THIS WAS NOT ARGENTINA S GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY DECADE Myths, Legends and Facts about Argentina Growth Patterns Marisa Wierny Director of National Accounts Bureau Argentina Ariel Coremberg Center of Studies of Productivity-ARKLEMS+LAND Project www.arklems.org 1
Argentina s Development Paradox: Instability and Wasted Human Capital 5 Nobel Prizes 98 Heads of Treasury 58 Presidents of Central Bank 48 Presidents of Argentina 6 Coups d'état 1 current peso = 10 12 *Peso Moneda Nacional 8 defaults
Stylized Facts: Continuous Shifts in Macroeconomic Regimes 1990-2001: Washington consensus Trade openness, Privatization, Deregulation and supply-side policies ICT + Spillovers FDI Convertibility-Nominal Anchor for Inflation Expectations 2002-2007 Tail winds from Commodity Price Booms Competitive real exchange rate and demand driven policies Income Redistribution, Social Safety Nets 2007-2015 Resource Curse and Dutch Disease Low Domestic Savings Sluggish K and Productivity 2 digit Inflation, top 3 at world level 4
CONSUMPTION BOOM, INVESTMENT BUST 3 World Inflation Price Controls Price Freeze of Public Utilities Restrictions on Exports and Imports Capital Flight Drainage of Central Bank Reserves FX Controls Growing FX Black Market.But 2007 administration decided to hide inflation by intervening CPI and National Statistics Institute (INDEC)/ Pandora Box Effects
Pandora Box Effects of Politically- Imposed Distortions on Statistics Meddling with the CPI as well as all Statistics and Surveys Manufacturing, Services and Households surveys: unemployment, poverty rate (as Nordic countries vs 30%), Trade: surplus instead of deficit And GDP: Far from SNA, far from LAC
45% 506% 40% 35% 133% 39% 30% 25% 20% Accumulated variation since dic06 26% 23% 25% 22% 27% 27% 24% 27% 15% 12% 11% 15% 10% 5% 12% 10% 8% 7% 8% 11% 10% 11% 11% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 GB CPI INDEC
60 50 50.9 40 42.3 30 36.4 29.2 28.3 25 23.9 28.2 24.7 26.2 27.4 28.7 29.0 20 10 0 22.0 16.6 13.6 11.0 7.4 6.0 4.7 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 UCA INDEC
6.9 8.4 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 INDEC Own Estimates dic-14
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 85,000 75,000 65,000 55,000 45,000 35,000 25,000 Exports INDEC Trade balance - INDEC Imports Exports- Customs Trade balance- Customs 15,000 5,000-5,000
Official Focus and Myth of Argentina s Growth during Commodity Prices Boom Argentine GDP growth was the highest growth of its history (Chinese rates). The Highest Growth Myth Argentina was the Growth champion of Latin America. The Latin America s Growth Champion Myth.But 2007 administration decided to hide inflation by intervening CPI and National Statistics Institute (INDEC)
MAIN ISSUE Measuring Argentina GDP Growth during commodities price boom: analyze and discuss methodologies, stylized facts and growth profile Recalculate GDP as per traditional Argentine National Accounts Methodology Reliable GDP and Productivity Diagnosis 15
STRUCTURE BACKGROUND AND FRAMEWORK OF HISTORICAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS OF ARGENTINA AND LAC MAIN RESULTS: LEVEL GAPS AND GROWTH GAPS: AGGREGATE AND BY INDUSTRY MYTHS, LEGENDS AND TYRANNY OF NUMBERS METHODOLOGICAL MYTH HIGHEST GROWTH IN HISTORY MYTH LATIN AMERICA GROWTH CHAMPION MYTH SUSTAINABLE GROWTH MYTH (effects of GDP manipulation on Source of Growth and TFP
BACKGROUND National Accounts in Argentina: from 1930s to last Reliable 93 Base year + I-O 97+ Argentina was one of the regional leaders in terms of statistics Measuring Argentina s GDP Growth: From Myths To Facts World Economics, the Journal of Current Economic Analysis and Policy
Main Methodological Aspects Recalculate GDP volume index as SNA Ar, not the desire GDP: vrg. ex. Productivity of services or quality changes of outputs Taking into account these traditional methodology and similar data sources as SNA Ar (1999) with published series today at very high detail level (4-5 ISIC digit rev.3) from 1993 to test the reproduction and correlation of Activity Level with official figures without any econometric imputation 20
Main Methodological Aspects Traditional approach of quarterly GDP estimation from supply side in Argentina Exhaustiveness, representativeness and consistent criteria: capture the output volume by representative public and published indicators (chambers, official and private institutions) not INDEC surveys!! Avoiding non-representativeness of surveys and high inflation distortion problem Not all Surveys have enough representation of the global output by industry V.I. obtained through Deflated Values from Surveys could be distorted under High Inflation 21
Main Methodological Aspects Commodity Flow: Trade, Cargo Transport through IO coef. by industry Manufacturing Sector by industry by representative volume indicators Demand functions in some services: restaurants, non-regular passengers transport (from 2002 only income elasticity) Non-Market services by employment indicators: education, health, public administration, other services Only Financial Intermediation depends on CPI deflator 22
MAIN FINDINGS 23
MAIN RESULTS: + BIAS LEVEL GAP 220 200 180 160 INDEC ARKLEMS 140 120 100 80 60 1993 1994199519961997199819992000 200120022003200420052006 200720082009201020112012 201320142015
MYTH 1: METHODOLOGICAL MYTH LEVEL GAP DUE TO CPI. NO! Industry weighted Contribution to Argentina GDP gap TRADE FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION MANUFACTURING 20.4% 28.0% 27.9% OTHER SERVICES REAL STATE AND OTHER BUSINESS SERVICES 9.0% 8.2% HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS CONSTRUCTION ELECTRICITY, GAS AND WATER SUPPLY MINING AND QUARRYING TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION FISHING 4.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% AGRICULTURE&LIVESTOCK PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION -0.7% -1.6% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Industry Contribution to Argentina GDP gap (ratio between Official GDP and ARKLEMS reproducible GDP 2012 level -total GDP 2007-2012 Gap level=100% (12.2%).
MAIN RESULTS: +BIAS GROWTH GAP 10% 8% 8.4% 7.9% 2007-2012: 15,9% vs 29,4% 8.6% 8.7% 8.6% 6% 6.3% 6.2% 4% 4.1% 2% 1.0% 2.2% 0% -0.4% -2% Official ARKLEMS reproducible -3.1% -4% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MANUFACTURING SECTOR -2007-2012- ARKLEMS, 11.2% INDEC BASE 1993, 26.2% 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 27
WHOSALE AND RETAIL TRADE ARKLEMS, 14.1% INDEC BASE 1993, 42.2% 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 28
FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE ACTIVITIES ARKLEMS, 11.6% INDEC BASE 1993, 86.4% 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 29
MYTH 1: LEVEL AND GROWTH GAP DUE TO CPI: NO! +GAPS IN EVERY INDUSTRY THEORETICALLY MEASURED BY Volumen INDEX NOT CPI THERE IS ABANDONMENT OF TRADITIONAL METHOD AND SOURCES OF NAr LAST 25 YEARS) 30
MYTH 2: Highest GDP Growth in Country s History Development vs Growth vs Recovery Recovery: NBER (Burns-Mitchell) Growth Acceleration (Hausmann-Rodrik- Pritchett-Rostow) Sustainable but also Steady Growth: Between cyclical maxima and Intensive Growth Profile (Productivity)
300 250 1998-2015 3,2% 2% ARKLEMS INDEC 200 150 100 50 1990-1998 2002-2011 5,5% 7,1% 5,9% 2002-2007 8.8% 7.9% 2008-2015 3.7% 1.9% 2002-2015 6% 4.1% - 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1900 1903 1906 1909 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 13.5 13.0 1913-2014: 2,7% 1998-2015: 2% 12.5 12.0 11.5 1944-1951 29,7% 3,8% 1952-1958 34,5% 5,1% 1963-1974: 74,3% 5,2% 1976-1980 10,8% 2,6% 1980-1990 11,8% -2,% 1990-1998 53,1% 5,5% 1987-1990 -11,3% -3,9% Crisis 1998-2002 -17,6% -4,7% 11.0 10.5 10.0 1900-1913 124,6% 6,4% 1917-1929: 110,3% 6,4% 1932-1944: 57% 3,8% Crisis Global 1929-1932: -10,5% -3,6% 1917-1924 72% 8,1% 1959-1961 15,6% 7,5% 1963-1965 20,2% 9,6% 1990-1994 33% 7,4% ARKLEMS INDEC b1993 2002-2007 46,1% 7,9% 9.5 1er Guerra Mundial 1913-1917 -16,8% -4,5% RECOVERIES AT CHINESE RATES 9.0
I_93 IV_93 III_94 II_95 I_96 IV_96 III_97 II_98 I_99 IV_99 III_00 II_01 I_02 IV_02 III_03 II_04 I_05 IV_05 III_06 II_07 I_08 IV_08 III_09 II_10 I_11 IV_11 III_12 II_13 I_14 IV_14 580,000 530,000 480,000 HP ARKLEMS HP INDEC 430,000 380,000 330,000 280,000 230,000 34
MYTH 2: HIGHEST GROWTH IN COUNTRY S HISTORY NO! NO STRUCTURAL CHANGE OF MACRO GROWTH TREND 2% annual between cyclical peaks (1998-2015) lag behind historical trend 2,5% NO SUSTAINABLE GROWTH ACCELERATION 2007-2012: 15,9% VS INDEC 30% (1993 and 2004 base year) Recovery 2002-2007 = 1990-1998 = 5,5% annual: Standard Growth after big crises, high amplitude and volatility GDP cyclical behavior Chinese Rates: 1917-1924, 1959-1961, 1963-1965, 1990-1994, 2002-2007 35
MYTH 3: ARGENTINA WAS LATIN AMERICA S GROWTH CHAMPION: NO! Latin America GDP Growth, 2002-2012 (compound rate, %) Argentina INDEC b1993 Peru Argentina INDEC b2004 Uruguay Argentina ARKLEMS Ecuador Venezuela Colombia Chile Bolivia Paraguay LatinAmerica Brazil Mexico 28,0 60,6 58,8 57,7 55,0 54,6 49,0 46,0 42,1 99,1 87,2 87,1 77,4 71,1 Source: ARKLEMS and ECLAC 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 36
MYTH 3: ARGENTINA WAS LATIN AMERICA S GROWTH CHAMPION: NO! Argentina Venezuela Latin America GDP Growth, 1998-2002 (compound rate, %) Uruguay -8,12-18,36-17,69 Paraguay -2,86 Colombia 2,76 Latinamerica Ecuador Bolivia Brazil Peru Chile Mexico 6,41 6,83 7,28 8,76 9,34 9,54 11,41-20 -15-10 -5 0 5 10 15 37
MYTH 3: ARGENTINA WAS LATIN AMERICA S GROWTH CHAMPION: NO! Latin America GDP Growth, 1998-2012 (compound rate, %) Peru 104,6 Ecuador Chile Bolivia Argentina INDEC b1993 Colombia 62,5 62,0 71,6 69,7 65,9 Latinamerica Brazil Argentina INDEC b2004 55,4 54,6 52,7 Uruguay Venezuela Paraguay Mexico Argentina ARKLEMS Laspeyres93 Argentina ARKLEMS Tornquist 46,0 45,9 44,8 42,6 42,1 35,3 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 38
FACTS DENY MYTHS NO STRUCTURAL CHANGE OF GROWTH PROFILE SLUGGISH PRODUCTIVITY 39
MYTH 4: NO STRUCTURAL CHANGE OF GROWTH PROFILE 1950-2015 GDP (2.5%, 1,5% per capita) K (2.7% annual) L (1.6%) X: 4.6%. TFP (0.1%) 40
MYTH 4: NO STRUCTURAL CHANGE GROWTH PROFILE TFP (0.1%) 1950-2015 1987-1998: 1,0% (USA 2% with adj. So no gap shrinks) 1998-2015 (-0,6%) 41
115 TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY OF ARGENTINA 1993=100 110 105 100 95 90 85 Strict TFP (adj. by input utilisaton and labour quality) Apparent TFP1 (without any adj.) 80 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: ARKLEMS+LAND
-Annual contribution- ARGENTINA: SOURCE OF GDP GROWTH 6,0% 5,5% 5,0% 1,2% 4,2% 4,0% 3,0% 1,7% 0,2% 1,5% 2,0% 3,1% 1,2% 2,0% 0,9% 1,0% 2,5% 2,6% 1,8% 2,0% 0,0% -0,6% 0,0% -1,0% 1990-1998 2002-2015 1998-2015 1990-2015 Source: ARKLEMS+LAND CONTRIB K CONTRIB L TFP GDP TORNQUIST
TFP OF LATIN AMERICA 1998-2012 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0 Labor Composition Raw Labor K ICT K non-ict TFP Source: TED, ARKLEMS+LAND
NEW MYTH WITHOUT RELIABLE BACKGROUND: 2004 NEW BASE YEAR OF OLD INDEC REBASEMENT KEEPS MANIPULATION 45
1. New CPInu and New Rebasement of GDP of old INDEC before 2015: Objective to evade wrong payment of Warrants and Keep hiding inflation 2. Rebasement Timeliness 2-3 years. This one: two days 3. Economic Census 2004 coverage less than Fiscal Surveys 4. GDP rebasement 20% at 2004 inconsistent with commodity flow method and +Bias of NOE 5. But CPI and GDP Rebasement keeps manipulation 46
16000 ARGENTINA GDP per capita 14000 12000 12,813 10000 8000 8303 6000 7399 4000 ARKLEMS 2000 INDEC 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
12% 10% 8% 8.7% 8.2% 8.0% 6.8% 9.5% 9.2% 9.3% 8.9% 8.4% 6.5% INDEC BASE 1993 INDEC BASE 2004 ARKLEMS 6% 4% 3.1% 4.4% 2.9% 2% 0% -2% -4% 1.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-0.5% -0.9% -3.4% -6% Did not Take into Account Crisis Change of Base year to avoid GDP WARRANT Did not Take into Account Crisis
MANUFACTURING SECTOR INDEC BASE 2004, 24.1% ARKLEMS, 11.2% INDEC BASE 1993, 26.2% 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 49
WHOSALE AND RETAIL TRADE INDEC BASE 2004, 39.5% ARKLEMS, 14.1% INDEC BASE 1993, 42.2% 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 50
FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE ACTIVITIES INDEC BASE 2004, 74.0% INDEC BASE 1993, 86.4% ARKLEMS, 11.6% 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 51
CONCLUSIONS Inflation in Argentina: denying instead of fighting Instead of changing economic policy or swap the bonds with another clauses, Argentina open the Pandora box of manipulation with a Non-Schumpeterian Destruction of Statistical System. Why alternative CPI and GDP could exists: because Argentina was the historical regional leader in statistics. Argentine official GDP could not avoid the so-called Pandora Box effects, caused by the political intervention of official statistics 52
CONCLUSIONS The last decade did not show the highest GDP Growth in country s history Argentina was not Latin America s growth champion Argentina the worst long run GDP growth of Latin America Argentina did not take advantage from last commodity price boom No productivity gains in the long run Importance of not only sustainable but also low volatility and steady long run growth 53
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