Dufferin County Housing Market Update Orangeville November 24, 2015 Housing market intelligence you can count on
Dufferin County Core Housing Need 25% 2006 2011 20% 19.8% 20.1% 18.1% 15% 15.2% 10% 10.5% 9.6% 8.6% 8.7% 11.7% 11.4% 5% 0% 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All Ages Source: CMHC
Assessing Housing Need Adequate Housing does not require any major repairs (no defective plumbing or electrical wiring, or structural repairs to walls, floors or ceilings). Suitable Enough bedrooms for the size and make-up of residents (e.g. one bedroom for each cohabiting adult, unattached member of 18 years of age and older). Affordable Housing costs are less than 30 per cent of before tax income.
Dufferin County Core Housing Need Average Household Income by Age and Type, 2011 $120,000 All Households Households in Core Need $109,772 $100,000 $98,595 $97,040 $80,000 $70,886 $73,448 $60,000 $40,000 $26,839 $32,602 $23,347 $22,546 $25,619 $20,000 $0 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All Ages Source: CMHC
Dufferin County Core Housing Need Share of Income Spent on Shelter (%) by Age and Type 70 All Households Households in Core Need 60 56.5% 55.4% 51.6% 50 45.3% 45.0% 40 30 20 27.4% 25.2% 21.5% 23.5% 23.3% 10 0 15-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All Ages Source: CMHC
Highest among renter and lone parent households Incidence of Core Housing Need, 2011 Renter 34.6% Lone parents 26.8% Non-family households 25.6% Family households 7.8% Owner 6.9% Couples 4.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Source: CMHC
Age Distribution, Dufferin County 2006, 2011 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2006 2011 0% Source: Statistics Canada (Census of Canada)
Population Growth, Dufferin County, 2006-2011 25% 20.7% 20.2% 20% 18.4% 15% 10% 9.3% 5% 0% -5% -1.8% -10% -6.5% -15% -13.8% -20% Source: Statistics Canada <14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Age Distribution, 2011 Orangeville and Dufferin County 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Orangeville Dufferin Source: Statistics Canada (Census of Canada)
Median Age of Population Ontario 40.4 Barrie Bradford West Gwillimbury Orangeville 37.3 Dufferin 40.0 Caledon Innisfil New Tecumseth Springwater King Collingwood Penetanguishene Midland Wasaga Beach Source: Statistics Canada (Census 2011) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Migration, Dufferin County, 2006-2011 12,000 10,000 OUT IN 8,000 4,799 6,000 3,018 4,000 2,000 0 2,746 2,265 5,807 3,724 2,844 1,026 1,565 1,257 0-17 years 18-24 years 25-44 years 45-64 years 65+ years Source: Statistics Canada
Dufferin County Labour Market Dufferin Ontario Participation rate 70.7% 65.5% Employment rate 65.7% 60.1% Unemployment rate 7.0% 8.3% Full-time Share 79.4% 75.3 Source: Statistics Canada NHS 2011
Top Industries in Dufferin County Number of Share of Industry Employed Employed Manufacturing 4,065 12.7% Retail trade 3,805 11.9% Health care and social assistance 2,775 8.7% Construction 2,620 8.2% Transportation and warehousing 1,995 6.3% Educational services 1,980 6.2% Public administration 1,890 5.9% Accommodation and food services 1,865 5.8% Wholesale trade 1,825 5.7% Administrative and support, waste management and remediation 1,510 4.7% Other services (except public administration) 1,465 4.6% Professional, scientific and technical services 1,405 4.4% Finance and insurance 1,005 3.1% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 970 3.0% Arts, entertainment and recreation 640 2.0% Information and cultural industries 575 1.8% Real estate and rental and leasing 520 1.6% Source: Statistics Canada NHS 2011
Current Housing Stock 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 11.2% 6.8% 5.2% 76.4% 17.3% 12.3% 9.4% 60.9% Apartment Semi-detached Row Single-detached 10% 0% Dufferin Orangeville Source: Statistics Canada (2011 Census)
Age Distribution, Single-detached Homes, 2011 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Orangeville Greater Toronto Area (CMA) 20% 10% 0% 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey)
Age Distribution, Apartments, 2011 60% 50% Orangeville Greater Toronto Area (CMA) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey)
Living Arrangements By Age, Orangeville, 2011 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Married spouses, common-law partners Living Alone 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey)
Owner Share of Total Households Orangeville Rate of Homeownership by Age 100% 90% 80% 72.5% 81.2% 83.6% 84.0% 85.8% 70% 60% 56.7% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over Source: Statistics Canada (National Household Survey)
Orangeville & Area Home Sales on Record Pace 750 700 712 650 600 563 651 622 608 635 633 607 565 550 500 450 466 400 350 300 Source: CREA YTD=January-October
Average MLS Existing Home Price Prices Up Strongly in 2015 $450,000 $410,480 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Source: CREA
Orangeville & Area Market in High Demand 100 90 Sales-to-New Listings Ratio, Seasonally Adjusted Sellers Market 80 70 60 50 Balanced Market 40 30 20 Buyers Market 10 Source: CREA
Number of Starts Orangeville/Mono Housing Starts 300 Apartment Row Semi-Detached Single 250 200 28 150 18 100 188 50 133 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 YTD 2015 YTD Source: CMHC, YTD=Jan-Oct
Orangeville/Mono New Home Prices $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $510,412 $523,740 $450,000 $400,000 $413,859 $431,598 $432,977 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: CMHC Absorption Survey,
Ontario rental market vacancy rates in Fall 2015 October 2015 vacancy rates by select centres Thunder Bay Windsor Peterborough Hamilton Sudbury St. Catharines-Niagara Brantford Kingston London Ottawa Kitchener-Waterloo Oshawa Toronto Barrie Guelph Orangeville 1.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Source: CMHC Rental Market Survey
Orangeville/Mono Rental Market Vacancy Rate Two-bedroom Rent 4.0% $1,100 3.5% $1,048 $1,050 3.0% 2.5% $968 2.2% $955 $977 2.1% $1,000 2.5% $1,000 $950 2.0% $900 1.5% 1.4% $850 1.0% 0.6% $800 0.5% $750 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: CMHC Rental Market Survey $700
Average Rents, Studio/Private Unit, Seniors Housing, 2015 York Halton Peel Durham Ottawa Waterloo Toronto Wellington/Dufferin $2,858 Muskoka Hamilton Simcoe Peterborough Rest of Simcoe Niagara $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 Source: CMHC
Vacancy Rates, Seniors Housing, 2015 Muskoka Waterloo Rest of Simcoe Simcoe York Toronto Wellington/Dufferin 13.4% Peel Ottawa Hamilton Niagara Halton Durham Peterborough 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Source: CMHC
Thank You Questions? Andrew Scott Senior Market Analyst alscott@cmhc.ca
Investments in Affordable Housing 2014-2019
Investment in Affordable Housing Investment in Affordable Housing (IAH) Program: The Federal Government through CMHC provides $80.13M per fiscal year to the Province of Ontario Cost matched by the Province Total investment of $160.26M per fiscal year Annual allocations are provided to the 47 Local Service Managers across the province. Flexibility to design and deliver a range of affordable housing programs to address local housing needs and priorities.