Forecast and Overview DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Overall goals of the (MPR): Work with DEN to refine the preferred airport development plan to guide the development over an approximate 25-year planning horizon (24) Revalidation of the development concept for DEN as shown in the Master Plan Update from 211 Update the inventory, forecast, facility requirements, demand triggers, and implementation plan Balance facility needs with consideration of financial impacts to users, flexibility to accommodate various changes, and consistency with the City s and DEN s Strategic Plan 2
Forecast Update A forecast of activity through 24 is being prepared as part of the MPR MPR forecast is being developed to account for industry and economic changes that are likely to affect DEN: United Airlines recent re-banking of its DEN hub Southwest Airlines growth Frontier Airlines evolving business model and capacity reduction at DEN Airline industry consolidation Increase in load factors and average seats per aircraft Recovery of passenger demand after the Great Recession 3
Forecast Process Enplaned Passengers Steps for high-level enplaned passenger forecast (short-term 215-216): Compiled DEN month-by-month schedule detail by airline for 214, 215, and 216 (available through July 216) Matched historical airport activity data (available through July 215) to airline schedule data Used historical performance and trends to project activity for August 215 through December 216 by airline 4
Forecast Process Enplaned Passengers Steps for high-level enplaned passenger forecast (long-term 217-24): Segmented historical passenger traffic served by DEN International and domestic origin and destination (O&D) passengers Connecting passengers Identified causal relationships between O&D passenger volumes and various socioeconomic data using regression analysis Used regression models representing causal relationships to forecast O&D passenger volumes through 24 Apportioned O&D passengers across airlines through 24 according to estimated 215 share - assumed constant airline market share of O&D passengers through 24 Identified historical ratios of connecting passengers to O&D passengers by airline and used 215 Airport data to determine how ratios have changed over time given recent carrier evolution at DEN Calculated connecting passenger volumes by airline in accordance with the ratios of connecting to O&D passengers (i.e., assumed airlines at DEN continue to operate similar to 215 characteristics) 5
Economic Inputs Considered CSA Gross Regional Product (millions) CSA Gross Regional Product (millions) CSA Personal Income 29 CSA Personal Income 29 $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ CSA Per Capita Personal Income CSA Per Capital Income CSA Population (millions) CSA Population (millions) 2, 15, 1, 5, - 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, - 6
Annual Passenger Comparison Historical 215 MPR 215 FAA TAF (Draft) 214 Blended Base 211 MPUS Update 26 MPUS 12 215 MPR forecast is approximately 1 years behind 26 MPUS forecast 26 MPUS 23: 94.1 MAP 215 MPR 24: 95.3 MAP 1 Annual Passengers (millions) 8 6 4 2 7 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 23 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 24 NOTE: TAF values exclude non-revenue passengers.
MPR Base Forecast: Annual Passengers 12 Annual Passengers (millions) 1 8 6 4 2 95.3 87.1 78.8 7.5 64.6 42.3 43.4 47.3 49.9 51.3 5.3 52. 52.9 53.2 52.6 53.5 53.5 57.3 59.4 61.3 63. 64.6 65.7 66.9 68.1 69.3 7.5 72.1 73.8 75.4 77.1 78.8 8.4 82.1 83.8 85.4 87.1 88.7 9.4 92. 93.7 95.3 8
MPR Base Forecast: Annual Passengers 12 215 MPR Originating and Destination 215 MPR Connecting Annual Passengers (millions) 1 8 6 4 2 42.3 19.5 22.8 U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 21-214 CAGR:.8% 214-235 CAGR: 2.% 43.4 19.4 24. 47.3 2.9 26.4 49.9 21.5 28.3 51.3 22.8 28.5 5.3 23.1 27.1 52. 24.2 27.8 52.9 24. 28.9 53.2 23.8 29.4 52.6 22. 3.5 53.5 22. 31.4 53.5 2.3 33.2 57.3 22.2 35.1 59.4 23. 36.4 61.3 23.8 37.5 63. 24.4 38.6 64.6 25. 39.6 65.7 25.5 4.3 66.9 25.9 41. 68.1 26.4 41.7 2.34% CAGR 69.3 26.8 42.4 7.5 27.3 43.1 72.1 27.9 44.2 73.8 28.6 45.2 75.4 29.2 46.2 77.1 29.9 47.2 78.8 3.5 48.3 8.4 31.2 49.3 82.1 31.8 5.3 83.8 32.5 51.3 85.4 33.1 52.3 87.1 33.7 53.4 88.7 34.4 54.4 9.4 35. 55.4 92. 35.6 56.4 93.7 36.3 57.4 95.3 36.9 58.4 9 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 23 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 24 CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate DEN 24-214 CAGR: 2.37%
MPR Base Forecast: Annual Passengers United Southwest Frontier Other U.S. Airlines Other Foreign Airlines 12 1 215-24 CAGR United Airlines: 2.47% Southwest Airlines: 2.44% Frontier Airlines: 1.71% Other Airlines: 2.22% Annual Passengers (millions) 8 6 4 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 23 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 24 1
MPR Base Forecast: Annual Passengers Domestic International Annual Passengers (millions) 12 1 8 6 4 2 215-24 CAGR Domestic: 2.35% International: 2.14% 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3. 3. 3.1 41. 41.8 45.4 47.7 49.1 48.3 5.1 51. 51.3 5.5 51.2 5.9 53.7 55.1 56.6 58.1 59.6 61.1 62.7 64.2 65.8 67.4 68.9 7.5 72.1 73.7 75.4 77. 78.6 8.2 81.8 83.3 84.9 86.5 88.1 89.6 91.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4. 4. 4.1 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 23 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 24 11
MPR Base Forecast: O&D vs. Connecting 215 MPR Originating and Destination 215 MPR Connecting 1% 9% 46.2% 44.8% 44.2% 43.2% 44.4% 46.% 46.5% 45.4% 44.7% 41.9% 41.2% 38.% 38.7% 38.7% 38.7% 38.7% 38.7% 38.7% 38.7% 38.7% 38.7% 38.7% 38.7% 8% 7% 6% 5% 53.8% 55.2% 55.8% 56.8% 55.6% 54.% 53.5% 54.6% 55.3% 58.1% 58.8% 62.% 61.3% 61.3% 61.3% 61.3% 61.3% 61.3% 61.3% 61.3% 61.3% 61.3% 61.3% 4% 3% 2% Original DIA plan: 45% O&D; 55% Connecting 211 MPUS: 63% O&D, 37% Connecting 1% % 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 23 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 24 12
MPR Base Forecast: Average Aircraft Seat Capacity 14 12 1 14.1 Increase in average seat capacity attributed to reduction in 5-seat regional jets and increase in larger narrowbody aircraft 13. 13.5 14. 15.7 16.3 14. 13.7 16.3 18.7 112.5 118. 117.9 118.5 Average Passenger Aircraft Seat Capacity 119.1 119.6 12.2 12.8 121.4 122. 122.6 123.1 123.7 124.3 124.9 125.4 126. 126.6 127.1 127.7 128.3 128.8 129.4 13. 13.5 131.1 131.6 8 6 4 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 23 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 13
MPR Base Forecast: Average Load Factor 1% 9% Load factors have increased over the past ten years which reflects airline capacity discipline. The highest average U.S. load factor on record is 86.8% (June 214). Load Factor 8% 7% 77.3% 79.7% 8.% 8.8% 8.9% 79.9% 81.6% 83.3% 84.1% 85.2% 87.7% 87.8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 23 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 24 14
Forecast Process Passenger Airline Operations Steps for high-level passenger airline operations forecast (short-term 215-216): Compiled DEN month-by-month schedule detail by airline for 214, 215, and 216 (available through July 216) Matched historical airport activity data (available through July 215) to airline schedule data Used historical performance and trends to project activity for August 215 through December 216 by airline Steps for high-level passenger airline operations forecast (long-term 217-24): Analyzed historical trends in operations performance at DEN by airline, separately for domestic and international flight segments Developed by-airline assumptions regarding future average aircraft size, load factor performance, and completion rates considering industry and airport-specific trends Applied assumptions to forecasts of passenger growth, resulting in airline-specific passenger operations in an unconstrained environment (assuming no airside or landside constraints) 15
MPR Base Forecast: Airline Operations United Southwest Frontier Other U.S. Airlines Other Foreign Airlines Annual Passenger Airline Operations (thousands) 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 215-24 CAGR United Airlines: 1.78% Southwest Airlines: 2.21% Frontier Airlines: 1.39% Other Airlines: 2.2% All Airlines: 1.89% 1.89% CAGR 1 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 23 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 16
Design Day Flight Schedules Design day flight schedules (DDFS) were developed for 215, 225, and 24. Table summarizes number of daily and peak rolling hour passengers and airline operations in the schedules. The selected design day (peak month average day) is Thursday, July 16, 215. This schedule is used as a base for future schedules. The peak month for international passengers is March. A design day flight schedule for international activity in March is pending. 17 215 22 1/ 225 23 1/ 235 1/ 24 Annual Passengers 53,473,368 64,59,889 7,45,629 78,781,316 87,13,33 95,35,327 Annual Airline Operations 517,449 613,278 653,128 713,741 771,83 826,553 Daily Deplaned Passengers 8,934 98,84 17,123 119,798 132,46 144,939 Terminating Passengers 51,547 61,881 67,328 75,374 83,411 91,332 Connecting Arriving Passengers 29,387 36,23 39,795 44,425 49,49 53,67 Arriving Seats 91,788 111,878 122,467 135,557 148,633 161,52 Enplaned Passengers 8,482 97,543 16,536 119,142 131,736 144,147 Originating Passengers 51,6 61,252 66,652 74,82 82,944 9,969 Connecting Departing Passengers 29,476 36,292 39,884 44,34 48,791 53,178 Departing Seats 92,95 112,172 122,754 135,826 148,884 161,754 Operations 1,549 1,846 1,969 2,151 2,326 2,491 Arriving Operations 773 921 983 1,74 1,162 1,244 Departing Operations 776 924 986 1,77 1,165 1,247 Peak Rolling Hour Deplaned Passengers 8,73 9,935 1,57 11,511 12,45 13,376 Terminating Passengers 5,135 5,69 5,982 6,497 7,12 7,519 Connecting Arriving Passengers 3,868 4,452 4,759 5,26 5,761 6,254 Enplaned Passengers 8,891 1,351 11,12 12,363 13,65 14,829 Originating Passengers 5,58 6,397 6,865 7,679 8,493 9,294 Connecting Departing Passengers 4,5 4,613 4,934 5,479 6,24 6,56 Operations 155 176 185 22 218 233 Arriving Operations 88 98 12 18 114 119 Departing Operations 9 12 17 115 123 13 Note: 1/ Design day activity for the years 22, 23 and 235 interpolated based on annual growth and design day flights schedules developed for 215, 225, and 24.
DDFS: Rolling Hour Passenger Airline Aircraft Departures 14 13 12 215 225 24 17 Passenger Airline Aircraft Departures 1 8 6 4 9 2 18
DDFS: Rolling Hour Passengers 215 225 24 28, 26,779 24, 2, 19,174 Passengers 16, 12, 15,283 8, 4, 19
DDFS: Rolling Hour Connecting Passengers 28, 215 225 24 24, 2, Connecting Passengers 16, 12, 11,722 8,786 8, 7,135 4, 2
DDFS: Rolling Hour Originating Passengers 28, 215 225 24 24, 2, Originating Passengers 16, 12, 8, 4, 9,294 6,865 5,58 21
DDFS: Rolling Hour Enplaned Passengers 28, 215 225 24 24, 2, Enplaned Passengers 16, 12, 8, 14,829 11,12 8,891 4, 22
Next Steps Use annual forecast and design day activity to generate facility requirements Determine capacity needs and timing Review 211 MPUS alternatives and define supplemental development concepts Evaluate and identify overall development concept for the Airport Prepare implementation plan Facilities Considered in MPR: Airfield Runways Taxiways Terminal Concourses Gates Landside Terminal curbsides Roadways Rental car Parking (public and employee) Support Facilities 23