Population Composition, Geographic Distribution, and Natural Hazards: Vulnerability in the Coastal Regions of Puerto Rico

Population Composition, Geographic Distribution, and Natural Hazards: Vulnerability in the Coastal Regions of Puerto Rico

Researchers Havidán Rodríguez, Ph.D. (DRC-UDel) Walter Díaz, Ph. D. (CISA-UPRM) Aurelio Mercado, Ph. D. (POL-UPRM) Lead Graduate Student Jenniffer M. Santos (DRC-UDel) Undergraduate Students Meghan Gunyuzlu (DRC-UDel) José Santiago (CISA-UPRM) Jennifer Westfall (DRC-UDel) María V. Badillo (CISA-UPRM)

Exposure to Natural Hazards Natural hazards in Puerto Rico: Tropical storms and hurricanes Flooding Landslides Tsunamis Earthquakes Coastal Erosion

Objectives: To develop a vulnerability model: V = f(h,pv,sv) that will yield a useful summary index for individual and community vulnerability that can be validated against real world data on disaster losses in Puerto Rico

Objectives: Construct GIS based maps integrating current coastal flooding (due to hurricanes and tsunamis) maps and 2000 Census data. This will improve our understanding of how social, economic, and demographic factors contribute to the vulnerability of the population living within these areas.

Objectives: Develop GIS based coastal flooding vulnerability maps integrating current flood maps, census data on population characteristics, topographic information, road maps and satellite imagery. This information & data will be made available to emergency managers, planners, and other public officials throughout the island.

Vulnerability: the group of characteristics of a person or group that influences their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the impact of a natural hazard. (Wisner, B, T., et. al. 2004)

Physical Vulnerability in Puerto Rico Inadequate planning and zoning has led to a large number of persons living in areas susceptible to storm surge, tsunami, and flooding. Governmental policy has also contributed to increasing physical vulnerability by promoting high-rise construction projects along coastal areas and by allowing critical infrastructure to be located in known risk areas.

Physical Vulnerability in Puerto Rico Urban sprawl has resulted in increasing the number of individuals and property subject to flooding. About 1.4 million people in Puerto Rico reside in flood-prone areas Añasco, 1996 Añasco, 2000

Physical Vulnerability in Puerto Rico Development in hazard zones in Isabela, Puerto Rico A school built in an area susceptible to tsunamis Mayagüez, PR

Social Vulnerability Socio-economic and demographic characteristics also contribute to increasing disaster vulnerability Population nearly doubled between 1947 and 2000 Total Population, Puerto Rico, 1960-2000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Number of housing units in Puerto Rico 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Median Age in Puerto Rico (1960-2000) 35 30 25 20 18.5 21.6 24.6 28.4 32.1 15 10 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Population 65+ in Puerto Rico, 1950-2000 (%) 12 11.2 10 9.7 8 6.5 7.9 6 4 3.9 5.2 2 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Social Vulnerability 45% of families living in poverty (9.2% in the US) Income inequality Median annual income for families: $16,500 (vs. $44,000 for the United States) Labor force participation rate: 41% (64% in the US) Over 159,000 households are headed by females without husband present, 61% of them are poor.

Social Vulnerability 27% of the population has some type of disability (19% in the US) High proportion of uninsured or inadequately insured households 40% of population > 25 years old has not completed high school education (19% in the US) 24% of households do not have a working telephone (2.4% in the US) 28% of households have no cars available (10.3% in the US)

Procedure 1. Incorporate satellite imagery, census data and storm surge and tsunami flooding maps as separate layers into a GIS program. 2. Intersect census block maps and storm surge maps to create new layer consisting of census blocks within storm surge areas. 3. Compute the area of each of the resulting flood prone blocks.

Procedure 4. Compute the proportion of the original census block which is prone to surge flooding. 5. Use that proportion as a weight for computing estimates of persons and housing exposed to surge flooding.

Mapping Vulnerability

Mapping Vulnerability

Mapping Vulnerability, Critical Thinking

Storm Surge Findings Variable Total population Unweighted count 491,492 Weighted count 291,671 Population < 5 years of age Population > 64 years of age Female headed households with children Housing Units 37,960 55,811 19,845 207,386 22,883 33,428 12,516 124,576

Storm Surge Findings (unweighted) County Total pop Pop<5 Pop>65 Female headed hh w children Housing units Guaynabo 9,636 623 1,121 372 3,065 Humacao 10,186 794 978 395 5,659 Santa Isabel 9,870 919 1,011 360 3,647 Juana Díaz 9,241 762 830 323 3,267 Ponce 21,022 1,412 2,337 754 6,906 Cataño 25,746 2,114 2,496 1,221 8,986 Mayagüez 35,502 2,483 5,077 1,574 14,460 Carolina 53,164 3,438 7,024 1,794 24,301 Toa Baja 47,687 3,902 4,378 1,804 17,396 San Juan 102,378 8,165 12,845 5,815 45,202

Storm Surge Findings (unweighted) County Total pop Pop<5 Pop>65 Female headed hh w children Housing units Guaynabo 5,384 366 751 215 1,937 Humacao 7,438 602 637 330 3,925 Santa Isabel 7,781 714 762 291 2,869 Juana Díaz 7,882 637 740 277 2,778 Ponce 13,389 975 1,710 502 4,890 Cataño 16,909 1,377 1,547 812 5,996 Mayagüez 24,794 1,774 3,531 1,167 10,094 Carolina 38,318 2,338 5,315 1,231 19,043 Toa Baja 42,490 3,399 3,978 1,573 15,616 San Juan 65,365 5,591 7,705 4,004 26,962

Findings, indicators of vulnerability Puerto Rico Aguadilla Aguada Rincon Añasco Mayagüez Cabo Rojo Means (block group share) 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 Vulnerability Score 22 20 23 21 23 20 23 20 19 21 22.2 21.9 21 19 % of Population below Poverty 54.89 47.41 60.25 55.04 65.29 58.77 69.17 57.58 42.99 52.91 57.70 54.20 60.16 47.55 % of Renter Occupied Housing Units 30.17 31.07 34.63 33.64 17.12 19.52 18.86 19.27 13.85 20.03 39.68 41.78 21.06 21.58 % of Population w/ Low Education 47.60 38.83 50.10 43.16 59.64 47.13 66.15 48.02 42.77 47.55 49.63 44.51 58.55 45.91 % of Female Headed Households w/ Children 19.89 21.66 17.79 20.45 14.77 15.13 13.59 14.27 11.29 18.69 18.50 20.76 17.13 15.92 % Unemployed 20.77 20.34 25.25 24.77 20.63 22.02 19.64 20.10 13.55 24.33 20.56 24.56 21.36 18.61 % Population under 18 30.68 27.78 31.03 27.96 35.08 29.93 32.84 26.39 23.52 28.64 26.57 24.60 29.17 25.16 % Population above 65 11.79 12.86 8.89 11.89 7.64 9.58 11.14 12.87 6.50 10.78 12.74 15.01 12.43 14.80 % Population w/ Disabilities 23.67 32.04 26.40 32.38 26.76 29.82 37.19 32.08 17.35 36.99 22.00 30.49 23.64 30.79 % HU w/ no vehicle 32.96 31.07 33.60 32.92 30.27 26.33 32.07 27.90 20.88 29.18 35.26 36.89 28.54 26.51 % HU w/ no phone 32.98 23.68 42.90 29.03 44.68 29.73 50.02 25.53 32.87 33.74 31.86 24.83 36.55 23.56

Tsunami Preliminary Findings 20.00% 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Top-Ten: Percentage of Population Potentially Endangered Weighted by the Proportion of Block at Risk Mayaguez 19.25% 11.39% 9.95% 8.32% 8.29% Loiza Rincon Anasco Luquillo 7.52% 6.71% 6.05% 5.76% 5.76% Aguada Barceloneta Hatillo Arecibo Cabo Rojo Municipality Mayagüez Loíza Rincón Añasco Luquillo Aguada Barceloneta Hatillo Arecibo Cabo Rojo Amount of People At Risk 18,949 3,706 1,469 2,358 1,643 3,160 1,498 2,354 5,768 2,699

Impacts The data and infrastructure created played an important role in the NTHMP which resulted in Mayagüez being declared a Tsunami Ready Community. The project s data infrastructure has been used to develop sampling frames for research efforts related to coastal and marine management issues. The population data developed will be used to create the sampling frame for a USACE sponsored project on hurricane evacuation behavior. One master s thesis at the University of Delaware will have resulted from the project by the end of the current academic year.