Edmonton Real Estate Forum On Solid Footing Shaw Conference Centre May 10, 2012 Mario Lefebvre Director, Centre for Municipal Studies lefebvre@conferenceboard.ca
Uneven Growth in Global Economy (per cent change, real GDP) 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 Japan E.U. North America 2011 2012 2013 Latin America Asia Pacific Asia Pacific (excl Japan) Source: Consensus Economics.
U.S. Labour Market (Change in U.S. Employment, 000s) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 -400-500 -600-700 -800-900 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. Real GDP (per cent change) 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 13 Sources: BEA; CBoC.
500 250 0-250 -500-750 -1,000-1,250-1,500 U.S. Federal Deficit (NIPA basis, $billions) Sources: CBO; CBoC.
Raw Materials Price Index (per cent change) 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada
1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 The Loonie and the Oil Price WTI $US, $US/$C Dollar (left) Oil Price (right) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 130 115 100 85 70 55 40 25 10 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; U.S. EIA; Statistics Canada.
60,000 50,000 U.S. and Canada s GDP per capita (in current CAD$) U.S. Canada 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Sources: CBoC, Statistics Canada; BEA..
Interest Rates (90-Day T-Bill) Quarterly 1999 15 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Canada 2.0 1.0 0.0 U.S. 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; BEA; Statistics Canada.
Federal and Provincial Gov t Balances (as a Share of GDP 2011-12) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; various government budgets.
Federal and Provincial Gov t Debt (as a Share of GDP 2011-12) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; various government budgets.
Real GDP Growth Rate Canada 2003 13 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Edmonton Outlook: Highlights Notwithstanding a decline in the first quarter of this year, employment has rebounded sharply. Continued strong oil prices support activities in the oil sands and, in turn, in Edmonton s manufacturing sector, which is forecast to grow vigorously. Following a large contraction, the housing market has recovered and appears on sound footing. Continued healthy population growth will support consumer spending.
Energy Prices (US$) January 1995 to March 2012 145 125 Natural Gas Oil 15.0 13.0 105 11.0 85 9.0 65 7.0 45 5.0 25 3.0 5 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 1.0 Source: Statistics Canada.
Labour Market Edmonton (1996-2012) 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 Employment (000s) Unemployment Rate 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Source: Statistics Canada.
Employment Growth Edmonton (2004 13) 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Unemployment Rate Edmonton (2004 13) 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Disposable Income Growth Edmonton (2004 13) 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Retail Sales Growth Edmonton (2004 13) 15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0-3.0-6.0-9.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Population Growth Edmonton (1988 2016) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12f 14f 16f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Housing Starts Edmonton (2004 13) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC.
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Edmonton (1995 2012) 120 100 Seller s Market 80 60 40 20 0 Balanced Market Buyer s Market 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Canadian Real Estate Association.
Existing Home Price, New Housing Price Index Edmonton (1995-2012) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 Existing New 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association; Statistics Canada..
Non-Residential Building Permits Edmonton (millions $) 250 200 150 100 50 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Goods Output Growth Edmonton (2004 13) 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
15.0 10.0 Manufacturing Output Growth Edmonton (2004 13) 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Construction Output Growth Edmonton (2004 13) 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0-30.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Services Output Growth Edmonton (2004 13) 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Wholesale and Retail Trade 15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0-3.0-6.0-9.0 Output Growth Edmonton (2004 13) 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Real GDP Growth Edmonton (2004 13) 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Edmonton vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2001-2010) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Edmonton Québec Halifax Ott-Gat Toronto Montréal Hamilton Source : The Conference Board of Canada.
Edmonton vs. West (Real GDP Growth, 2001-2010) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Edmonton Saskatoon Calgary Vancouver Victoria Regina Winnipeg Source : The Conference Board of Canada.
Edmonton vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2011) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Edmonton Halifax Toronto Québec Hamilton Montreal Ott-Gat Source : The Conference Board of Canada.
Edmonton vs. West (Real GDP Growth, 2011) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Regina Saskatoon Edmonton Vancouver Calgary Winnipeg Victoria Source : The Conference Board of Canada.
Edmonton vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2012) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Edmonton Toronto Halifax Québec Hamilton Montreal Ott-Gat Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Edmonton vs. West (Real GDP Growth, 2012) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Saskatoon Calgary Edmonton Regina Vancouver Winnipeg Victoria Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Edmonton vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2013-16) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Edmonton Toronto Hamilton Halifax Montreal Quebec Ott-Gat Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Edmonton vs. West (Real GDP Growth, 2013-16) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Calgary Edmonton Saskatoon Vancouver Regina Winnipeg Victoria Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
The Conference Board of Canada