Rain Coast Data SOUTHEAST CONFERENCE S Annual Economic Report to the Region Southeast Alaska by the Numbers 2016
Yakutat MAP OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA Southeast Alaska & AMHS FERRY ROUTE Klukwan 1,000+ Islands 500 Miles 18,500 shoreline 34 Communities 10% of AK Economy Skagway Haines Elfin Cove Gustavus Pelican Hoonah Tenakee Sitka Port Alexander Juneau Angoon Kake Petersburg Point Baker Port Protection Wrangell Edna Bay Whale Pass Naukati Coffman Cove Klawock Thorne Bay Craig Kasaan Hyder Hydaburg Hollis Ketchikan Metlakatla
Yakutat MAP OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA Southeast Alaska & AMHS FERRY ROUTE Klukwan Skagway Haines Elfin Cove Gustavus Pelican Hoonah Tenakee Angoon 32 YE AR S Sitka Juneau Port Alexander Kake Petersburg Point Baker Port Protection Wrangell Edna Bay Whale Pass Naukati Coffman Cove Klawock Thorne Bay Craig Kasaan Hyder Hydaburg Hollis Ketchikan Metlakatla
Changes in Southeast Alaska: 1960 to 2007 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 32 YEARS 16 YEARS 16 Year Recession 1959 1991 2007
Changes in Southeast Alaska: 1960 to 2015 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 32 YEARS 16 YEARS 8 YEARS 1959 1991 2007 2015
Changes in Southeast Alaska: The Last 5 Years Population +2,700 +4% Labor force +1,950 +4% Job Earnings + $308 million (+16%)
Changes in Alaska: The Last 5 Years Alaska Population +4% (SE 4%) Labor force +4.5% (SE 4%) Job Earnings +19% (SE 16%)
Changes in Southeast Alaska: The Last Year Population -165 people -0.2% Labor force +450 jobs +1% Job Earnings + $33 million (+1.5%)
Changes in Alaska: The Last Year Population +0.04% (SE -0.2%) Workforce +0.4% (SE +1%) Job Earnings +3% (SE +1.5%)
Impact of State Fiscal Crisis 32 YEARS 16 YEARS 8 YEARS??? 1991 2007 2015
74,395 People -165 73,082 Demographics 70,504 70,219 71,399 71,712 71,546 72,250 72,214 71,853 71,141 71,664 73,720 74,324 74,391 74,560 74,395 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Those 65-79 increased by 42% +2,350 since 2010 Median Age SE=39.5 AK=34.5 One- Third 60+ Southeast Adults
21,465 19,780 16,458 12,018 319 4,356 Greatest Generation 1901-1924 Silent Generation 1925-1943 Baby Boomers 1944-1964 Generation X 1965-1981 Millennial Gen Y 1982-2002 Generation Z 2003 - now
2015 Southeast Alaska Employment Earnings $2.2 billion Government 35% Seafood 12% Visitors 9% Trade 7% 46,150 Jobs Other 6% Social, Info, Timber 4% Mining 4% Professional Services 6% Financial Activities 5% Private Health Care 6% Construction 6%
Southeast Alaska Employment as a % of All Earnings, Compared to AK Government 26% 35% Seafood 4% 12% Southeast Alaska Alaska Visitors 6% 9% Oil and Gas Industry 0% 0% 11%
Southeast Workforce Earnings Mining $103,000 Financial Activities Government Avg. Private Sector Social Services Visitor Industry $66,000 $57,000 $44,050 $29,180 $28,000
Visitor Industry 7,400 Jobs U P 480 JOBS IN 2015 +7% Tourism 16% Tourism 9%
Total Arriving Passengers 1.4 million Cruise Air Ferry 2016 = Likely Best Year Ever 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Southeast Alaska Arriving Passengers 2015 All Tourists Cruise 70% Air 29% Ferry 2% Cruise 85% Air 11% Ferry 4%
Trends: 2015 = top year ever
2015 994,000 passengers Cruise 85% of all Tourists
Southeast Alaska Cruise Passengers New Record Expected 2018 1,024 1,014 994 967 999 937 883 875 1,018 1,030 peak in 2008 1,017 951 948 884 777 741 690 640 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Trends: 2016 = 480 voyages 31 cruise ships larger ships replacing smaller vessels ex: Island Princess 1,992 Ruby Princess 3,082 in 2015
Panamax+ Docks: Juneau will have the capacity to host four 1,000-foot vessels at a time
Alaska Tourism Marketing Budget $20 $19 $18.7 million $18 $17.9 million $12 Value Axis $10 $12.0 million $1.5 million $2 $0 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Mining Industry 800 Jobs U P 12 JOBS IN 2015 +2% $1,572 $1,669 GOLD PRICES 2008-2016 $1,225 $1,411 $1,266 $1,160 $1,251 $892 $972 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Half 2016
The Blue Economy Southeast Maritime 6,850 Jobs Alaska Maritime 29,000 Jobs 27% Maritime as a % of all private sector earnings 11% Total Wages: $400 Million Total Wages: $1.6 Billion
SOUTHEAST MARITIME: 6,850 Jobs Fishing & Seafood Processing Jobs: 4,370 Marine Tourism Jobs: 900 Marine Transportation Jobs: 410 US Coast Guard Jobs: 830 Ship Building, Repair, Marinas Jobs: 280 Marine Related Construction Jobs: 30 U P 80 JOBS IN 2015 +1%
Seafood Industry 4,365 Jobs D OWN 7 JOBS IN 2015 0%
500 375 250 125 VALUE & POUNDS OF SEAFOOD LANDED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA TEN YEARS $140 $230 $320 $410 $163 Nominal Ex-Vessel Value (millions) Landed Pounds (millions) $357 $319 $274 $214 $217 $185 $375 $267 $224 247 320 220 283 278 396 268 479 301 301 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Seafood 301 Million Pounds of Seafood Landed in Southeast by Species, 2015 Other Salmon 41% Herring 7% Pink Salmon 44% Blackcod 3% Hal i Cr but 2% Ot ab he 2% r3 %
Healthcare 3,300 Jobs D OWN 30 JOBS IN 2015-1% Healthcare 8%
Construction Industry 2,120 Jobs D OWN 50 JOBS IN 2015-2% $400 $200 $0 $385 Capital Appropriations in Southeast Millions $215 $183 $107 $47 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
1983 to 2015 Timber Industry 320 Jobs D OWN 7 JOBS IN 2015-2%
Timber 12% Prince of Wales Island Employment Mining 5% Earnings
Government 13,500 Jobs D OWN 100 JOBS IN 2015-1% State 5,280 Jobs Federal 8% Local 11% State 14% Local 5,190 Jobs Tribal 900 Jobs Federal 2,130 Jobs Government wages = 35% of all employment
5,600 State Government Job Losses 5,380 2.5 year loss -500 (-10%) 5,160 4,940 4,720 4,500 2014 2015 July 2016
Avg. Inflation Adjusted Price Per Barrel, 1977-2015 $100 $40 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Avg. Daily Volume of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System and Inflation Adjusted Price Per Barrel, 1977-2015 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2015
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT: EXCLUDING COAST GUARD 2,050 2,000 1,786 1,800 1,786 1,745 1,761 1,700 1,686 1,502 1,480 1,470 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Southeast Alaska Land Ownership Circle size = Number of Acres 16% OTHER FEDERAL TONGASS 78% 3.4% ALASKA NATIVE 2.5% STATE OF ALASKA 0.25% TOWNS THE FEDERALLY-MANAGED TONGASS MAKES UP NEARLY 4/5TH OF ALL SOUTHEAST 0.05% PRIVATE LAND OWNERS
US COAST GUARD EMPLOYMENT: 2010 TO 2016 761 765 788 829 701 607 512 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GUIDE TO READING THE PLAN Summary of economic conditions SWOT Analysis Economic Resilience map Strategic Direction Action Plan Priority Objective Descriptions and Evaluation Framework
Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Top Opportunities Seafood & Ocean Product Development Tourism Energy Mining Promoting Region Timber Maritime 0 10 20 30 40
What will Southeast Alaskans Do? 1 2 3 4 Reduce business costs Increase economic development Reduce government spending/services Increase Taxes 5 Maintain ferry services What will Southeast Alaskans Do?
Southeast Alaska 5 Year Plan Promote strong economies, healthy communities, and a quality environment in Southeast Alaska. Transportation Priority Minimize Impacts of Budget Cuts to AMHS and Develop Sustainable Operational Model. Road Development. Move Freight to and from Markets More Efficiently. Ensure the Stability of Regional Transportation Services Outside of AMHS. Energy Priority Work with Federal and State Government to Promote Regional Energy Projects. Priority Diesel Displacement. Support Community Efforts to Create Sustainable Power Systems That Provide Affordable/Renewable Energy. Complete Regional Hydrosite Evaluation for Southeast Alaska. Maritime Maritime Industrial Support Priority Maritime Industrial Support Sector Talent Pipeline: Maritime Workforce Development Plan. Increase Access to Capital for the Regional Maritime Industrial Support Sector. Harbor Improvements. Examine Arctic Exploration Opportunities That the Region as a Whole Can Provide. Seafood Industry Priority Mariculture Development. Priority Full Utilization and Ocean Product Development. Increase Energy Efficiency and Reduce Energy Costs. Regional Seafood Processing. Seafood Markets. Sea Otter Utilization and Sustainable Shellfish. Maintain Stable Regulatory Regime. Visitor Industry Priority Market Southeast Alaska to Attract More Visitors. Improve Access to Public Lands. Increase Flexibility in Terms of Permit Use. Increase Yacht and Small Cruise Ship Visitations. Improve Communications Infrastructure. Advocate for Adequate Funding to Maintain Existing Recreational Infrastructure. Timber Industry Priority Provide an Adequate, Economic and Dependable Supply of Timber from the Tongass National Forest to Regional Timber Operators. Stabilize the Regional Timber Industry. Work With USFS to Direct Federal Contracts Toward Locally-Owned Businesses. Support Small Scale Manufacturing of Wood Products in Southeast Alaska. Continue Old Growth Harvests Until Young Growth Supply is Adequate. Community-Based Workforce Development. Update Young Growth Inventory. Other Objectives Housing: Support Housing Development. Food Security: Increase Production, Accessibility, and Demand of Local Foods. Communications: Improved Access to Telemedicine in Southeast Alaska. Marketing: Market Southeast Alaska as a Region. Solid Waste: Regional Solid Waste Disposal. Arts: Increase Recognition of Southeast Alaska s Thriving Arts Economy. Mining: Minerals & Mining Workforce Development. Attract Research Jobs. Research: Attract Science and Research Jobs to Southeast Alaska. Cultural Wellness: Support Development of Activities and Infrastructure That Promote Cultural Wellness.
2020 Plan Priority Objective #1: Minimize Impacts of Budget Cuts to AMHS and Develop Sustainable Operational Model STEP I: The AMHS Reform Project Phase I: Mission, goals and governance recommendations. Completion expected by December 2016 Phase II: Twenty-five Year Ferry System Operating Plan. January 2017 through December 2017 STEP II: AMHS Value Outreach, STEP III: Address Decreased State Funding Impacts Ongoing through 2020
Southeast Projections: Up 2017 Visitor Industry Retail Sector Mining Industry Seafood
Southeast Projections Down 2017 State Government City Governments Construction Healthcare Timber Population
Thank You SOUTHEAST CONFERENCE