ACRP Project 03-17: Evaluating Airfield Capacity

ATLANTA, GEORGIA 1

2 ATLANTA, GEORGIA Planning Session 4: Airside Capacity Analysis Tools and Techniques ACRP Project 03-17: Evaluating Airfield Capacity December 6, 2011 Bill Dunlay Director LeighFisher Inc. bill.dunlay@leighfisher.com

Objectives of Research Present capacity modeling guidelines for Determining the appropriate level of modeling sophistication Applying models to specific airfield and airspace situations Develop Guidebook for airport planners All types of airports Runways, taxiways, and approach/departure procedures Assess existing modeling techniques beyond AC 150/5060-5 and FAA Airfield Capacity Model (ACM) Develop specifications and functional prototype for a new model Select one or more models for improvement or development An initial step toward updating Advisory Circular AC 150/5060-5, Airport Capacity and Delay 3

ACRP Project 03-17 Panel Panel and ACRP Support Rick Busch, Denver Chair Greg Albjerg, HNTB Monica Alcabin, Boeing David Byers, FIT Nancy Dorighi, NASA Bruce Love, URS Scott Marsh, PANY&NJ ACRP Support Theresia Schatz, ACRP Joseph Snell, ACRP Liaison members Aimee McCormick, FAA Chris Oswald, ACI-NA Kent Duffy, FAA Don Guffey, FAA Richard Cunard, TRB Timmy RoIf Schindler, GAO 4

ACRP 03-17 Project Team LeighFisher Bill Dunlay, PI, and Suzanne Akkoush, Project Manager Landrum & Brown Matt Lee, Deputy, PI, and Pam Keidel-Adams (WSA) University of California, Berkeley Mark Hansen George Mason University Lance Sherry Presentation & Design, Inc. Patti J. Douglas LeighFisher and Landrum & Brown decided to join forces for this project 5

ACRP 03-17 Deliverables 1. Guidebook 2. Decision Hierarchy How to Choose a Level of Modeling Sophistication 3. New and Newly Available Tools a. Spreadsheet Tools b. MITRE runwaysimulator Initial Public Offering 4. Final Report Project deliverables will provide comprehensive tools for evaluating airfield capacity 6

Guidebook Outline Chapters 1. Introduction and Roadmap 2. Review of Airfield Capacity Concepts 3. Existing Airfield Capacity Evaluation Tools 4. New and Newly Available Capacity Evaluation Tools 5. How to Select the Level of Modeling Sophistication 6. Subsequent Uses of Capacity Information Appendices A. User s Guide for Spreadsheet Model B. Available Guidance on MITRE runwaysimulator C. Definitions of Terms D. Essential References and Data Sources E. Case Studies lessons learned 7

Chapter 1: Introduction and Roadmap 1. Introduction 2. Overview 3. Who Should Use This Guidebook? 4. Need for Updating Airfield Capacity Evaluation Methods and Guidance 8

9 Chapter 2: Review of Airfield Capacity Concepts 1. Airport and Airside Components 2. Airport and Airspace Operating Environment 3. Factors that Affect Capacity 4. Levels of Capacity Modeling Sophistication 21 Factors Airport Geometry Runway Exit Design Runway Entrance Taxiways Staging Pads/Taxiways Runway Crossings Parallel Taxiway Airport User Information Aircraft Fleet Mix Daily Demand Distribution Aircraft Performance Avionics Equipage Braking Action Random Variability Runway Use & ATC Procedures Applicability of Visual Flight Rules Wake Turbulence Weather Multiple Approach Technology Runway Specific Fleet Mix Human Factors Air Traffic Controller Workload Air-Ground Communications Random Variability Airspace Factors Departure Fix Restrictions Neighboring Airports Missed Approach

10 Levels of Modeling Sophistication

Chapter 3: Existing Airfield Capacity Evaluation Tools 1. Model Descriptions and Attributes: a. Applications and data requirements b. Model assumptions, inputs, outputs, and limitations c. Time, cost, and training requirements d. Model availability, limitations, and identified gaps 2. Existing Level 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 Models 11

Chapter 4: New and Newly Available Capacity Evaluation Tools and Guidance 1. New Spreadsheet Models (Levels 1, 2, and 3) 2. Newly Available Level 4 Model MITRE runwaysimulator 3. Guidance on Estimating Capacity of Specialty Cases a. Effects of partial parallel taxiways and runway crossings b. Effects of staggered runway thresholds/runway ends c. Aircraft type runway-use restrictions d. Airports without an operating Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) 12

13 Chapter 5: How to Select the Level of Modeling Sophistication 1. Hierarchy/Decision Tree (see next 6 slides)

14 Decision Hierarchy 1: Data Requirements / Availability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 mix index mix index fleet mix fleet mix flight schedule runway runway layout simple runway-use complex runway-use airfield layout in CAD layout configuration configuration runway exit final approach speeds final approach speeds arrival-arrival separations locations percent arrivals AROT AROT departure-departure separations touch and go DROT DROT capture distance percent arrival-arrival separations arrival-arrival separations runway dependencies departure-departure departure-departure arrival flight tracks separations separations arrival-departure arrival-departure departure flight tracks separations separations runway dependencies runway usage/assignments

Decision Hierarchy 2: Checklist Items (1 of 3) CRITERION VALUE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 How much time/budget is available? Hours/<$5k Days/<$25k Weeks/<$50k Months/$100k+ CRITERION VALUE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Purpose of the capacity analysis? Airfield changes New Runway New Taxiway/Apron/Gates Runway crossings NAVAID critical areas Effects of air traffic control towers Airspace Changes Changes in flight procedures Noise abatement procedures In-trail terminal airspace restrictions Multiple approach procedures Changes in ATC rules and separations ATC workload and human factors NextGen benefits Aircraft Changes Aircraft fleet mix and stage length changes To estimate aircraft delay To estimate ASV/hourly capacity To compare with hourly demand To benchmark with other airports To evaluate flight schedules To compare alternative improvements To provide data for follow-on environmental studies 15

16 Decision Hierarchy 2: Checklist Items (2 of 3) CRITERION VALUE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 What data do you have avaliable? Airfield Data runway usage/assignments runway layout runway exit locations runway dependencies AROT DROT airfield layout in CAD Aircraft Data percent arrivals mix index flight schedule fleet mix final approach speeds Airspace Data departure-departure separations departure-departure separations departure flight tracks capture distance arrival-departure separations arrival-arrival separations arrival-arrival separations arrival flight tracks

17 Decision Hierarchy 2: Checklist Items (3 of 3) CRITERION VALUE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 What factors do you need to capture? Geometry Impact of runway exit taxiway location Supporting Taxiways Departure queue sequencing Runway crossings Parallel taxiway Aircraft performance Impact of runway occupancy time Runway Use Runway-specific fleet mix (due to noise or length) Multiple approach technology Airspace Departure fix restrictions Limited departure headings CRITERION VALUE Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Public scrutiny by or challenge from airport Public Scrutiny and/or its stakeholders? Little or no scrutiny or challenge Low level of scrutiny or challenge Moderate level of scrutiny or challenge Intense level of scrutiny or challenge

18 Decision Hierarchy 3: Questionnaire (1 of 2) LEVEL 1 1 Do the standard default assumptions in the lookup differ from your situation? (i.e., parallel taxiway, ILS runway, etc) 2 Do you need to take a specific runway use into account? If you answered NO to all of these questions, use a Level 1 model If you answered YES to any of these questions, go to Level 2 section LEVEL 2 1 Do you have three or more runways? 2 Do you have a dependent arrival/departure runway operation? 3 Will the results be subject to a high level of scrutiny, challenge, or controversy? 4 Do you need to represent the fleet mix in more detail than the "mix index"? 5 Do you need to consider detailed runway occupancy time data? 6 Do you need to reflect a change in aircraft separations? (i.e., improved approach procedure) 7 Do you have runway crossings which interrupt your arrival/departure flow? 8 Are you assessing operations during weather conditions other than VMC or IMC? If you answered NO to all of these questions, use a Level 2 model If you answered YES to any of these questions, go to Level 3 section

LEVEL 4 1 Do you need to consider a detailed matched flight schedule? 2 Do you need to model the full airport system, including gates, apron,and taxilanes? 3 Are you considering taxiways, other than runway exit taxiways or full-length parallel taxiways? 4 Do you have airspace conflicts with neighboring airports, restricted airspace, etc.? 5 Do you need to model the terminal airspace? 6 Will there be a need to demonstrate and/or validate the baseline results to stakeholders If you answered NO to all of these questions, use a Level 4 model If you answered YES to any of these questions, use a Level 5 model 19 Decision Hierarchy 3: Questionnaire (2 of 2) LEVEL 3 1 Is the usage of the runway(s) restricted to certain aircraft types (i.e., due to noise abatement or other)? 2 Does the availability of departure fixes/headings restrict operations? 3 Does arrival track geometry impact aircraft separations? 4 Do you have a dependent or converging arrival runway operation? If you answered NO to all of these questions, use a Level 3 model If you answered YES to any of these questions, go to Level 4 section

Chapter 6: Subsequent Uses of Capacity Information 1. Demand-Capacity Comparisons 2. Aircraft Delay Estimation 3. Reference ACRP Project 03-20, Defining and Measuring Aircraft Delay and Airport Capacity Thresholds APPENDICES A. User s Guide for Spreadsheet Model B. Available Guidance on MITRE runwaysimulator C. Definitions of Terms D. Essential References and Data Sources E. Case Studies lessons learned 20

21 Levels of Modeling

New Spreadsheet Tool Addresses 3 levels of modeling sophistication in 1 tool Macro-enabled Excel-based file using tabs Will have 3 model options Single runway Parallel runways Intersecting runways Can calculate hourly capacity and Annual Service Volume (ASV) as defined in FAA AC 150/5060-5, Airport Capacity and Delay 22

23 Spreadsheet Model Airfield Capacity Estimation using Spreadsheet Models Use the spreadsheet model to quickly estimate airfield capacities for Arrivals only, Departures only and Mixed Operations. ENTER OR ADJUST MODEL INPUTS OBSERVE AND EVALUATE OUTPUTS USE RESET BUTTON TO RETURN INPUTS TO DEFAULT SETTINGS INPUTS Light Green fill, with Bold Green text OUTPUTS Blue fill, with Bold White text Reset Inputs Grey fill, with Bold Red text Calculated/Linked Values & Descriptions have white backgrounds Calculated Values Linked Values Comments are attached to Input descriptions to provide understanding/definitions to input titles

Partial Input Screen INPUTS Meteorological Conditions VMC, % Occurrence 90% IMC, % Occurrence 10% VMC-Departure-Arrival Separation 2.0 nm Arrival - Arrival Std. Dev. 18.0 sec IMC-Departure-Arrival Separation 2.0 nm Departure ROT Std. Dev. 6.0 sec Length of Common Approach 7.0 nm Z-Value, 95% Confidence 1.645 ------------ Operations Assumption on Touch -N- Go's 0% T-Factor (Touch-N-Go's) 1.00 RESET INPUTS Aircraft Classification New Category Small - S Small - T Small + Large-TP Large-Jet Large-757 Heavy Previous FAA Category A B C C C C D Maximum Gross Takeoff Weight (MTOW) Less than 12,500 lbs (Single Engine) Less than 12,500 lbs (Twin Engine) Between 12,500 lbs and 41,000 lbs Between 41,000 lbs and 255,000 lbs Between 41,000 lbs and 255,000 lbs Boeing 757 Series More than 300,000 lbs Fleet Mix Enter the actual or expected % share each aircraft class Share Allocations 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% Arrival Runway Occupancy Time Enter the estimated time from touchdown to runway clearance Time in Seconds 35 40 42 48 52 55 60 Average Approach Speeds Enter the average suggested manufacturers final approach speed under normal conditions Velocity in Knots 80 90 115 130 135 140 150 Runway Exit Availability Excellent (4 or more Exits) 100% Runway Crossing Demand No 0 Full Parallel Taxiway ACRP 03-17: Full Evaluating Taxiway 1.00Airfield Approach Capacity Control Radar Yes Availability Use Advanced Settings to change ATC procedures and adjust Arrival/Departure mix and priority 24

Advanced Features Example Use Advanced Settings to change ATC procedures and adjust Arrival/Departure mix and priority Arrival Gap Spacing Buffer 0.0 sec <----OR----> Arrival Gap Spacing Buffer 1.0 nmiles Departure Hold Buffer 0.0 sec Arrival-Arrival Separation Requirements Distance in Nautical Miles (nm) Trailing Aircraft Leading Aircraft VMC IMC Small-S --- Heavy Small-S, Small-T 1.9 3.0 3 Alternate IMC Minimum Small-S --- Small+ Small + 1.9 3.0 3 (if Observed AROT < 50 Seconds) Large --- Heavy Small + 1.9 3.0 3 Use 2.5 nm in place of 3.0 nm? Small-S --- Small+ Large-TP, Jet 2.7 4.0 No Large --- Heavy Large-TP, Jet 1.9 3.0 3 Small-S --- Small+ Large-757 3.7 5.0 Large --- Heavy Large-757 2.7 4.0 Small-S --- Small-T Heavy 4.6 6.0 Small + --- 757 Heavy 3.6 5.0 Heavy Heavy 2.7 4.0 Departure - Departure Separation Requirements Time in Seconds Trailing Aircraft Leading Aircraft VMC IMC Small-S --- Small + Small-S- Small + 35 60 Large -TP --- Large 757 Small-S- Small + 45 60 Heavy Small-S- Small + 50 60 Small-S --- Small+ Large 50 60 Large --- Heavy Large 60 60 Small-S --- Large 757 Heavy 120 120 Heavy Heavy 90 90 25

Arrivals/Hour Partial Output Screen OUTPUTS VMC IMC Average Arrivals Only Capacity 34 26 33 Arrivals Only Capacity (including TNG's) 34 26 33 Departures Only Capacity 60 60 60 Mixed Ops - Departure Capacity (including TNG's) 34 26 33 Total Mixed Operations Capacity 67 52 66 Arrivals Percentage 50% 50% 50% Capacity estimates for: Arrival priority Departure priority Various percentages of arrivals Pareto Frontier Chart Selection VMC 40 VMC Arrival -Departure Ca Save - 35 Used for Graphing only! 34, 34 30 0, 34 Used in Graph Departures 25 Arrivals Departures Arrivals Departures Arrivals 0 34 0 26 0 33 0 34 34 20 34 26 26 33 33 34 34 60 0 60 0 60 0 60 0 15 VMC IMC Average 10 5 VMC Arrival -Departure Capacity Frontier 60, 0 Similar to capacity charts in the FAA Airport Capacity Benchmark Report 2004 (and upcoming 2011) 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Departures/Hour 26

MITRE runwaysimulator Initial Public Offering in 2012 The runwaysimulator model is now the FAA s primary runway capacity analysis tool FACT 3 Study 2011 Airport Capacity Benchmark Report MITRE plans to make this model publicly available in 2012 ACRP 03-17 Project will provide an independent assessment of the runwaysimulator for purposes of airfield capacity evaluation Pete Kuzminski of MITRE will cover this model in more detail 27

28 Next Steps 1. Submit draft Guidebook, draft Final Report, and results of modeling tasks to ACRP Panel for review in December 2011 2. Submit final Project deliverables to ACRP by end of January 2012 3. Expect publication of final ACRP Report a few months thereafter