Presented by John Parkinson Area Sales Director Air Service Potential between Africa and North America Miami, June 7 th, 2007
Airbus Corporate Update US-Africa Market Drivers Potential for Direct Services
Airbus product line spans the full jet market 13 models 7,243 aircraft sold 4,717 delivered 260 customers Data to end April 2007
Airbus Aircraft in Service in Africa 21% 3% 140 Number of Airbus aircraft in service 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: Airclaims (data as of end December for each year, passenger aircraft 100 seats and freighter aircraft), Airbus
72 A320 Family aircraft, 22 A310/A300 and 46 A330/A340s in operation 26 operators
Air Travel is Resilient to External Shocks World annual traffic Trillion RPKs Oil Crisis 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Asian Crisis +28% in air travel in last 5 years WTC Attack SARS 0.0 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Source: ICAO, Airbus estimate for 2006
GMF: 20 year demand for 22,663 passenger and freighter aircraft 15,330 single aisles 5,668 twin aisles 1,665 very large aircraft Market value of $2.6 trillion
Africa passenger total demand will be met by 618 new and 399 recycled aircraft Fleet size 1,000 1,058 800 Growth 587 618 new aircraft 72 billion US$ 600 400 471 Replaced 31 200 Recycled 399 0 Stay in service 2005 2025 41 Passenger aircraft demand 100 seats, freighter demand excluded
Single aisle and twin aisle aircraft will dominate deliveries but there is a market for large aircraft 450 400 Number of new aircraft delivered 390 350 300 250 200 199 150 100 50 0 29 Single-aisle Twin-aisle Large aircraft Passenger aircraft demand 100 seats, freighter demand excluded
Airbus corporate update US-Africa Market Drivers Potential for Direct Services
Air transport has a role in most people lives Share time with friends and family Discover new horizons and cultures Increase opportunities and business people want or need to fly
Africa has a growing share of international tourist arrivals Africa 3.3% Asia-Pacific 12.7% Americas 20.3% Source: World Tourism Organization Middle East 2.2% 1990 World total 457 millions but slower growth in American tourists Africa 0.8% Asia-Pacific 6.5% Americas 65.6% Middle East 0.6% 1990 US total 54 millions Europe 61.5% Europe 26.5% Asia-Pacific 20.0% Americas 16.1% Asia-Pacific 8.6% Americas 63.6% Africa 4.7% Middle East 4.9% 2006 World total 842 millions Africa 1.0% Middle East 4.9% 2006 US total 70 millions Europe 54.3% Europe 25.9%
A Comparison: Chinese Tourism South Africa ADS* in 2003 +69% (in 3 years) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Chinese tourists to South Africa 2002 2005 Kenya ADS* in 2004 +661% (in 3 years) 每天一个新感觉 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Chinese tourists to Kenya 2002 2005 *: Approved Destination Status
More than 1 million foreign-born Africans in the US CA OR WA NV ID AZ UT MT WY NM CO ND SD NE KS OK MN IIA MO AR WI IL MS IN TN MI AL KY OH GA WV SC PA VA NY MD NC VT NH ME NJ DE DC MA CT RI Over 100,000 50,000-100,000 TX LA FL 20,000-50,000 5,000-20,000 Less than 5,000 Total Foreign-Born Africans 1,013,880 (2002) Source: US Census Bureau
Increasing African immigration into the United States 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Yearly African immigrants African immigrants as share of total (%) 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Americans with first ancestry reported as African: 2,373,303 (2005) Source: US Department of Homeland Security 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
Sustained Economic and Consumer Spending Growth for Africa is Forecast 10% 8% GDP Growth 2006-2011 China India 6% Eastern Europe Africa Russia 4% Western Europe US Middle East Latin America 2% 0% Japan Australia 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Real Consumer Spending Growth 2006-2011 Bubble size proportional to real GDP at PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) in US$ Billion in 2011 Source: Global Insight, Airbus
Strong growth in North America - Africa trade over last 7 years Air Freight volume Air Freight value 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Thousands tons 5 4 3 2 1 0 Billion US$ 9 AAGR 1998-2004 8 +7.0% AAGR 7 1998-2004 6 +7.9% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Merge Global
Africa Traffic to grow faster than world average, especially to the Americas RPKs growth: average per annum 2006-2015 North America 8.6% Europe 5.5% CIS 6.3% Middle East 7.0% Asia-Pacific 6.9% Latin America 9.0% 7.6% Africa 20-year 2006-2015 2016-2025 growth 6.2% 4.7% 5.4% World 20-year 2006-2015 2016-2025 growth 5.3% 4.4% 4.8%
Africa is forecast to be the fastest growing North American International Market after Middle East RPKs growth: average per annum 2006-2015 CIS 7.0% Asia-Pacific 5.8% 2.8% Europe 4.5% Middle East 9.7% Africa 8.6% Latin America 5.1%
Airbus corporate update US-Africa Market Drivers Potential for Direct Services
Africa: Total Capacity grew by 153% since 1985 1985-2006 traffic growth in ASKs Africa Intra+Domestic: +74% Africa International: +182% Africa Total: +153% North America +80% Latin America +168% Europe +167% +74% Middle East +223% CIS +295% Asia-Pacific +463% Lowest increase for Africa-North America traffic flow since 1985 Source: September ASK traffic from OAG, Airbus
and by 37% since 2000 2000-2006 traffic growth in ASKs Africa Intra+Domestic: +30% Africa International: +38% Africa Total: +37% North America +1% Latin America +26% Europe +29% +30% Middle East +121% CIS +7% Asia-Pacific +50% No increase of Africa-North America traffic flow since 2000 Source: September ASK traffic from OAG, Airbus
Africa-North America Compared to other International African Markets 1976 1986 1996 2006 Africa- Europe Monthly ASKs*: 3.1 billion Monthly ASKs*: 4.9 billion Monthly ASKs*: 7.6 billion Monthly ASKs*: 13.6 billion Africa- Asia/Pacific Monthly ASKs*: 0.1 billion Monthly ASKs*: 0.3 billion Monthly ASKs*: 1.1 billion Monthly ASKs*: 1.7 billion Africa-North America Monthly ASKs*: 0.2 billion Monthly ASKs*: 0.3 billion Monthly ASKs*: 0.6 billion Monthly ASKs*: 1.1 billion Source: September traffic from OAG, Airbus *: Available Seat Kilometre
Recognition of Air Service Potential Open skies agreement between USA and African countries Cape Verde Madagascar Tanzania Namibia Burkina Faso Ghana Gambia Nigeria Morocco Rwanda Benin Senegal Uganda Gabon Ethiopia Mali Cameroon Chad Liberia 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 18 African countries have so far signed open skies agreements with USA
2006: Open Skies = Direct Services? Source: FAA, US DOT, OAG
2006: Open Skies = Direct Services? Open Skies 7% Source: FAA, US DOT, OAG
2006: Open Skies = Direct Services? Open Skies / FAA CAT1 30% Open Skies 7% Source: FAA, US DOT, OAG
2006: Open Skies = Direct Services? African Carriers US Carriers 92% 8% FAA CAT1 63% Open Skies / FAA CAT1 30% Open Skies 7% Source: FAA, US DOT, OAG
African carriers have continuously exceeded 90% of Africa - North America direct service Africa - North America direct service share of ASKs* (%) 100% Direct service by North American domiciliated airlines Direct service by African domiciliated airlines 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: September traffic from OAG, Airbus *: Available Seat Kilometre
Demand analysis Africa-North America scheduled traffic Passengers (2006) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 SOUTH AFRICA - USA EGYPT - USA MOROCCO - USA MOROCCO - CANADA SOUTH AFRICA - CANADA EGYPT - CANADA SENEGAL - USA KENYA - USA ETHIOPIA - USA TUNISIA - CANADA NIGERIA - USA ALGERIA - CANADA KENYA - CANADA GHANA - USA TANZANIA - USA CAPE VERDE - USA TUNISIA - USA CAMEROON - USA GHANA - CANADA UGANDA - USA NIGERIA - CANADA ETHIOPIA - CANADA TANZANIA - CANADA IVORY COST - USA ZAMBIA - USA ZIMBABWE - USA MALI - USA GAMBIA - USA SENEGAL - CANADA BOTSWANA - USA UGANDA - CANADA MALAWI - USA BURKINA FASO - USA DJIBOUTI - USA BENIN - USA MALI - CANADA SUDAN - CANADA ALL OTHERS Can fly direct service in 2006 Can not fly direct service in 2006 Up to 1 million pax travelling between Africa and North America in 2006 Source: IATA PAXis Origin/Destination 2006 database
Only 29% of Africa - North America demand flew point-to-point in 2006 Connecting somewhere else 49% (in Europe: 46% 432,000 pax) (in Middle East: 3% 28,000 pax) Point-to-point 29% (274,000 pax) Africa - North America demand (2006) 936,000 passengers Connecting in Africa and/or in North America 22% (202,000 pax) Source: IATA PAXis Origin/Destination 2006 database
Europe-Africa Load Factors at Historic High Yearly rolling average load factor 80% Load factor (%) 76% 72% 68% 64% Connecting through Europe increasingly difficult because of lack of available seats Source: AEA, Airbus
Conclusion Africa will enjoy strong economic and trade growth Sustained tourism development in the future Increasing social links between Africa and North America Africa - North America currently the least developed African International market Africa - North America traffic forecasted to grow at 8.6% per year over next 10 years Growing need for direct services Opportunity for African Airlines to develop new services
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