U.S. Lodging Industry Update First Watch on a Long Voyage R. MARK WOODWORTH AMERICAS RESEARCH
AGENDA THE ECONOMY WHAT COULD END THE CURRENT CYCLE? LABOR COSTS OUR FORECASTS SHARING ECONOMY UPDATE First Watch on a Long Voyage 2
THE ECONOMY
HAPPY THOUGHTS FROM THE U.S.T.A. Recent indicators show that the economic expansion is accelerating. Consumer and small business confidence remain high. The labor market is healthy; wage growth is picking up. Inflation remains contained. The economic effects of the recently passed tax legislation have yet to be picked up. The possibility of further acceleration in economic growth moving forward is very real. The Current Travel Index (CTI) has registered at or above the 50 mark for 96 straight months, as the industry nears its ninth consecutive year of expansion according to the latest Travel Trends Index. 4
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE DRIVERS THAT ARE MOST IMPORTANT TO HOTELS REMAINS FAVORABLE 10 8 6 4 2 2.0% 3.9% 3.9% 2.7% 2.5% 1.7% 1.3% 4.6% 4.0% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 3.1% 0.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 4.6% 5.2% 3.2% 3.5% 3.3% 2.6% 2.0% 1.8% 2.4% 2.7% 2.2% 3.1%3.3% 2.1% 2.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.6% 1.2% 2.0% 1.8%1.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 2.6% 0-2 -4-6 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -2.7% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-1.9% -0.5% -1.5% -0.9% (GOVERNMENT) Government consumption expenditures and gross investment TRADE (Net exports of goods and services) BUSINESS (Gross private domestic investment) -8-5.4% CONSUMERS (Personal consumption expenditures) -8.2% -10 Lodging Demand Source: BEA, Moody s Analytics, CBRE Hotels Americas Research Hotel Horizons, STR, February 2018 5
WHAT COULD END THE CURRENT CYCLE?
WHAT COULD END THE CURRENT CYCLE? 1. The Economy 2. Over Building 3. Unpredictable Demand Shock 4. Oil/Energy Price Increases 5. Asset Price Bubble 7
PIPELINE
SUPPLY CHANGE Q4 2016-Q4 2017 7.0% 6.0% 36 markets where the average supply growth over the past year was greater than 2%. 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0% (1.0)% (2.0)% Charlotte Austin Denver Dallas Pittsburgh Raleigh-Durham Tampa Seattle Milwaukee Charleston New York Columbus Nashville Albany Cincinnati Houston Los Angeles Portland Philadelphia Fort Worth Omaha Boston Chicago West Palm Beach Hartford Detroit Salt Lake City New Orleans Indianapolis Newark Washington DC Phoenix Oakland Richmond San Jose-Santa Cruz Memphis Cleveland Savannah Baltimore Saint Louis San Francisco San Antonio Fort Lauderdale Louisville Dayton Oahu Long Island Minneapolis Jacksonville San Diego Atlanta Sacramento Anaheim Orlando Kansas City Norfolk-VA Beach Albuquerque Miami Columbia Tucson Source: CBRE Hotels Americas Research; STR, Q4 2017. 9
SUPPLY CHANGE 2018 - FORECAST 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 42 markets where the average supply growth is forecast to be greater than 2%. 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0% Austin Seattle Nashville Savannah Charleston Denver Dallas Charlotte New York Louisville Fort Worth Columbus Portland Boston Kansas City Cincinnati Milwaukee Houston San Jose-Santa Raleigh-Durham Fort Lauderdale Minneapolis Newark San Francisco Tampa Salt Lake City Detroit Indianapolis Pittsburgh Hartford Omaha Los Angeles Baltimore Dayton New Orleans Chicago Memphis San Antonio Philadelphia Miami Atlanta Washington DC Sacramento San Diego Phoenix Jacksonville Orlando Albuquerque Cleveland Long Island Saint Louis Norfolk-VA Beach Oakland Anaheim Albany Richmond Tucson Oahu West Palm Beach Columbia Source: CBRE Hotels Americas Research Q4 2017 10
WEAK ADR GROWTH IS THE NORM 2016/17 Real ADR and Supply Change By Market Large Supply = Real ADR Source: STR, CBRE Hotels Americas Research, Q4 2017 11
WEAK ADR GROWTH PERSISTS 2018/19 Real ADR and Supply Change By Market Although Not as Many Markets Will be Impacted in 2018 Source: STR, CBRE Hotels Americas Research, Q4 2017 12
PIPELINE PLATEAU S? Number of Rooms Under Construction 210,000 190,000 194,455 193,119 170,000 150,000 130,000 110,000 90,000 Source: STR, February 2018. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 13
PIPELINE RECENT PICKUP Number of Rooms in Final Planning and Under Construction 220,000 200,000 180,000 Final Planning 160,000 140,000 Under Construction 120,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 In Construction Final Planning Source: STR, February 2018. 14
NEW ROOMS 12 MMA of New Hotel Room Added in the U.S. 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Well Below Previous Peaks 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: STR, CBRE Hotels Americas Research, Dec 2017. 15
CONSTRUCTION JOB OPENINGS Construction Job Openings as a Percent of Total Construction Jobs 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% Well Above Previous Peaks 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: BLS, Dec 2017. 16
CONSTRUCTION TIMELINES LENGTHENING Average Days Completion Top 5 Brands in the Top 25 Markets Source: STR, CBRE Hotels Americas Research, Dec 2017. 17
PLANNING FALLACY Total Construction Delays and Number of Projects Delay in Quarters 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Project Starts 200 180 160 140 120 100 3.0 80 2.0 60 1.0 40 20 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Project Starts (Right) Mean First Planned Duration (Left) Historical Delay (Left) Project Completions (Right) Source: STR, CBRE Hotels Americas Research, March 2017. 18
US HOTEL SUPPLY Supply % of Rooms by Chain Scale 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 16.7% 30% 20% 10% 0% Upper Priced Chain Properties now make Up 28.3% of Total Room Supply 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Luxury Chains Upper Upscale Chains Upscale Chains Upper Midscale Chains Midscale Chains Economy Chains Independents Source: STR, CBRE Hotels Americas Research, March 2017. 19
NEW HOTEL SUPPLY UPPER PRICED ROOMS W/O F&B % of New Upper Priced Rooms w/o F&B 30% 25% Upscale, Upper Upscale, Luxury 27% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: STR, CBRE Hotels Americas Research, March 2017. 20
RISE OF SELECT SERVICE % of New Rooms w/o F&B for Upscale, Upper Midscale, and Midscale Chains 70% 63.0% 60% 50% 40% 30% 21.7% 20% 10% 0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: STR, CBRE Hotels Americas Research, March 2017. 22
BUBBLES
BUBBLES? The Stock Market Price to Median 10-Year-Earnings Source: Shiller CAPE, March 2018. 24
LABOR IMPACT OF TIGHTENING LABOR MARKETS
TIGHTENING LABOR MARKETS 2016 Mix of Expenses Total Labor Costs and Related Expenses 42.8% Cost of Sales 7.2% Management Fees 4.8% Non-Operating Income and Expenses 10.2% Operating Expenses 35.0% Source: CBRE Hotels 2017 Trends in the Hotel Industry 26
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY JOB OPENINGS Leisure & Hospitality Job Openings as a Percent of Total Leisure & Hospitality Jobs 7% 6% 5% 5.8% 4.9% 5.3% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1.5% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: BLS, Dec 2017. 28
TIGHTENING LABOR MARKETS Annual Change in Labor Costs and Other Expenses* 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Labor Costs Other Expenses* Note: * Before Management Fees and Non-Operating Income and Expenses Source: CBRE Hotels Trends in the Hotel Industry 29
OUR FORECASTS
U.S. NATIONAL FORECAST ALL HOTELS Long Run Average 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F Supply 1.9% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% Demand 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 1.8% 1.9% Occupancy 62.2% 65.4% 65.4% 65.9% 65.8% 65.8% ADR 3.1% 4.5% 3.1% 2.1% 2.6% 2.0% RevPAR 3.3% 6.1% 3.2% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% Source: STR, CBRE Hotels Americas Research, Q4 2017. 31
U.S. NATIONAL FORECAST TOP 25 MKTS Long Run Average 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F Supply 1.8% 1.1% 2.2% 2.5% 3.1% 3.4% Demand 2.1% 2.6% 1.8% 3.1% 2.9% 3.1% Occupancy 67.1% 73.7% 73.4% 73.8% 73.7% 73.4% ADR 3.1% 4.3% 2.7% 1.5% 2.6% 2.0% RevPAR 3.6% 5.9% 2.3% 2.1% 2.4% 1.7% Source: STR, CBRE Hotels Americas Research, Q4 2017. 32
REAL REVPAR CHANGE FROM PRE-RECESSION PEAK NOT ALL MARKETS HAVE FULLY RECOVERED FROM THE LAST RECESSION. 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0% (10.0)% (20.0)% (30.0)% Markets in Expansion San Jose-Santa Cruz Nashville San Francisco Oakland Portland Los Angeles Oahu Denver Charlotte Cincinnati Seattle Boston Austin Anaheim Charleston Tampa Indianapolis Louisville Dayton Kansas City Columbus Detroit Sacramento Dallas Saint Louis Columbia Orlando Atlanta Jacksonville Fort Lauderdale Salt Lake City Raleigh-Durham San Diego Fort Worth Miami Memphis Milwaukee Long Island Richmond Hartford Newark New Orleans Washington DC Norfolk-VA Beach West Palm Beach Albuquerque Philadelphia Pittsburgh Omaha San Antonio Phoenix Houston Tucson New York Savannah Cleveland Minneapolis Albany Chicago Baltimore Source: CBRE Hotels Americas Research; STR, Q4 2017. 33 Markets in Recovery Markets in Recession
SHARING ECONOMY CHANGING LANDSCAPE
HOME SHARING MARKET PLACE 35
AIRBNB & HOTEL SUPPLY IN THE US Average Daily Supply in the U.S. Year Hotel Rooms Hotel^ Airbnb Units Airbnb^ Airbnb+Hotels Airbnb+Hotels^ 2012 4,849,352 0.30% 13,000 150% 4,862,352 0.50% 2013 4,875,064 0.50% 28,000 115% 4,903,064 0.8% 2014 4,905,305 0.60% 58,000 107% 4,963,305 1.2% 2015 4,953,177 1.00% 115,235 99% 5,068,412 2.1% 2016 5,027,238 1.50% 224,630 95% 5,251,868 3.6% 2017 5,119,907 1.80% 347,748 55% 5,467,655 4.1% Source: CBRE Hotels Americas Research, Airdna, Google Trends, Dec 2017. 36 Previous Peak @ 3.1% Q1 2009
HOME SHARING MARKET PLACE Hotel, Lodging and Private Accommodation Online Distribution Mix, 2017 and 2021 7% 13% 6% 19% 39% 2017 37% 2021 41% 38% Private Accommodation Intermediaries Hotel & Lodging Branded Websites/Apps OTA Hotel & Lodging (excluding private accommodation) Property Manager Websites Note: 2017 and 2021 projected SOURCES: PHOCUSWRIGHT S A MARKET TRANSFORMED: PRIVATE ACCOMMODATION IN THE U.S., U.S. ONLINE TRAVEL OVERVIEW SEVENTEENTH EDITION 37
Trends in Airbnb Unit Growth 2017 Y-o-Y Change in Active Entire-Home Units (Top 25 Hotel Markets) 200.0% 180.0% 171.9% 160.0% 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 124.3% 111.8% 92.5% 90.1% 82.4% 74.6% 66.5% 65.9% 65.8% 63.5% 57.9% 55.2% 52.0% 49.0% 42.7% 40.6% 38.8% 34.6% 33.1% 30.7% 19.4% 12.9% 7.1% 0.0% -20.0% -1.1% Source: CBRE Hotels Americas Research, Airdna, Dec 2017. 38
TRENDS IN AIRBNB UNIT GROWTH 2017 Y-O-Y CHANGE IN ACTIVE ENTIRE-HOME UNITS Fastest Growing Markets Ranking Market Active Units 1 Mobile, AL 305.7% 2 Florida Panhandle, FL 189.9% 3 Myrtle Beach, SC 174.4% 4 Norfolk, VA 171.9% 5 Augusta, GA 143.6% 6 Charleston, SC 137.1% 7 Knoxville, TN 131.2% 8 McAllen/Brownsville, TX 130.8% 9 Tampa, FL 124.3% 10 Dayton, OH 123.5% Slowest Growing Markets Ranking Market Active Units 1 New York -1.1% 2 San Francisco 7.1% 3 Chicago 12.9% 4 Oakland 18.2% 5 Cleveland 18.3% 6 Miami 19.4% 7 San Jose/Santa Cruz 23.5% 8 Philadelphia 30.7% 9 Denver 33.1% 10 Richmond 33.2% Source: CBRE Hotels Americas Research, Airdna, STR, Dec 2017. 39
WHY THEY RENTED? Meet local people Interact with hosts 49% Experience local culture Location 53% Value SOURCE: PHOCUSWRIGHT S A MARKET TRANSFORMED: PRIVATE ACCOMMODATION IN THE U.S., 40
WEAK ADR GROWTH 2017 Discount of Airbnb Unit (1 Room) to the Avg. Hotel Room ADR $300 Airbnb Hotel Airbnb Discount 40% $200 30% 20% ADRs $100 10% $0 0% -$100 -$200 Oahu New York West Palm Beach Los Angeles Miami Phoenix Orlando San Jose/Santa Cruz San Francisco Oakland Washington DC Portland Raleigh-Durham Seattle Philadelphia Fort Lauderdale Boston Chicago Salt Lake City Denver -10% -20% -30% Airbnb Discount -$300-40% Source: CBRE Hotels Americas Research, Airdna, STR, Dec 2017. 41
SUMMARY THOUGHTS
SUMMARY THOUGHTS FIRST WATCH ON A LONG VOYAGE 1. The fundamentals remain attractive across the vast majority of markets. 2. Growing levels of disposable income and wealth will continue to drive increases in travel away from home. 3. Moderating supply growth will support high occupancy levels and may finally help to leverage ADR increases over the next two-three years. 4. Above long run average occupancy leads to revenue growth. Increasing labor costs will pressure performance. Profit growth will be durable, but not great. 5. Sharing economy will become more of a factor for traditional hotels. 6. Outlook for lodging in most domestic markets remains favorable. 43
The World s Leading Hotel Experts. MARK WOODWORTH Senior Managing Director + 1 404 812 5085 mark.woodworth@cbre.com CBRE Hotels Americas Research 3280 Peachtree Road, Suite 1400 Atlanta, GA 30305 CBRE 2017 All Rights Reserved. All information included in this proposal pertaining to CBRE including but not limited to its operations, employees, technology and clients are proprietary and confidential, and are supplied with the understanding that they will be held in confidence and not disclosed to third parties without the prior written consent of CBRE. This proposal is intended solely as a preliminary expression of general intentions and is to be used for discussion purposes only. The parties intend that neither shall have any contractual obligations to the other with respect to the matters referred herein unless and until a definitive agreement has been fully executed and delivered by the parties. The parties agree that this proposal is not intended to create any agreement or obligation by either party to negotiate a definitive lease/purchase and sale agreement and imposes no duty whatsoever on either party to continue negotiations, including without limitation any obligation to negotiate in good faith or in any way other than at arm s length. Prior to delivery of a definitive executed agreement, and without any liability to the other party, either party may (1) propose different terms from those summarized herein, (2) enter into negotiations with other parties and/or (3) unilaterally terminate all negotiations with the other party hereto. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources believed reliable. While CBRE, Inc. does not doubt its accuracy, CBRE, Inc. has not verified it and makes no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently confirm its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. The value of this transaction to you depends on tax and other factors which should be evaluated by your tax, financial and legal advisors. You and your advisors should conduct a careful, independent investigation of the property to determine to your satisfaction the suitability of the property for your needs.