STUDY WORK GROUP MEETING No. 2 March 15, 2016
Agenda Welcome and introductions Brief overview of previous SWG meeting Airport focus group meeting results Summary of existing airport conditions Passenger demand analysis conclusions Overview of preliminary aviation forecasts Comments, questions and next steps
Team Introductions Mead & Hunt, Inc. - offices in Fargo and Bismarck Bart Gover, Project Manager Jon Scraper, Project Coordinator Jen Boehm, Project Engineer Matt Blankenship, Project Planner Matt Dubbe, Terminal Architect Joseph Pickering, Air Service Dave Dietz, Lead Aviation Forecaster Kim Kenville Consulting Grand Forks Public Outreach Program Stakeholder Focus Groups
Overview of Previous Meeting What is a master plan Comprehensive study: short, medium and long-term development Roadmap for future development Why a Master Plan Address key issues impacting Airport Focus on landside and airside access Meet customer needs and demands Required by FAA
Overview of Previous Meeting SWG 1 SWG 2 SWG 3 SWG 4 Master Plan Process 4 Study Work Group Meetings Phase 1, 2, 3, and before public meeting Moderate effort periods Phase 2 and 3 Study Work Group member role and responsibilities Key project issues, goals, and objectives
Overview of Previous Meeting Study Work Group Roles and Responsibilities Serve as a communication link with respective stakeholders Sounding board for study recommendations Active meeting participation High level review of draft working papers
Overview of Previous Meeting Key Project Issues, Goals and Objectives Focus on customer service opportunities Enhancing the passenger experience Terminal development and expansion Runway rehabilitation Promote land use compatibility Air cargo development Vehicular parking expansion
Focus Group Meetings
Focus Group Meetings In consultation with the Airport Management team at BIS several groups were identified for focus group conversations in December 2015 10 groups were identified and contacted for 1-1.5 hour meetings in the second week of December After a schedule had been set, a series of questions regarding the airport were sent to the participants, along with a brief description of Airport Master Planning
Focus Groups Chamber/Business Community Airline Ground Service Providers Air Cargo Providers Ground Transportation Service providers Government Partners General Aviation Users Adjacent Landowners Airport Employees City/County/Economic Development and Planners Airline Representatives
Emerging Themes Each group said they were exceptionally proud of Bismarck s Front Door The Airport Terminal 1. Preserve the beauty and functionality of the terminal while accommodating the need for growth and expansion 2. Landside expansion of parking, car rentals and access to other airport buildings and businesses
Emerging Themes 3. Other facility growth needs E911 Maintenance and ARFF Radar Platt Drawing addresses for the airport facilities 4. General Aviation future plans 5. Upgrade the use of Technology where appropriate Website, mobile-friendly applications
Emerging Themes 6. Organizational Cross Training for continued efficiencies Succession Planning in critical areas
Preliminary SWOT Analysis Terminal Cargo growth (10-20%) 2 FBOs ARNG Airfield Amenities STRENGTHS Employee Team City Ownership No Debt Public Support Adequate Property Terminal Congestion Baggage make-up Loss of GA to Mandan Cross Training (MX/Ops) Professional Development WEAKNESSES Parking Issues SRE/ARFF Equipment Age Ground Handlers Signage for Exiting Vehicles OPPORTUNITIES Additional Allegiant Flights Non-Aeronautical Land Development Corporate Development Bus Route Uber E911 Growth Longer term lease with Gas Station THREATS Economy Pilot Shortage (no mainline service) FAA Funding Cost of Construction Rising Operating Costs Allegiant stability Janitorial - continued terminal excellence
Inventory of Existing Conditions
Inventory Role of Airport History Land Use Demographics Economic Impact Airside Landside Airspace
Airport Role Federal (NPIAS) Primary Non-hub Commercial Service Airport (more than 10,000 enplanements, making up < 0.05% of national total) State same as Federal guidelines Local one of area s vital links to global economy
History Historical aviation events specific to Bismarck and US Aviation in Bismarck is nearly as old as aviation itself
Bismarck Airport Historical Timeline
Surrounding Environment/Land Use Meteorological Conditions 85 /57 July to 23 /2 January Soil Composition Loamy sand and silt Regional Climate Humid Continental climate temperature extremes Surrounding Land Uses Ranching/farming
Surrounding Land Use Map
Demographics Socioeconomic Population Retail Sales Employment Economic Impact 2015 North Dakota Aviation Economic Impact Study
Statistics and Airport Economic Impacts
Airport Tenants
Airside Runways Taxiways Aprons Cargo Area NAVAIDs Weather Reporting Equipment
Runway Data Summary
Airfield Layout
Landside Parking ARFF SRE Fuel Storage Facilities Electrical Vaults ATCT Terminal
Terminal Facilities Map
Hangar & Support Facilities Map
Airspace General Facility (Class D) Part 77 Runway Protection Zones Threshold Siting Surfaces NAVAID Critical
Airline Terminal Security Checkpoint Holdroom Ticketing Baggage Claim Rental Car Concessions Office Space Curbfront
TSA Checkpoint and Holdroom
Ticketing and Baggage Claim
Concessions and Rental Car
Administrative Offices and Curbfront
Airport Terminal Building Level One
Airport Terminal Building Level Two
Passenger Demand Analysis
Passenger Demand Analysis Overview Methodology Airport Use True Market Estimate Forecast Insights
Passenger Demand Analysis Overview Develop information on the travel patterns of local airline passengers who reside in the Bismarck Airport (BIS) air service catchment area and provide insights into the Master Plan enplanement forecast, including: Originating airports used by air travelers Diversion of airline passenger traffic to competing airports Estimate of total airline passengers in the catchment area and related destinations Airlines used by local air travelers Average airfares by origin and destination airport Service levels at BIS and competing airports Assessment of the air service situation at BIS
Methodology Provides objective air traveler data compiled from industry accepted sources: Combines Airline Reporting Corporation (ARC) ticketed data and US Department of Transportation (DOT) airline data to provide a comprehensive overview of the air travel market ARC data represents a sample of air travelers and includes tickets purchased through travel agencies in the BIS catchment area as well as tickets purchased via online travel agencies in the BIS catchment area but does not capture tickets issued directly by airline Web sites Includes schedule, enplanement, airfare and capacity trends Year-ending June 30, 2015 bookings and O&D data
BIS Air Service Catchment Area 64 zip codes Estimated population 154,260 Conservative representative of the local market geographic area closest to airport 14,090 ARC tickets Source: December 2015 Passenger Demand Analysis, Mead & Hunt
Airport Use Due to geographic isolation, diversion to alternate airports is not a major issue. FAR 6% MOT 1% BIS 93% RANK ORIGINATING AIRPORT AIRPORT USE PAX % Domestic 1 BIS 477,776 93 2 FAR 30,375 6 3 MOT 8,314 1 Subtotal 516,465 100 International 1 BIS 29,536 94 2 FAR 1,790 6 3 MOT 186 0 Subtotal 31,511 100 Domestic and international 1 BIS 507,312 93 2 FAR 32,164 6 3 MOT 8,500 1 Total 547,976 100
Airport Use Bismarck generates ~ 60% of travel COMMUNITY AIRPORT USE % BIS FAR MOT TRUE MARKET ESTIMATE Bismarck 91 7 2 327,561 Mandan 93 6 1 40,650 Beulah 95 5 0 7,923 Hazen 87 8 5 7,379 Washburn 92 3 5 3,807 New Salem 100 0 0 2,953 Wilton 94 6 0 2,848 Mobridge 92 8 0 2,468 Glen Ullin 84 16 0 2,221 Center 90 4 7 2,020 Menoken 93 0 7 1,926 Wishek 82 18 0 1,860 Linton 100 0 0 1,688 Baldwin 91 9 0 1,651 All Other 88 10 2 21,193 Total 93 6 1 547,976
True Market Estimate Top 25 destinations account for ~2/3 of all travel to/from the BIS catchment area ~41,000 annual travelers use an alternate airports RANK DESTINATION BIS REPORTED PAX DIVERTED PAX TRUE MARKET PDEW 1 Las Vegas, NV 55,005 1,043 56,048 76.8 2 Denver, CO 42,783 1,617 44,400 60.8 3 Phoenix, AZ (AZA) 41,339 0 41,339 56.6 4 Orlando, FL (SFB) 29,100 0 29,100 39.9 5 Minneapolis, MN 23,870 3,056 26,926 36.9 6 Dallas, TX (DFW) 16,603 339 16,942 23.2 7 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) 11,587 760 12,347 16.9 8 Seattle, WA (SEA) 10,608 1,113 11,721 16.1 9 Chicago, IL (ORD) 10,555 933 11,489 15.7 10 Washington, DC (DCA) 9,096 914 10,010 13.7 11 Houston, TX (IAH) 7,455 1,929 9,384 12.9 12 Los Angeles, CA 8,299 1,069 9,368 12.8 13 Orlando, FL (MCO) 7,519 1,041 8,560 11.7 14 San Francisco, CA 7,223 453 7,677 10.5 15 Atlanta, GA 6,217 1,106 7,324 10.0 16 Portland, OR 6,888 336 7,224 9.9 17 San Diego, CA 6,370 531 6,901 9.5 18 Salt Lake City, UT 6,091 656 6,747 9.2 19 New York, NY (LGA) 5,231 648 5,880 8.1 20 Nashville, TN 4,745 915 5,659 7.8 21 Kansas City, MO 5,105 113 5,217 7.1 22 San Antonio, TX 4,148 828 4,975 6.8 23 St. Louis, MO 4,240 725 4,965 6.8 24 Boston, MA 4,188 374 4,562 6.2 25 Detroit, MI 2,951 1,265 4,216 5.8 Top 25 destinations 337,219 21,762 358,981 491.8 Total domestic 477,776 38,689 516,465 707.5 Total international 29,536 1,975 31,511 43.2 All markets 507,312 40,664 547,976 750.7
Originating Airport Nonstop markets had higher retention rates. Just 6% of BIS catchment area travelers use FAR as an alternate airport ORIGIN AIRPORT% RANK DESTINATION BIS FAR MOT TOTAL PAX 1 Las Vegas, NV 98 2 0 56,048 2 Denver, CO 96 3 1 44,400 3 Phoenix, AZ (AZA) 100 0 0 41,339 4 Orlando, FL (SFB) 100 0 0 29,100 5 Minneapolis, MN 89 7 5 26,926 6 Dallas, TX (DFW) 98 1 1 16,942 7 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) 94 5 1 12,347 8 Seattle, WA (SEA) 91 6 4 11,721 9 Chicago, IL (ORD) 92 7 1 11,489 10 Washington, DC (DCA) 91 8 1 10,010 11 Houston, TX (IAH) 79 9 12 9,384 12 Los Angeles, CA 89 9 2 9,368 13 Orlando, FL (MCO) 88 11 1 8,560 14 San Francisco, CA 94 4 2 7,677 15 Atlanta, GA 85 13 2 7,324 16 Portland, OR 95 4 1 7,224 17 San Diego, CA 92 7 0 6,901 18 Salt Lake City, UT 90 8 2 6,747 19 New York, NY (LGA) 89 7 4 5,880 20 Nashville, TN 84 12 4 5,659 21 Kansas City, MO 98 1 1 5,217 22 San Antonio, TX 83 15 1 4,975 23 St. Louis, MO 85 8 7 4,965 24 Boston, MA 92 8 0 4,562 25 Detroit, MI 70 24 6 4,216 Top 25 domestic 94 4 2 358,981 Total domestic 93 6 1 516,465
Enplanements Trend 275,000 250,000 225,000 200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 Enplanements (YE 6/30) MSA Population (CY) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Ended June 30/Calendar Year CAGR of 4.3% well above national averages Growth attributable to diversified economy
Influencing Factors Bismarck airfares $23 higher than Fargo but $24 lower than Minot Slightly fewer weekly flights than Fargo but significantly more than Minot AIRCRAFT TYPE Regional jet Mainline jet SEAT WEEKLY DEPARTURES RANGE BIS FAR MOT 30-50 71 98 54 51-70 14 2 14 71-100 7 25-126-160 5 14 2 160+ 4 8 2 Total departures 101 147 72 % regional jet departures 91% 85% 94% Total seats 6,460 10,452 4,310 Source: Diio Mi; Note: Sample week in June 2015 Service levels and future enplanements closely tied to the energy sector RJ replacement will lead to larger aircraft per flight Additional frequency on strong single flight markets Seasonal shifts in capacity
Aviation Forecasts
Historical Passenger Enplanements 300,000 Historical Passenger Enplanements 250,000 200,000 150,000 Record snow falls followed by widespread flooding ineastern North Dakota disrupts state economy Economic effects of oil exploration boom arrive 100,000 50,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year
Historic and Forecast Passenger Enplanements 500,000 Historical and Forecast Passenger Enplanements Annual Enplanements (Boardings) 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 HISTORICAL 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 YEAR FORECAST PERIOD BIS Actual Enplanement Per Population (E/P) Trend Line (2005-2015) Population Regression FAA TAF (2016) FAA TAF (2015)
Historical Based Aircraft Fleet Mix 120 100 TOTAL Based Aircraft 80 60 40 SINGLE- ENGINE 20 0 MULTI- ENGINE 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Grand Single-Engine Multi-Engine Jet Helicopter Military Total Other Note: Total includes civilian and military HELICOPTER MILITARY JET
Historic and Future Based Aircraft 160 140 Based Aircraft 120 100 80 60 HISTORICAL FORECAST 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year Historical 2016 Low Forecast High Forecast
Historic and Forecast Based Aircraft Type Mix of Based Aircraft Types Historical and Forecast Aircraft Type 2015 2035 Forecast Low High Total (Civilian + Military) 117 133 150 CAGR -- 0.63% 1.25% Civilian Total Civilian 100 116 133 Single-Engine Piston 63 70 75 Twin-Engine Piston 15 13 15 Single-Engine Turboprop 2 3 3 Twin-Engine Turboprop 7 9 12 Jet - Small Cabin 8 14 17 Jet - Medium/Large Cabin 2 3 4 Helicopter 3 4 6 CAGR -- 0.73% 1.43% Military - North Dakota Army National Guard Total Military 17 17 17 Helicopter 16 16 16 Fixed-Wing 1 1 1
Historic and Forecast Aircraft Operations 70,000 Exhibit 2-8: Historic and Forecast Operations, 2005-2035 65,000 ANNUAL AIRPORT OPERATIONS 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 HISTORICAL 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 BIS Historical BIS Forecast FAA TAF (2015) FORECAST PERIOD FAA TAF (2016)
Historic Air Cargo 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 Bismarck Air Cargo in Pounds, 2007-2015 Pounds 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000-2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year All Cargo Cargo Carriers USPS and Passager Airline Cargo
Historic and Forecast Air Cargo Volumes 9.0 8.5 8.0 Historical and Forecast Air Cargo Volumes MILLIONS OF POUNDS 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Historical Data BaselineTrend Energy Boom Trend
Critical Aircraft: Airbus A-320 Series Aircraft Design Characteristics: Aircraft Type: Narrowbody Transport Approach Speed: ±134 Knots Wingspan: ±150 to ±180 Tail height: 38.7' Maximum Weight: 172,000 Pounds Seating Configuration: 150 to 180 Passengers Cockpit to Main Gear (CMG) 50.2' Wheelbase 41.5' Main Gear Width (MGW) 29.4'
Summary of Preferred Aviation Forecasts Summary of Preferred Forecasts Category 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS 259,734 296,308 341,525 386,743 431,961 TOTAL ANNUAL OPERATIONS 58,536 58,536 60,987 63,339 65,598 Itinerant Operations 41,012 42,497 43,911 45,731 47,559 Local Operations 15,697 16,039 17,076 17,735 18,039 BASED AIRCRAFT 117 120 124 128 133 Single-Engine Piston 65 66 67 68 70 Twin-Engine Piston 13 13 13 12 13 Turboprop 9 10 10 11 12 Jet 10 11 13 15 17 Helicopter 3 3 4 4 4 Military 17 17 17 17 17 AIR CARGO (Pounds) 7,932,840 6,914,516 7,379,439 7,875,623 8,405,170
Comments & Questions Open discussion Contact Airport Tim Thorsen tthorsen@bismarcknd.gov Contact the Project Manager Bart Gover bart.gover@meadhunt.com Bismarck Airport Master Plan Webpage is operational Will serve as an electronic data room for all project documents and information Accessed from BIS Airport Webpage
Next Steps Hold Public Workshop No. 1 (March 16 th 5-7PM) Incorporate public feedback Submit forecast to FAA for review/approval Identify future airfield capacity and facilities necessary to support growth over next 20-years Conduct airport alternatives analysis to address future facility development Identify a preferred alternative concept for development of Airport Layout Plans (ALP) package Hold SWG Meeting No. 3 (late summer 2016) Hold Public Meeting No. 2 (late summer 2016)