PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan Part 1, 2015 Ontario.ca/mah
PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan Part 1, 2015
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Welcome to Greenbelt Plan Performance Indicators 1 A Commitment to Continuous Improvement 1 A Key Component of Evidence-Based Policy Review 2 Greenbelt Plan Performance Monitoring 2 From Policy Themes to Performance Indicators 2 What are System-Level Indicators? 3 Policy Themes and Performance Indicators 4 Icons Used in this Report 4 Performance Monitoring Challenges and Limitations 7 Highlights of Initial Results 7 Policy Theme - Prime Agricultural Land and Fragmentation 8 Indicator: Lot Creation in Greenbelt Specialty Crop Areas 10 Policy Theme - Directing Urban Growth 12 Indicator: Lot Creation Outside Settlement Areas 14 Indicator: Annual Rate of Lot Creation Outside Settlement Areas 15 Indicator: Distribution of Lot Creation Outside Settlement Areas 16 Indicator: Dwelling Unit Growth Outside Settlement Areas 18 Indicator: Percentage of New Dwelling Units Created in Settlement Areas 19 Indicator: Distribution of Dwelling Unit Growth Outside Settlement Areas 20 Policy Theme Natural Heritage and Connectivity 22 Indicator: Percentage of Woodland Cover (2000-2002) 24 Indicator: Percentage of Mapped Wetland Cover (2000-2002) 25 Policy Theme Water 27 Indicator: Percentage of Watershed Plan Coverage in the Greenbelt 29 Next steps and Additional Information 31
OVERVIEW WELCOME TO GREENBELT PLAN PERFORMANCE INDICATORS The Greenbelt Plan is vital to maintaining quality of life for people living and working in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, where the current population of nine million is expected to increase by roughly 4.5 million, to a total of over 13.5 million, by 2041. Established in 2005, the Plan serves to protect agricultural land and preserve some of the most ecologically sensitive features and functions in the province. It identifies areas where future urbanization should not occur in order to provide permanent protection for prime agricultural land and environmentally sensitive areas. The Vision of the Greenbelt Plan The Greenbelt is a broad band of permanently protected land which: Protects against the loss and fragmentation of the agricultural land base and supports agriculture as the predominant land use; Gives permanent protection to the natural heritage and water resource systems that sustain ecological and human health and that form the environmental framework around which major urbanization in south-central Ontario will be organized; and Provides for a diverse range of economic and social activities associated with rural communities, agriculture, tourism, recreation and resource uses. The Greenbelt is made up of three land use plans that share one broad vision. The Greenbelt (Context Map, p. 6) includes over 900,000 acres of land protected by the Niagara Escarpment Plan (NEP) and the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (ORMCP), and one million acres as the Protected Countryside (PC) under the Greenbelt Plan. The Greenbelt Plan works in concert with the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The urban growth that is directed away from the Greenbelt is promoted and encouraged by the Growth Plan to be directed to the Urban Growth Centres and existing built areas outside of the Greenbelt. Together, these land use plans work to ensure urban growth happens in the right places and in the most efficient way, while protecting and enhancing the environmental and agricultural lands surrounding urban areas. A Commitment to Continuous Improvement The Greenbelt Plan provides that the province will identify performance indicators to evaluate the effectiveness of the policies of the Greenbelt Plan in achieving its goals. The Province established a performance monitoring framework based on nine themes: Directing Urban Growth, Natural Heritage and Connectivity, Prime Agricultural Land and Fragmentation, Water, Aggregates, Infrastructure, Strong Rural Communities, Agricultural Economy and Tourism, Recreation and Cultural Heritage. Greenbelt Plan, 2005 PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 1
OVERVIEW A Key Component of Evidence-Based Policy Review The Greenbelt performance indicators are a key component of the evidence-based approach being undertaken for the co-ordinated reviews of the Greenbelt Plan, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan, alongside the review of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Greenbelt Plan Performance Monitoring Greenbelt performance monitoring was developed through a collaborative process working with the Ministries of Municipal Affairs and Housing, including the Ontario Growth Secretariat; Natural Resources and Forestry, including the Niagara Escarpment Commission; Environment and Climate Change; Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs; Transportation; and Tourism Culture and Sport, which included extensive consultation with stakeholders, municipalities and the public. The Greenbelt Council also provided valuable guidance throughout this process. Greenbelt performance monitoring is a dynamic way of responding to changing circumstances as new information sources become available over time. Throughout the performance monitoring process, indicators may be developed, modified or replaced entirely. Most of the indicators will be reported at the system-level scale (Figure 1, p. 3). However, as the Greenbelt Plan includes the areas covered by the Protected Countryside designation as well as the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and the Niagara Escarpment Plan, performance indicators will show results for each of these plans wherever possible. From Policy Themes to Performance Indicators When developing performance indicators, we used the Greenbelt s Vision (p. 1) and grouped the main objectives of the Greenbelt into nine distinct policy themes (Figure 2, p. 4). These policy themes reflected the wide range of outcomes that the Greenbelt Plan set out to achieve. Numerous performance indicators were then developed for each policy theme to determine if the outcomes have been met and what progress has been made since the establishment of the Greenbelt. Over time we will develop indicators to measure the Greenbelt s effectiveness in each of the nine themes. At this time, we have indicators for four themes: Directing Urban Growth, Prime Agricultural Land and Fragmentation, Natural Heritage and Connectivity, and Water (Figure 2, p. 4). Credit: Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation 2 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
OVERVIEW What are System-Level Indicators? An example of a sub-regional indicator would be: Change in forest cover in a particular municipality or sub-region of the Greenbelt. A regional level indicator could be similar but would cover a larger geographic component (e.g., the Oak Ridges Moraine Area or the Natural Heritage System of the Greenbelt). System level indicators look at information on a broad geographical scale (e.g., change in forest cover over the entire Greenbelt). Figure 1: System Level Scalability Provincial level indicators, such as those examined through reviews of the Provincial Policy Statement, may provide a broader comparison for any Greenbelt results. Credit: Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 3
OVERVIEW Policy Themes and Performance Indicators Figure 2: Themes and indicators in this document Icons Used in this Report - Performance Indicator Types This report contains two types of performance indicators: Baseline indicators - Identifies where data is too limited and therefore does not yet allow comparison over time or across geographies. In the future, as more data becomes available, these may change into trend indicators. Trend indicators - Identifies where data is available to allow for comparison over time or across geographies. The data also allows for some results to be shown on possible trends and provides some general insight into how well the plan policies are being achieved. 4 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
OVERVIEW Icons Used in this Report - Provincial Plans This document uses the following icons to distinguish among the three provincial plans that make up the Greenbelt: Greenbelt Identifies when the three plans are reported as one system level indicator. Protected Countryside Identifies when an indicator is reporting results for the Protected Countryside only. Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan - Identifies when an indicator is reporting results for the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan only. Niagara Escarpment Plan Identifies when an indicator is reporting results for the Niagara Escarpment Plan only. Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe - Identifies when an indicator is reporting results for the Growth Plan only. All Growth Plan numbers and results speak to the Growth Plan area (Context Map, p. 6), excluding the Greenbelt. The map on the following page displays these icons, the plan geographies and key information which will be useful for navigating this document. Credit: Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 5
Greenbelt NOTES: 2015, Queen s Printer for Ontario. Information provided by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, under licence with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. Information displayed on this map has been compiled from various sources. While every effort has been made to accurately depict the information, this map should not be relied on as being a precise indicator of locations of features. OVERVIEW Context Map of Provincial Plans Designation: Protected Countryside Plan: Greenbelt Plan, 2005 Legislation: Greenbelt Act, 2005 Plan: Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan, 2002 Legislation: Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Act, 2001 Plan: Niagara Escarpment Plan,1985 Legislation: Niagara Escarpment Planning and Development Act, 1973 Growth Plan Plan: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 Legislation: Places to Grow Act, 2005 6 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
OVERVIEW Performance Monitoring Challenges and Limitations The complexity of the variables that can affect the landscape can make it hard to establish any firm conclusions about whether the outcomes being measured are the result of the land use plan policies being implemented. Some policy outcomes may take many years before any measurable changes can be seen. Data can often be unavailable due to cost, legal restrictions and gaps in geographic and temporal coverage. Finally, the policies being measured may have multiple or overlapping objectives. For more detail on how we are monitoring the Greenbelt, this document provides background, explains our challenges, describes our data and methods, and communicates the results in a simple and helpful way. Highlights of Initial Results There was limited lot creation in the Specialty Crop Areas of the Holland Marsh and Niagara Peninsula Tender Fruit and Grape Area. The majority of new lots and dwelling units are being directed to settlement areas and away from agricultural and environmentally sensitive lands. A 2000-2002 baseline for woodland and wetland cover has been determined for the Greenbelt, which we hope to compare with future data for potential changes. The majority of the Greenbelt is supported by completed watershed plans to help protect key hydrological resources. Credit: Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 7
PRIME AGRICULTURAL LAND and FRAGMENTATION PRIME AGRICULTURAL LAND AND FRAGMENTATION Agriculture is central to the Greenbelt, with over 40 per cent of the land in agricultural production, including important specialty crop areas like the Holland Marsh and Niagara Peninsula Tender Fruit and Grape Area. Therefore a cornerstone of the Greenbelt Plan s vision is to protect against the loss and fragmentation of the agricultural land base and support agriculture as the predominant land use. The Agricultural System of the Protected Countryside provides a continuous and protected land base necessary to support long-term agricultural production and economic activity. The Agricultural System comprises three areas: specialty crop, prime agricultural and rural areas. Specialty crop areas receive the highest level of agricultural protection in the Greenbelt Plan: no settlement area expansions or non-agricultural uses are permitted, with limited exceptions for uses such as infrastructure. A full range of agriculture, agriculture-related and secondary uses are permitted in specialty crop areas while new lots in specialty crop areas must be a minimum of 40 acres. Prime agricultural areas are delineated in municipal official plans and cannot be redesignated for non-agricultural uses (with limited exceptions). Modest settlement area expansions may be permitted in prime agricultural areas at the time of the 10-year review, subject to criteria. A full range of normal farm practices, agriculture-related and secondary uses are permitted in prime agricultural areas while new lots must be a minimum of 100 acres. Rural areas are delineated in municipal official plans, and allow for a range of recreational, tourism, institutional and resource-based commercial/industrial uses serving rural resource and agricultural communities. Specific land uses are identified in municipal official plans. Multi-unit residential development (i.e. more than three lots) created through consent or plan of subdivision is not permitted. Key Findings From 2007-2014, lots less than 40 acres in specialty crop areas increased by only 0.7 per cent. Credit: Tim Hagen 8 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
Greenbelt NOTES: 2015, Queen s Printer for Ontario. Information provided by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, under licence with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. Information displayed on this map has been compiled from various sources. While every effort has been made to accurately depict the information, this map should not be relied on as being a precise indicator of locations of features. PRIME AGRICULTURAL LAND and FRAGMENTATION Context Map of Greenbelt Specialty Crop Areas Specialty Crop Areas Holland Marsh Size: 15,000 acres Location: York Region and Simcoe County Characteristics: Black, organic, fertile soils with unique microclimate Major Crops: Carrots, onions, beets, lettuce, celery, potatoes, cauliflower, radish and parsnips Niagara Peninsula Tender Fruit and Grape Area Size: 85,000 acres Location: Niagara Region and City of Hamilton Characteristics: Unique soil and microclimate Major Crops: Tender fruits (pears, peaches, plums, cherries) and grapes PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 9
PRIME AGRICULTURAL LAND and FRAGMENTATION LOT CREATION IN GREENBELT SPECIALTY CROP AREAS What are we counting? The growth in under-40 acre lots in Greenbelt (GB) specialty crop areas (the Holland Marsh and the Niagara Peninsula Tender Fruit and Grape Area) from 2007-2014. Why are we counting this? The Protected Countryside contains policies to help prevent the fragmentation of Greenbelt specialty crop areas into smaller parcels that may limit their long term agricultural viability. Specifically, the Plan does not permit the creation of parcels smaller than 40 acres except in limited circumstances. Creating new lots in agricultural areas can have the effect of: Reducing the amount of farmland available for agriculture Reducing the size of farm parcels therby limiting agricultural options Restricting the ability to meet provincial minimum separation distances between livestock facilities and non-farm uses Increasing the conflicts between farms and rural residential uses Increasing the traffic on rural roads used by farm vehicles Results Across both Greenbelt specialty crop areas only 40 under-40 acre lots were created between 2007-2014 for a modest increase of only 0.7 per cent. This is the approximate equivalent of less than one lot per year per municipality in Greenbelt specialty crop areas. 10 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
PRIME AGRICULTURAL LAND and FRAGMENTATION Considerations Lots less than one acre were filtered out of these totals to avoid counting smaller undevelopable parcels and to focus on potential for rural residential development and other fragmentation of specialty crop areas. Some lot creation in specialty crop areas is permitted in certain circumstances, such as infrastructure, surplus farm dwellings and for agricultural uses where the lot created is greater than 40 acres. Data Used Municipal Property Assessment Corporation parcel fabric 2007-2014. Boundaries taken from the Greenbelt Plan for the Holland Marsh and Niagara Peninsula Tender Fruit and Grape Area. Credit: Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 11
DIRECTING URBAN GROWTH DIRECTING URBAN GROWTH The Greenbelt Plan is complementary to the the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, Ontario s overarching strategy for managing growth in the region. The Greenbelt Plan identifies where major growth cannot take place. It gives permanent protection to the agricultural, natural heritage and water resource systems that sustain ecological and human health and form the environmental framework around which major urbanization in south-central Ontario will be organized. The policies of the Greenbelt Plan, Niagara Escarpment Plan and Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan work to protect agricultural and environmentally sensitive lands by directing growth to urban settlement areas including cities, towns and villages. Lot creation outside settlement areas is limited to agricultural, agriculture-related, and infrastructure uses as well as permitted rural uses (outside prime agricultural areas). Credit: Town of Orangeville Key Findings There was limited lot creation outside settlement areas in the Greenbelt. All plans showed a general declining trend in lots created outside settlement areas between 2007-2014. Since 2007, proportionally fewer lots were created outside settlement areas in the Greenbelt compared with the Growth Plan. There was a decrease in dwelling unit creation outside settlement areas across the Greenbelt from 2001-2006 to 2006-2011. The majority of all new dwelling units are located in settlement areas, and comparing 2001-2006 with 2006-2011, this trend increased across the Greenbelt. Comparing 2001-2006 with 2006-2011, proportionally fewer dwelling units were created outside settlement areas in the Greenbelt compared to the Growth Plan. 12 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
NOTES: 2015, Queen s Printer for Ontario. Information provided by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, under licence with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. Information displayed on this map has been compiled from various sources. While every effort has been made to accurately depict the information, this map should not be relied on as being a precise indicator of locations of features. Settlement boundaries reflect 2005 municipal Official Plans. For precise boundaries and locations of Settlement Areas (Towns/Villages and Hamlets) the appropriate municipalities should be consulted. DIRECTING URBAN GROWTH Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe Context Map of Settlement Areas Illustrative Diagram: Settlement Area Classification Settlement Areas (e.g., hamlets) Greenbelt Settlement Areas (e.g., towns and villages) Settlement Areas (e.g., cities) Outside Settlement Areas PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 13
DIRECTING URBAN GROWTH LOT CREATION OUTSIDE SETTLEMENT AREAS What are we counting? The growth in lots one acre and greater created outside settlement areas between 2007-2014. Why are we counting this? The Protected Countryside policies of the Greenbelt Plan (PC), Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (ORMCP) and Niagara Escarpment Plan (NEP) all help direct growth to existing settlement areas by way of specific lot creation policies that discourage significant lot creation outside settlement areas. The presence of new lots one acre and greater can signify the potential for new rural residential development outside settlement areas. By measuring lot creation as a general proxy for development we get an idea of how well the three plans contribute to directing urban growth to settlement areas. Results All of the three plans have relatively low rates of lot creation over the seven year period of 2007-2014. The overall growth rate for the entire Greenbelt (GB) was 1.3 per cent (approx. 720 new lots), while individually, the Protected Countryside was 1.5 per cent (approx. 470 new lots), the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan was 1.0 per cent (approx. 140 new lots), the Niagara Escarpment Plan was 1.0 per cent (approx. 110 new lots) compared with a rate of 3.0 per cent (approx. 3560 new lots) for the Growth Plan (excluding the Greenbelt). 14 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
DIRECTING URBAN GROWTH Consideration Lots less than one acre were filtered out of these totals to avoid counting smaller undevelopable parcels and focus on potential for rural residential development. All plans may permit lot creation outside settlement areas in certain circumstances, such as infrastructure, lot additions and permitted uses. All plans recognize some amount of grandfathering and transitioning of development approvals which may appear in these results. Data Used Municipal Property Assessment Corporation parcel fabric 2007-2014. Settlement and boundaries taken from the GB, ORMCP and NEP (2005) and Growth Plan (2006). ANNUAL RATE OF LOT CREATION OUTSIDE SETTLEMENT AREAS What are we counting? The annual rate of lot creation outside settlement areas across the entire Greater Golden Horseshoe from 2007 to 2014. Why are we counting this? This measure looks at Greater Golden Horseshoe trends in lot creation outside settlement areas to see if there is a noticeable pattern over the past seven years given the common policy direction in the plans to steer development towards settlement areas. PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 15
DIRECTING URBAN GROWTH Results From 2007-2014, the annual rate of lot creation outside settlement areas fluctuated in each of the three plans. However, the trendline for each of the three plans across the changing annual growth rates shows a common slow decline in the growth of new lots outside settlement areas. Considerations Lots less than one acre were filtered out of these totals to avoid counting smaller undevelopable parcels and focus on potential for rural residential development. All plans may permit some lot creation outside settlement areas in certain circumstances, such as infrastructure, lot additions and permitted uses. All plans recognize some amount of grandfathering and transitioning of development approvals which may appear in these results. Data Used Municipal Property Assessment Corporation parcel fabric 2007-2014. Settlement and boundaries taken from the GB, ORMCP and NEP (2005) and Growth Plan (2006). DISTRIBUTION OF LOT CREATION OUTSIDE SETTLEMENT AREAS What are we counting? The distribution of all existing lots one acre and greater created outside settlement areas across the Greater Golden Horseshoe area as of 2007, compared with the distribution of lots one acre and greater created outside settlement areas over the last seven years between 2007 and 2014. Why are we counting this? In contrast to the previous indicator, this measure reviews the change in distribution of lots created outside settlement areas over the past seven years in comparison to the historical trend as of 2007. We are comparing the proportion of these lots in the Greenbelt to the Growth Plan (excluding the Greenbelt) as a control to see if the Protected Countryside policies, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan have helped to discourage new lot creation outside settlement areas in the past few years. Credit: Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation 16 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
DIRECTING URBAN GROWTH Results As of 2007, approximately 32 per cent of all lots one acre and greater created outside settlement areas across the Greater Golden Horseshoe were found in the Greenbelt. Since 2007, approximately 4270 new lots one acre and greater were created in the Greater Golden Horseshoe outside settlement areas. Of these new lots, only 17 per cent were found in the Greenbelt. Considerations Lots less than one acre were discounted from these totals to avoid counting smaller undevelopable parcels and focus on potential for rural residential development. All plans may permit some lot creation outside settlement areas in certain circumstances, such as infrastructure, lot additions and permitted uses. All plans recognize some amount of grandfathering and transitioning of development approvals which may appear in these results. Data Used Municipal Property Assessment Corporation parcel fabric 2007-2014. Settlement and boundaries taken from the GB, ORMCP and NEP (2005) and Growth Plan (2006). Credit: Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 17
DIRECTING URBAN GROWTH DWELLING UNIT GROWTH OUTSIDE SETTLEMENT AREAS What are we counting? The growth in dwelling units created outside settlement areas from 2001-2006 compared to 2006-2011 in the Greenbelt. Why are we counting this? The Protected Countryside, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan all help direct growth to existing settlement areas and discourage significant dwelling unit creation outside settlement areas. The presence of new dwelling units outside settlement areas can signify how well these plans contribute to directing urban growth to settlement areas. Results Growth in dwelling units outside settlement areas declined from 2001-2006 to 2006-2011 in both the Protected Countryside and the Oak Ridges Moraine. The decline was from 4.1 per cent to 1.1 per cent for the Protected Countryside, and from 9.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent for the Oak Ridges Moraine. In the NEP, growth in dwelling units outside settlement areas increased from 0.9 per cent in 2001-2006 to 3.2 per cent in 2006-2011. This change may be explained in part by grandfathered development approvals emerging. Overall, there was a significant reduction in the number of dwelling units created outside settlement areas in the 2006-2011 period compared with 2001-2006. 18 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
DIRECTING URBAN GROWTH Considerations All plans recognize some amount of grandfathering and transitioning of development approvals which may permit some dwelling unit creation outside settlement areas. Some dissemination block totals in Escarpment Natural Areas in Hamilton, and totals in Peterborough County and Kawartha Lakes were removed after further analysis. Data Used Statistics Canada census data (2001, 2006, 2011) and dissemination block boundaries. Municipal Property Assessment Corporation parcel fabric 2006 and 2011. Settlement and boundaries taken from the GB, ORMCP and NEP (2005) and Growth Plan (2006). PERCENTAGE OF NEW DWELLING UNITS CREATED IN SETTLEMENT AREAS (2001-2006 VS. 2006-2011) What are we counting? The percentage of new dwelling units created in settlement areas between 2001-2006 and those created between 2006-2011. Why are we counting this? The Protected Countryside, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan aim to direct growth away from rural areas and direct the majority of development to settlement areas. By measuring the percentage of all new dwelling units created in settlement areas it may signify the success of the three plans in properly directing urban growth. PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 19
DIRECTING URBAN GROWTH Results In both the Protected Countryside and Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan the percentage of new dwelling units created in settlement areas increased from the 2001-2006 period to the 2006-2011 time period. In the Niagara Escarpment Plan the percentage declined from 2001-2006 to 2006-2011 which may be explained in part by grandfathered development approvals emerging outside settlement areas combined with a lower total of new dwelling units than the other plans. In contrast, the Growth Plan (excluding the Greenbelt) has a very high percentage of new dwelling units being created in settlement areas, with a steady 98 per cent over the past 10 years. Considerations As the Growth Plan totals include the highly urbanized core of Toronto and surrounding communities, the sheer number of dwelling units created in these areas will strongly contribute to the very high percentage of all dwelling units being created within settlement boundaries when contrasted with less urbanized settlements of the Greenbelt. Data Used Statistics Canada census data (2001, 2006, 2011) and dissemination block boundaries. Municipal Property Assessment Corporation parcel fabric 2006 and 2011. Settlement and boundaries taken from the GB, ORMCP and NEP (2005) and Growth Plan (2006). DISTRIBUTION OF DWELLING UNIT GROWTH OUTSIDE SETTLEMENT AREAS What are we counting? The distribution of all existing dwelling units located outside settlement areas across the Greater Golden Horseshoe up to 2006, compared with the distribution of new dwelling units created outside settlement areas between 2001-2006 and between 2006-2011. Why are we counting this? In contrast to the previous indicator, this measure looks to see if the distribution of dwelling units created outside settlement areas has changed when comparing the 2001-2006 period with the more recent 2006-2011 period. We are comparing the proportion of these dwelling units in the Greenbelt with the proportion in the Growth Plan (excluding the Greenbelt) to see if the Protected Countryside policies, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan have helped to discourage increased levels of dwelling unit creation outside of settlement areas. 20 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
DIRECTING URBAN GROWTH Results Between 2001-2006, approximately 28 per cent of all units created outside settlement areas across the Greater Golden Horseshoe were found in the Greenbelt. Between 2006-2011, the proportion declined to 23 per cent. Considerations All plans recognize some amount of grandfathering and transitioning of development approvals which may appear in these results, and may permit some non-settlement dwelling units. Some dissemination block totals in Escarpment Natural Areas in Hamilton, and totals in Peterborough County and Kawartha Lakes were removed after further analysis. Data Used Statistics Canada census data (2001, 2006, 2011) and dissemination block boundaries. Municipal Property Assessment Corporation parcel fabric 2006 and 2011. Settlement and boundaries taken from the GB, ORMCP and NEP (2005) and Growth Plan (2006). Credit: Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 21
NATURAL HERITAGE and CONNECTIVITY NATURAL HERITAGE AND CONNECTIVITY The Natural Heritage System within the Greenbelt s Protected Countryside designation includes those areas with the highest concentrations of the most sensitive and/or significant natural features and functions. These areas are to be managed as a connected and integrated natural heritage system. The Greenbelt Plan requires municipalities to protect natural heritage systems. It identifies a Natural Heritage System (Schedule 4 of the Greenbelt Plan) as a guiding framework to help reach this goal. It also lists the key natural heritage and key hydrologic features, which are to be identified and protected from development and site alteration. The Oak Ridges Moraine is an environmentally sensitive, geological landform in south-central Ontario, covering 470,000 acres providing a number of benefits, most notably its function as a water recharge and discharge system. The Moraine s groundwater provides clean drinking water to more than 250,000 people. The Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan contains a natural heritage system made up of Natural Core Areas (concentrations of natural heritage features) and Natural Linkage Areas (linkages between the Natural Core Areas and along rivers and stream corridors). Only minimal compatible development is permitted in these sensitive areas. The Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan identifies key natural heritage features and hydrologically sensitive features where only very restricted uses are permitted. The Niagara Escarpment Plan provides for the protection of the Niagara Escarpment and land in its vicinity as a continuous natural environment with only compatible development permitted. The Escarpment Natural Area (the most restrictive designation which protects the most sensitive features of the Escarpment) and the Escarpment Protection Area (which buffers the most prominently sensitive Escarpment features and natural areas) together are considered to be a natural system which connects to the natural heritage systems of the Greenbelt and Oak Ridges Moraine. Key Findings As of 2000-2002, the percentage of Protected Countryside, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan covered by woodlands was 28 per cent, 38 per cent and 49 per cent respectively. As of 2000-2002, the percentage of Protected Countryside, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan covered by mapped wetlands was 17 per cent, 7 per cent and 9 per cent respectively. 22 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
NOTES: 2015, Queen s Printer for Ontario. Information provided by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, under licence with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. Information displayed on this map has been compiled from various sources. While every effort has been made to accurately depict the information, this map should not be relied on as being a precise indicator of locations of features. NATURAL HERITAGE and CONNECTIVITY Context Map of Natural Heritage Systems Illustrative Diagram: Natural Heritage System Components Protected Countryside Natural Heritage System Oak Ridges Moraine Natural Core Area & Natural Linkage Area Niagara Escarpment Natural Area & Escarpment Protection Area Greenbelt PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 23
NATURAL HERITAGE and CONNECTIVITY PERCENTAGE OF WOODLAND COVER (2000-2002) What are we counting? The percentage of Protected Countryside, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan covered by woodlands in 2000-2002 as a baseline number, to compare with future data. Why are we counting this? The Protected Countryside policies of the Greenbelt Plan, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan all help protect woodlands as an important natural feature. These policies permit very limited development to occur within these features. By measuring the extent of these woodlands over time with additional data for comparison, we hope to see how well the three plans are contributing to protecting these important features. Results The woodland cover in 2000-2002 ranged from 28 per cent in the Protected Countryside to 38 per cent in the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan to 49 per cent in the Niagara Escarpment Plan. Considerations These totals reflect the differences in the landscape covered by the three plans. Both the Protected Countryside and Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan may have limited woodland cover as they generally contain a larger mix of urban, rural countryside and agricultural areas than the Niagara Escarpment Plan. 24 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
NATURAL HERITAGE and CONNECTIVITY Data Used Southern Ontario Land Resource Information System (SOLRIS 2000-2002), version 1.2, April 2008. SOLRIS provides an inventory of natural lands in Ecoregion 6E and 7E, current to 2000-2002. The minimum size of woodland captured is generally 1.2 acres. For the purposes of this indicator forested swamps were included as woodlands. A forested swamp is a type of wetland characterized by a cover of deciduous or coniferous trees. It is a wooded wetland with 25 per cent cover or more of trees or tall shrubs. Settlement and boundaries taken from the GB, ORMCP and NEP (2005). PERCENTAGE OF MAPPED WETLAND COVER (2000-2002) What are we counting? The percentage of the Protected Countryside, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan covered by mapped wetlands in 2000-2002 as a baseline number, which may be compared with future data. This indicator includes all wetlands mapped by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF). It includes wetlands evaluated or confirmed by MNRF in accordance with the Ontario Wetland Evaluation System (OWES) or wetlands identified through mapping. Why are we counting this? The Protected Countryside policies of the Greenbelt Plan, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan help protect wetlands from development, with limited exceptions. By measuring the changes in wetland cover over time, we hope to evaluate the effectiveness of the three plans policies in protecting these features. PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 25
NATURAL HERITAGE and CONNECTIVITY Results Wetland cover in 2000-2002 varied from 17 per cent of the Protected Countryside, to 7 per cent of the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan, to 9 per cent of the Niagara Escarpment Plan. Wetlands across the Greenbelt averaged 12 per cent. Considerations In general, wetlands do make up a small percentage of the landcover, not only in these three plans, but in southern Ontario as well. Data Used Southern Ontario Land Resource Information System (SOLRIS 2000-2002), version 1.2, April 2008. SOLRIS provides an inventory of natural lands in Ecoregions 6E and 7E, current to 2000-2002. The minimum size of wetland captured is generally 1.2 acres. For the purposes of this indicator forested swamps were included as wetlands. A forested swamp is a type of wetland characterized by a cover of deciduous or coniferous trees. It is a wooded wetland with 25 per cent cover or more of trees or tall shrubs. Settlement and boundaries taken from the GB, ORMCP and NEP (2005). Credit: Tim Hagen 26 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
WATER WATER The Greenbelt Plan (Protected Countryside) identifies a Water Resource System that is made up of both ground and surface water and their associated functions. The Water Resource System provides the water resources necessary to sustain healthy aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and human water consumption. The Water Resource System together with the Natural Heritage System makes up the Greenbelt Natural System. These two systems often coincide given the ecological linkages between terrestrial and water based functions. The Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and the Niagara Escarpment Plan each include significant elements that are fundamental to the Water Resource System. This includes primary recharge, headwater and discharge areas as well as major drinking water aquifers within the Greenbelt. The Water Resource System is connected to and supports broader natural systems in Southern Ontario such as the Great Lakes Coast, Carolinian Zone and the Kawartha Highlands. The Protected Countryside includes several areas of hydrological significance including: The upper reaches of watersheds draining to Lake Ontario and west of the Niagara Escarpment; Lands around the primary discharge zones along the toe of the Niagara Escarpment and base of the Oak Ridges Moraine; The major river valleys that extend from the Oak Ridges Moraine and Niagara Escarpment to Lake Ontario; The portions of the Lake Simcoe Watershed and the former Lake Algonquin shoreline within York and Durham Regions; and The former Lake Iroquois shoreline in Durham and Niagara Regions. The numerous watersheds, subwatersheds and groundwater resources including the network of tributaries that support the major river systems identified in the Greenbelt Plan are critical to the long-term health, sustainability of of water resources, biodiversity and overall ecological integrity. The Water Resource System policies aim to protect, improve and/or restore the quality and quantity of water, including both ground and surface water features such as lakes, rivers and streams. To help achieve this goal, the plans policies encourage and at times require watershed plans to manage natural resources and human activities in an area defined by watershed boundaries. Key Findings 70 per cent of the Greenbelt is covered by completed watershed plans, compared with 35 per cent for an area outside the Greenbelt but within the jurisdiction of the 14 Conservation Authorities (p. 28). PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 27
NOTES: 2015, Queen s Printer for Ontario. Information provided by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, under licence with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. Information displayed on this map has been compiled from various sources. While every effort has been made to accurately depict the information, this map should not be relied on as being a precise indicator of locations of features. WATER Context Map of Conservation Authority Administrative Areas What is a Watershed? An area of land that collects rain and snow, and drains it into a body of water, such as a lake, river, marsh or stream. Watershed Scale Watersheds can be broken down into smaller scales. Conservation Authority Mandate Conservation Authorities protect and manage water and natural resources in partnership with government, landowners, and other agencies. 28 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
WATER PERCENTAGE OF WATERSHED PLAN COVERAGE IN THE GREENBELT What are we counting? The percentage of the Greenbelt covered by completed watershed plans, compared with areas outside the Greenbelt but within the jurisdiction of the 14 Conservation Authorities (Context Map, p.28). These percentages act as a baseline indicator. For additional information on watershed conditions such as amount of hardened surfaces and natural cover, please refer to the Performance Indicators for the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Why are we counting this? All three plans encourage watershed planning and management to protect and manage water resources, and guide planning and development decisions. The Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan specifically requires the completion of watershed plans prior to major development. By measuring the status of watershed planning across the Greenbelt, we hope to see how well the three plans are contributing to watershed protection and management. Results 70 per cent of the Greenbelt is covered by completed watershed plans, including 85 per cent of the Protected Countryside, 80 per cent of the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan, and 30 per cent of the Niagara Escarpment Plan. In comparison, 35 per cent of the land area outside of the Greenbelt (within the jurisdiction of 14 conservation authorities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe) is covered by completed watershed plans. PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 29
WATER Considerations Watershed planning is likely highest in the PC and ORMCP due to their proximity to urban areas with greater development pressures and more resources and financial support. The data totals are based on detailed subwatershed plans and do not include data where Conservation Authorities have completed broad-level watershed plans for their entire jurisdiction. The data broadly measures watershed plan completion, but does not compare methodologies, nor measure on the ground implementation. Some area calculations may include portions of subwatersheds which lie outside of the Greenbelt. Data Used Detailed summaries of the watershed plan status provided by 14 Conservation Authorities as of summer 2014. Settlement and boundaries taken from the Greenbelt Plan (February 2005). Credit: Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation Credit: Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation 30 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan PART 1, 2015
NEXT STEPS NEXT STEPS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION These are the first performance indicators to help understand trends in the Greenbelt. We are working towards performance indicators for the remaining themes: Aggregates Infrastructure Strong Rural Communities Agricultural Economy Tourism, Recreation and Cultural Heritage Additional Information To see where the Greenbelt is in relation to where you live, work and play, visit the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry s Natural Heritage Make a Map site (ontario.ca/environment-andenergy/make-natural-heritage-area-map) or the Ministry of Transportation s icorridor site (mto.gov. on.ca/icorridor/). Accessible formats and communications support are available on request. Contact Provincial Planning Policy Branch Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing 777 Bay Street, 13th floor Toronto, ON M5G 2E5 Tel: 416.585.6014, or 1.877.711.8208 Email: greenbelt@ontario.ca Website: ontario.ca/greenbelt Credit: Friends of the Greenbelt Foundation PART 1, 2015 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS for the greenbelt plan 31
Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing Queen s Printer for Ontario, 2015 ISBN 978-1-4606-5417-0 (Print) ISBN 978-1-4606-5419-4 (PDF) 2K/03/15 Disponible en français