the northeast and northcentral (TeRapa) sectors being those areas nearest Chartwell worth about 34% of all customers, with a fairly equal secondary influence across the remainder of the City worth 26% of all customers. Table E following shows the results of this survey work and Map 9 following illustrates the customer distribution pattern supporting the main retail centres in Hamilton City. A note of caution regarding these findings : a broad 50/50 split between City-based Customers vs. Customers from outside the City does not include the influence from Waikato and Waipa Districts and Morrinsville Area, which is worth 26% of customers. So the overall out-of-region customer influence (coming from beyond the regional study area) is +24%. Noteworthy, the customer survey data was collected only on Saturdays, being a prime shopping day on a weekend when greater travel to main centres can be expected. Conversely, during weekdays particularly early in the week, little out-of-city customers could be expected but building in importance as the week progresses. So, over a full week s trading, the shopping influence from out-of-region shoppers will be something less than 24%. As separate research exercises, we have completed several customer distribution studies for various major retailers around the City covering a one-week or longer trading period, and the overall average for out-of-region shopping is closer to +20%. This +20% customer flow from areas beyond the study region is equivalent to inbound sales leakage, and has relativity to subsequent calculations set out in Report Section 4 regarding estimating potential future retail sales (including any leakage affect) and retail floorspace demand.

84 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 84 of 185 TABLE E

85 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 85 of 185 MAP 9

86 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 86 of 185 On a centre by centre basis, key customer distribution trends include: (i) CBD Core The CBD has the highest level of shopping from outside the City, over half at 54% : - Waipa District is the most important customer source area, at 16 ½% (being located to the south, more removed from the trading influences of The Base and Chartwell) - Waikato District provides significantly less trade, at 6% (trading being influenced by the closer presence of The Base and Chartwell centres) - Auckland shows up as a significant customer source, around 9%, most likely a reflection of passing traffic and visitors. Within the City, the strongest source of customers emphasises the southern half of the city : - 20% from the Southeast (Hamilton East +Hillcrest areas) and from the Southwest (Glenview area) and from the Central / CBD areas + 11% from the western suburbs (Dinsdale, Nawton) 31% - with a reduced customer influence coming from the northern half of the city where The Base and Chartwell are located: eg. 15% from the north (Te Rapa) and northeast (Chartwell) The overall range in the customer distribution is broad and can be identified as follows: % from around the City - 6.0% from Waikato District % from Waipa District - 7.5% from Morrinsville 76.0% - 5.5% from other Waikato districts eg.otorohanga/waitomo,southwaikato,hauraki,and Coromandel - 4.5% from Bay of Plenty eg. Tauranga, Rotorua, Taupo, Whakatane - 8.5% from Auckland 18.5% - 5.5% from Elsewhere around the country 100% MAP 8, following, identifies the key customer source areas.

87 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 87 of 185 MAP 10

88 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 88 of 185 (ii) The Base The Base also draws a high level of customers from outside the city, worth 47% : - Waikato District is the single most important source, worth 10% (being located directly north, east and west of The Base); - Waipa District provides a lesser proportion, around 7 ½% (trading here being influenced by the closer presence of the CBD which achieves good customer support from across Waipa District); - Auckland based customers are also important, worth 9% (as city visitors / passing traffic). Within the City, the strongest source of customers emphasises the northern half of the city : - 25% from the Northeast (Chartwell/Rototuna) and from the North (Te Rapa) + 14% from the western suburbs (Dinsdale, Nawton) 39% - with a reduced customer influence coming from the southern half of the city where the City CBD has its strongest influence eg. 15% from the southeast (Hillcrest, Hamilton East), from the southwest(glenview), and from the central/cbd sector The overall range in the customer distribution is broad and can be identified as follows: % from around the City % from Waikato District - 7.5% from Waipa District - 4.0% from Morrinsville 74.5% - 4.0% from other Waikato districts eg. Otorohanga/Waitomo, South Waikato, Hauraki, Coromandel - 6.0% from Bay of Plenty eg. Tauranga, Rotorua, Taupo, Whakatane - 9.0% from Auckland 19.0% - 6.5% from Other 100% MAP 9, following, identifies the key customer source areas.

89 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 89 of 185 MAP 11

90 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 90 of 185 (iii) Chartwell Chartwell has the least amount of customer influence from outside the city, 40% -- but this is relative to the experience at The Base and the CBD; 40% can still be considered a significant out-of-city shopping influence. - Waikato District and Waipa District are of similar importance in providing customers, worth 7% each; - Auckland based customers also provide a similar level of support, around 7%, from city visitors / passing traffic. Within the City, the strongest source of customers emphasises the northeast sector of the city : - 30% from the Northeast (Chartwell/Rototuna) +4.5% from the North (Te Rapa) 34.5% - and with secondary customer support coming from 7.0% from southeast (Hamilton East, Hillcrest) 4.0% southwest (Glenview) 5.0% central/cbd 9.5% west (Dinsdale,Nawton) 25.5% The overall range in the customer distribution is broad and can be identified as follows: % from around the City - 7.5% from Waikato District - 7.0% from Waipa District - 4.0% from Morrinsville 78.5% - 4.0% from other Waikato districts eg. Otorohanga/Waitomo, South Waikato, Hauraki, Coromandel - 2.5% from Bay of Plenty eg. Tauranga, Rotorua, Taupo, Whakatane - 7.5% from Auckland 14.0% - 7.5% from Other 100% MAP 10, following, identifies the key customer source areas.

91 Waikato Regional Retail Study/ pg 91 of 185 MAP 12