Bridging the Northern Gap: Can construction pave the way? A report examining current trends in the northern construction market, how it compares to the UK and the South East, and its prospects for the future. Construction in the North How the North Compares Sector Strength in Construction The Construction Pipeline Future Prospects
Construction in the North: There has been increasing focus over recent months about rebalancing the UK economy away from a dependence on London and the South East. There is a strong lobby emerging backing additional devolved powers to the northern city regions to enable more fiscal and political autonomy, echoing the current debate in Scotland. This discussion is taking place in tandem with increasing rhetoric from the UK Government on improving infrastructure outside of London, particularly transport infrastructure, to facilitate a more even spread of economic prosperity. While much of the focus has been on connecting North and South via HS2 there is also recognition of the need to improve east-west links to better connect cities such as Leeds and Manchester and create a wider functional economic area. The North accounted for 25.5 billion of output over the last year One idea is the One North proposal, which aims to speed up the delivery of HS2, fully integrate the regional transport connections, and develop a high speed Trans-Pennine route. This has received broad political support with all parties keen to improve transport infrastructure in the North. Clearly, the increasing focus on the North of the country is likely to be particularly beneficial to the North West region given the existence of the City Region around Manchester and Liverpool. However, recently the RSA City Growth Commission along with Jim O Neill, who developed the BRIC acronym, have extended this idea to the whole of the North of England in what is termed ManSheffLeedsPool, building the individual and collective power of each of these major conurbations. "MANSHEFFLEEDSPOOL"... BUILDING THE INDIVIDUAL AND COLLECTIVE POWER OF EACH OF THESE MAJOR CONURBATIONS Leeds Manchester Liverpool Sheffield
How the North Compares: Although the construction industry has grown considerably over the last 12 months, the performance of the northern regions has been varied with the North West ranked fourth in terms of output UK-wide over the last year. London is the dominant region as expected but the North West accounted for 12.5 billion of output over the last year. The other northern regions, Yorkshire & the Humber and North East fared less well accounting for 9 billion and 4 billion respectively of construction activity. The North East experienced the lowest levels of output in the UK over the past 12 months, reflecting the broader economic difficulties in the region. CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT ( MILLION) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 26,667m SOUTH EAST 18,599m EAST OF ENGLAND 13,528m NORTH WEST 12,532m SCOTLAND SOUTH WEST WEST MIDLANDS 10,164m 9,839m 11,289m The construction market in the North over the past year has been dominated by the residential sector, which is unsurprising given that it has been the major driver of industry growth in the UK. YORKSHIRE & THE HUMBER 9,022m EAST MIDLANDS 7,361m 12% 14% WALES 4,542m NORTH EAST Source: ONS 3,968m 27% 20% According to Barbour ABI, 27% of contracts awarded in the North in the past 12 months were in the residential sector. The next most prominent sector was education accounting for 20%, while 14% of the contract value was in the commercial & retail sector. 5% Commercial & Retail Education Hotel, Leisure & Sport Industrial 12% 10% Medical & Healthcare Residential Infrastructure Source: Barbour ABI
Sector Strength in Construction: Comparing the proportion of contracts in the North to the UK-wide average by sector allows an assessment of where the current strengths in construction are. Using these Location Quotients (LQs) to compare the relative size of a sector in the North against the national average means a figure above 1 indicates that the sector contributes more to construction in the North than to the country-wide average. A quotient of below 1 indicates a relatively lower contribution to the construction sector in the North compared to the rest of the country. MEDICAL & HEALTHCARE INDUSTRIAL RESIDENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE EDUCATION n North East COMMERCIAL & RETAIL HOTEL, LEISURE & SPORT n North West n Yorkshire & Humberside Source: Barbour ABI 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 The analysis for the northern regions shows that the industrial sector is well represented across all three, accounting for a larger than average presence in each. This is perhaps a reflection of the changing nature of consumer habits with more online shopping, meaning a higher number of warehouses in particular being built. The medical and healthcare sector is particularly strong in the North West and Yorkshire, but is notably under-represented in the North East. The residential sector, the main driver of growth in the last year, has a location quotient of above 1 in both the North East and the North West with Yorkshire & the Humber in line with the national figure. Interestingly, in both the infrastructure and commercial sectors, all three regions have had the least amount of contract activity in the country as a whole. This demonstrates the challenges currently faced by the northern regions with lower levels than the national average of contracts awarded in the high value commercial sectors, which are dominated by London and the South East. This demonstrates an opportunity for growth in these sectors in the future to catch up with other parts of the country.
The Construction Pipeline: The top 25 projects by value in the pipeline for the North of England total 8.2 billion. Major projects like the Sellafield plant in Cumbria (worth 1.3 billion) and power stations in Knottingley, Doncaster and Grimsby (worth a combined total of 2.7 billion) contribute to this pipeline. The largest project in the pipeline in the North East is the Middlehaven Dock development which is a retail led scheme to regenerate an area of Cleveland worth 225 million. Comparing this to the pipeline in London and the South East demonstrates the difference in the scale of proposed development between the two areas. The top 25 projects in London & the South East total 47.8 billion, five times higher than the northern regions. 20000 Value of Projects ( million) 15000 10000 HS2 (High Speed Rail Line) Phase 1 - London to Birmingham 17 billion The top 25 projects are those projects that are beyond the scoping phase and have proposed start dates attached to them. 47.8bn Top 25 pipeline projects SOUTH EAST REGIONS 8.2bn Top 25 pipeline projects THE NORTHERN REGIONS 5000 Brent Cricklewood Regeneration Area South Masterplan 4 billion Whitgift Shopping Centre Redevelopment - Masterplan SURREY 1 billion Gateway Energy Centre Ccgt Facility 600 million Source: Barbour ABI 0 South Bank Urban Quarter Development 1 billion Thames Tideway Tunnel - Lot Houses Of Parliament 2/C410 Main Works Central Refurbishments 950 million 720 million North Killingholme HUMBERSIDE 1 billion White Rose Carbon Capture and Storage Project NORTH YORKSHIRE 300 million Lindley Moor Data Campus WEST YORKSHIRE 200 million A556 Knutsford to Bowden Improvements CHESHIRE A6 to Manchester Airport Relief Road CHESHIRE 102 million 73.2 million Sellafield Site CUMBRIA Middlehaven Dock Development CLEVELAND York Potash Project CLEVELAND 1.3 billion 225 million 87.2 million It is clear that the current pipeline will be dramatically altered if the projects proposed for the northern regions are approved. The proposed Trans-Pennine high speed rail development, valued at 15 20 billion is worth more than double the current existing pipeline of the top 25 projects combined. Phase 2 of HS2 has a current estimated value of 21.2 billion which is also more than double the value of the existing top 25 projects.
Future Prospects: The construction sector in the northern regions has had a varied performance over the past 12 months with the residential sector, in common with the rest of the UK, performing strongly specifically. The industrial sector was also well represented across the three regions reflecting the attractiveness of the North for warehouses to serve local markets. Other sectors such as medical and healthcare have also demonstrated strength in the Yorkshire & the Humber and North West. However, both the commercial and infrastructure sectors are under-represented across the northern regions. Both of these sectors are particularly strong in London and the South East which demonstrates the areas where the North has scope to improve performance. The top 25 projects in the construction pipeline in London and the South East are five times the value of the northern regions of England. This is forecast to change with both HS2 Phase 2 and a high speed Trans-Pennine rail link proposed over the next 15 to 20 years. The combined value of these projects alone is around 40 billion which is four times the value of the current top 25 projects in the pipeline across all three regions. That is not including the wider economic benefits that arise from major schemes of this type. It is likely that the under-performing commercial sector would stand to benefit greatly from such investment. With other projects set to be announced in the Autumn Statement it is clear that these investments will be game changers for the construction sector across the North of England. 41.2bn The proposed Trans-Pennine high speed rail development and phase 2 of HS2 8.2bn Top 25 pipeline projects However, the difference in scale between the North and South at present is clear. The South has had more contracts awarded in commercial and infrastructure and a significantly larger pipeline in the future. The potential impacts of the major schemes proposed for the North, in terms of employment and economic output, are clear. It remains to be seen whether these projects receive approval and commence construction. If they do, there are significant opportunities for the construction industry and the economy as a whole across the North of England. Hinderton Point, Lloyd Drive, Cheshire Oaks, Cheshire, CH65 9HQ T: 0151 353 3500 E: info@barbour-abi.com W: www.barbour-abi.com @BarbourABI