Morgan Stanley Airbus Commercial Update Mark Pearman Wright Head of Corporate & Investor Marketing V5
Gross order comparison over the last 15 years 1800 Annual gross orders 1600 1400 1200 Airbus Boeing 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Largest aircraft manufacturer 9 out of last 10 years August
Deliveries comparison over the last 15 years 700 Annual deliveries 600 500 400 Airbus Boeing 300 200 100 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Largest aircraft manufacturer 9 out of last 10 years Smooth production increase following order intake
Airbus is the market leader % share since 1995 100 80 60 Orders Deliveries 40 20 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Delivery leadership follows order leadership Gross orders
2012 Airbus orders, deliveries and backlog Orders Deliveries Backlog A320 Family 346 285 3,398 current engine option 143 285 1,939 new engine option 203 1,459 A330/A340 49 65 325 A350 XWB 16 558 A380 4 14 176 Total 415 364 4,457 Data end August 2012
Order backlogs Airbus Boeing A320ceo 1,939 737NG 2,111 A320neo 1,459 737 MAX 649 A330/A340 325 767/777 414 A350 XWB 558 787 800 A380 176 747 79 4,457 4,053 Combined backlog of 8,510 aircraft Data end August 2012
The market-leading A380 Five years in Service
A380 values steadily increasing New Aircraft Base Value evolution from 2008-2012 14% 12% A380 10% 8% 6% 4% 777-300ER 2% Datum 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average of first half published values of : ASG, AVITAS, AVAC, ASCEND and MBA
Capital markets embrace A380 value Emirates A380 financing deal (July 2012) Debt-financing for 4 A380s sourced with EETC in US capital markets Doric Alpha: borrower and issuer of equipment notes, leasing aircraft to Emirates. First EETC using A380 as collateral Very successful (3 times oversubscribed) A3 rating from Moodys All A380s in service are financed by usual market sources Banks and capital markets see the A380 as a strong asset
A330: ~1,200 firm orders A350XWB: 558 firm orders A330 A350XWB: Complementary twins Data to end August 2012
A350 XWB / 787 order conversions 787-8 to -9 conversions Air New Zealand 4 ALAFCO 4 LCAL 5 Continental 12 ILFC 40 Vietnam Airlines 16 Air China 15 ANA 19 KAL 10 JAL 10 Total 135 A350-800 to -900 Alafco 12 TAM 12 ILFC 6 Grupo Synergy 10 CIT 3 TAP 12 Asiana 2 Total 57 188 aircraft upsized so far A definite trend towards larger aircraft End August 2012
A350-1000: Optimised dimensions Designed as an intermediate twin-aisle
Wing span and aircraft length: 2 key dimensions 65m* 10.5m* 76m* 7.5m* Code E capability ensures access to more than 1200 gates at the top 50 airports Only the larger A380 is an efficient user of the fewer Code F gates * ICAO airport compatibility regulations
A330, A350 XWB families are complementary Seats A350-1000 A350-900 A330-300 A350-800 A330-200 Complete fleet solutions, matching network requirements today and tomorrow Range
A330 a record breaker 781 More than 780 A330s sold since 787 launch* Open demand for ~500 A330s thru 2020 *26 th of April 2004. Net orders as of end August 2012 Source GMF 2012 Open Demand beyond: current backlogs & for new models maximum production capacity
A330 Enhancements beyond 235t MTOW Increase to 240t MTOW Aerodynamic package Fuel burn reduction 1% Load Alleviation Function Engine fuel burn improvement 1% 400nm more range, 2% less fuel, 1,300t less CO2 per year per aircraft
A330, The right aircraft, right now! Cumulative contribution to profit ($ millions) 250 2027 Delta PV +$63m 200 150 100 50 0 3 years later 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 A330 can generate significantly more value than a 787-9 Based on 15 year period to 2025, 0% fuel escalation, 3% cost escalation, 2% revenue escalation, 10% discount rate, excludes ownership 75% passenger load factor, 50% of cargo capacity is filled, 2.5 USD/USg Fuel price, 2000nm sector, Typical Airline 2012 rules
The best keeps getting better
A320 Family Fleet evolution by region A320Family fleet size evolution by region 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 China Asia Europe Africa Middle East Latin America and Caribbean Australasia North America 5,200 deliveries 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 3,400 order backlog Total: 8,600 firm orders Source: Ascend Online, Airbus. Data as of End December 2011. In service and stored Passenger fleet.
Fleet Size / status end of 2011 Single aisle movements and lease placements - CSMI - Ref. PR1247291 - Issue 1 90% single-aisle fleets still with their initial operators In-service fleet (Year of Manufacturer 1997-2011) 2500 2000 737NG series A320 Family 1 operator 2 operators 3 operators 4+ operators 1500 1000 500 99% Still at 1 st operator 77% Still at 1 st operator 98% Still at 1 st operator Same behaviour as 737NG 81% Still at 1 st operator Better retention at 1 st lessee 0 Owned Leased Owned Leased Similar numbers of aircraft have moved from their initial operator despite a larger A320 fleet with more on operating lease Ascend Online, Airbus. Data as of End December 2011. In service passenger fleet. Owned includes finance leased All data cleaned for mergers Page 21
Sharklets flight test campaign progressing well More range +100nm More payload +500kg Better take-off MSN1 flight test completed with 380 hrs Line-fit A320 CFM & IAE flight test nearing completion after 170 hrs Fuel savings up to 3.5% Less CO 2 A320CFM Type Certification end November Lower cost Next: A321CFM 1 st flight October A319CFM 1 st flight November Sharklets ahead of target with 1 st delivery Dec 2012
Strong customer endorsement for Sharklets Orders from 40 customers worldwide
The A320neo is real Sharklets New engines More than 500hrs of flight testing Fuel savings confirmed 1 st pylon part produced The A320neo is on track
A320neo 15% Fuel burn improvement... Double digit reduction in fuel burn A319 A319neo A320 A320neo A321 A321neo across the whole Family 26
Cash Operating Cost Comparison Relative C.O.C. per trip (%) 5-50 -40-30 -20-10 0 10 0 A321ceo -5-10 A321neo -15-20 Relative C.O.C per seat (%) 3000nm, 2012 marketing standard, Max Pax. With 2 class layout Which aircraft is 20% more expensive per seat than the A321neo?
Cash Operating Cost Comparison Relative C.O.C. per trip (%) 5 0 787-8 -50-40 -30-20 -10 0 10 A321ceo -5-10 A321neo -15-20 Relative C.O.C per seat (%) The 787 is much less efficient than the A321neo on routes <3000nm 3000nm, 2012 marketing standard, Max Pax. With 2 class layout
A320neo has been clearly endorsed by the Industry Undisclosed 1429 firm orders from 27 customers 650 firm orders from 6 customers A320neo is the preferred market option Mid July 2012
Airbus today A320ceo Sharklet EIS on track end 2012 A320neo firm sales approaching 1,500 A330 production increasing, with operator base nearing 100 A350 XWB final assembly started, with ~550 orders to fulfill A380 firmly installed as the aircraft of preference wherever flown
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