OMV Aktiengesellschaft Developments in Energy Demand and Efficiency in the VEF Countries Vienna Economic Forum 6 November 2006 Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer Chief Executive Officer Move & More.
Content Energy efficiency in VEF-countries Trends and perspectives for CE & SEE Developing of energy infrastructure in Europe Investment needs and the European energy policy The energy industry s approach - conclusion 2 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
GDP and energy supply in VEF-Countries 500 528,7 GDP 2004 in bn USD 90 80 Total primary energy suply 2004 in Mtoe 81,90 400 70 60 300 200 243,2 169,0 50 40 30 38,57 33,19 100 20 18,94 17,35 0 57,6 49,8 38,4 25,3 21,9 14,2 12,3 6,7 Turkey Austria Romania Bulgaria Croatia Slovenia Bosnia & Herzeg. Serbia & Mont. Albania Macedonia Moldova Sources: IEA "Energy Balances of NON-OECD- Countries 2003-2004, 8/2006 IEA "Energy Balances of OECD- Countries 2003-2004, 8/2006 10 0 Turkey Romania Austria Bulgaria Serbia & Mont. 8,82 7,17 4,70 3,38 Croatia Slovenia Bosnia & Herzeg. 2,70 Moldova Macedonia Albania 2,37 3 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
Energy intensity in VEF-Countries - 2004 Energy intensity in toe / 1,000 USD GDP Energy intensity in toe / capita Serbia & Mont. 0,79 Austria 4,06 Moldova 0,51 Slovenia 3,59 Bulgaria 0,33 Bulgaria 2,43 Romania 0,23 Serbia & Mont. 2,14 Macedonia 0,22 Croatia 2,00 Slovenia 0,19 Romania 1,78 Bosnia & Herzeg. 0,19 Macedonia 1,35 Croatia 0,18 Bosnia & Herzeg. 1,21 Albania 0,17 Turkey 1,14 Turkey 0,15 Moldova 0,81 Austria 0,14 Albania 0,76 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 Sources: IEA "Energy Balances of NON-OECD- Countries 2003-2004, 8/2006 IEA "Energy Balances of OECD- Countries 2003-2004, 8/2006 4 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
Energy intensity in VEF-Countries - 2004 5 Energy intensity in the VEF-region 4 A Area of cycle corresponds to total energy supply in mn toe SLO Energy intensity in toe / capita 3 2 TR HR RO BG SCG 1 AL BIH MK MD 0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 Energy intensity in toe / 10³ USD GDP* Sources: IEA "Energy Balances of NON-OECD- Countries 2003-2004, 8/2006 IEA "Energy Balances of OECD- Countries 2003-2004, 8/2006 5 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
GDP-Forecast for European countries 1.200 GDP in bn EUR 20.000 GDP in bn EUR Austria 1.000 Bulgaria Czech Rep. 16.000 800 Hungary Poland Romania 12.000 600 Slovakia Slovenia 400 Turkey 8.000 EU-15 EU-25 200 4.000 EU-30 0 1990 1995 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 1990 1995 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EU European Energy &Transport - Trends to 2030, Update 6 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
Energy intensity in Europe - 1990-2030 800 Energy intensity in toe / mn EUR 5,0 Energy intensity in toe / capita 700 600 NMS EU-15 EU-25 4,5 NMS EU-15 EU-25 500 4,0 400 3,5 300 3,0 200 100 2,5 0 1990 1995 2015 2020 2025 2030 2,0 1990 1995 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: EU European Energy &Transport - Trends to 2030, Update NMS.. New Member States 7 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
Mobility in Central & South East Europe - growth potential for decades 700 Car density in Central & South East Europe PKW Car density Dichte Germany Deutschland Austria Triveneto Bavaria Mature markets Slovenia 350 0 Estonia Hungary, Slovakia Moldova, Turkey Albania Poland Bulgaria, Croatia Romania, Serbia, Bosnia Greece Czech Rep. Lithuania 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2015 Growwth markets 8 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
Primary energy consumption in VEF-Countries 110 100 90 Primary energy consumption : ~232 Mtoe Growth rate -: 2,5% p.a. 80 70 60 50 40 Solid Waste & Biomass Nuclear, Hydro & Renewables Natural gas Oil & petroleum Solid Fuels 30 20 10 0 Albania Austria Bosnia & Herzeg. Bulgaria Croatia Macedonia Moldova Romania Serbia & Mont. Slovenia Turkey Source: Global Insight "European Energy and Environmental Outlook, 6/2006 9 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
Refineries in Central & South Eastern Europe Litvinov 5.4 Drohobych 3.9 Kralupy 3.3 Schwechat 9.6 Rijeka 4.5 Paramo 0.8 Slovnaft 6.1 Szazhalombatta 8.1 Sisak 2.2 Novi Sad 2.6 Srpski Brod 5.1 Balshi 1.0 Thessaloniki 3.5 Pancevo 4.8 Skopje 2.5 Source OMV: Refinery Crude Capacity in mn tonnes; Petrotel 3.5 Nadvornja 2.5 Arpechim 3.5 Rafo 3.5 Petrobrazi 4.5 Neftochim 10.7 Elefsis 5.0 Aspropyrgos Corinth 6.7 5.0 10 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006 Kremenchug 18.0 Lisichansk 16.0 Odessa 3.6 Kherson 6.9 Petromidia 4.2 Izmit 12.0 18 refineries >1 mn t in 11 VEF-countries: total capacity 95 mn t Izmir 10.8 Kirikkale 5.4 Batman 1.0
European access to Russian and Caspian Crude DRUZHBA KAZAKHSTAN Brodi RUSSIA Tengiz POLAND GERMANY ITALY TAL BSP AWP CROATIA CZECH REPUBLIC Adriatic HUNGARY PEOP ROMANIA BA UKRAINE Odessa Constanta Burgaz Samsun BLACK SEA Novorossiysk Supsa BTC Tiblisi GEORGIA ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN Baku IRAN Caspian Sea Alexandroupolis SCCOP TURKEY Ceyhan Syria KIrkuk Iraq Heavy / sour crude Light / sweet crude (Caspian Crude) Crude via Adriatic BA Burgas Alexandropoulis BSP Bratislava - Schwechat BTC Baku Tiblisi - Ceyhan PEOP Pan European Oil Pipeline (Constanza Pancevo - Triest) SCCOP Samsun Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline 11 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
Missing link between giant gas sources (in bcm) and potential markets 3,010 47,820 1,410 83,140 Caspian Region Middle East and Egypt 4,580 Source: BP Statistical Review 6/2006 12 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
Nabucco gas pipeline project Gas supply sources for Nabucco 13 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
Global energy investment bn USD Projected necessary investment 2001-2030 3.500 19% 3.000 2.500 14% Total: ~ 550 bn. USD p.a. Coal Gas Oil Electricity 2.000 10% 10% 1.500 8% 7% 6% 6% 1.000 5% 500 0 US & Canada China Transition economies EU15 Latin America Africa Middle East OECD Pacific India Source: IEA / World Energy Investment Outlook 2003 14 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
Energy investment Projected necessary investment 2001-2030 in bn USD Transition Economies *) EU-15 700 (42%) 448 (27%) Oil Gas 1.110 (69%) Coal Electricity 117 (7%) 32 (2%) 492 (29%) 10 (1%) 365 (23%) Total: 1.672 bn USD Total: 1.602 bn USD Source: IEA / World Energy Investment Outlook 2003 *) incl. FSU, EU-New Member & Balkan States 15 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
Framework for energy investment in VEF-region Stable regulatory and market framework - compatible to EU energy policy Opening of markets enabling access, transparancy and a level playing field Screening of project proposals in electricity, gas, oil, energy efficiency and capacity building shared views for supply demand balance Broad international cooperation to define, finance and realize of key projects Lowering financing costs and risks for investors 16 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
The new European energy policy Green Paper European strategy for sustainable, competitive and secure energy six priority areas Towards a coherent external energy policy Tackling security and competitiveness of energy supply Solidarity among MS: towards an European internal energy supply policy An integrated approach to tackling climate change Encouraging innovation: a strategic European technology plan Energy for jobs and growth: completing the internal electricity and gas markets Outcome of EU-Council (Spring Summit): March 23-24, 2006 Annual revision of EU energy strategy Coordinated negotiations with supply countries Solidarity in case of disruptions in oil & gas supply Energy efficiency : -20 % EU-25 energy demand in 2020 15 % share of renewables in 2015 (8 % share of biofuels) No restistance against nuclear power 17 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006
The energy industries approach - conclusion Focus on Exploration & Production: Availability not the issue, but access, investment and technology Appropriate regulations, fiscal regimes and competitiveness are critical New competitors in the market, need for dialog and cooperation Energy infrastructure: Call for competitive framework for long term planning & investment Linking new energy sources to the markets Diversification and flexibility to manage imbalances, volatilities Energy demand: Further growth of energy demand to 2030, oil & gas remain dominant Significant growth but no revolution by renewables in the energy-mix Sensitive balancing of energy systems and energy efficiency required 18 OMV Aktiengesellschaft, Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer, November 2006