Monthly Employment Watch: Milwaukee and the Nation's Largest Cities

Monthly Employment Watch: Milwaukee and the Nation's Largest Cities A monthly report on employment trends in the nation s largest cities Prepared by: The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development February 2009 For further information contact: Professor Marc V. Levine Telephone: 414-229-6155 E-Mail: veblen@uwm.edu

About This Report Each month, the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development, drawing on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, monitors employment trends in Milwaukee and the nation s 50 largest cities. In addition, the Center also compares employment trends in Milwaukee to a smaller and more directly comparable group of peer cities, the 20 largest cities of the Northeast-Midwest Frostbelt region. Each month, the data compiled by the Center display year-over-year total employment for three different time periods: a) the most recent year (2007-); b) the past four years (2004-), since the current mayoral administration took office (the last political cycle); and c) since 2000, the peak of the last business cycle. By looking at three different time periods, and two different samples of cities, we hope to provide a fuller sense of how Milwaukee s employment growth stacks up against other big cities over time, and how Milwaukee s position has changed over time.

The Monthly Employment Watch: The federal government s stimulus package cannot come quickly enough for the deteriorating labor market in Milwaukee and big cities across the country. According to preliminary city employment data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for, the recession that has gripped Milwaukee for almost a year and a half continues to intensify. For the 17 th consecutive month, the city saw employment fall compared to the same month a year earlier, by 5,090 residents in compared to 2007 (a decline of 2.04%). This is the largest year-over-year employment decline in any month since the recession began locally in August 2007, and the city s preliminary employment total of 244,248 is the lowest reported for that month by the BLS since the current data series began in 1990. As Table 1 shows, employment decline appeared to be slowing in the city of Milwaukee in the early months of ; however, the employment losses since May make clear that this labor market contraction shows no sign of relenting. The employment losses reported in Milwaukee in November and are substantially greater than earlier in the year, a sign that the trough of this recession is far from evident. Clearly, the financial meltdown of September, the continuing travails of manufacturing, and the sharp decline this fall and winter in consumer spending continue to take a serious toll on Milwaukee s labor market indeed, on urban labor markets throughout the country. Table 1: Monthly Year-over-Year Employment Change in the City of Milwaukee* Month Employment Change % Change July (2006-2007) +617 +0.25% August -156-0.06% September -709-0.28% October -2,266-0.90% November -2,366-0.93% -3,871-1.53% January (2007-) -4,008-1.61% February -1,938-0.78% March -1,004-0.41% April -582-0.25% May -1,468 0.59% June -3,834-1.52% July -3,395-1.36% August -2,537-1.02% September -2,291-0.92% October -2,552-1.02% November -4,515-1.80% (p) -5,090-2.04% * These figures vary from earlier Monthly Employment Watch tables, which reported preliminary BLS monthly employment estimates. The data in Table 1 reflect revisions and re-estimates by BLS and are considered more accurate.

In fact, among the nation s 50 largest cities, 38 registered year-over-year employment declines in (including, of course, Milwaukee). This compares to 37 cities recording employment decline in November, 27 in October, 24 in September, 20 in August, 14 in May, and only 7 in April, a dramatic sign of the growing national scope of the recession. Paradoxically, though, as hard as the recession is hitting in Milwaukee, our employment decline over the past year is far from the worst experienced among the nation s 50 largest cities. Indeed, Milwaukee s employment performance ranks better among the largest cities over the past year, than compared to our ranking over longer periods (both the 2004- period and the 2000- period). It appears that Milwaukee s longer-term structural decline, relative to other cities, is more severe than the impact of the current business cycle, in which our employment losses place us near the middle of the pack (as opposed to the longer time periods in which we rank near the bottom in employment performance). In, Milwaukee ranked 30 th among the nation s 50 largest cities in the rate of annual employment growth since 2007 (compared to 32 nd in November and 35 th in October). Thus, ironically, even as our employment losses mounted in November and, our relative ranking improved a sign that the recession was beginning to batter other cities even more severely than Milwaukee. In, Milwaukee s annual employment performance ranked 10 th among the nation s 20 largest Northeast-Midwest Frostbelt cities (compared to 11 th in November and 13 th in October). Since the UWMCED Monthly Employment Watch began in June 2007, Milwaukee has consistently ranked well below the median in employment growth in both groups of cities, so these rankings represent an improvement. It remains to be seen whether this is a short-run, cyclical trend resulting from particular, as yet unidentified features of this recession, or whether Milwaukee has begun to improve from the structural decline evident in the longer-term employment trends. At this point, looking at Milwaukee s relative ranking in employment growth between 2004-, or between 2000-, there is little evidence of structural improvement. Since 2004, employment in Milwaukee has shrunk by 5,130 residents (2.06%), placing the city 45 th among the nation s 50 largest cities in employment growth during this period (unchanged from last month). Among the 20 largest Frostbelt cities, Milwaukee ranked 15 th in employment change between 2004- (down from 14 th last month). These rankings confirm, once again, that Milwaukee ranks among the very lowest tier of the nation s largest cities in employment growth since the current mayoral administration took office. Since 2000, near the end of the last national business cycle, employment in Milwaukee has shrunk by 27,283, a massive 10.05% decline. Milwaukee ranks 47 h among the nation s 50 largest cities during this period in employment performance; among Frostbelt cities, we rank 17 th out of 20. Measuring employment at comparable points in the business cycle is the way to assess

structural trends in the labor market (i.e. comparing trough to trough or peak to peak ). Thus, the truly disturbing feature of the current numbers is that, even before reaching the trough of this cycle, we ve already registered a huge 10% employment loss from near the trough of the last business cycle. The city s official unemployment rate jumped from 6.6% in 2007 to 7.9% in. Comparison of unemployment rates in the 50 largest cities reveals that Milwaukee had the 35 th highest unemployment rate among the nation s 50 largest cities; this compares to 36 th in November, 33 rd in October, 32 nd in September, 38 h in August, and 38 h in July. These rankings represent an improvement for Milwaukee over very recent trends; as recently as November 2007, for example, Milwaukee had the nation s 47 th highest big city unemployment rate, compared to 35 th today. Unemployment rates were up sharply in cities across Wisconsin in, standing at 9.0% in Janesville, 10.8% in Racine, and 11.4% in Beloit along with Milwaukee, the hardest hit cities in the state.

Table 2 -- Employment Growth in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities: 2007-2007 % Change 1 Tucson 255,778 259,875 1.60% 2 Virginia Beach 218,101 220,704 1.19% 3 Las Vegas 276,104 279,070 1.07% 4 Houston 991,427 1,001,443 1.01% 5 El Paso 239,409 241,644 0.93% 6 San Antonio 588,796 593,797 0.85% 7 Fort Worth 299,183 301,204 0.68% 8 Phoenix 814,167 818,798 0.57% 9 Mesa City 247,386 248,793 0.57% 10 Albuquerque 256,609 257,078 0.18% 11 San Francisco 419,701 419,864 0.04% 12 Wichita 183,708 183,751 0.02% 13 Dallas 567,577 566,652-0.16% 14 Oklahoma City 246,565 246,096-0.19% 15 San Jose 425,852 424,980-0.20% 16 Omaha 221,470 220,967-0.23% 17 Austin 401,745 400,766-0.24% 18 Philadelphia 579,627 577,950-0.29% 19 San Diego 659,818 657,721-0.32% 20 Honolulu 439,883 438,382-0.34% 21 Fresno 208,226 207,340-0.43% 22 New York 3,672,236 3,632,534-1.08% 23 Portland 287,058 283,829-1.12% 24 Seattle 356,187 352,162-1.13% 25 Columbus 401,597 396,420-1.29% 26 Sacramento 203,690 200,879-1.38% 27 Oakland 182,623 179,791-1.55% 28 Boston 291,265 286,294-1.71% 29 Denver 303,318 298,069-1.73% 30 Milwaukee 249,338 244,248-2.04% 31 Baltimore 259,072 252,920-2.37% 32 Indianapolis 404,456 394,509-2.46% 33 Jacksonville 395,746 385,376-2.62% 34 Miami 170,015 165,507-2.65% 35 Minneapolis 206,424 200,779-2.73% 36 Washington, D.C. 306,969 298,319-2.82% 37 Colorado Springs 208,394 202,395-2.88% 38 Kansas City 219,552 212,745-3.10% 39 Cleveland 170,307 164,945-3.15% 40 Nashville 305,419 295,673-3.19% 41 Louisville 341,925 330,629-3.30% 42 Atlanta 217,911 210,440-3.43% 43 St. Louis 144,283 139,036-3.64% 44 Chicago 1,257,419 1,209,987-3.77% 45 Memphis 298,956 286,235-4.26% 46 Charlotte 325,614 311,282-4.40% 47 Los Angeles 1,827,706 1,736,525-4.99% 48 Long Beach 226,443 215,146-4.99% 49 Detroit 308,340 292,824-5.03% 50 Tulsa 194,622 181,898-6.54%

Table 3 - Employment Growth in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities: 2004-2004 % Change 1 Fort Worth 268,634 301,204 12.12% 2 Mesa City 226,538 248,793 9.82% 3 Phoenix 745,557 818,798 9.82% 4 Miami 151,625 165,507 9.16% 5 Fresno 191,430 207,340 8.31% 6 San Antonio 550,543 593,797 7.86% 7 Seattle 326,769 352,162 7.77% 8 Albuquerque 238,947 257,078 7.59% 9 Tucson 245,379 259,875 5.91% 10 Atlanta 199,963 210,440 5.24% 11 San Jose 404,747 424,980 5.00% 12 Omaha 210,856 220,967 4.80% 13 San Francisco 401,236 419,864 4.64% 14 Jacksonville 369,294 385,376 4.35% 15 Virginia Beach 211,642 220,704 4.28% 16 Wichita 176,532 183,751 4.09% 17 Boston 275,152 286,294 4.05% 18 Houston 963,637 1,001,443 3.92% 19 New York 3,496,654 3,632,534 3.89% 20 Denver 287,764 298,069 3.58% 21 El Paso 233,879 241,644 3.32% 22 Memphis 277,741 286,235 3.06% 23 Colorado Springs 196,444 202,395 3.03% 24 Washington, D.C. 290,272 298,319 2.77% 25 Columbus 386,416 396,420 2.59% 26 Austin 391,053 400,766 2.48% 27 Portland 277,077 283,829 2.44% 28 Sacramento 196,294 200,879 2.34% 29 Las Vegas 272,912 279,070 2.26% 30 San Diego 643,262 657,721 2.25% 31 Honolulu 429,297 438,382 2.12% 32 Nashville 293,191 295,673 0.85% 33 Charlotte 309,034 311,282 0.73% 34 Oakland 179,013 179,791 0.43% 35 Baltimore 253,188 252,920-0.11% 36 Louisville 331,017 330,629-0.12% 37 Chicago 1,215,543 1,209,987-0.46% 38 Indianapolis 397,881 394,509-0.85% 39 Philadelphia 582,999 577,950-0.87% 40 Los Angeles 1,752,538 1,736,525-0.91% 41 Long Beach 217,130 215,146-0.91% 42 Kansas City 215,025 212,745-1.06% 43 Oklahoma City 248,929 246,096-1.14% 44 Dallas 576,874 566,652-1.77% 45 Milwaukee 249,378 244,248-2.06% 46 Minneapolis 208,534 200,779-3.72% 47 Tulsa 191,522 181,898-5.03% 48 St. Louis 147,215 139,036-5.56% 49 Cleveland 175,208 164,945-5.86% 50 Detroit 322,084 292,824-9.08%

Table 4 - Employment Growth in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities: 2000-2000 % Change 1 Mesa City 205,223 248,793 21.23% 2 Phoenix 675,408 818,798 21.23% 3 Las Vegas 238,240 279,070 17.14% 4 Fort Worth 258,074 301,204 16.71% 5 San Antonio 522,357 593,797 13.68% 6 Fresno 183,044 207,340 13.27% 7 Tucson 230,603 259,875 12.69% 8 Miami 149,544 165,507 10.67% 9 Virginia Beach 200,539 220,704 10.06% 10 San Diego 601,035 657,721 9.43% 11 Albuquerque 235,484 257,078 9.17% 12 Sacramento 184,097 200,879 9.12% 13 Colorado Springs 186,551 202,395 8.49% 14 El Paso 222,862 241,644 8.43% 15 Seattle 325,335 352,162 8.25% 16 Houston 927,349 1,001,443 7.99% 17 Atlanta 198,184 210,440 6.18% 18 Wichita 174,389 183,751 5.37% 19 Omaha 211,378 220,967 4.54% 20 New York 3,479,850 3,632,534 4.39% 21 Honolulu 421,217 438,382 4.08% 22 Charlotte 300,412 311,282 3.62% 23 Jacksonville 372,115 385,376 3.56% 24 Austin 394,754 400,766 1.52% 25 Washington, D.C. 293,889 298,319 1.51% 26 Columbus 392,182 396,420 1.08% 27 Denver 298,821 298,069-0.25% 28 Oklahoma City 246,945 246,096-0.34% 29 Long Beach 216,449 215,146-0.60% 30 Los Angeles 1,747,047 1,736,525-0.60% 31 Memphis 295,172 286,235-3.03% 32 Nashville 305,966 295,673-3.36% 33 Portland 294,433 283,829-3.60% 34 Indianapolis 409,553 394,509-3.67% 35 Boston 298,589 286,294-4.12% 36 Baltimore 266,736 252,920-5.18% 37 Philadelphia 610,001 577,950-5.25% 38 Dallas 599,547 566,652-5.49% 39 Oakland 190,681 179,791-5.71% 40 Louisville 350,720 330,629-5.73% 41 Kansas City 226,432 212,745-6.04% 42 Chicago 1,303,297 1,209,987-7.16% 43 Minneapolis 221,012 200,779-9.15% 44 Tulsa 200,445 181,898-9.25% 45 St. Louis 153,863 139,036-9.64% 46 San Francisco 465,706 419,864-9.84% 47 Milwaukee 271,531 244,248-10.05% 48 Cleveland 188,004 164,945-12.27% 49 San Jose 485,784 424,980-12.52% 50 Detroit 355,700 292,824-17.68%

Table 5 - Employment Growth in the 20 Largest Frostbelt Cities 2007-2007 % Change 1 Buffalo 113,785 115,519 1.52% 2 Pittsburgh 143,636 144,003 0.26% 3 Wichita 183,708 183,751 0.02% 4 Omaha 221,470 220,967-0.23% 5 Philadelphia 579,627 577,950-0.29% 6 New York 3,672,236 3,632,534-1.08% 7 Columbus 401,597 396,420-1.29% 8 Cincinnati 157,000 154,467-1.61% 9 Boston 291,265 286,294-1.71% 10 Milwaukee 249,338 244,248-2.04% 11 Baltimore 259,072 252,920-2.37% 12 Indianapolis 404,456 394,509-2.46% 13 St. Paul (MN) 137,560 133,799-2.73% 14 Minneapolis 206,424 200,779-2.73% 15 Washington, D.C. 306,969 298,319-2.82% 16 Kansas City 219,552 212,745-3.10% 17 Cleveland 170,307 164,945-3.15% 18 St. Louis 144,283 139,036-3.64% 19 Chicago 1,257,419 1,209,987-3.77% 20 Detroit 308,340 292,824-5.03%

Table 6- Employment Growth in the 20 Largest Frostbelt Cities 2004-2004 % Change 1 Cincinnati 145,651 154,467 6.05% 2 Omaha 210,856 220,967 4.80% 3 Wichita 176,532 183,751 4.09% 4 Boston 275,152 286,294 4.05% 5 New York 3,496,654 3,632,534 3.89% 6 Washington, D.C. 290,272 298,319 2.77% 7 Columbus 386,416 396,420 2.59% 8 Baltimore 253,188 252,920-0.11% 9 Chicago 1,215,543 1,209,987-0.46% 10 Buffalo 116,054 115,519-0.46% 11 Indianapolis 397,881 394,509-0.85% 12 Philadelphia 582,999 577,950-0.87% 13 Pittsburgh 145,431 144,003-0.98% 14 Kansas City 215,025 212,745-1.06% 15 Milwaukee 249,378 244,248-2.06% 16 Minneapolis 208,534 200,779-3.72% 17 St. Paul (MN) 140,109 133,799-4.50% 18 St. Louis 147,215 139,036-5.56% 19 Cleveland 175,208 164,945-5.86% 20 Detroit 322,084 292,824-9.08%

Table 7- Employment Growth in the 20 Largest Frostbelt Cities 2000-2000 % Change 1 Wichita 174,389 183,751 5.37% 2 Omaha 211,378 220,967 4.54% 3 New York 3,479,850 3,632,534 4.39% 4 Washington, D.C. 293,889 298,319 1.51% 5 Columbus 392,182 396,420 1.08% 6 Cincinnati 153,284 154,467 0.77% 7 Buffalo 118,112 115,519-2.20% 8 Indianapolis 409,553 394,509-3.67% 9 Pittsburgh 149,885 144,003-3.92% 10 Boston 298,589 286,294-4.12% 11 Baltimore 266,736 252,920-5.18% 12 Philadelphia 610,001 577,950-5.25% 13 Kansas City 226,432 212,745-6.04% 14 Chicago 1,303,297 1,209,987-7.16% 15 Minneapolis 221,012 200,779-9.15% 16 St. Louis 153,863 139,036-9.64% 17 Milwaukee 271,531 244,248-10.05% 18 St. Paul (MN) 150,448 133,799-11.07% 19 Cleveland 188,004 164,945-12.27% 20 Detroit 355,700 292,824-17.68%

Table 8 -- Unemployment Rates in the Nation s 50 Largest Cities 2000 2004 2007 1 Omaha 3.0 4.8 3.1 4.0 2 Honolulu 3.4 2.5 2.5 4.2 3 Albuquerque 3.3 4.6 2.7 4.2 4 Virginia Beach 1.9 3.2 2.9 4.5 5 Oklahoma City 2.5 4.8 4.7 4.6 6 Tulsa 2.6 4.8 4.5 4.6 7 Austin 2.6 4.9 3.4 4.7 8 Seattle 4.3 5.1 3.4 5.0 9 San Antonio 3.6 5.6 3.9 5.1 10 Houston 4.1 6.7 4.2 5.3 11 Wichita 3.7 5.8 4.2 5.4 12 Mesa City 2.7 3.4 3.4 5.5 13 Minneapolis 2.7 4.2 4.3 5.9 14 Boston 2.6 4.8 3.9 6.0 15 Nashville 3.0 4.4 4.1 6.0 16 Fort Worth 3.9 6.6 4.3 6.0 17 Columbus 2.9 5.1 4.7 6.1 18 Dallas 4.0 7.4 4.6 6.3 19 El Paso 5.7 7.2 5.2 6.5 20 San Francisco 3.0 5.0 4.4 6.6 21 Colorado Springs 2.4 5.3 4.8 6.7 22 Tucson 3.7 4.4 4.7 6.9 23 Phoenix 3.5 4.4 4.4 7.0 24 Denver 2.7 6.2 4.8 7.0 25 Indianapolis 2.5 5.5 4.4 7.2 26 New York 5.1 6.0 5.2 7.2 27 San Diego 3.2 4.1 5.0 7.4 28 Charlotte 3.2 5.3 4.2 7.4 29 Miami 6.2 6.8 4.3 7.5 30 Louisville 3.6 5.1 5.4 7.5 31 Jacksonville 3.1 4.3 4.4 7.6 32 Chicago 5.7 6.9 5.6 7.6 33 Atlanta 4.2 7.7 5.0 7.7 34 Portland 4.3 6.4 4.8 7.8 35 Milwaukee 4.7 6.7 6.6 7.9 36 St. Louis 5.9 8.7 7.2 8.2 37 Philadelphia 4.9 6.3 5.9 8.2 38 Memphis 4.6 8.0 6.0 8.4 39 Baltimore 5.4 7.0 5.5 8.5 40 San Jose 2.7 6.0 5.5 8.6 41 Kansas City 4.1 7.4 6.8 8.7 42 Cleveland 6.4 7.7 7.8 8.8 43 Washington, D.C. 5.5 7.8 5.8 8.9 44 Las Vegas 5.0 4.4 5.7 9.0 45 Sacramento 4.3 6.0 7.0 10.2 46 Long Beach 5.0 6.4 5.8 10.5 47 Los Angeles 5.1 6.4 5.8 10.5 48 Oakland 4.6 7.8 7.6 11.9 49 Fresno 9.9 9.6 9.1 12.4 50 Detroit 7.1 13.9 14.7 18.6