Private Crossing Treatments on the North Carolina Sealed Corridor Patrick Bien-aime 2013 National Highway-Rail Grade Crossing Safety Training Conference November 05, 2013 The National Transportation Systems Center Advancing transportation innovation for the public good U.S. Department of Transportation Research and Innovative Technology Administration John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center 1
Agenda Background Study purpose Research Methods Results Study Findings/Conclusions 2
Background Mandate FRA was directed to provide a report by January 31, 2001 to the House and Senate Committees on Appropriations that documents the success of the sealed corridor project, including a scientifically valid estimate of the lives saved by the improvements that have been installed and an evaluation of whether the resulting reduction in accidents is sustainable. Studies Study I: Phase I Report to congress in 2001 Study II: NC DOT Sealed High Speed Rail Corridor Phase I-III assessment in 2004 Study III: NC Sealed Corridor Phase IV assessment-private crossings in 2008 I will be giving an overview of the entire study with emphasis on the final phase treating private crossings 3
Study Purpose Document the potential lives saved and result of the State of NC s Private grade crossing Sealed Corridor Program Document improvements completed through December 2008 at highway-rail Private grade crossing Determine whether the resulting reduction in accidents is sustainable through the year 2010 Proposed Southeast High Speed Rail Corridor 4
Study Purpose The Corridor was divided into four different phases, based on location over 173.3 track miles. Public Crossings Phase 1: Phase 2: Phase 3: Private Crossings Charlotte to Greensboro 103 grade crossings Greensboro to Cary 96 grade crossings Cary to Raleigh 9 grade crossings Phase 1 Phase 2 Burlington Greensboro High Point Durham Salisbury Cary Kannapolis Charlotte Phase IV Phase 3 Raleigh Phase 4: Charlotte to Raleigh 46 grade crossings 5
NC DOT Sealed Corridor, 233 Public and Private Treated Crossings as of December 2008 6
Private Crossings Treatment Types Closure - CL Xbucks/stop/pvt x sign Gates with locking mechanisms G&L Gates and flashing lights G&F Cross bucks Xbucks Cross bucks and Stop Xbucks/stop None NA 7
Example 1 - Treated Crossings Crossing Closure Treatment, Lexington 8
Example 2 - Treated Crossings Private Grade Crossing Stop and Cross Buck Sign Treatment 9
Example 3 - Treated Crossings Private Grade Crossing Gate with Locking Mechanism, Davidson Co. 10
Example 4 - Treated Crossings Robert Ranking Fryar Road - Cross Buck Sign, Guilford County, NC 11
NC DOT Sealed Corridor Number of Crossings Treated and Untreated Year Phase Total crossings Total treated Total not treated 2000-2004 I - III 208 189 19 2000-2008 IV 46 44 2 1990-2008 Total 254 233 21 12
Research Methods Fatal Crash Analysis Analyze pre and post-treatment fatality-rate for each crossing Fatal Accident Prediction Model Used the Modified US DOT Fatal Accident Prediction Model to predict future accident Differentiates between freight and passenger train operations Accounts for higher train speeds Accounts for vehicle type mix 13
Fatal Crash Analysis All crashes were used for the analysis of the Sealed Corridor, but only crossings with fatal crashes were selected From 1990 to treatment, a fatality-rate (holding the warning device constant for pre-treatment period) was calculated using the crash history for each of the crossings From time of Sealed Corridor treatment through December 2008, actual experience was compared with the pre-treatment fatality rate to determine potential Lives Saved 14
Summary of Estimated Lives Saved by Treatment Type Results Phase IV Private Crossings Improvement Crossing Name Fatalities Pretreatment Timeframe (months) Fatalities Post-treatment Timeframe (months) Analysis of Lives Saved CL Gate/Flashing Lights 8400 Old Concord Rd. Byrdsville Rd. 1 193 0 30 0.155 1 142 0 82 0.577 CL Cross bucks IP Merryhue Farms LLC NW Tree & Stone Co. 1 193 0 30 0.155 1 154 0 94 0.610 Total 4 0 1.499 CL = closure 15
Summary of Estimated Lives Saved by Treatment Type Results Phase I-IV Public and private Crossings Warning Device Improvement Fatalities Ave Time Frame (Months) Fatalities Ave Time Frame (Months) Analysis of Estimated"Lives Saved" Closure Subtotal 17 142 0 68 9 4-Quadrant Gate Subtotal 14 139 2 49 6 Long Gate Subtotal 16 135 1 36 4 Median Barrier Subtotal 3 157 0 51 1 Gate/Flashing Lights 1 142 0 82 1 Crossbucks 1 154 0 94 1 Totals 52 145 3 21 Closure - CL Four Quadrant Gate 4Q Long Gate LG Median Barrier MB 16
Modified US DOT Fatal Accident Prediction Model The model calculates the effect of the five-year actual incident history for prediction of future incidents Estimated five year pre-and post-treatment periods for warning device effectiveness calculations Populated year-by-year input variables from both the FRA Inventory and NCDOT data into the model Volpe Assumptions In the model after the year 2008, we assumed 2% per year growth in Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) and Train Frequency For 2010 only, two main track, and train speeds increase to 79 and 110 mph respectively per NC DOT plans. 17
Estimated Risk Reduction through the year 2010 (Phase IV) 0.9 0.8 0.79 0.7 AADT and corridor speed increase Estimated Risk (Fatalities/Yr) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.44 0.1 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year No Build (110 in 2010) Full Build (110 in 2010) Estimated risk reduction is approximately 56 percent 18
Estimated Risk Reduction through the year 2010 (Phase IV) 0.9 0.8 0.7 Estimated Risk (Fataliteis/Yr) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.63 0.36 0.31 0.2 0.1 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year No Build (79 in 2010) Full Build (79 in 2010) Full Build No Speed Increase Estimated risk reduction is approximately 57 percent 19
Risk Reduction through the year 2010 (Phase I-IV) NC DOT SEHSR Corridor Assessment Estimated Risk at Public and Private Crossings 1990-2010 7 6 6.09 Estimated Risk (Fatalities/yr) 5 4 3 2 AADT and corridor speed increase 5.44 2.93 2.67 2.03 1 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year No Build (110 in 2010) No Build (79 in 2010) Full Build (110 in 2010) Full Build (79 in 2010) Full Build No Speed Increase By 2010, the fatality rate resulting from full implementation would be: 52 percent lower than no implementation (110mph) 50.9 percent lower (79 mph) 46 percent lower (no speed increase) 20
Study Findings/Conclusions Fatal Crash Analysis An estimated 1.5 lives saved through 2008 in all private crossings An estimated 21 lives have been potentially saved since the implementation of the Sealed Corridor program through 2008 in all public and private crossings Risk Reduction Model predicted Approximately 44% of the 1991 risk was eliminated by 2010 in all private crossings, and 52% in all public and private crossings General Treatments were effective and effectiveness has been sustained NC DOT Sealed Corridor should be used as standard for High Speed Rail implementation The report is posted on the FRA website at http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/46000/46000/46031/tr_northcarolina_sealedco rridor_phaseiv_assessmentprivatecrossingsjuly2012_final.pdf 21
For additional information, please contact Patrick Bien-Aime, Mechanical Engineer U.S. Dept. of Transportation/RITA/Volpe Center Systems Engineering and Safety Division, RVT-62 55 Broadway, Cambridge, MA 02142 Email: patrick.bien-aime@dot.gov Tel.: (617)494-3907 Fax: (617) 494-2596 Cell: (857) 998-3299 22