asx release 21 October 2015 Presentation to Morgans Queensland Conference Please find attached the presentation that Transurban CEO Scott Charlton will be delivering at today s Morgans Queensland Conference. Julie Galligan Company Secretary Investor enquiries Jessica O Brien Investor Relations Manager +613 8656 8364 Classification Transurban Group Transurban International Limited ABN 90 121 746 825 Transurban Holdings Limited ABN 86 098 143 429 Transurban Holding Trust ABN 30 169 362 255 ARSN 098 807 419 corporate@transurban.com www.transurban.com Level 23 Tower One, Collins Square 727 Collins Street Docklands Victoria 3008 Australia Telephone +613 8656 8900 Facsimile +613 9649 7380 Level 9 1 Chifley Square Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Telephone +612 9254 4900 Facsimile +612 9254 4990
SCOTT CHARLTON, CEO TRANSURBAN 2015 MORGANS CONFERENCE 1
TRANSURBAN SNAPSHOT TRANSURBAN OWNS AND OPERATES TOLL ROADS TRANSURBAN IS AN ASX TOP 20 COMPANY WITH A MARKET CAP OVER $19 BILLION 4 14 9 NETWORKS ASSETS DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES 2
STRATEGY To be the partner of choice with governments providing effective and innovative urban road infrastructure utilising core capabilities NETWORK PLANNING / FORECASTING COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT / DELIVERY TECHNOLOGY OPERATIONS AND CUSTOMER MANAGEMENT 3
THE VALUE OF THE NETWORK TRAFFIC AND TOLLING Traffic growth through economic cycles Fully electronic tolling with dynamic pricing capability Inflation linked pricing DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL Partner of choice with government Near-term and long-term value sources pricing arrangements/concession extensions Balanced risk profile NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS Urban Relieving existing congestion Attractive demographics population, employment and income Supportive political and legislative environment OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCIES Economies of scale Early adoption of proven technology Active network management Customer focus POLICY POSITIONING Unique insights into road user preferences Active role in industry innovation Community and stakeholder focus 4
TRANSURBAN S PORTFOLIO AUSTRALIA NETWORK MELBOURNE SYDNEY ASSET CITYLINK HILLS M2 CROSS CITY TUNNEL LANE COVE TUNNEL M1 EASTERN DISTRIBUTOR WESTLINK M7 M5 MOTORWAY LENGTH 22km 21km 2.1km 3.8km 6km 40km 22km Transurban ownership % of proportional FY15 group toll revenue Remaining Concession Life 1 100% 100% 100% 100% 75.1% 50% 50% 37.0% 14.2% 3.5% 4.8% 5.5% 8.3% 6.5% 19.5 years 33 years 20.5 years 33 years 33 years 33 years 11.5 years 1. Remaining concession term is as at 30 June 2015 rounded to the nearest half year. 5
TRANSURBAN S PORTFOLIO AUSTRALIA UNITED STATES NETWORK BRISBANE WASHINGTON DC ASSET GATEWAY LOGAN CLEM7 GO BETWEEN BRIDGE LEGACY WAY 495 EXPRESS LANES 95 EXPRESS LANES LENGTH 23.1km 38.7km 6.8km 0.3km 5.7km 22km 46.6km Transurban ownership % of proportional FY15 group toll revenue 62.5% 62.5% 62.5% 62.5% 62.5% 100% 100% 7.6% 5.9% 1.9% 0.5% n/a 2.8% 1.5% Remaining Concession Life 1 36.5 years 36.5 years 36 years 48.5 years 50 years 72.5 years 72.5 years 1. Remaining concession term is as at 30 June 2015 rounded to the nearest half year. Gateway and Logan operate under a single concession. 6
CITYLINK TULLA WIDENING MELBOURNE OVERVIEW Extra lanes to add 30% more capacity Upgraded Bolte Bridge to West Gate Freeway connection to improve safety Improvements to Bell Street entry and exit Installation of digitised tolling and traffic management systems, enhancing road safety and reliability State Government will undertake widening works from CityLink to the airport 7
CITYLINK TULLA WIDENING PROJECT ECONOMICS PROJECT ECONOMICS Toll price Index of minimum 4.5% extended by one year Truck multiplier (effective in one increment 1 April 2017) HCV tolls move from 1.9 x to 3 x HCV (day) from 1.3x to 3x HCV (night) from 1.0x to 2x LCV (day) from 1.3x to 1.6x LCV (night) from 1.0x to 1.6x Concession extension One year extension Traffic uplift 22 additional lane kms from project Project costs $1 billion 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2032 2033 2034 2035 8
NORTHCONNEX SYDNEY OVERVIEW Nine kilometre twin tunnels connecting the southern end of the M1 Pacific Highway to the Hills M2 Motorway at the Pennant Hills Road interchange Upgrade works to the Hills M2 to integrate the NorthConnex project, providing 3.5 kilometres of additional lane (westbound) from the merge point of the M2 and NorthConnex to Windsor Rd Construction underway. The project is due to be completed in 2019 9
NORTH CONNEX PROJECT ECONOMICS Truck toll multiplier and escalation Westlink M7 from 1x to 3x over a two year period Lane Cove Tunnel 1 from 2x to 3x over a two year period 2 Capital costs & expenditure $2.9b including $800m Government contribution directly $105m Hills M2 integration works 1 Payments of $200m to State Gov 1 New tolls and concession NorthConnex opening Tolls aligned with M2 main toll point Approximate 29-year concession to June 2048 Concession extension LCT 11.5 year concession extension to June 2048 1 Westlink M7 11.4 year concession extension to June 2048 Hills M2 2.1 year concession extension to June 2048 1 2015 2017 2019 2021 2037 2039 2043 2045 2047 2049 1. Ancillary funding agreed between Transurban and NSW Government. 2. Quarterly escalation rate for Lane Cove Tunnel trucks to move to the greater of CPI or one percent per quarter (currently CPI) after the high truck multiplier has been phased in. 10
WESTERN DISTRIBUTOR MELBOURNE OVERVIEW Upgrading Cook Street and the West Gate Freeway to Bolte Bridge ramp, complementing port works already underway 50% additional capacity by adding two lanes each way from M80 Ring Road to the Western Distributor tunnel portal Tunnel and elevated motorway connecting the West Gate Fwy with the port, CityLink and the CBD 11
TRANSURBAN QUEENSLAND AIRPORTLINK Sale process underway Operational efficiencies uniquely available to TQ consortium GATEWAY UPGRADE NORTH TQ managing project on behalf of the Queensland Government D&C contractor appointed TQ INTEGRATION Integration program on track Realising significant operational and financial benefits ~360 bps margin improvement since acquisition Further margin benefits expected from technology and O&M LEGACY WAY Opened 25 June 2015 Opened well relative to expectations LOGAN MOTORWAY Actively exploring solutions to relieve bottlenecks 12
GATEWAY UPGRADE NORTH OVERVIEW Widening of 11km section of the highway $1 billion project Partnered with Queensland and Federal Government to deliver project on their behalf 13
LEGACY WAY SUCCESSFUL OPENING OPERATION 1 ST QUARTER OF OPERATIONS LENGTH OF TUNNEL 4.6km NUMBER OF LANES 4 (2 lanes each direction) OPENING DATE 1 25 June 2015 TOLL PRICE (CARS) 2 $3.00 ESCALATION Brisbane CPI annually (1 July) AVERAGE WORK DAY TRAFFIC 19,000 1. Legacy Way opened to traffic on 25 June 2015. Transurban Queensland reached financial close for the acquisition of Legacy Way on 29 June 2015. 2. The first discount toll period will run until 15 November 2015. From 16 November 2015 until 1 May 2016, the second discount period will run; the toll price for cars will be $3.90. From 2 May 2016, the full toll ($4.85) will apply. 14
LEGACY WAY NETWORK BENEFITS Traffic uplift on AirportLink since opening of Legacy Way during discount toll period ~10% increase in traffic since opening of Legacy Way during discount toll period Government to upgrade Kingsford Smith Drive, a free competing route for AirportLink 15
INVESTMENT DISCIPLINE COMPARISON OF TCL AND VENDOR TRAFFIC FORECASTS TCL APPROACH CLEM7 YEAR-ON-YEAR TRAFFIC GROWTH (AADT%) Commitment to accurate forecasting alignment of interest as long-term operator Detailed network modelling enables rigorous assessment of key inputs Modelling underpinned by extensive range of variables FY15 ACTUAL FY15 TCL INVESTMENT CASE FY15 VENDOR CORE (P50) 1 ESTIMATE CLEM7 long term vendor forecast ~34% higher than TCL Supported by a well-established and experienced in-house team of traffic modellers - TCL has a track record of producing accurate traffic forecasts to assess development opportunities 0.5% 0.3% 2.9% CCT long term vendor forecast ~29% higher than TCL 1. P50 case assumes 50% probability of meeting or exceeding forecast. 16
POSITIONING FOR THE FUTURE SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES EMERGING THROUGH TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY Road network pricing opportunities Efficient road network operations Optimised traffic management Expanded customer interfaces 17
TECHNOLOGY NO LONGER A BARRIER GPS ON BOARD DIAGNOSTIC (OBD) CONNECTOR INTRODUCED 2000: personal GPS products launched 2007: OBD connector mandated as standard for Australian vehicles CURRENT STATE IN AUSTRALIA CRITICAL MASS 18.5 million GPS-enabled smartphones in use 60% of vehicle fleet have an OBD connector TELEMATICS DEVICE 2000: $2,000 per device $350 per device (medium price) FAST MOBILE DATA 1991: 2G data (9.6kbp/s) introduced in Australia 4G data network rolled out (100 mbp/s) 18
ROAD USAGE STUDY 1,200 participants across the Greater Melbourne area Distance-based per kilometre charge Price per trip Monthly charge for a set number of kilometres 10 cents per km $1.30 per trip $100 for 1,000km 19
QUESTIONS SCOTT CHARLTON 20