Aviation Growth in China:Challenges, Opportunities, and Solutions Yanjun Wang, and Minghua Hu Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics National Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Flow Management The 4 th ENRI International Workshop on ATM/CNS November, 2015, Tokyo, Japan
Contents Aviation growth in China Problems and challenges Opportunities for aviation development Proposed solutions for ATFM development 2
1. Aviation Growth in China Traffic growth ATM Infrastructure development Aviation related staff 3
Air Traffic Flow 1 Aviation Growth in China Arrivals and departures in civil airport are growing with an average rate of 11% over the last 6 years Flights under control in the future is predicted to be exponentially growing. Arrivals and departures (in 10,000 flights) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Arrivals and departures 731.5 YoY growth rate 660.3 598 553.2 484.1 422.7 14.5 14.3 10.4 10.8 7.3 8.1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year Historical flow statistics 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 YoY growth rate (%) Traffic volume (in million flights) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Predicted traffic volume Exponential fitting 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Year Traffic flow forecast
1 Aviation Growth in China Airport and Airspace Planning Before 2020, the number of civil airports in China will increase to 244, multi airports group in northern, eastern, central southern, southwestern and northwestern China will be in shape. Layout planning data of airports in China before 2020 (Not including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions)
1 Aviation Growth in China Airport and Airspace Planning By the end of 2011, there are more than 500 coded civil aviation route in China, among them 245 are international routes, and 321 are domestic routes. Air route and airline planning data of civil aviation in china
1 Aviation Growth in China 2000 Needs of Air Traffic Controller Licensed ATCOs All ATCOs Flights under control (in million) 1000 500 0 8 6 4 2 0 Number of ATCOs Flights under control (in million) In 2013, there are around 5,000 1500 licensed air traffic controllers who provide service to more than 24 million flights in China. By the end of 2013, there are 35,505 pilots in China. Northern China ntral Southern China Eastern China North Eastern China North Western China South Western China Xinjiang
2 Main problems and challenges Flights delay Airspace/airports congestion Unbalanced traffic distribution in China Emerged multi airports systems Conflicts between civil and military users High speed train 8
Main problems Delay Congestion Safety and Security 9 Environmental Impacts
Flights delay The punctuality has been decreasing dramatically since 2006, how to deal with flight delay impact has become the focus of China Civil Aviation. Arrivals and departures (in million flights) 8 6 4 2 81.48 83.13 80.16 81.05 74.95 77.15 74.83 72.34 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 80 75 70 Arrivals and d Punctuality (% Punctuality (%) 10
The characteristics of ATM system in China Uncertainty Diversity Complexity 11
2. Challenges in China System and Mechanism Reforms CDM Civil Military Coordination Collaborative Decision Making
3. Opportunities High level drive for the development of new generation ATM systems. Developments at bottom level 13
Government Policy 3. Opportunities in China Research and develop of next generation ATM system is now put into the Medium / Long term Science And Technology Development Plan Program (2006 2020).
Government Policy 3. Opportunities in China The State Council uplifted the airspace congestion and flight delays problem to the national level in a document issued to promote the development of civil aviation.
Development Needs 3. Opportunities in China Construction of airports in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.
Development Needs 3. Opportunities in China Construction of grand route in civil aviation
Development Needs 3. Opportunities in China Route map of PBN implementation
4. Proposed solutions Development of operation standards and specifications Gguidance on Ccollaborative Delivery of Flights Guidance on ATFM of China Civil Aviation Guidance on Management of Air Traffic Capacity Guidance on Emergency Response of Large Scale Flight Delays Development of systems, tools and mechanisms Professional staff 19
Thank you! Questions? Yanjun Wang ywang@nuaa.edu.cn http://atfm.nuaa.edu.cn Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics