Looking for the Capacity in NGATS

Looking for the Capacity in NGATS George L. Donohue, John Shortle and B. Jeddi Systems Engineering and Operations Research Center for Air Transportation Systems Research Volgenau School of Information Technology and Engineering NextGen Research on Aviation Capacity TRB January 2008 CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 2008

Outline What has Changed in 50 Years? Safety is the Underlying Capacity Constraint Current Safety Trends Airport Arrival Departure 90% CEP What are the Underlying Causes of Delay? Too Many Scheduled Flights into Too Few Runways Average Aircraft Gauge Too Small Stochastic Queuing Delays Too Inefficient 80-90% Max Capacity Safety and Economic Optimum What Does NGATS do for Safety? What Does NGATS do for Capacity? New Separation Standards in Terminal Airspace? Wake Vortex Separation Reduction? 2

What has Changed since 1947? Transonic vs. Subsonic Aircraft 40,000 ft vs. 20,000 ft Altitude Avionics: Flight Management Systems Required Navigation Perf. 0.1nm Required Time of Arrival Traffic Collision Avoidance System On the Aircraft! AOC Data Links Zero Visibility Landing Systems ATC radar Separation WHAT HAS NOT CHANGED Air Traffic Controllers talking to Pilots using WW II AM Radio Technology 3

Some Little Discussed Facts Modern Jet Aircraft Gate-to-Gate Travel Time is the Same or Longer than Propeller aircraft (DC-6 circa 1947) for many routes in NE Triangle Typical Jet Aircraft is 70% Faster and fly's 80% Higher Jet Aircraft can fly Over most bad weather Modern Commercial Jet Aircraft can Land in Very Low Visibility Airport Congestion Causes Most ATC Delays and Airline Schedule Padding Masks Real Gate-to-Gate Delay 4

Today s Lack of Predictability is Predictable! 5

Outline What has Changed in 50 Years? Safety is the Underlying Capacity Constraint Current Safety Trends Airport Arrival Departure 90% CEP What are the Underlying Causes of Delay? Too Many Scheduled Flights into Too Few Runways Average Aircraft Gauge Too Small Stochastic Queuing Delays Too Inefficient 80-90% Max Capacity Safety and economic Optimum What Does NGATS do for Safety? What Does NGATS do for Capacity? New Separation Standards in Terminal Airspace? Wake Vortex Separation Reduction? 6

Part 121 (Scheduled Commercial) Accident Rates are Increasing My filtered part-121 accidents Analysis from Zohreh Nazeri, PhD GMU 2007 7 c ount per million operations 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 y = 0.0533x + 1.0647 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Safety at Principle Network Nodes (i.e. Airports) is the Capacity Constraint Aircraft Safety Separation Time over the Runway Threshold sets the ATS Capacity Limits Critical Technical Parameters that Define Network Capacity: 8 Runway Occupancy Time (ROT) Landing Aircraft Inter-Arrival Time (IAT) Cap max = 90 sec IAT at 10-3 P SRO = 40 Arr/RW/Hr Queuing Delay Onset at ~ 80% = 32 Arr/RW/Hr limit for Predictable Performance

Data Analysis Process to Estimate: IAT, IAD and ROT pdf s Airplane i Threshold Airplane i+1 Runway Aircraft Type Threshold Leave Runway Heavy 10:23:14 10:24:04 Large 10:24:28 10:25:13 Large 10:26:16 10:27:12 Small 10:28:32 10:29:28......... 9 Col. Clint Haynie, USA PhD., 2002 Yue Xie, PhD. 2005

ROT vs. IAT to find Simultaneous Runway Occupancy (SRO) Probability: est to be ~ 2 / 1000 Runway Occupancy Time (sec) SRO Region Inter-Arrival Time (sec) 10 Detroit Metropolitan Airport (DTW) Freq (IAT < ROT) ~= 0.0016 in peak periods and 0.0007 overall (including non-peak periods - 1870 total samples) IMC: 1 / 669= 0.0015 in peak periods Correlation coefficient = 0.15 [Babak, Shortle and Sherry, 2006]

How Will NGATS change these Distributions? Runway Occupancy Time (sec) New Avionics & Procedures Existing Avionics and Slot Controls Inter-Arrival Time (sec) 11 Changes in FAA Procedures, Airport Slot Controls and New Avionics Will Improve BOTH Safety and Capacity

DTW CEP * 90% (2000-2003) Calculated Capacity (Today) and Actual Throughput Optimum Rate 140 Calculated Capacity - Today Arrivals per Hour 120 100 80 60 40 92,92 Facility Reported Rate - DTW (arrivals, departures per hr) Infrequent Most Frequent CEP 90% as a Measure of NAS Network Node Efficiency 20 Each symbol represents actual traffic during a single hour 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Departures per Hour Marginal Rate IFR Rate 140 140 120 120 Arrivals per Hour 100 80 60 40 76,92 Arrivals per Hour 100 80 60 40 70, 66 20 20 12 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Departures per Hour 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Departures per Hour * Contour of Equal Probability

EWR CEP 90% (2000-2003) Calculated Capacity (Today) and Actual Throughput A New Metric for BOTH Safety and Capacity Efficiency! Optimum Rate Arrivals per Hour 80 42, 42 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 Departures per Hour Calculated Capacity - Today Facility Reported Rate - EWR (arrivals, departures per hr) Infrequent Most Frequent Each symbol represents actual traffic during a single hour NGATS needs to shrink the 90% CEP Marginal Rate IFR Rate 80 80 Arrivals per Hour 60 40 20 40, 40 Arrivals per Hour 60 40 20 33, 33 13 0 0 20 40 60 80 Departures per Hour 0 0 20 40 60 80 Departures per Hour

Outline What has Changed in 50 Years? Safety is the Underlying Capacity Constraint Current Safety Trends Airport Arrival Departure 90% CEP What are the Underlying Causes of Delay? Too Many Scheduled Flights into Too Few Runways Average Aircraft Gauge Too Small Stochastic Queuing Delays Too Inefficient 80-90% Max Capacity Safety and economic Optimum What Does NGATS do for Safety? What Does NGATS do for Capacity? New Separation Standards in Terminal Airspace? Wake Vortex Separation Reduction? 14

Queuing Delays set the Practical Capacity Limitation set by Safety Separation Standards Lack of Schedule Synchronization and 90 second IAT generate Queuing Delays above about 80% of Maximum Runway Capacity Sched. Synch can reduce Delay by ~50% Expected Delay (number of slots) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Random arrivals Bank size = 3 Bank size = 5 Bank size = 10 Optimum bank size 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Number of Slots Filled (100 total) 15

NGATS Does Nothing about Too Many Flights on Small Aircraft: Passengers Pay the Price in Flight Delays and Cancellations JFK Summer 2007 Departures 25 FAA Announced Departure Rate (weekday AVG +/- 2) Airline's Scheduled Departures Flight Departures per 15 Minure Epoch 20 15 10 5 AVG ADR 0 5 AM 10 AM 3 PM 8 PM Midnight 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 24 Hours in 15 min. Epochs 16

JFK Average Delay Profile (2006) JFK Delay per Flight (minutes) 80 60 40 20 0-20 17-40 0 5 10 15 20 Time of Day (hour)

Delay Incurred at Major Airports Propagate Network Wide (Summer 2005) Total Delay Ordered by Arrival Delay at Outbound Destination. (minute) 1450000 1250000 1050000 850000 650000 450000 250000 50000-150000 -350000-550000 ATL ORD DFW EWR PHL MSP DTW DEN BOS JFK LGA IAH IAD CLT MCO DCA PHX MIA LAX LAS BWI SEA FLL CVG CLE MDW SFO TPA PIT STL SLC SAN MEM Total Delays (minute) PDX 20,000 Flight Hours Airport Delay Early-arrival Gap Inbound Delay Airborne Delay Arrival Delay at Outbound Dest. 18 34 OEP Airport [Ning Xu GMU 2007]

Air Transportation System is Designed to Move Passengers and Cargo Passenger Tier Performance = f (Vehicle Tier Performance, Passenger Factors i.e. Aircraft Gauge, Load Factor, Cancellations) 19 D. Wang GMU PhD 2007

Passenger Total Delay Airports 10 of the OEP-35 airports 50% Total EPTD some airports significantly impact Passenger Delay more than others (e.g. ORD, ATL, DFW and MCO) 50% 20 Closed Network of OEP35 Airport in 2004 D. Wang GMU PhD 2007

200 Routes generate 50% of Total Passenger Delay What Does NGATS Do for These Routes? 17% of the 1044 routes between OEP-35 airports 50% Total EPTD LGA, JFK, EWR, PHL connected Routes 11 out of top 20 routes 50% 21 Closed Network of OEP35 Airport in 2004 D. Wang GMU PhD 2007

Minimum Economic Cost is at ~90% Max. Capacity Cost to Nation's Economy ($B) $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 Sum of Both Costs ($B) Some Costs Approximated, Other Costs Not Included Slot Reductions Imposed at Top 35 Airports Costs Resulting From Reducing Airport Landing Slots Costs Resulting from Passenger Delays and Flight Cancellations $0 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5% 20.0% 22 Percent of Slots Withheld at Top 35 Airports Donohue and Shaver 2008

Summary on Capacity ~40 Arrival per Runway per Hour is current Safety Maximum ~32 Arrivals per Runway per Hour is ONSET of Queuing Delays & Optimum Predictability and Economic Utilization Rate How will NGATS Technology/Procedures Change This? Market Allocated Scheduled Landing/Departure times at 90% Max Capacity Will Be Required to Achieve Optimum Network Performance EVEN WITH NGATS! 23

Outline What has Changed in 50 Years? Safety is the Underlying Capacity Constraint Current Safety Trends Airport Arrival Departure 90% CEP What are the Underlying Causes of Delay? Too Many Scheduled Flights into Too Few Runways Average Aircraft Gauge Too Small What Does NGATS do for Safety? What Does NGATS do for Capacity? New Separation Standards in Terminal Airspace? Wake Vortex Separation Reduction? 24

IS NGATS Adequately addressing the Capacity related Safety Problems? What is the Wake Vortex Warning System? What is the ADS-B Back-up to GPS for aircraft without Inertial Guidance? ADS-B (out), 4-D trajectories, RNP-0.1 Good for Airline Fuel Efficiency but NOT ENOUGH for Increasing System Network Capacity! How will Aircraft Separation in Terminal Airspace and on the Runways be REDUCED by X3? Closely Spaced, Fully-coupled Autopilot Formation Landings with 2 Lane Runways? Can Closely Spaced Airports be Cross-linked with Runway Independent Air Transport (MegaPlex System Network Nodes)? New Generation of Heavy Lift Helicopters? 25

Outline What has Changed in 50 Years? Safety is the Underlying Capacity Constraint Current Safety Trends Airport Arrival Departure 90% CEP What are the Underlying Causes of Delay? Too Many Scheduled Flights into Too Few Runways Average Aircraft Gauge Too Small What Does NGATS do for Safety? What Does NGATS do for Capacity? New Separation Standards in Terminal Airspace? Wake Vortex Separation Reduction? 26

The Predicted Growth in Aviation Demand is based on Passenger Demand NOT Aircraft Operations 27 Aircraft Gauge, Schedule Synchronization and Network Load Balancing will Be Required Annual Combinatorial Clock Slot Auctions? Larger Aircraft will be required to meet X2 or X3 demand Business Jet and VLJ Air Taxi Service will emerge to compete with Commercial aviation due to current System Failure May not be able to put the Geni back in the Bottle Environmental Implications? New Aircraft (e.g. B 787) should be Environmentally Friendly (Emissions/passenger/mi.?) US airlines are not currently ordering them due to poor financial position New Public Policy will be needed to Deal with these Complex Adaptive System Problems NEXTGEN System not addressing these issues

Center for Air Transportation System Research Publications and Information http://catsr.ite.gmu.edu Other Useful Web Sites http://mytravelrights.com http://gao.gov http://www.airconsumer.ost.dot.gov 28

BACKUP Material 29

Trends for Incidents Associated with Accidents Trends of the factors in incident databases Pilot factors decreasing Aircraft factors slowly decreasing ATC factors increasing Analysis from Zohreh Nazeri, PhD GMU 2007 30 count per million operations count per million operations Pilot primary factors in ASRS reports 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 50 40 30 20 10 0 y = -7.1868x + 123.33 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ATC primary factors in ASRS reports 1995 1996 y = 0.0824x + 29.716 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 count per million operations Aircraft primary factors in ASRS reports 1000 800 600 400 200 count per million operations 0 1995 1996 y = -3.8007x + 683.79 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ATC incidents in FAA/OED data, Terminal 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006 y = 1.4581x + 18.118 95 96 97 98 99 00 ;01 02 03 04

ATC factors Communication Errors Top complexity factors associated with ATC factors: number of aircraft in airspace -- airspace design runway configuration -- controller experience 31 % comm errors Top-10 traffic complexity factors associated w ith communcation errors 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% other blank #a/c, other #a/c airspace, #a/c, other rwy config, other airspace, other #a/c, experience, other These factors will get worse over time: airspace #a/c, rwy config air transportation is projected to grow for the next 10 years majority of controllers will retire within next few years Analysis from Zohreh Nazeri, PhD GMU 2007

32 Aircraft factors Flight Control System problems growing Other aircraft factors decreasing 0.3 0.2 0.1 0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.7 Growth of aircraft problems in SDRS data 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Aircraft flight control system problems Flight Control System Nacelle/Pylon attachment Collision Avoidance System Wing y = 0.4037x - 0.2704 Compressor Assembly Landing Gear trend line slop count per million operations 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Analysis from Zohreh Nazeri, PhD GMU 2007

FAA: 2 Separate Functions with an Inherent Conflict of Interest A Safety Regulatory Agency Airlines Aircraft Manufactures An Air Traffic Management Operator Safety Oversight of ITSELF Many Industrialized Nations have Separated this Function from the Gov t Oversight Agency Australia, Canada, Germany, New Zealand, United Kingdom, etc. 33

My Opinion on WHY FAA has and Will Continue to Fail FAA Organization, Culture and Engineering Expertise is Totally Inadequate to the Task of Designing, Acquiring and Maintaining a Modern Telecommunications System Exhibits Monopolist Behavior Not Held Accountable! It is NOT in the Self Interest of a Wealthy, and Politically Powerful Union (NATCA) that has: Total job Security (civil service protection) Ability to Directly Lobby with the Public and Congress VERY HIGH PAY and Wealthy PAC (some >$200,000/yr) Short Work Hours (< 5 hours/day) Low Educational Entrance Requirements (High School) No Accountability for Poor System Performance 34

EWR Free-Market Fleet Mix Appears to be Far from Optimum 35

36 Summary of European Passenger Bill of Rights - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4267095.stm Overbooked Flights Passengers can now get roughly double the existing compensation if they are bumped off a flight. Compensation must be paid immediately. These passengers must also be offered the choice of a refund, a flight back to their original point of departure, or an alternative flight to continue their journey. May also have rights to meals, refreshments, hotel accommodation if necessary even free e- mails, faxes or telephone calls. Cancelled Flights Offered a refund of your ticket, along with a free flight back to your initial point of departure, when relevant. Or, alternative transport to your final destination. Rights to meals, refreshments, hotel accommodation if necessary, even free e-mails or telephone calls. Airlines can only offer you a refund in the form of travel vouchers if you agree in writing Refunds may also be paid in cash, by bank transfer or cheque If the reason for your flight's cancellation is "within the airline's control", it must pay compensation. Compensation for cancellations must be paid within seven days. Delayed Flights Airline may be obliged to supply meals and refreshments, along with accommodation if an overnight stay is required. If the delay is for five hours or more, passengers are also entitled to a refund of their ticket with a free flight back to your initial point of departure if this is relevant.

Air Transportation is Characterized as a Complex Adaptive System (CAS) Fleet Attributes Fleet Costs Fleet Revenue Trips flown by fleet Effect on GDP Passenger Delays Market Clearing Airport Capacity Enroute Capacity Flight Delays & Cancellations Delays Offered Flights by Fleet Schedule Ticket price Effective Price Airline Profits Aircraft Fleets Active fleet Reference demand Baseline Demand Inconven ience Effective price by length of trip 37 Bengi Mezhepoglu, PhD in progress