Page 1 of 7 MEMORANDUM TO: Planning, Development and Environment Committee FROM: Neil Ralston, Airport Planner Airport Development (726-8129) SUBJECT: 2035 MSP LONG TERM COMPREHENSIVE PLAN FORECAST, FACILITY REQUIREMENTS, AND STAKEHOLDER OUTREACH DATE: March 31, 2015 At the April, 2015 meeting of the Planning, Development and Environment Committee, staff will provide an overview of the Forecast, Facility Requirements, and Stakeholder Outreach elements of the 2035 Long-Term Comprehensive Plan (LTCP) for the Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport (MSP). The purpose of the LTCP is to update our view of facility needs for the next 20 years and to serve as the road map to guide our development strategy for MSP. The plan will recommend concepts for the types and locations of facility improvements needed to accommodate projected demand through the planning horizon, along with providing guidance on phasing and scheduling throughout the 20-year program. The Long-Term Comprehensive Plan is updated routinely every five years to reconcile everchanging trends in the industry. It does not authorize any construction. It is helpful however in shaping the 7-year Capital Improvement Program which is the implementation vehicle of the Commission. Attachment 1 is a glossary of key terms which may be of assistance during this discussion. Activity Forecast: The 2035 MSP LTCP forecast provides aviation activity projections through the 20- year planning horizon to serve as the basis for deriving facility needs. The elements of the forecast include passenger originations and enplanements, passenger aircraft operations, aircraft fleet mix, and design day flight schedules. Also included are projections of air cargo tonnage, and air cargo, air taxi, general aviation, and military aircraft operations. The forecast is unconstrained in nature, meaning that sufficient airfield, terminal, and landside facilities are expected to be in place to accommodate the activity levels dictated by demand. The forecast includes activity projections for milestone years 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035. A preliminary version of the forecast for passenger-related activities through 2030 was presented to the Committee in September 2014. The projection for passenger activity has now been extended through 2035 and updated to reflect actual 2014 year-end traffic levels. There are no substantial differences between the preliminary forecast presented in September 2014 and the final draft forecast presented herein. A tabular summary of the Base Case MSP 2035 LTCP forecast follows: Revenue Passenger Total Aircraft Operations Enplanements ACTUAL 2013 16,369,938 431,573 2014 17,002,809 411,760 Historical High 17,984,311 (2005) 541,093 (2004) FORECAST 2015 17,587,794 411,036 2020 18,798,673 427,270 2025 21,137,924 449,081 2030 23,794,889 477,762 2035 26,898,904 511,315 Compound Annual Growth Rate ( 14 35) 2.2% 1.0%
Page 2 of 7 The following table compares the results of Base Case 2035 LTCP forecast with forecasts prepared for the previous LTCP in 2009 and the 2020 Improvements Environmental Assessment (EA) in 2012: Year 2030 Revenue Passenger Enplanements Year 2030 Total Aircraft Operations 2030 LTCP (2009 forecast) 28,431,850 630,837 2020 Improvements EA (2012 forecast) 26,411,706 567,396 2035 LTCP (2015 forecast) 23,794,889 477,762 When compared to these previous forecasts, the Base Case 2035 LTCP forecast is lower in terms of both revenue passenger enplanements and total aircraft operations for the planning horizon year of 2030 (the out-year for the previous projections). We have also prepared High and Low forecast scenarios so that the planning team can test the sensitivity of various development options to fluctuating demand levels. The following figures graphically show the Base Case 2035 LTCP forecast in relation to the envelope of the High and Low forecast scenario ranges. FIGURE 1 2035 LTCP PASSENGER ENPLANEMENT FORECAST RANGE 35.0 Revenue Passenger Enplanements (millions) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2035 LTCP Forecast Scenario Envelope Historical Enplanements 2035 LTCP Base Forecast
Page 3 of 7 FIGURE 2 2035 LTCP AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECAST RANGE 700.0 600.0 Aircraft Operations (Thousands) 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2035 LTCP Forecast Scenario Envelope Historical 2035 LTCP Base Forecast Facility Requirements: Upon completion of the activity forecasts, the next step is to assess the capabilities of existing facilities to accommodate projected demand levels through a Facility Requirements Analysis. An overview of the planning parameters (operational factors) and level of service standards (performance criteria) used to guide the facility requirements analysis was provided at the March Committee briefing. Identical to the previous LTCP document prepared in 2010, the Facility Requirements analysis is evaluating two distinct scenarios related to facility development: The Airlines Remain Scenario represents continuation of the existing condition where all non- Delta affiliated carriers operating at Terminal 1 remain and grow organically at Terminal 1 through the planning horizon; The Airlines Relocate Scenario represents the balanced terminal concept where all non-delta affiliated carriers (except Great Lakes) relocate to Terminal 2 within the planning horizon. As an example of the facility requirements analysis completed to date, Attachments 2 and 3 depict a level of service gap-assessment illustrating the adequacy of existing processing facilities within the terminals to accommodate demand levels projected for milestone years in the forecast. Additional details and findings from the analysis will be provided during the Committee briefing. Stakeholder Outreach: The LTCP outreach plan proposes three phases that are patterned after the engagement efforts conducted during the last LTCP effort five years ago.
Page 4 of 7 First, we will meet with stakeholders in the mid-april through June timeframe, before the draft plan is finalized, to provide information about the plan s purpose, process, preliminary findings, and timeline. This will include briefings with: Municipal planning departments in surrounding communities, and to their plan commissions and/or City Councils if requested Other agencies such as the FAA, MnDOT, and the Metropolitan Council Internal tenant groups Interested members of the public at an informational meeting The second phase will be the formal public review period after the draft plan has been completed and approved by the MAC for public distribution. We are envisioning a 30 to 45-day written comment period, with two public information meetings scheduled during this timeframe. Finally, after the public comment period closes, we will work to incorporate feedback into the plan and prepare a final draft for MAC adoption and Metropolitan Council formal review. During this time, we will continue to conduct stakeholder outreach on an as-needed basis. THIS IS AN INFORMATIONAL ITEM ONLY; NO COMMITTEE ACTION IS REQUIRED.
Page 5 of 7 Glossary of Key Terms: Aircraft Fleet Mix: The types of aircraft operating at MSP grouped into categories with similar size and performance characteristics. Aircraft Operations: Total aircraft takeoffs and landings. Airlines Relocate Scenario: An LTCP forecast scenario where all non-delta affiliated carriers (except Great Lakes) relocate to Terminal 2 within the planning horizon. Airlines Remain Scenario: An LTCP forecast scenario where all non-delta affiliated carriers operating at Terminal 1 remain and grow organically at Terminal 1 through the planning horizon. Check-in Positions: Ticket counter locations where passengers interact with airline agents or kiosk devices to obtain boarding passes and/or check baggage. Checkpoint: The passenger security screening checkpoint operated by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). Claim Devices: Carousels in the baggage claim area where passengers retrieve checked baggage from an arriving flight. Connecting Passengers: Passengers who arrive at MSP from another airport and depart from MSP on a connecting flight. Design-Day Flight Schedule: A sample flight schedule representing the average weekday in the peak month for a particular forecast scenario. The schedule includes flight information such as origin and destination, arrival and departure time, and aircraft type. Enplaned Passengers: Total revenue passengers boarding at MSP; includes both originating and connecting passengers. Gates: Parking positions where aircraft load and unload passengers and baggage. LTCP: Long-Term Comprehensive Plan. Originating Passengers: Passengers who start their trip at MSP. Outbound Carts: Staging position for carts used by airlines to sort and transport outbound baggage from the terminal to departing aircraft. ATTACHMENT 1
Page 6 of 7 MSP 2035 LTCP Facility Requirements Analysis Level of Service Gap Analysis Summary Terminal Requirements Airlines Remain Scenario Facility Shortfall Facility Adequacy Terminal 2-Humphrey Terminal 1-Lindbergh Source: Ricondo & Associates ATTACHMENT 2
Page 7 of 7 MSP 2035 LTCP Facility Requirements Analysis Level of Service Gap Analysis Summary Terminal Requirements Airlines Relocate Scenario Terminal 1-Lindbergh Facility Shortfall Facility Adequacy Terminal 2-Humphrey Source: Ricondo & Associates ATTACHMENT 3