World Airport Traffic Forecast ACI-World Bank Annual Aviation Symposium 9 th April 2018 Aram Karagueuzian Manager, Airport Traffic Statistics and Forecasts, ACI World
Outline World Airport Traffic Forecast Approaches to forecasting ACI World forecasts Key results
Demand Aggregation Forecast horizons: Supply? levels: Forecasts are produced from data, HIGH meaning Global Very they long-term reflect traffic the (20+ market years) as a whole. As a rule of thumb European Long-term traffic (5~20 years) Low-level: Supply-driven High-level: UK Mid-term traffic (3~5 Demand-driven years) Short-term: London traffic (1-2 Supply-driven years) Long-term: Demand-driven LHR Very traffic short-term ( < 1 year) Specific Operational operations (the next forecasts few low within weeks, the days airport even hours) Aggregation level 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 SUPPLY Airport traffic forecasts Demand-driven or Supply-driven? 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Forecast horizon DEMAND
Approaches to forecasting High level Macro indicators in econometric and time series models Business as usual Low level Microeconomic (e.g. route level and market considerations)
Reconciling operational and strategic forecasts across aggregation levels (from Macro to Micro): Hierarchical/grouped time series reconciliation Hyndman, Rob J., et al. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series." Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 55.9 (2011): 2579-2589. Hyndman, Rob J., Alan J. Lee, and Earo Wang. "Fast computation of reconciled forecasts for hierarchical and grouped time series." Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 97 (2016): 16-32. across time horizons (from high- to low-frequency data): Temporal Hierarchies Athanasopoulos, George, et al. "Forecasting with temporal hierarchies." European Journal of Operational Research 262.1 (2017): 60-74. Kourentzes, Nikolaos, Fotios Petropoulos, and Juan R. Trapero. "Improving forecasting by estimating time series structural components across multiple frequencies." International Journal of Forecasting 30.2 (2014): 291-302.
World Airport Traffic Forecasts 2017-2040 Covers the 2017 to 2040 period, using 2016 as reference year Features traffic volumes, growth rates, market shares and contribution to growth for Total passengers, broken down into international and domestic Total air cargo Total aircraft movements Presented at global, regional and national levels with over 100 countries Includes analyses, summary tables, predicted rankings, various charts/graphs and the full dataset of forecasts
Coverage Includes forecasts for 113 country markets Representing 86% of the global traffic recorded in the 2016 World Airport Traffic Report (WATR) Fully calibrated to the latest data and adjusted to remain self-consistent all the way down to 2040 WATF 2017-2040 coverage by region Region Number of countries % Passenger traffic covered Africa 24 91.7% Asia-Pacific 20 72.2% Europe 40 92.5% Latin America-Caribbean 17 86.4% Middle East 10 89.3% North America 2 97.7% World 113 85.9%
Model selection Short term Primarily time series methods Decomposition models; Exponential smoothing; Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA); Model selection based on crossvalidation Medium and Long term Primarily causal methods Linear regression; Log-linear, Linear-log, Log-log; Trend projection; Kenza model; ACI Guide to World Airport Traffic Forecasts
25 20 Forecasted ratio of international to domestic passenger traffic (2006-2040) Passenger traffic will double within 15 years Approximate point of parity between international and domestic traffic 1.00 Passengers (billions) 15 10 International traffic 74% of domestic traffic 0.74 International traffic 90% the size of domestic traffic 0.90 5 0.64 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Domestic passengers International passengers
Passengers (billions) 25 20 15 10 Forecasted ratio of passengers in emerging vs advanced economies (2006-2040) The emerging-to-advanced ratio is currently 80% Currently emerging markets predicted to surpass advanced ones after 2022 The aviation market of currently emerging economies will be 1.6 times that of advanced economies 5 - Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies 10
Aviation s center of gravity moves eastward Top 10 Countries 2015-2040 Total passenger traffic: Top 10 countries Rank 2015 2016 2040 1 USA USA China 2 China China USA 3 Japan Japan India 4 UK UK Indonesia 5 Germany India UAE 6 Brazil Spain Vietnam 7 India Germany Japan 8 Spain Brazil UK 9 Turkey Indonesia Thailand 10 France Turkey Brazil
Contribution to 2016-2040 forecasted global growth 10.8% +1.7 B NAM LAC 10.0% +1.5 B EUR 15.3% +2.2 B MEA 10.6% +1.5 B 51.9% 1.4% +208 M AFR ASP +7.6 B World 2016-2040 passengers +14.6 billion
Summary - World Airport Traffic Forecast Supply versus demand driven forecasts; ACI world forecasts: Macro, demand driven; Passenger traffic doubles in 15 years; Parity between international and domestic traffic in 2040; Majority of traffic in currently emerging economies by 2022; ASP major contributor for forecasted global growth;
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