TravelClick: Business Intelligence 2018 Lodging Outlook Sara Duggan Regional Vice President, Business Intelligence TravelClick 03/23/18
25,000+ Partners
25 283 Million $49 Billion 365 North America Markets Room Nights Annual Room Revenue Days in the future
2017 Q4 Wrap Up
2017 Q4 Customer Segmentation Transient Room Nights 3.5% 13.4% 24.8% Retail Discount 21.3% Brand.com 30.8% CRO 23.1% Negotiated Direct 35.2% Qualified Wholesale 17.8% 19.5% 10.6% GDS OTA 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Brand.com CRO Direct GDS OTA Wholesale Qualified Negotiated Discount Retail
2017 Q4 Channel Performance Transient Room Nights 30.6% % of Transient Var % vs LY Var % vs LY (Across All Markets) 19.4% 17.7% 21.2% 3.5% 1.7% 5.8% 10.5% 8.8% Brand.com Direct GDS CRO OTA -3.9%
2017 Q4 Loyalty vs. Non-Loyalty Performance % of Transient Room Nights 45% 40% Loyalty Non-Loyalty 39.3% 35% 30% 25% 60.7% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Brand.com GDS Direct CRO OTA
GDS Year over Year Performance 42 43 42 42 44 45 Hotel Bookings (In Millions) 49 47 48 48 42 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2017 Q4 Channel Performance Transient Average Daily Rate ADR $163 $155 $199 $178 Var % to LY $166 0.5% 1.4% 1.9% 0.3% 1.2% Brand.com Direct GDS CRO OTA
2017 Q4 Group Occupancy Atlanta Boston Charlotte Chicago Dallas Denver Detroit Honolulu Houston Indianapolis Los Angeles Miami Minneapolis St Paul New York Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix San Antonio San Diego San Francisco Seattle St Louis Tampa Toronto Washington DC Variance % versus Last Year -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% +5.2% As Of: March 1, 2018 Scope: Occupancy (Group Sold) Legend: Group Block Variance All Markets
2017 Q4 Segment Mix for Top 25 Markets Group Segmentation SMERF Government Association Corporate Top 10 Corporate Sub Segments 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 Change Training/Education 6.94% 7.68% 0.74% Technology 6.98% 7.45% 0.47% HealthCare 7.14% 7.23% 0.09% Financial/Banking 6.47% 6.71% 0.24% Manufacturing 5.31% 5.44% 0.13% Pharmaceutical 3.93% 3.89% -0.04% Travel 2.90% 2.50% -0.40% Insurance 2.47% 2.73% 0.26% Legal 2.52% 2.64% 0.12% Consulting 2.43% 2.60% 0.17% Top 10 Total 47.09% 48.87% 1.78% Other Corp Sub Segments 52.92% 51.15% -1.77% As Of: March 14, 2018 Scope: Segmentation of Top 25 Markets Top 10 Corporate Sub Segments 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 Change Corporate 65.38% 66.66% 1.28% Association 13.92% 12.89% (1.03%) Government 2.45% 2.53% 0.08% SMERF 18.25% 17.91% (0.34%) Source: Knowland
2018
Room Nights Var % to LY Nationally, business on the books for the coming 12 months is up 1.4% over same time last year 20,000,000 16,000,000 Top 25 North American Markets 50.00% 40.00% 12,000,000 30.00% 8,000,000 20.00% 4,000,000 10.00% 0 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Group Transient Var % to LY Full Yr Var % 0.00%
Room Nights 12 Month Outlook by Month 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 Current on the Books and Last Year Variance Future 12 Months As Of: March 1, 2018 Scope: Committed Occupancy (Group Block + Transient Reserved) Legend: TY Room Night LY Room Nights 5,000,000 0 03/18 04/18 05/18 06/18 07/18 08/18 09/18 10/18 11/18 12/18 01/19 02/19
Group & Transient both show occupancy growth while still holding strong on rate Room Nights ADR Group Transient Business Transient Leisure +0.4% +1.3% +1.4% +2.8% +4.7% +2.2% Negotiated, Retail Discount, Qualified, Wholesale Year over year variance % to same time last year for demand on the books for 2018 in top 25 North American markets
Group
2018 Q2 - Q4 Group Occupancy Outlook Variance % versus Last Year -30% -15% 0% 15% 30% Pace Variance % versus Last Year -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Atlanta Boston Charlotte Chicago Dallas Denver Detroit Honolulu Houston Indianapolis Los Angeles Miami Minneapolis St Paul New York Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix San Antonio San Diego San Francisco Seattle St Louis Tampa Toronto Washington DC +1.3% Atlanta Boston Charlotte Chicago Dallas Denver Detroit Honolulu Houston Indianapolis Los Angeles Miami Minneapolis St Paul New York Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix San Antonio San Diego San Francisco Seattle St Louis Tampa Toronto Washington DC +0.1% As Of: March 1, 2018 Scope: Occupancy (Group Block) Legend: Group Block Variance All Markets
Room Nights on the Books Percent Change From STLY Pace for the next 5 Years Group Occupancy Outlook 14,000,000 11,818,302 11,659,251 5.0% As Of: January 1, 2018 7,000,000 - (7,000,000) (14,000,000) 9,627,249 9,985,318 3.7% 7,764,570 7,496,696 5,888,542 6,017,318 2.2% 2 Years Out 3 Years Out 4 Years Out 5 Years Out -1.3% -3.4% 3.0% 1.0% -1.0% -3.0% -5.0% Scope: Occupancy (Group Block) Markets Included: Atlanta Charlotte Chicago Dallas Denver Hawaii Houston Indianapolis Los Angeles Miami Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix San Antonio San Francisco Seattle St. Louis Tampa Toronto Washington, DC STLY Current Percent Change Source: Knowland TAP Report
Transient
Transient Occupancy Outlook 2018 Q1 vs 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 Outlook* North America OCC ADR OCC ADR Transient 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% 2.0% Retail 5.8% 0.6% 0.5% 2.6% Negotiated -2.0% 1.2% -1.4% 2.4% Discount -0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 1.8% Qualified 8.2% 1.3% 8.0% 1.2% Wholesale 8.1% 0.2% -2.7% 1.5%
2018 Q2 Transient Occupancy Outlook Atlanta Boston Charlotte Chicago Dallas Denver Detroit Honolulu Houston Indianapolis Los Angeles Miami Minneapolis St Paul New York Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix San Antonio San Diego San Francisco Seattle St Louis Tampa Toronto Washington DC Variance % versus Last Year -30% -15% 0% 15% 30% +1.2% Atlanta Boston Charlotte Chicago Dallas Denver Detroit Honolulu Houston Indianapolis Los Angeles Miami Minneapolis St Paul New York Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix San Antonio San Diego San Francisco Seattle St Louis Tampa Toronto Washington DC Pace Variance % versus Last Year -5% 0% 5% -0.4% Legend: Transient Reserved Variance All Markets
2018 Q2 Channel Performance Transient Room Nights 36.2% % of Transient Var % vs LY Var % vs LY (Across All Markets) 19.3% 0.8% 7.4% 4.1% 11.3% 25.2% 9.2% -5.4% -6.2% Brand.com Direct GDS CRS OTA
2018 Q2 Channel Performance Transient Average Daily Rate ADR Var % to LY $194 $176 $245 $221 $215 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 1.0% 0.2% Brand.com Direct GDS CRS OTA
2018 Outlook The Knowland data indicates Corporate Group still growing. However, Individual Corporate Travel continues to decline. How are your sales teams adjusting their strategy to drive this mid-week business? Looking out 4 years, the Knowland data shows convention business is strong, excluding 2021. Larger big box hotels should monitor 2021 and consider a strategy to compensate for this potential gap. Although Brand.com continues to drive the majority of bookings, OTA growth YOY is significant. The ADR gap between these two channels continues to widen, will it actualize? Don t lose focus on cost per channel Loyal guest bookings continue to grow. They form the backbone of Brand.com s continued dominance in overall room night contribution Business on the books for 2018 is positive RevPAR is up - 4.4% Driven by a strong Occupancy base - 5.8% (Business 4.3% and Leisure 7.0%) ADR on the books is up 2% over last year
Sara Duggan March 23, 2018