New and Used Aircraft Trends and Developments in the Baltic Business Aviation Market Rob Morris Senior Aviation Analyst Ascend a Flightglobal Advisory Service 11 April 213 1
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Global Presence
Aircraft In Service The Baltic Business Aviation Fleet is Growing 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Helicopter Biz Prop VLJ Entry Level Light Light / Medium Medium BizLiner Source Ascend Online Fleets
Aircraft In Service - Europe Aircraft in Service Baltic States Fleet Trend has Diverged Since 28 4, 3 3,5 25 3, 2 2,5 15 2, 1 1,5 5 1, Europe Baltic States Source Ascend Online Fleets
Fleet Fleet Evenly Distributed Across Region 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Estonia Latvia Lithuania BizProp VLJ Entry Level Light Light / Medium Medium Source Ascend Online Fleets
Share of Fleet Relatively More Air Taxi / Charter Aircraft 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Baltic States Europe World Air Taxi / Executive Charter Private / Corporate Fractional Other Source Ascend Online Fleets
Fleet Diverse Fleet Dominated by Light / Medium Types 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 BizProp Citation Mustang Premier I Learjet 25 Learjet 31 125/ Hawker Learjet 45 Learjet 6 Challenger Source Ascend Online Fleets
Aircraft in Service Global Business Jet Fleet Continues to Grow 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 VLJ Entry Level Light Light / Medium Medium Heavy BizLiner Source Ascend Online Fleets
Aircraft Sales % of Global Fleet Traded Global Business Jet Used Aircraft Sales Recovering 4, 4% 3,5 35% 3, 3% 2,5 25% 2, 2% 1,5 15% 1, 1% 5 5% 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 % VLJ Entry Level Light Light / Medium Medium Heavy % of Fleet Traded Source Ascend Online Fleets
Aircraft Offered For Sale Used Aircraft Inventories Stable 6 5 4 3 2 1 Q1-211 Q3-211 Q1-212 Q3-212 Q1-213 Learjet 6 Learjet 6XR Source Ascend Analysis of Controller.com Listings
New Aircraft Deliveries Reduced Demand Since 28 Bottoming Out.. 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 VLJ Entry Level Light Light / Medium Medium Heavy BizLiner Source Ascend Online Fleets
Share of Aircraft Deliveries.and Showing Move to Larger Aircraft 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 VLJ Entry Level Light Light / Medium Medium Heavy BizLiner Source Ascend Online Fleets
New Models Expected to Stimulate Demand
CMV ($mn) Used Aircraft Values Starting to Recover? 16 Learjet 6 Constant Age Values 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Years 5 Years 1 Years 15 Years Source Ascend V1 Online Values
213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 23 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 24 241 242 Base Value ($213mn) Future Value Outlook 9 Lear 6 Future Base Values 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 29 Build 26 Build 24 Build 2 Build 1995 Build Source Ascend V1 Online Values
213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 23 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 24 241 242 Base Value ($213mn) Future Value Outlook 1 Hawker 125 Future Base Values 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 29 9XP 27 85XP Source Ascend V1 Online Values
Summary Business / Corporate aircraft fleet in Baltic States continues to grow Current fleet dominated by light / medium types Opportunity to add heavy (large, long-range types)? Global fleet growth expected to return in 213 Significant element of future demand stimulated by new models Used aircraft inventories stable Used aircraft sale volumes and values starting to recover Future value outlook stable
Rob Morris Senior Analyst +44 ()2 8564 6735 +44 ()773 213 189 rob.morris@ascendworldwide.com Ascend World Business Centre 2 Newall Road Heathrow Airport London TW6 2SF