ARP Forecast Review Critical Aircraft Data Sources <Audience> Kent Duffy FAA Office of Airports National Planning & Environmental Division, APP-400 December 14, 2015
Aviation Forecasts Airport sponsors generate aviation activity forecasts for use in defining scope and timing of airport development FAA is concerned with sponsor forecasts when used in FAA decision making, including: Key environmental issues (determination of Purpose and Need, noise, air quality, and land use analyses in an EA or EIS) Initial financial decisions including issuance of an LOI (Letter of Intent) and calculation of a BCA (Benefit Cost Analysis) Noise compatibility planning (Part 150) Determination of future Critical Design Aircraft Approval of development on an airport layout plan (ALP) 2
Draft AC: Critical Aircraft and Regular Use The most demanding aircraft type, or grouping of aircraft with similar characteristics, that make regular use of the airport Regular use is 500 annual operations, excluding touch and go operations An operation is either a takeoff or landing Regular use is used instead of substantial use Regular use is more representative of what this definition is trying to capture; i.e., planning and development for recurring and future activity at the airport Both itinerant and local operations count towards regular use Excludes touch-and-go operations Airport planning and design requires considering the specific safety and operational needs of all the aircraft which use the airfield Scheduled commercial service needs to meet regular use, as well Determining both an existing and future Critical Aircraft are required Grouping of aircraft with similar characteristics can be used to determine the Critical Aircraft 3
Data Sources: TFSMC: Traffic Flow Management System Counts Provides information on traffic counts by airport and/or by city pair Includes aircraft type and by hour of the day IFR flights captured by the FAA s enroute computers (95%+) Most VFR excluded Some low-altitude or non-radar IFR can also be excluded Source data are synthesized pilot flight plans and/or flights detected by radar Available at both non-towered and towered airports for IFR traffic Excellent source for validating larger aircraft in fleet (typically IFR) and critical aircraft Owned by ATO Systems Operations (AJR) National Offload Program (NOP) data is also available to airport by requesting it from ADO/ARP aspm.faa.gov 4 4
FAA Review of Sponsor Forecasts Forecast approval rests with FAA Airport District Office (ADO) / Regional Office FAA HQ may, however, review and provide recommendations as needed Items that FAA looks for during review Forecast based on latest available data Realistic assumptions Appropriate methodologies Forecasts provide justification for planning and development recommendations Forecasts are consistent the FAA Terminal Area Forecast Consistent with TAF? For all classes of airports, forecasts for total enplanements, based aircraft, and total operations are considered consistent with the TAF when the meet the following criterion: Five year period: Forecasts differ by less than 10% Ten year period: Forecasts differ by less than 15% Per ARP guidance: Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts, June 2008 5
HQ Review of Forecasts ADO/Region Submit to HQ when any of the following apply: Forecast is not consistent with the TAF Forecasts for projects that are expected to require an EIS or BCA At Region/ADO discretion: forecasts that have significant changes in fleet mix Exception: If the airport is a non-towered general aviation or reliever airport, and the five and ten-year forecasts do not exceed 200 based aircraft or 200,000 total annual operations, and the related development is not expected to require an EIS and/or BCA, then FAA Headquarters review is NOT required. If the forecast is not consistent with the TAF, differences must be resolved if the forecast is to be used in FAA decision making Review can take up to 45 days and need coordination with APO-100 6
Cities and metropolitan areas also evolve over the long-term **Cities / not Airports** Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Urban America: US Cities in the global economy, p.19, April 2012 7
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Critical Aircraft Determinations Existing Critical Aircraft: Documenting current aeronautical use of the airport: Operations count by aircraft make and model for the most recent 12-month period of activity available Revaluation can be required by ARP with issuance of AIP or PFC decision; initiation of master plan or update; new or updated ALP Future Critical Aircraft: Determination made using FAA-approved forecast Related but distinct from project justification given timeline in AIP Handbook Paragraph 3-12xx: The ADO has the option to determine that a project is justified based on existing activity at the airport or activity that is projected to be at the airport within the next five years. The ADO has the option to require the sponsor to submit letters of support from airport users if the justification is based on projected activity. The letter must describe the airport user s plans or anticipated activity by the most demanding airplane, or critical aircraft. Review: ARP (typically ADO) will review/approve both the existing and future Critical Aircraft determination 9 9
TFSMC Practical Notes Available reports: No login: Airport: Aggregate counts by date/aircraft type for top 2000 airports For other than top 2000 airports, must login and use city pairs report (this is a function of the system architecture to optimize for speed). Distributed OPSNET: hourly counts After login: Access: City Pair: includes Departure>Arrival pairs Run separate reports for A>D, and D>A, and combine in Excel FAA can request login; but contractors cannot (at present) 10 10
TFSMC Practical Notes By aircraft type, the counts often differ between arrivals and departures Typically, this is because of aircraft that opt to file IFR for arrival, but depart VFR (which would not be recorded by TFSMC) Can occur in the opposite direction at an airport where its easier to depart IFR to get into congested airspace, but then arrive VFR Differences tend to be less in magnitude with BizJet aircraft, which are nearly always flying IFR, and more pronounced with lighter GA aircraft Solution: Normalize counts by selecting the higher number of either arrivals or departures, and doubling it Example: Arrivals: 500 / Departures = 350. Calculated Ops: 500x2 = 1000 Essentially, this is an assumption that if an aircraft landed at an airport, it likely departed too 11 11
TFSMC: Example Data 12 12
Resources and Guidance FAA Terminal Area Forecast http://aspm.faa.gov/main/taf.asp Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport (APO Guidance) http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/forecasting/media/af1. doc Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts (FAA Airports Guidance) http://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/media/approval_local_forecasts_2 008.pdf FAA Forecast Review Checklist (for HQ review) http://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/media/request_approval_local_for ecasts_2008.pdf FAA Advisory Circular 150/5370-6B, Airport Master Plans (Ch. 7) http://www.faa.gov/airports/resources/advisory_circulars/media/150-5070- 6B/150_5070_6b_chg1.pdf ACRP Synthesis Report 2 Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting FAA Aerospace Forecasts http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/acrp/acrp_syn_002.pdf http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/aviation_forecasts/ 13