Ottawa-Gatineau s Economic Outlook Slow Growth, but Growth Nonetheless Mario Lefebvre Director, Centre for Municipal Studies The Ottawa Real Estate Forum October 11, 2012
Canadian Outlook The Canadian economy has rebounded nicely from the 2008-09 recession. The job level is now greater than its pre-recession peak and our commodities are in high-demand. But the recession has left scars, including government deficits. Moreover, consumers debt level has never been so high. Overall, a soft domestic economy and turbulent external environment will hold GDP growth to 2.2% in 2012 and 2.4% in 2013.
1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 The Loonie and the Oil Price WTI $US, $US/$C Dollar (left) Oil Price (right) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 130 115 100 85 70 55 40 25 10 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; U.S. EIA; Statistics Canada.
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0 Employment Growth Canada, 2003 13 266,000 jobs lost 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Interest Rates (90-Day T-Bill) Quarterly 1999 15 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Canada 2.0 1.0 0.0 U.S. 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; BEA; Statistics Canada.
Total Consumer & Mortgage Credit (Debt) as a Per Cent of Disposable Income Quarterly 1990Q1 to 2012Q1 Sources: Statistics Canada; Bank of Canada.
Mortgage and Consumer Debt Service (share of disposable income 1990:1 to 2012:2) 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Recession 90:2 91:1 Recession 08:4 09:2 Source: Statistics Canada.
5.0 Real Consumer Spending Growth Canada 2003 13 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Uneven Growth in Global Economy (% change, real GDP) 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 Japan EU North America 2011 2012 2013 Latin America Asia Pacific Asia Pacific (excl Japan) Source: Consensus Economics
Western Europe (per cent change, real GDP) 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1-0.4-0.9-1.4-1.9-2.4 2011 2012 2013 UK Spain Italy Germany France Source: Consensus Economics.
Federal and Provincial Gov t Balances (as a Share of GDP 2012-13) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; various government budgets.
Federal and Provincial Gov t Debt (as a Share of GDP 2012-13) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; various government budgets.
Real GDP Growth Rate Canada 2003 13 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Ottawa-Gatineau: Highlights A belt-tightening exercise by the federal government is never good news for the Ottawa-Gatineau economy. Job cuts by the federal government will limit the amount of newcomers to the area, putting a lid on housing demand. Prospects are brighter for the construction sector, particularly on the non-residential side of the industry.
Labour Market Ottawa-Gatineau (1996-2012) 750 700 Employment (000s) Unemployment Rate 10.0 9.0 650 600 550 500 8.0 7.0 6.0 450 5.0 400 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 4.0 Source: Statistics Canada.
Employment Growth Ottawa-Gatineau (2004 13) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Public Administration 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0 Employment Growth Ottawa-Gatineau (2004 13) 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Unemployment Rate Ottawa-Gatineau (2004 13) 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Disposable Income Growth Ottawa-Gatineau (2004 13) 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Retail Sales Growth Ottawa-Gatineau (2004 13) 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Ottawa (1995 2012) 100 80 Seller s Market 60 40 20 0 Balanced Market Buyer s Market 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Canadian Real Estate Association.
Existing Home Price, New Housing Price Index Ottawa-Gatineau (1996-2012) 370,000 320,000 270,000 220,000 170,000 120,000 Existing New 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Sources: Canadian Real Estate Association; Statistics Canada..
Population growth Ottawa-Gatineau (1988 2016) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12f 15f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Housing Starts Ottawa-Gatineau (2004 13) 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC.
Non-Residential Building Permits Ottawa-Gatineau (millions $, 3MMA) 150 130 110 90 70 50 30 10 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Construction Output Growth Ottawa-Gatineau (2004-13) 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Manufacturing Output Growth Ottawa-Gatineau (2004 13) 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Business Services Output Growth Ottawa-Gatineau (2004 13) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Public Administration Output 5.0 Growth Ottawa-Gatineau (2004 13) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Real GDP Growth Ottawa-Gatineau (2004 13) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Ottawa vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2012) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Hamilton Toronto Québec Halifax Montréal Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Ottawa vs. West (Real GDP Growth, 2012) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Edmonton Calgary Regina Vancouver Saskatoon Winnipeg Victoria Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Ottawa vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2013) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Toronto Hamilton Québec Halifax Montréal Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Ottawa vs. West (Real GDP Growth, 2013) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Calgary Saskatoon Edmonton Regina Vancouver Victoria Winnipeg Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Ottawa vs. East (Real GDP Average Annual Growth, 2014-16) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Toronto Hamilton Montréal Halifax Ottawa-Gatineau Québec Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Ottawa vs. West (Real GDP Average Annual Growth, 2014-16) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Calgary Edmonton Saskatoon Vancouver Regina Winnipeg Victoria Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
The Conference Board of Canada