Africa, Airbus; A vision of the future Addis Ababa March 13 th, 2013 Image: DSK
Source: Global Insight, United Nations, Airbus GMF Africa Real GDP Urban population Intra-regional & domestic Inter-regional Total Fleet in service beginning 2012 20-year new aircraft deliveries 4.4% 3.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.7% 618 957 Traffic carried by all carriers, fleet in service with domiciled carriers 2012-2103 CAGR Passenger aircraft 100 seats
Air travel remains a growth market
Urbanisation is a main driver of economic growth Source: United Nations, Airbus
Month 200X Strong growth of Africa international traffic Monthly traffic from/to Africa (billion ASKs) Latin America CIS North America Asia-Pacific 30 Middle East Europe African carriers' share 60% 25 50% 20 40% 15 30% 10 20% 5 10% 0 0% 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 but African carriers share was below 40% in 2011 Source: September traffic from OAG, Airbus Page 5
Traffic to and from and within Africa has grown rapidly Traffic to/from Africa (Available Seat Kilometers), 2012 vs. 2000 North America +80% Latin America +118% Europe +49% CIS (incl. Russia) +577% Middle East +307% Intra Africa +86% Asia/Pacific +134% Domestic traffic: + 86% International traffic: + 90% Overall traffic: + 89% Source: September traffic from OAG, Airbus
400% growth in ET traffic Ethiopian Airlines passengers RPKs (million) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Ethiopian Airlines is a dynamic, fast growing international airline, in a dynamic region. One of the big three regional players along with SAA and Kenya Airways 2,000 0 To end December 2012
Economic growth is driven by emerging markets 2013 real GDP forecast by region PRC Indian Sub Continent Africa CIS Latin America Middle East Pacific Asia* North America 2013 World Average Europe 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: IHS Global Insight (January 2013), Airbus *- Excluding Indian Sub-continent and PRC
Economic growth will be driven by emerging markets 2011-31 real GDP average annual growth rate, by region Indian Sub Continent PRC Africa South America Asia Middle East Central America CIS Pacific North America Europe 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
Estimated passenger growth in Ethiopia expected to grow at 9.4% per annum over the next 10 years Pax growth from/to Ethiopia (2011-2021 CAGR) North America 7.3% Latin America 9.8% Europe 6.6% Domestic: 8.9% Intra-Africa: 9.5% Middle East 11.4% CIS 6.0% Indian Subcontinent 8.5% PRC 9.9% Asia 6.4% Japan 7.8% Pacific 4.6% Source: Airbus GMF O&D Forecast
Estimated passenger growth in Ethiopia expected to grow at 8.1% per annum over the next 20 years Pax growth from/to Ethiopia (2011-2031 CAGR) North America 5.9% Latin America 7.9% Europe 6.1% Domestic: 7.4% Intra-Africa: 8.2% Middle East 9.5% CIS 5.8% Indian Subcontinent 7.8% PRC 8.0% Asia 5.4% Japan 7.0% Pacific 4.2% Source: Airbus GMF O&D Forecast
By 2031 there will be 92 aviation Mega-cities 2031 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers > 95% of long-haul traffic on routes to/from/via 92 cities 92 Aviation Mega-cities (2031) Traffic as of month of September. Source: Airbus Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;
Africa: 20-year demand for 957 new aircraft 724 single-aisle aircraft 204 twin-aisle aircraft 29 very large aircraft Market value of $118 billion 20-year new deliveries of passenger aircraft for Africa Source: Airbus GMF 2012
Africa: 20-year demand for 957 new aircraft 1600 Fleet size 1200 835 Growth 800 400 618 122 496 Replaced Stay in service 0 Beginning 2012 2031 Passenger aircraft 100 seats (excluding freighters) Source: Airbus GMF 2012
More and more Airbus aircraft in service in Africa 200 Number of Airbus aircraft in service 150 100 50 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 and a growing opportunity to add more. Source: Ascend (data as of end of year, passenger aircraft 100 seats and freighter aircraft), Airbus
A rapid adoption of new technology aircraft 100% Number of aircraft by generation (1990-2010) 75% 50% 25% 0% 20% to >50% In 10 years 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Old Mid New Source: Ascend (data as of end December for each year, passenger aircraft 100 seats and freighter aircraft), Airbus
The Future By Airbus November 2012 Aviation is a major driver of the world economy $2.2 TRILLION PASSENGERS 17
The future from Airbus is arriving soon A350-900: first flight Q2 2013, first delivery to Ethiopian Airlines: 2017
A long term future technology vision Innovation is a key driver to the future Annual Airbus R&D investment: 2 billion, 90% has environmental benefits
Annual Airbus R&D investment: 2 billion Sustainable Solutions Future Planet Future Talent New business models Smarter Flight (ATM) Biomimicry New Energy Sources Inspiring Young Minds Attracting and retaining talent 20
The Future By Airbus November 2012 The Airbus Concept Plane 21
Inspiring the young generation We will need to continue to attract, retain and inspire the best talent! We need to inspire and engage the younger generations of today to build a better aviation industry for tomorrow 23
The Little Engineers Workshops 24
The Future By Airbus November 2012 Fly Your Ideas 2013 Global student challenges Energy Efficiency Affordable Growth Traffic Growth Passenger experience Community Friendliness 25
The Future By Airbus November 2012 The right combination Investment Innovation Talent Sustainable aviation in 2050 26
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