The Air Travel Value Proposition: Safer, Cheaper, Greener, Quieter and Fast Updated November 1, 2017
U.S. Airline Industry Safety Has Improved Markedly From 1986- to -2015, NTSB Fatal Accident Rate Reduced 100 Percent Fatal Accidents per 10M Aircraft Departures in Scheduled Service 6.0 5.0 1-Year 5-Year 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1992 1996 2020 Source: A4A analysis of data from the National Transportation Safety Board (Tables 6 and 12) 2
Americans Have Seen Increases in the Average Price of Food, Shelter, Public Transportation and Entertainment Over The Past Two and a Half Decades Food & Public Transit Housing (Existing Home, $000) Movie Tickets Price Index: 1982-84 = 100 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 Food Transit +86% +87% $250 $225 $200 $175 $150 $125 $100 +142% $10 +105% $8 $6 $4 Baseball (MLB) Tickets $40 +255% $30 $20 $10 125 $75 $0 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, National Association of Relators, National Association of Theatre Owners, Team Marketing Report 3
Over the Past 26 Years, the Price of Purchasing Food, Taking the Bus/Train, or Going to the Movies/Ballpark Has Significantly Outpaced the Price of Taking a Trip by Air 400 Price Index: = 100 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 Airfare* Food Public Transit MLB Game Movie Ticket +255% +105% +87% +86% 125 100 +27% 75 1992 1996 2020 Source: A4A, BTS, FRB St. Louis, National Association of Theatre Owners, Team Marketing Report * Domestic round-trip average, including bag and change fees 4
Air Travel Is Not Expensive: See for Yourself It Costs Less Than You Think Source: Air Transport Association Advertisement, The Saturday Evening Post (March 22, 1941) 5
Boston-Los Angeles Air Travel, 75 Years After the Evening Post 9 Hours Faster, 90% Cheaper (in Real* Terms) Average Round-Trip BOS-LAX Airfare and One-Way Block Time 1941 Actual (15hrs 15mins, 12 stops) $281.56 1941 Inflation-Adjusted* $4,596.97 Actual (6hrs 15mins) $451.97 * Adjusted using constant dollars from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/cpi/#tables) Source: DOT Data Bank 1B via Diio Mi; Air Travel Is Not Expensive, The Saturday Evening Post (Mar. 22, 1941), p. 59; Campbell-Hill Aviation Group 6
Even Without Adjusting for Inflation, BOS-LAX Airfare Has Declined Materially Traffic in the Popular Corridor Has Risen Sharply $600 BOS-LAX Round-Trip Airfare (Current $) 1,700 BOS-LAX Daily O&D Passengers (Each Way) $500 $400 $300 $547 $382 $409 $481 $452 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 $200 1,100 $100 1,000 900 $0 2005 2015 800 Source: DOT Data Bank 1B (Passenger Origin-Destination [ O&D ] Survey) via Diio Mi 7
U.S. Airlines: Domestic Flight Operations Performance -2017* 4.0 Domestic Flight Cancellation Rate (%) Domestic On-Time Rate (%) 100 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Arrivals (A14) Departures (D0) 0.0 0 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics * January through August 8
U.S. Airlines: Domestic Customer Service Performance -2017* 8.0 Mishandled Bag Reports per 1,000 Pax 1.40 Involuntary Denied Boardings per 10,000 Pax 7.0 1.20 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 1.00 0.80 0.60 2.0 0.40 1.0 0.20 0.0 0.00 2020 2020 Source: DOT Air Travel Consumer Report * January through August 9
The Share of Flights Arriving Early or on Schedule Has Risen Steadily Over the Past Few Decades, Whereas On-Time 0:15 and 0:30 Have Been Relatively Flat 100% 90% 80% 88.0% 81.4% 70% 60% 63.0% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0:00 0:15 0:30 10% 0% 1988 1992 1996 2020 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics 10
U.S. Airlines: Customer Complaints per 100,000 Passengers Enplaned Systemwide DOT Annual Rates: -2017* 3.0 2.98 2.5 2.48 2.0 2.11 1.90 1.5 1.0 0.5 1.59 1.26 1.03 0.84 0.79 0.66 0.74 0.86 1.08 1.22 0.71 0.74 0.89 0.87 1.37 1.13 0.97 1.20 1.18 1.42 1.13 1.38 1.52 1.50 0.0 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: DOT Air Travel Consumer Report * January through August 11
With Each Decade, U.S. Airline Fuel Efficiency Has Improved Up More Than 120% from 1978 to, More Than 30%; from to Revenue Ton Miles* Flown per Gallon 6.37 6.49 5.58 4.44 3.53 1.93 2.51 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 -1999-2009 -2015 Source: A4A and BTS, for all U.S. passenger and all-cargo airlines * An RTM is a single ton of payload (passengers or cargo) carried one mile in revenue service 12
Commercial Aviation Has Gotten Markedly Quieter From 1975-, the Number of U.S. Residents Exposed to Significant Aircraft Noise Fell 94% While Enplanements Rose 325%); 53% from - (Enplanements Rose 22%) 8.0 1,000 Millions of People 1 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Noise-Exposed Population (Left) Passenger Enplanements (Right) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Millions of Passengers 2-1975 1980 1985 1995 2005 2011 2013 2015-1. U.S. residents exposed to significant (65 db DNL) noise levels from all aviation operations within U.S. airspace 2. Passengers enplaned on U.S. and foreign flag carriers as captured in the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) 13
The Value Proposition for U.S. Air Travelers Is Alive and Well It s Safer, It s Greener, It s Quieter, It s ~80 Percent On-Time and It s Still a Bargain Index ( = 100) 180 160 Fuel Efficiency 140 120 100 On-Time 80 60 Real Fares (incl. Fees) 40 20 0 Noise Safety Risk* 1992 1996 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 * 5-year-moving-average fatal accident rate for U.S. air carriers operating under 14 CFR 121 scheduled service 14
www.