Data Digest: Florida August 2013
The economic performance for Florida and the United States has been improving since the end of 2010. However, the nation has been improving at a faster rate than Florida. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = 100 120 Coincident Economic Indicator 115 110 105 100 95 United States Florida 90 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2
Total employment in Florida continues to increase at a moderate pace. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 8,500 Florida Payroll Employment 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3
All industries lost jobs during the downturn, with construction being the hardest hit. Government sectors continue to show weak employment growth, but industries such as leisure and hospitality and education and health care have added back more jobs since their troughs. Overall, the state has added back nearly half of the jobs lost during the downturn. Local government Federal & state government Other services Leisure & hospitality Education & healthcare Business services Financial services Information Transport/Warehousing/Utilities Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Florida Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present -49.7-24.5-20.0-16.0-60 -50-40 -30-20 -10 0 10 20-14.5-14.2-12.1-11.3-10.6-11.4-7.0-7.6-5.9-0.3 1.3 1.1 2.5 1.6 2.8 3.0 6.3 5.7 5.3 7.2 8.7 11.6 10.7 10.0 Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 4
3-month average annualized percent change All of the large sectors in Florida remained in expanding territory in June. Federal and state government and manufacturing employment momentum continued to contract while wholesale trade and transportation/warehouse/utilities slipped. About Employment Momentum 12 Improving Employment Momentum by Industry: Florida Expanding 10 Construction 8 6 Information Business services Retail trade 4 Local government Financial services 2 0 Other services Education and health care Leisure and hospitality -2-4 -6 Federal and state government Contracting Manufacturing Wholesale trade Transport/ Warehouse/ Utilities -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Year-over-year percent change Slipping Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5
Job losses in all of the state s metro areas were significant during the economic downturn, but all have shown gains since their trough. Tampa, Orlando, Naples, Miami-Fort Lauderdale, and Jacksonville have added back over half of the jobs lost during the downturn. W. Palm Beach Tampa-St. Pete Tallahassee Vero Beach Sarasota Punta Gorda St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Pensacola Panama City Orlando Ocala Naples Miami-Ft.L'dale Melbourne Lakeland Jacksonville Gainesville Ft. Myers Daytona Florida Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Florida -18.2-16.7-16.8-15.1-13.9-12.2-12.6-11.2-12.2 Percent change peak to trough -10.6 Percent change trough to present -11.6-11.4-10.2-9.7-10.3-9.3-9.5-9.2-8.1 Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present. -6.5-25 -20-15 -10-5 0 5 10 15 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 1.8 1.3 2.6 2.1 3.3 4.3 4.2 4.8 4.4 5.4 5.3 5.0 4.9 5.8 5.6 5.3 7.0 7.7 7.5 10.8 6
3-month average annualized percent change Employment momentum for most of Florida s metro areas continued to expand in June. Momentum slipped in Sarasota, Daytona, Pensacola, West Palm Beach, and Tallahassee and improved in Panama City. Lakeland s employment momentum continues to contract. About Employment Momentum 7 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Florida Expanding 6 Naples 5 Panama City 4 Gainesville Tampa-St. Pete 3 Orlando 2 1 0-1 -2 Melbourne Punta Gorda Miami-Ft. Lauderdale St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Ft. Myers Vero Beach Jacksonville Pensacola Lakeland Tallahassee Daytona Sarasota West Palm Beach Ocala -3 Contracting Slipping -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7
3-month average percent change, annualized Since August 2010, Florida s employment momentum has been expanding each month. About Employment Momentum Track 4 Improving Employment Momentum Track: Florida January 2007 Expanding 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Contracting Slipping -10-8 -6-4 -2 0 2 4 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8
Both the nation and Florida s unemployment rate remained unchanged in June. Florida s rate and all metro area rates are lower than they were a year ago. Percent of labor force 12 Unemployment Rates 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Florida United States Unemployment Rates Current Year Ago Jan 2007 United States 7.6 8.2 4.6 Florida 7.1 8.8 3.5 Ft. Myers 7.4 9.4 3.4 Daytona 7.3 9.1 3.8 Gainesville 6.0 7.4 2.8 Jacksonville 7.0 8.7 3.6 Lakeland 8.4 10.3 3.9 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale 7.6 9.1 3.5 Naples 7.2 9.0 3.1 Ocala 8.2 10.3 4.0 Orlando 6.9 8.8 3.4 Melbourne 7.8 9.5 3.9 Panama City 6.6 8.0 4.0 Pensacola 7.0 8.6 3.5 Punta Gorda 7.3 9.0 3.9 Sarasota 7.2 8.8 3.6 Vero Beach 9.3 11.5 4.5 Tallahassee 6.7 8.1 3.0 Tampa-St. Pete 7.2 9.1 3.8 3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9
Initial claims for unemployment insurance have been steadily trending downward since their peak in early 2009. Data showed a pickup in claims from mid-january to mid-february of this year; however, that trend has since reversed. Levels are close to what they were in early 2008. Percent of labor force 4-week moving average 30,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Florida through July 13, 2013 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Initial claims averaged just over 10,000 during 2004 2006. 5,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 10
Sales tax revenue and consumer confidence in Florida increased in June. 1966 = 100 100 Florida Sales Tax Revenue and Consumer Confidence Year-to-year change, 3-month moving average 20 95 15 90 85 80 Florida Consumer Confidence (left scale) Florida Sales Tax Revenue (right scale) 10 5 75 0 70 65 60 Sales tax revenues have been helped by healthy activity in the leisure and hospitality sector. International visitors have played an important role in boosting tourism spending. -5-10 55 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research Center, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta -15 11
The Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University, which measures regional manufacturing activity, contracted to 52.9 in June. However, Florida s component expanded to 63.3 in June from 57.8 in May. 75 Southeast Purchasing Managers Index 65 55 45 35 The Florida component of the SE PMI was 63.3 in June. 25 15 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center 12
Home prices in Florida declined substantially over the past five years. From 2009 to late 2011, prices began to stabilize. Since the beginning of 2012, home prices in Florida have improved for most metro markets. Jan 2000 = 100 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 Miami Tampa S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through May 2013 Composite 20 FHFA House Price Index: Q1 2013 1-yr % change 5-yr % change 10-yr % change USA 2.0-14.1 14.5 Florida 4.0-33.6 6.1 Ft. Myers 9.0-32.7-3.6 Daytona 4.1-40.6-2.1 Ft. Lauderdale 5.8-33.7 7.5 Gainesville 2.3-28.9 16.7 Jacksonville -0.1-32.3 6.9 Lakeland 2.3-41.6-1.0 Miami 7.4-37.2 15.8 Naples 5.1-34.6 1.4 Ocala 5.3-40.0 0.8 Orlando 4.8-39.2 1.2 Melbourne 4.8-34.1-0.8 Panama City -0.2-29.1 17.5 Pensacola 0.4-23.2 14.5 St. Lucie-Fort Pierce 1.9-40.1-11.3 Punta Gorda 6.1-30.9-5.5 Tallahassee -1.3-26.4 12.6 Tampa-St. Pete 3.4-32.9 4.4 Vero Beach 0.3-33.9-3.0 West Palm Beach 6.6-33.2 4.2 75 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: S&P, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 13
The number of new home construction permits issued in Florida and the United States decreased significantly in June. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits 30,000 180,000 160,000 25,000 140,000 120,000 20,000 100,000 15,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 United States (left scale) Florida (right scale) 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 0 14
Sales growth for Florida homebuilders remained steady in June but increased for Realtors, according to the latest Atlanta Fed Real Estate Poll. About the Real Estate Contact Poll 1.0 FRB Atlanta Real Estate Contact Poll: Florida Current Home Sales vs. Year-ago Levels 0.8 0.6 0.4 Realtors Homebuilders 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 15
Office vacancy rates rose in Jacksonville, Orlando, and Tampa during the first quarter of the year. Rates declined in Fort Lauderdale and remained flat in Miami; the nation experienced a mild decline. Percent 24 Office Vacancy Rate Q1 2013 United States Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 16
Industrial availability rates in Jacksonville and Fort Lauderdale rose during the first quarter of the year. During the same period, the rate declined in Orlando and Miami and remained flat in Tampa. The nation s rate declined as well. Percent 24 22 Industrial Availability Rate Q1 2013 United States Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Note: There was a break in the series for Fort Lauderdale and Miami from Q2 2006 through Q3 2007. Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 17
For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at www.frbatlanta.org/rein/learn/map/learn_members.cfm 18