CENTRAL LONDON OFFICE MARKET UPDATE Q4 2017 RESEARCH Real Estate for a changing world
CENTRAL LONDON OFFICE MARKET UPDATE CONTACTS Brexit & the economy of average levels. Conversely, deals Investment Daniel Bayley Head of City Agency daniel.bayley@realestate. +44 (0)20 7338 4444 STATS AT A GLANCE Over the coming year the Banking & Finance sector will be paying close attention to negotiations concerning its access to European financial markets. The topic has dominated of <5,000 sq ft were 50% below the average. Despite pressures of increased tenant space (26% of total supply) London, on a global stage remains attractive, 81% of the total 15.33bn invested in Central London offices originated from overseas in 2017. Asia Pacific investors continue to drive SImon Knights Head of West End Agency simon.knights@realestate. +44 (0)20 7318 5041 15.3BN 81% news headlines since the EU referendum. Estimates for the number of job relocations from financial institutions to other European cities have largely reduced; it is not the and 8.03m sq ft of 2017 development completions, the vacancy rate rose only marginally by 43bps last year to 6.15%. Good levels of pre-letting activity were partly behind this, as at volumes with 7.47bn invested over the course of 2017. Unlike UK investors, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations seem Aidan Meynell Head of City Investment aidan.meynell@realestate. +44 (0)20 7318 5018 2017 office investment volumes are 15% ahead of 2016 of capital originated from overseas mass exodus some predicted. Furthermore, major banks have reaffirmed their commitment to Central London over the last year; Deutsche Bank s half a million sq ft end Q4 2017 62% of 2017 completions were pre-let. With landlords generally unwilling to increase incentives further, prime s in the majority of Central to be low on the list of risk factors for overseas purchasers, who see Central London as low risk and providing long income in comparison to other global cites. Simon Glenn Head of West End Investment simon.glenn@realestate. +44 (0)20 7318 5045 Kuldeep Gadhary Research kuldeep.gadhary@realestate. +44 (0)20 7338 4844 6.15% Central London 2017 vacancy rate, 43bps up on Q4 2016 26% Tenant space accounts for over a quarter of total availability, up from 17% in Q4 2016 pre-let at 21 Moorfields and Goldman Sachs commitment to its 800,000 sq ft HQ (which completes this year), are good examples. In this uncertain climate, the Central London office market has performed resiliently over the last 12 months. Forecasts point to continued, albeit at a slower rate. Oxford London markets reported annual declines. Competition from large occupiers contributed to the softer falls witnessed in prime s in the City and Midtown. The submarkets of Paddington and NOX (East) reported rises which has upheld average s across the West End. Q4 2017 prime s stood at 115.00/sq ft in the West End and 67.50/ sq ft in the City. Buoyed by demand, yields for prime stock remain at 4.00% in the City and 3.50% in the West End. Fiona Don Research fiona.don@realestate. 12.7M 14% Economics suggest employment of 5.8% and GDP of 10.4% over the next five years (2018- +44 (0)20 7338 4156 2017 take-up is 11% ahead of 2016 Serviced offices accounted for a record share of take-up in 2017 22), outperforming the UK and the wider Eurozone. Leasing 2017 saw strong levels of occupier activity with 12.68m sq ft recorded, 11% ahead of 2016 and 2% ahead of the 10 year average. Large corporate occupiers drove demand with small to medium sized businesses remaining cautious. Indeed >100,000 sq ft deals were 55% ahead 3
CENTRAL LONDON OFFICE RENTS & VACANCY RATES BY SUBMARKET CENTRAL LONDON OFFICE MARKET UPDATE k t London The Central London vacancy rate rose over the course of 2017 to 6.15%, this however is below the long term average of 7.04%. Docklands is the only submarket with above average levels of vacancy at 10.11%, up on the average of 7.27%. Midtown, Southbank and the Northern Fringe all saw supply declines in 2017. Their low exposure to the Banking & Finance sector has certainly shielded them from tenant return space. key stats can go here Hammersmith Shepherd s Bush Second-hand tenant space continues to rise, reaching 3.58m sq ft, 26% of total supply, up on 24% in Q3 2017. The development pipeline looks relatively modest. 2018 will see 8.5m sq ft complete, 53% of which is already prelet. Over the next three years (2018-20) we estimate space under construction totals 16m sq ft, of which 42% is already committed. MIDTOWN WEST END NORTHERN FRINGE Vacancy rate: 5.04% Vacancy rate: 4.84% Vacancy rate: 1.61% Average: 6.09% Average: 5.85% Average: 7.96% Covent Garden 77.50-3.1% Mayfair & St 115.00-9.8% King s Cross 75.00-1.3% Holborn 65.00-3.7% James s Northern Victoria 80.00-3.6% Islington Soho 85.00-3.4% Fringe Noho East 82.50 3.1% Noho West 85.00-8.1% CITY Paddington 67.50 5.5% King s Cross St Pancras Vacancy rate: 7.19% Average: 8.28% Midtown Paddington Knightsbridge Chelsea West End Bond Street Mayfair Buckingham Palace Victoria Soho Westminster Holborn Covent Garden The Silicon Roundabout South Bank Nine Elms Battersea Power Station City London Bridge City Fringe Bank The Shard SOUTHBANK Vacancy rate: 2.58% Average: 5.16% Southbank 65.00 3.2% City 67.50-2.2% City Fringe 65.00 0.0% City Tower 77.50-3.1% STRATFORD Vacancy rate: 12.97% Stratford 42.50 0% Stratford Docklands Canary Wharf DOCKLANDS Vacancy rate: 10.11% Average: 7.27% Canary 42.50-5.6% Wharf Rest of Docklands 30.00-6.3% Stratford The O2 5
THE WEST END (W1, SW1, W2, SW3, SW7, W8, NW1) THE CITY (E1, EC1, EC2, EC3, EC4) CENTRAL LONDON OFFICE MARKET UPDATE West End take-up in Q4 2017 rose considerably from levels in previous West End supply has remained steady throughout 2017 at 3.25m sq ft. as evidenced by lettings to Arup and Boston Consulting at 80 Charlotte Q4 2017 take-up reached 1.43m sq ft, down on the previous quarter but in-line with the long term average quarterly figure. This brings 2017 City take-up by business sector quarters to 1.01m sq ft, the highest However, this registers a considerable Street, W1. take-up to 5.89m sq ft, 30% ahead of 2016. Services Sector 9% Banking & Finance 18% quarterly take-up recorded since Q3 2015. The rise can largely be attributed to Dentsu Aegis taking 310,000 sq ft at 1 Triton Square, NW1 drop on the 10-year average of 4.0m sq ft. The West End vacancy rate was 4.84% in Q4 2017, a drop on the 5.89% 10-year average. West End prime s have shown some decline over the course of the year and are expected to decline The largest deal of Q4 2017 was 116,000 sq ft at One Creechurch Place, EC3 to Hyperion Insurance. Deals in excess of 100,000 sq ft were a key feature of the market in 2017; in total eight were recorded, up on the Serviced Office 15% Retailer & Leisure 4% Public Sector 1% Corporate 5% Insurance 5% and WeWork acquiring 41,933 sq ft at WELPUT s North West House, NW1. The significant end to the year has Within the West End submarkets, Victoria and North of Oxford Street further going forward as Brexit uncertainty continues to prevail. Over a longer time frame, s will average of five per annum. Media Tech and the Banking & Finance sectors both account for an 18% Property & Construction 6% Professional services 10% Other/Undisclosed 9% Media Tech 18% taken the final 2017 take-up levels to (West) recorded the largest rises stabilise with al returning share of demand. Serviced Offices continue their expansion in the City. 3.12m sq ft, a 25% rise on 2016 levels in vacancy of 78 bps and 75 bps, by 2020. In particular WeWork who acquired multiple buildings in 2017 including and largely in line with the 10-year average of 3.18m sq ft. respectively. Q4 2017 saw a slight rise in office One Poultry, EC2. The building is in the heart of the traditional City core, which may help attract Banking & Finance occupiers who are seeking City prime s held steady in Q4 In terms of new development, the investment volumes with 408m more flexible lease terms. Within the West End Core (Mayfair & St James s), take-up from 2016 to 2017 rose 21% to 0.75m sq ft, a slight decline on the short and long-term West End is scheduled to see around 0.45m sq ft delivered in Q1 and Q2 2018, of which 72% remains available. Looking forward, larger developments recorded, up from 262m in Q3 2017. This brings annual volumes for the year to 3.98bn, a 2% rise on 2016. Whilst the average lease length in the City remained steady in 2017, the number of leases signed with break options increased from 25% in 2016 to 32%, indicative of occupiers requiring more flexibility. The of 67.50 / per sq ft Q4 prime averages of 0.84m and 0.86m sq ft respectively. including The Brunel Building and Marble Arch Tower are projected to boost supply levels. We expect Facebook s headquarters at Rathbone Square was the largest sale of 2017, selling for 435m reflecting a NIY of Serviced Offices will continue to put pressure on lease lengths. Despite pressure from the development pipeline and increased volume of City under construction development pipeline demand for new space to remain high 4.25%. tenant supply, availability levels saw little movement in Q4 and stood at 6.64m sq ft, a vacancy rate of 7.19%. The long term average City vacancy 6.00 Completed Future supply Pre-let Long-term avg rate is 8.28%. 5.00 West End Take-Up Vs Vacancy Rate Million sq ft 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 Quarterly take-up Vacancy Rate 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% The Media Tech sector took the lead for 2017 take-up levels 19% Media Tech Sector 2017 take-up share 2018 will mark a peak in development activity in the City, 5.14m sq ft is due to complete. With occupier preference skewed towards newly developed and refurbished space we expect pre-lets to diminish this new stock. Indeed, 48% of this space is already committed. Uncharacteristically for the City office market, Q4 investment volumes did not end in the usual flurry of activity, seeing levels of 1.86bn. This however brings annual levels to 7.82bn in 2017, 15% ahead of 2016 levels and 25% ahead of the 10 year average. M sq ft 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Capital deployed by Asia Pacific investors in to City office in 2017 0.4 0.2 0 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% West End prime s saw softening in Q4 2017 115.00 / per sq ft Q4 prime Despite Asia Pacific investors dominating volumes, the City office market remains popular on a global stage. Union Investment purchased 160 Aldersgate, EC1 for 220m in Q4 2017 pushing investment from the Eurozone to 16% of total 2017 volumes. WeWork s acquisition of Devonshire Square, EC2 for 580m helped boost North American investors overall share to 13%. 4.44BN The region accounts for 57% of 2017 City office investment volumes 7
CENTRAL LONDON OFFICE MARKET UPDATE MIDTOWN (WC1, WC2) Q4 2017 DEALS TABLES Take-up reached 0.30m sq ft in Q4 The Midtown vacancy rate totalled Investment volumes in the Midtown Key leasing deals 2017, a significant fall on the last two quarters. A lack of larger deals 5.04% in Q4 2017, a decline on the Q4 2016 figure of 7.52%. market fell slightly from 1.48bn in 2016 to 1.14bn in 2017. Address (Floor) Sq Ft Approx (psf) Term (Break) Tenant Landlord contributed to low take-up levels. 1 Triton Square, NW1 (Bldg) 310,000 Early 70 s 20 Years Dentsu Aegis British Land The largest deal of the quarter was 49,212 sq ft at the Cursitor Building, WC2 which was acquired by WeWork. Despite this, annual levels reached 1.87m sq ft, a strong rise on 2016 s total of 0.89m sq ft. Supply levels in Midtown rose to Development activity remains relatively subdued with only 0.58m sq ft of space proposed in 2018, of which 0.10m sq ft is prelet. The Media Tech sector accounted for 36% of take-up in 2017 making it the most dominant sector, followed by Good levels of demand and a subdued development pipeline has resulted in a significant fall in supply -247bps Q4 2016 to Q4 2017 fall in vacancy rate 14 Westfield Avenue, E15 (Bldg) 240,000 Late 30 s 25 Years HMRC Westfield One Creechurch Place, EC3 (11-17) 97,127 64.00 15 Years Hyperion Helical One Poultry, EC2 (Bldg) 115,277 65.00 15 Years WeWork Aermont Capital 125 London Wall, EC2 (12-18) 112,391 45.00 7.3 Years Lloyds Bank CMS One Embassy Gardens, SW8 (1-5) 83,400 51.50 10 Years Penguin Random House Ballymore 1.05m sq ft during Q4 2017 from 0.91m sq ft in Q3 2017 but dropped from 1.49m sq ft in Q4 2016. The long-term average supply level is 1.37m sq ft. Serviced Offices at 13%. Rents, having previously remained stable, have begun a slight decline with levels falling in the Covent Garden and Holborn submarkets during Q3 and Q4 2017 on selected Take-up from 2016 to 2017 more than doubled reaching 1.87m sqft. +110% The percentage rise in take-up from 2016 to 2017 131 Finsbury Pavement, EC2 (Bldg) 74,502 Conf 15 Years WeWork RLAM Thames House, Park St, SE1 (Bldg) 49,693 Conf Conf The Office Group Meyer Bergman The Cursitor Building, WC2 (1-5) 49,212 63.50 20 Years WeWork SWIP One Creechurch Place, EC3 (1-2) 23,000 60.00 10 Years Dell Helical buildings. SOUTHBANK (SE1) Address Lot Size Capital Value Yield Purchaser Vendor Key investment deals Southbank take-up reached 0.27m sq ft in Q4 2017, a 179% rise on Q3 2017 2.58%, one of the lowest levels across Central London. 266m acquisition of 240 Blackfriars Road provided a significant boost to Devonshire Square Estate, EC2 580m 902 4.24% WeWork Blackstone during which take-up was 0.10m sq ft. figures achieving a NIY of 3.94% 15 Canada Square, E14 400m 921 4.45% Kingboard KPMG On an annual basis, Southbank take- A period of muted development activity has led to a significant reduction in 5 Churchill Place, E14 268m 854 5.14% Chen Hongtian Said Holdings up reached 0.95m sq ft in 2017, 11% up on 2016. The largest deal of the quarter was at Thames House, Park available space in Southbank. Supply levels average 1.00m sq ft meaning cur levels are around 50% below Larger deals contributed to a rise in take-up levels in Southbank 240 Blackfriars Road, SE1 266.5m 1,178 3.94% Al Gurg GPE 25 Gresham Street, EC2 160m 1,335 3.78% Hengli Group Lloyds Bank Street, SE1 where The Office Group prelet 50,000 sq ft. the long-term trend. +11% 10 Grosvenor Street, W1 152m 2,348 3.70% Private (Hong Kong) Grosvenor Large deals to Serviced Office operators like The Office Group and WeWork meant the sector accounted for 39% of total take-up last year. Supply at year-end stood at 0.50m sq ft, equating to a vacancy rate of The low vacancy rate has caused upward pressure on prime s. As at Q4 2017 they stood at 65.00/sq ft, up from 63.00/ sq ft in Q3 2017. Annual investment volumes reached 1.27bn in 2017, up considerably on 2016 levels of 0.33bn. Al Gurj s Percentage rise in take-up from 2016 to 2017 Serviced office take-up during 2017 was driven by WeWork s acquisition of Southbank Place 39% Serviced Office take-up share 2017 Premier Place, EC3 145m 653 - Greycoat / Morgan Stanley RBS 99 Gresham Street, EC2 136m 1,423 4.07% Million Cities L&G Juxon House, St Paul s Churchyard, EC4 135m 1,087 4.10% GR Properties Standard Life 22 Baker Street, W1 123m 1,661 3.75% Lazari Investments Loftus Trust 9
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