GCC shows signs of a slowdown

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Blanche Chambers
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1 GCC shows signs of a slowdown [Content preview Subscribe to Jane s Airport Review for full article] A capacity crunch, airspace fragmentation, and geopolitical tensions between Qatar and other Gulf Cooperation Council members are affecting the pace of aviation growth in the region. Ben Vogel reports Dubai International Airport remained the busiest in the world for international passenger volume with 88.2 million people passing through the hub in 2017, retaining its crown for the fourth consecutive year. However, this total represented growth of just 5.5% the slowest rate for nine years. Operator Dubai Airports predicts an even more sluggish increase in 2018 of 2.4% (90.3 million passengers) as capacity constraints begin to bite. This reflects a broader geographical trend. Provisional full-year figures for 2017 from the International Air Transport Association showed that the Middle East (6.6%) was the only region with slower international passenger traffic growth than Dubai International Airport remains the busiest airport in the world by international passenger volume (pictured is an Emirates A380 on a stand in Concourse A). (Dubai Airports) Dubai Airports expects double-digit passenger growth at Dubai International to resume as early as 2019, as the partnership between Emirates and flydubai beds in. The two airlines account Page 1 of 5

2 respectively for 51% and 13.2% of passenger traffic at the airport. The strategic agreement, announced in July 2017, enables flydubai to operate some flights from Terminal 3 but most will remain in Terminal 2 after a study found that co-locating the two carriers was not feasible. Air Moldova, Badr Airlines (Sudan), and SalamAir (Oman) were among the six carriers to begin scheduled services in Emirates added three destinations and increased frequency or capacity on 31 routes. Deadlines slip Al Maktoum is intended to become the main airport for Dubai in the medium-to-long term. An expansion project will be completed in 2018 (pushed back from 2017) to enable the airport to cater for up to 26 million passengers, but it will end the year well short of that mark. ATC tower at twilight, Al Maktoum International Airport. (Dubai Airports) Traffic is on the rise at Al Maktoum but it still welcomed fewer than 905,000 passengers in 2017, driven partly by relaxed visa regulations for Russian citizens. Flydubai is expected to use Al Maktoum from 2019 onwards but the planned migration of Emirates operations from Dubai International will only begin in 2025, when both airports are expected to serve a combined million passengers. Elsewhere in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the chairman of Abu Dhabi Airports. Awaidha Murshed Al Marar, said in November 2017 that the new midfield terminal at Abu Dhabi International Airport will open in the fourth quarter of 2019, well past the original target of 2017 He said 86% of construction work for the 742,000 m 2, USD2.94 billion Midfield Terminal Building (MTB) was now completed, despite the challenges and difficulties associated with the technical design of the new terminal. Page 2 of 5

regional and international air transport map, handling 45 million passengers per annum by 2027.

3 Abu Dhabi Airports targets late 2019 for completion of the Midfield Terminal Building at Abu Dhabi International Airport. (Abu Dhabi Airports) Speaking at a meeting of project partners, Al Marar added that the MTB would ensure that the airport in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE, would make its mark on the regional and international air transport map, handling 45 million passengers per annum by However, he admitted the timetable was tight, with very little time left to deliver this landmark by the fourth quarter of Rendering of the new ATCC at Bahrain International Airport. (ADP Ingénierie) Qatar crisis No discussion of the Middle East can be complete without considering the complex geopolitical context. Civil war in Syria and Yemen, as well as the ongoing Qatar-GCC diplomatic crisis, will continue to influence the regional aviation sector in Page 3 of 5

In June 2017, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE suspended diplomatic relations with Qatar, alleging that its government provides assistance to terrorist groups such as Islamic State.

4 In June 2017, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE suspended diplomatic relations with Qatar, alleging that its government provides assistance to terrorist groups such as Islamic State. All Qatariregistered aircraft (mainly operated by Qatar Airways, as the only commercial airline in the kingdom) have since been denied access to the Manama (Bahrain) and Dubai (UAE) Flight Information Regions (FIRs). Qatar does not maintain its own FIR; its airspace is within the Manama FIR. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) discussed the Qatar blockade in an extraordinary session in August 2017, and called for all parties in the dispute to respect freedom of the skies as enshrined in Article 54 of the Chicago Convention but this appeal was only partially successful: Bahrain and the UAE relaxed some of the restrictions on overflights through their airspace, but the primary markets for Qatar Airways (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) remain closed. The blockade on Qatar since June 2017 has shut off Qatar Airways from its main local markets in the GCC region. (Getty) Defragmentation remains a pipedream The Qatar crisis highlights the long-standing problem of airspace fragmentation in the GCC region and broader Middle East. This contributes to major operational inefficiency and adds millions of dollars to airline costs. However, defragmentation is complicated by military control over swathes of airspace. Industry insiders and regulators are well aware that a single umbrella organisation for the Gulf states, similar to the Single European Sky (SES), would help air traffic management keep pace with the rapid expansion of airline fleets and airports in the region. Page 4 of 5

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