M A S T E R O F C E R E M O N Y. ALFREDO BABUN ACHILA/Air Canada

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Transcription:

BIENVENIDOS WELCOME

M A S T E R O F C E R E M O N Y ALFREDO BABUN ACHILA/Air Canada

W E L C O M E B Y I A T A PETER CERDÁ REGIONAL VICE PRESIDENT, THE AMERICAS IATA

V I D E O

T H E M A G I C O F A V I A T I O N ALEXANDRE DE JUNIAC DIRECTOR GENERAL & CEO IATA

W E L C O M E T O C H I L E GLORIA HUTT MINISTRA MINISTERIO DE TRANSPORTES & COMUNICACIONES CHILE

T H E G O V E R N M E N T P E R S P E C T I V E O N A V I A T I O N GLORIA HUTT MINISTER OF TRANSPORT, CHILE GUILLERMO DIETRICH MINISTER OF TRANSPORT, ARGENTINA VIVIANA ENCINA CNN

P R E G U N T A S P A R A L O S P A N E L I S T A S? SLIDO.COM #IATAWOC G R O W I N G D E M A N D F O R G L O B A L C O N N E C T I V I T Y HOLGER PAULMANN SKY AIRLINE FERNANDO POITEVIN LATAM MICHAEL KERKLOH MUNICH AIRPORT EZEQUIEL BARRENECHEA AEROPUERTOS ANDINOS DEL PERU ALVARO GONZALEZ OPAIN CARLOS OZORES ICF

E C O N O M I C S T A T E O F T H E A I R L I N E I N D U S T R Y JAMES WILTSHIRE HEAD OF POLICY ANALYSIS, IATA

% of revenue Beneficios altos y estables a escala mundial 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Airline industry operating margin 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst and airline releases Unadjusted margin Margin adjusted to remove seasonality

% change over previous year % change over previous year Ciclo prolongado por macroeconomía favorable 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 Worldwide RPK growth and GDP growth Worldwide RPK growth World GDP growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IMF World Economic Outlook, IATA forecasts

Ciclo actual ya lleva 8 años 180 170 Worldwide RPK cycles, indexed to low point WE ARE HERE IN 2017 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1982-91 1991-01 2001-09 2009- Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IATA Statistics, IATA forecasts

US cents per tonne kilometer Tarifas subiendo, pero estables en términos reales 150 140 130 120 110 100 Yields including ancillaries & cargo revenues, nominal and inflation-adjusted 90 Yield 80 70 Inflation-adjusted yield 60 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, PaxIS+, Datastream, IATA forecasts

Subida de costos el principal desafío US$ per barrel % change over previous year 140.0 Jet fuel price and growth in unit costs 15.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Unit cost growth Jet fuel price 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0 Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst, Platts, IATA forecasts

% ATKs Factor de carga por encima del umbral de rentabilidad 71 69 Breakeven and achieved weight load factors Load factor achieved 67 65 63 61 59 Breakeven load factor 57 55 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IATA Statistics, IATA forecasts

EBIT margin, % revenue Capital productivity, revenue/invested capital, US$ Compañías sudando activos y mejorando márgenes Components of return on capital 10 EBIT margin 1.5 8 1.4 6 4 2 0 Capital productivity 1.3 1.2 1.1-2 1.0-4 0.9-6 0.8 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, McKinsey, The Airline Analyst, IATA forecasts

Otro año de beneficios sólidos en 2018 % revenues US$ billion 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0-3.0-6.0 Global commercial airline profitability EBIT margin Net post-tax profits 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IATA estimates and forecasts 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30

% revenues Diferencias entre regiones, pero cierta convergencia 16% EBIT margin by airline region of registration 14% 2016 2017 2018 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% N America Asia Pacific Europe L America Middle East Africa Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, The Airline Analyst, IATA forecasts

Pero amplia variación en beneficio por pasajero US$ Profit per passenger (US$) 20 18.10 16.32 16.67 2016 2017(e) 2018(f) 15 10 8.86 9.03 9.99 9.26 8.45 8.90 5 2.42 2.40 3.00 6.07 5.51 5.52 6.47 1.15 2.65 0-1.61-0.83-0.55-5 Nth America Latin America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Middle East Industry Source: IATA www.iata.org/economics 26

Mejorar la competitividad es clave Source: World Economic Forum www.iata.org/economics 27

Reducir costos y mejorar infraestructura Source: World Economic Forum www.iata.org/economics 28

Modelo de concesiones en América Latina es mejorable Source: ACI, FAA, IATA, ICAO www.iata.org/economics 29

Number of unique city-pairs US$/RTK in 2014US$ Consumidores son los grandes ganadores 22000 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Unique city-pairs and real transport costs Unique city pairs Real cost of air transport 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 Source: IATA Economics using data from SRS Analyser, ICAO, HIS. IATA forecasts

Million Average months before next trip Libertad comercial es mejor política pro-consumidor Passenger numbers and months before next trip for world population 4,500 Airline passengers 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 50 45 40 35 30 25 1,500 1,000 Number of months before average member of world population takes a flight 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20 15 Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics, UN, IATA forecasts

Resumen Industria en buen estado a nivel global, pero amplias variaciones regionales Amenazas incluyen: Macro populismo, proteccionismo y guerras comerciales; Costos falta de eficiencia en cadena de valor, impuestos; Regulación leyes que socavan modelo de negocios, impiden la innovación. América Latina ya tiene diversas desafíos para ganar en competitividad: Tasas e impuestos altos; Falta de capacidad en principales aeropuertos; Regulación contra-producente de protección al consumidor

Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 33

P R E G U N T A S P A R A L O S P A N E L I S T A S? SLIDO.COM #IATAWOC M A N A G I N G D I S R U P T I O N I N T H E R E G I O N ENRIQUE CUETO LATAM AIRLINES GROUP PEDRO HEILBRON COPA AIRLINES GERMÁN EFROMOVICH AVIANCA HOLDINGS MARIO DELL ACQUA AEROLÍNEAS ARGENTINAS MARTIN EURNEKIAN CORPORACIÓN AMÉRICA SEBASTIÁN AGUIRRE CNN

P R E G U N T A S P A R A L O S P A N E L I S T A S? SLIDO.COM #IATAWOC B I G D A T A & I N N O V A T I V E T E C H N O L O G Y TOM MAES LUFTHANSA GROUP ALEX DE GUNTEN HEICO DANIEL CARBAJAL INTERNET WORLD TRADE GROUP ALEX COVARRUBIAS SITA