Intra-European Flights and Rail

Final Report Intra-European Flights and Rail Short Study Commissioned by Transport & Environment Brussels Contact Stephan Kritzinger Sven Altenburg Amadeus Barth # 28406 Berlin 28 February 2017

About Prognos Executive Director Christian Böllhoff President of the Supervisory Board Dr. Jan Giller Commercial Register Number Berlin HRB 87447 B Legal Form AG (Aktiengesellschaft) under Swiss Law Founded 1959 in Basel, Switzerland Field of Business Activity Prognos develops practical strategies for firms, organizations and public sector authorities across Europe on the basis of rigorous and objective analyses. Working Languages German, English, French Headquarters Other Locations Prognos AG Prognos AG Henric Petri-Strasse 9 Goethestrasse 85 4010 Basel Switzerland 10623 Berlin Germany Phone +41 61 3273-310 Phone +49 30 52 00 59-210 Fax +41 61 3273-300 Fax +49 30 52 00 59-201 Prognos AG Prognos AG Domshof 21 Résidence Palace, Block C 28195 Bremen Germany Rue de la Loi 155 Phone +49 421 51 70 46-510 1040 Brussels Belgium Fax +49 421 51 70 46-528 Phone +32 28089-947 Prognos AG Prognos AG Schwanenmarkt 21 Heinrich-von-Stephan-Str. 23 40213 Düsseldorf Germany 79100 Freiburg Germany Phone +49 211 91316-110 Phone +49 761 7661164-810 Fax +49 211 91316-141 Fax +49 761 7661164-820 Prognos AG Prognos AG Nymphenburger Strasse 14 (2. OG) Eberhardstrasse 12 80335 Germany 70173 Stuttgart Germany Phone +49 89 954 1586-710 Phone +49 711 3209-610 Fax +49 89 954 1586-719 Fax +49 711 3209-609 Web info@prognos.com www.prognos.com twitter.com/prognos_ag

Content 1 Background and Objectives 1 2 Methodology 3 2.1 Data Sources 3 2.2 Approach 4 3 Intra EU Flights and Alternative Rail Connections 7 3.1 Intra EU Flights 7 3.1.1 200 600 km 7 3.1.2 601 1,137 km 8 3.2 Alternative Rail Connections 9 3.2.1 200 600 km 9 3.2.2 601 1,137 km 10 3.3 Comparison of Travel Times 11 3.3.1 200 600 km 11 3.3.2 601 1,137 km 12 3.4 Operators 13 3.4.1 Rail Operators 200 600 km 13 3.4.2 Rail Operators 601 1,137 km 14 3.4.3 Aviation Operators 200 600 km 15 3.4.4 Aviation Operators 601 1,137 km 16 4 Top EU Passenger Rail Connections 17 4.1 200 600 km 17 4.2 601 1,137 km 18 I

1 Background and Objectives Passenger demand for aviation continues to grow, including for intra-eu journeys. This demand has partly been stimulated by cheap flights leading to an increase in the transport sector s greenhouse gas emissions. Advantages in travel time, ticket prices and reliability partly explains why environmentally friendly alternatives (i.e. train) have been unable to compete with aviation. One option for the transport sector to decarbonise, short haul flights should be substituted by this less carbon intensive mode, repectivly by train or other landbased modes of transport. Some 880 million passengers were carried by air in 2014 in the EU-28. The United Kingdom reported the highest number of air passengers in 2014, with 220 million or an average of 3.4 assengers per inhabitant (which was double the EU-28 average). Based on the latest data available (generally for 2014), there were 381 billion passenger-kilometres travelled on national railway networks of the EU-28. This figure was considerably higher than the 22 billion passenger-kilometres travelled on international journeys. Railway transport demand is still primarily domestic transport. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview on the most popular flight and rail journeys in EU-Europe in terms of passenger demand. This information will allow a better understanding of the present market shares and will aid in developing measures aimed at shifting shares of passengers from plane to train. The overview consists of the following scope of flight and air connections: Top 10 inter EU flight paths with the most passengers up to 600 km in distance (chapter 3.1.1) Top 10 inter EU flight paths with the most passengers between 600 and 1,137 km (chapter 3.1.2) Number of passengers traveling by rail for the routes listed above (chapter 3.2). Top 10 EU railway connections with the most passengers up to 600 km distance (chapter 4.1) Top 10 EU railway connections with the most passengers between 600 and 1,000 km (chapter 4.2). 1

Travel time comparisons for both 10 top EU flight paths are shown in chapter 3.3. Complementary to the ranking of flight and city-pairs the undertakings operating these services presently are listed in chapter 3.4. 2

2 Methodology 2.1 Data Sources Air Transport Air transport is comparably well documented. The main statistic is the Eurostat "Statistical pocketbook 2016" (Eurostat 2016), where in section 2.4 the "main intra-eu airport pairs" can be identified by using the number of passengers for 2014. Sources used: Cokasova (2003): Air-rail intermodality from the passenger perspective, Eurocontrol Research Centre. http://www.atmseminar.org/seminarcontent/seminar5/papers/p _123_SS.pdf Eurostat (2016): Statistical Pocket Book 2016. https://ec.europa.eu/transport/factsfundings/statistics/pocketbook-2016_en Eurostat (2017): Online Database. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database Flight Connections (2017): http://www.flightconnections.com/ SkyScanner (2017): www.skyscanner.com Rail Transport A comparable database does not exist for rail transport as the number of passengers travelling between distinct stations is not officially recorded. In contrast to the total number of railway passengers published in annual reports of railway undertakings, the number of long distance passenger transport from point to point is confidential as it is considered to be commercially sensitive information. So, the number of passengers on specific point-topoint-connections what is attempted in this short study can only be estimated by approximations. However, passenger data for some EU countries are reported or could be derived from national transport model data. If no specific demand figues were at hand, the number of trains circulating between the two cities, their capacities and the average occupancy rates were used to get a range of passengers travelling on the selected paths. 3

Sources used: Cokasova (2003): Air-rail intermodality from the passenger perspective, Eurocontrol Research Centre. http://www.atmseminar.org/seminarcontent/seminar5/papers/p _123_SS.pdf Deutsche Bahn (2017): Online Timetable. http://www.deutschebahn.com/de/start/ EEA European Environment Agency (2010): Train Occupancy Rates. http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-andmaps/figures/train-occupancy-rates EMISIA (2013): Transport data collection supporting the quantitative analysis of measures relating to transport and climate change (TRACCS). http://traccs.emisia.com/ Eurostat (2017): Online Database. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database Go Euro (2017): http://www.goeuro.com/ Intraplan Consult GmbH (2005): Origin-destination matrix [Verkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030: Personenverkehrsverflechtungsmatrix]. On behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Transport. Ministerio de Fomento de España (2014): OFE Observatorio del Ferrocarril en Enpaña. https://www.fomento.gob.es/ferrocarriles/obsferro/informe _OFE2014.pdf Sauter-Servaes, Thomas; Krautscheid, Thomas: Mythos Billigflieger systematischer Vergleich zeigt Preisvorteil der Bahn; In: Eisenbahntechnische Rundschau 2016, No 9, p. 2-5. 2.2 Approach Definition Rail and Air Transport EU flight paths: Flights from one international airfield to another international airfield. The passengers reported could be point-topoint travellers or passengers changing to, or coming from, a long haul flight. Rail connections Rail journeys from one city to another. Rail connections are either the same relations 4

by train as by plane or constitute a connection for which the flights are not in the Top 10 intra EU flights paths. Travel time Travel times were caculated by adding the process times (i.e. for boarding and time taken to move from the city center to the airport or the railway station) to the flight or train journey time. To note that EU flight paths as well as rail connections do not necessarily reflect the real origins and destinations of the passengers. Rail connections do not cover intermediate journeys between the start and the end. Example: The number of pasengers between Frankfurt Berlin do not contain passengers between Frankfurt and Kassel (a stop between both cities). They may include trips starting and/or ending beyond the start and the end (example: Mannheim Frankfurt Berlin). Reference Years Air transport: 2014 Rail transport: 2017 Air Passenger Demand Air passenger transport demand was adopted from the EUROSTAT Statistical Pocketbook 2016, section 2.4. Flight paths between 600 and 1,000 km were extended to 1,137 km due to the fact, that only 8 flight paths between 600 and 1,000 km could be found. Railway Passenger Demand The railway passenger demand figures presented in this report are largely based on own approximations and our professional judgement. Nevertheless, the magnitude of passengers and the order of intra-eu intercity journeys appear to be plausible. The reason for this approach is that railway undertakings are not obliged to reveal point-to-point railway passenger data. Thus, our figures are based on the following rationale: A gravity model was applied to establish a ranking of city-pairs with the highest attraction in EU-Europe. For this, data on population and economy as well as train supply conditions (travel time, frequence) were considered. More than 100 potential city-pairs were analysed. 5

The top 20 of this analysis were cross-checked by a qualitative assessment (comparison, consistency with other statistics, plausibility of order). After this assessment, the top 10 were retained for further calculation. In order to get the number of passengers for the top 10 destinations, a mix of approaches and sources was used: For all city-pairs involving German cities the numbers of the origin-destination matrix for the German Transport Master Plan 2004 (Base year Forecast 2025) published by the German Federal Ministry of Transport were adopted and interpolated for the year 2017. For the city-pair Barcelona Madrid statistical figures exist and were adopted. All other: Approximation by time tables (2017), the number of seats offered by the train type used on the selected route and an avererage occupancy rate (derived from the sources listed above for Italy and France or, if failure, based on professional judgements). Finally, a share of passengers travelling between the two reference points (own estimation) was taken as a basis (to exclude those passengers leaving the train in between). There are various underlying assumptions for calculating the number of passengers between the reference points of the selected connections. The most important are: If there were direct train connections between two cities, only the train connections with a maximum of one change were taken into account (those with no change and one change). If there was at least one change necessary, only connections with a maximum of two changes were considered and so forth. Only those train connections were considered, whose duration was not more than 20% of the fastest connection on a specific route. The number of passengers travelling between the two reference points (cities) is a function of the economic role of these cities, the travel time, the number of stops and the frequence. In order to secure the estimated figures, plausibility checks were undertaken for all connections analysed. 6

3 Intra EU Flights and Alternative Rail Connections 3.1 Intra EU Flights 3.1.1 200 600 km From To Passengers Flight 2014 in 1,000 Distance in km As the Crow Flies 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Toulouse Blagnac Madrid Barajas Catania Fontanarossa Franz-Josef-Strauß Frankfurt Airport Dublin Bhaile Átha Cliath Dusseldorf Düsseldorf Airport Heathrow Rome Fiumicino Edinburgh Edinburgh Airport Orly Barcelona El-Prat Rome Fiumicino Berlin Tegel Berlin Tegel Heathrow Franz-Josef-Strauß Amsterdam Schiphol Palermo Punta Raisi Heathrow 2,330.95 573 2,204.77 504 1,869.88 536 1,868.88 504 1,792.01 424 1,650.99 464 1,527.42 486 1,486.78 357 1,482.00 426 1,473.29 534 Sources: Eurostat (2016) and own calculation of the distances (based on a GIS-based analysis) 7

3.1.2 601 1,137 km From To Passengers Flight 2014 in 1,000 Distance in km As the Crow Flies 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Nice Côte d'azur Franz-Josef-Strauß Heathrow Barcelona El-Prat Heathrow Barcelona El-Prat Rome Fiumicino Madrid Barajas Stockholm Arlanda Barcelona El-Prat Orly Hamburg Fuhlsbüttel Frankfurt Airport Gatwick Franz-Josef-Strauß Charles de Gaulle Charles de Gaulle Orly Lulea Kallax Frankfurt Airport 2,072.14 686 1,757.02 612 1,506.83 637 1,274.12 1,137 1,178.41 917 1,138.66 830 1,134.50 1,105 1,023.30 1,052 1,020.60 693 1,019.10 1,092 Sources: Eurostat (2016) and own calculations of the distances (based on a GIS-based analysis) 8

3.2 Alternative Rail Connections 3.2.1 200 600 km From To Passengers Rail 2017 in 1,000 Connections Per Day Both Ways on 02/14/2017 1 2 3 4 Toulouse Matabiau Madrid Puerta de Atocha Catania Centrale 5 6 Dublin 7 8 9 10 Dusseldorf Rome Termini Edinburgh Gare de Lyon Gare Montparnasse Gare d Austerlitz Barcelona Sants Rome Termini Berlin Berlin Amsterdam Centraal/Zuid Palermo Centrale 390 28 3,900 42 3 8 340 50 500 66 - - 90 54 270 36 4 8 400 50 Sources: own estimations based on Deutsche Bahn (2017), European Environment Agency (2010), EMISIA (2013), Eurostat (2017), Go Euro (2017), Intraplan Consult GmbH (2005), Ministerio de Fomento de España (2014) and Sauter-Servaes et al (2016). Own calculation of the distances (based on a GIS-based analysis). 9

3.2.2 601 1,137 km From To Passengers Rail 2017 in 1,000 Connections Per Day Both Ways on 02/14/2017 1 Nice Ville 2 3 4 Barcelona Sants Gare de Lyon Hamburg 240 22 200 38 100 8 29 8 5 44 14 6 Barcelona Sants 7 Rome Termini 8 Madrid Puerta de Atocha 9 Stockholm Central 10 Barcelona Sants Gare de Lyon Gare d Est Gare de Lyon Lulea Central Termini 21 6 39 8 17 4 29 2 9 2 Sources: own estimations based on Deutsche Bahn (2017), European Environment Agency (2010), EMISIA (2013), Eurostat (2017), Go Euro (2017), Intraplan Consult GmbH (2005), Ministerio de Fomento de España (2014) and Sauter-Servaes et al (2016). Own calculation of the distances (based on a GIS-based analysis). 10

3.3 Comparison of Travel Times 3.3.1 200 600 km From To Passengers Flight 2014 In 1,000 Passengers Rail 2017 In 1,000 Average Travel Time Flight (in min) From/To City Centre, incl. Process Time at Airport Average Travel Time Rail (in min) From/To City Centre, incl. Process Time at Departuring Station Time Difference Rail-Flight in min Toulouse 2,331 390 230 375 +145 Madrid Barcelona 2,205 3,900 240 190-50 Catania Rome 1,870 3 240 610 +370 Berlin 1,869 340 220 400 +180 Frankfurt Berlin 1,792 500 200 270 +70 Dublin 1,651-220 - - Dusseldorf 1,527 90 220 300 +80 Amsterdam 1,487 270 240 330 +90 Rome Palermo 1,482 4 260 730 +470 Edinburgh 1,473 400 260 310 +50 Sources for travel times: own estimations based on Deutsche Bahn (2017), Go Euro (2017) and Sky Scanner (2017) Notes: The average travel times for flights were calculated by summing up The individual flight time (source: official flight times) the specific time (public transport) needed to get from city center A to airport A (e.g. Westminster Station to Heathrow) the specific time needed (public transport) to get from airport B to city center B (e.g. - Orly to Saint Michel Notre-Dame) and an average duration of stay at both the start and destination airport of 80 minutes (i.e. check-in, security cehcks, boarding, baggage drop-off and baggage claim etc.) (Cokasova 2003) The average travel times for rail journeys were calculated by summing up the average travel time from main station A to main station B (official time tables) the specific time (public transport) needed to get from city center A to main station A (e.g. Westminster Station to ) the specific time (public transport) needed to get from main station B to city center B (e.g. Gare du Nord to Saint Michel Notre-Dame) and an average duration of stay at the departuring station of 10 minutes (going to platform, finding the right section etc.) (Cokasova 2003) 11

3.3.2 601 1,137 km From To Passengers Flight 2014 In 1,000 Passengers Rail 2017 In 1,000 Average Travel Time Flight (in min) From/To City Centre, incl. Process Time at Airport Average Travel Time Rail (in min) From/To City Centre, incl. Process Time at Departuring Station Time Difference Rail-Flight in min Nice 2,072 240 230 390 +160 Hamburg 1,757 200 230 340 +110 Frankfurt 1,507 100 240 370 +130 1,274 29 270 580 +310 Rome 1,178 44 310 720 +410 Barcelona 1,139 21 300 700 +400 Stockholm Lulea 1,135 39 240 710 +470 Barcelona 1,023 17 280 460 +180 Barcelona Rome 1,021 29 290 1,260 +970 Madrid 1,019 9 270 640 +370 Sources for travel times: own estimations based on Deutsche Bahn (2017), Go Euro (2017) and Sky Scanner (2017) Notes: The average travel times for flights were calculated by summing up The individual flight time (source: official flight times) the specific time (public transport) needed to get from city center A to airport A (e.g. Westminster Station to Heathrow) the specific time needed (public transport) to get from airport B to city center B (e.g. - Orly to Saint Michel Notre-Dame) and an average duration of stay at both the start and destination airport of 80 minutes (i.e. check-in, security cehcks, boarding, baggage drop-off and baggage claim etc.) (Cokasova 2003) The average travel times for rail journeys were calculated by summing up the average travel time from main station A to main station B (official time tables) the specific time (public transport) needed to get from city center A to main station A (e.g. Westminster Station to ) the specific time (public transport) needed to get from main station B to city center B (e.g. Gare du Nord to Saint Michel Notre-Dame) and an average duration of stay at the departuring station of 10 minutes (going to platform, finding the right section etc.) (Cokasova 2003) 12

3.4 Operators 3.4.1 Rail Operators 200 600 km 1 2 3 4 From To Rail-Operators Rome Termini Madrid Puerta de Atocha Toulouse Matabiau 5 6 7 Edinburgh 8 Amsterdam Centraal 9 Gare de l Est 10 Milan Centrale Barcelona Sants Gare du Nord Montparnasse/ Gare de Lyon Amsterdam Centraal/Zuid Berlin Gare du Nord Sources: Deutsche Bahn (2017) and Go Euro (2017) Trenitalia Nuovo Trasporto Viaggiatori Red Nacional de los Ferrocarriles Españoles Eurostar International Société Nationale des Chemins de fer Français Eurostar International Thalys International Deutsche Bahn Virgin Trains (East Coast) Thalys International Deutsche Bahn Société Nationale des Chemins de fer Français Deutsche Bahn 13

3.4.2 Rail Operators 601 1,137 km 1 2 3 From To Rail-Operators Nice Ville 4 5 Rome Termini 6 Barcelona Sants 7 Stockholm Central 8 Barcelona Sants 9 Barcelona Sants 10 Madrid Puerta de Atocha Gare de Lyon Hamburg Gare de Lyon Lulea Central Gare de Lyon Rome Termini Gare de Lyon Sources: Deutsche Bahn (2017) and Go Euro (2017) Société Nationale des Chemins de fer Français Deutsche Bahn Eurostar International Thalys International Société Nationale des Chemins de fer Français Eurostar International Thalys International Société Nationale des Chemins de fer Français Trenitalia Nuovo Trasporto Viaggiatori Société Nationale des Chemins de fer Français Red Nacional de los Ferrocarriles Españoles Société Nationale des Chemins de fer Français Eurostar International SJ AB Red Nacional de los Ferrocarriles Españoles Société Nationale des Chemins de fer Français Red Nacional de los Ferrocarriles Españoles Société Nationale des Chemins de fer Français Trenitalia Nuovo Trasporto Viaggiatori Red Nacional de los Ferrocarriles Españoles Société Nationale des Chemins de fer Français 14

3.4.3 Aviation Operators 200 600 km 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 From To Aviation-Operators Toulouse Blagnac Madrid Barajas Catania Fontanarossa Franz-Josef-Strauß Frankfurt Airport Dublin Bhaile Átha Cliath Dusseldorf Düsseldorf Airport Heathrow Rome Fiumicino Edinburgh Edinburgh Airport Orly Barcelona El-Prat Rome Fiumicino Berlin Tegel Berlin Tegel Heathrow Franz-Josef-Strauß Amsterdam Schiphol Palermo Punta Raisi Heathrow Sources: Flight Connections (2017) and Sky Scanner (2017) easyjet AirFrance Vueling AirEuropa Iberia Ryanair Vueling Alitalia Airberlin Lufthansa Airberlin Lufthansa Aer Lingus British Airways Airberlin Lufthansa KLM British Airways Ryanair Vueling Alitalia British Airways 15

3.4.4 Aviation Operators 601 1,137 km 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 From To Aviation-Operators Nice Côte d'azur Franz-Josef-Strauß Heathrow Barcelona El-Prat Heathrow Barcelona El-Prat Rome Fiumicino Madrid Barajas Stockholm Arlanda Barcelona El-Prat Orly Hamburg Fuhlsbüttel Frankfurt Airport Gatwick Franz-Josef-Strauß Charles de Gaulle Charles de Gaulle Orly Lulea Kallax Frankfurt Airport Sources: Flight Connections (2017) and Sky Scanner (2017) easyjet AirFrance Airberlin Lufthansa British Airways Lufthansa easyjet Monarch Norwegian Vueling British Airways British Airways Lufthansa easyjet vueling AirFrance AirFrance Alitalia AirEurope Iberia Transavia Norwegian SAS Vueling Lufthansa 16

4 Top EU Passenger Rail Connections 4.1 200 600 km From To Connections Per Day Both Ways on 02/14/2017 Passengers Rail 2017 in 1,000 Top10 Flight- Route Yes / No 1 Milan Rome 110 4,000 No 2 Madrid Barcelona 42 3,900 Yes 3 Lyon 46 3,400 No 4 26 2,400 No 5 Brussels 44 1,500 No 6 Berlin Hamburg 48 1,100 No 7 Brussels 28 810 No 8 Toulouse 28 580 Yes 9 Amsterdam 36 540 Yes 10 Berlin 66 500 Yes Sources: own estimations based on Deutsche Bahn (2017), European Environment Agency (2010), EMISIA (2013), Eurostat (2017), Go Euro (2017), Intraplan Consult GmbH (2005), Ministerio de Fomento de España (2014) and Sauter-Servaes et al (2016). Own calculation of the distances (based on a GIS-based analysis). 17

4.2 601 1,137 km From To Connections Per Day Both Ways on 02/14/2017 Passengers Rail 2017 in 1,000 Top10 Flight-Route Yes / No 1 Marseille 26 1,300 No 2 Lyon 26 300 No 3 Nice 22 240 Yes 4 Hamburg 40 200 Yes 5 Berlin 14 130 No 6 Hamburg 12 110 No 7 6 100 Yes 8 16 85 No 9 Rome Stuttgart 14 70 No 10 Berlin Budapest 6 60 No Sources: own estimations based on Deutsche Bahn (2017), European Environment Agency (2010), EMISIA (2013), Eurostat (2017), Go Euro (2017), Intraplan Consult GmbH (2005), Ministerio de Fomento de España (2014) and Sauter-Servaes et al (2016). Own calculation of the distances (based on a GIS-based analysis). 18