Intense Hurricane Strike Reconstruction, Vieques, Puerto Rico
beach vegetated barrier Caribbean Sea N Vieques, Puerto Rico 200 m b) a) 67ºW 65ºW 1989 1956 18.5ºN 1928 PRP12 headland La Parguera 17.5ºN Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007 (Nature, v. 447, p. 465-468)
Vieques, Puerto Rico Grain Size ocean LPG12 LPG4 mean grain size (μm) LPG3 mean grain size (μm) 0 50 100 150 200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 50 100 150 200 250 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 0 0 2000 1990 1980 1989 (Hugo) 5 1970 1000 yrs BP 100 Age AD 1960 1956 (Betsy) Cs-137 peak (Ca. 1963) 10 1950 1940 Depth (cm) 2500 yrs BP 200 1930 1928 (San Felipe) 15 Depth (cm) 1920 1910 20 300 5000 yrs BP 400 vegetated barrier 3 beach 4 12 N Caribbean Sea 200 m headland Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007 (Nature, v. 447, p. 465-468)
Vieques vs. New York paleo-storm reconstructions 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Vieques Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007 New York Scileppi and Donnelly, 2007 cumulative sum of events since 2500 yrs BP 0 2500 2000 1500 yrs BP 1000 500 0
Controls on Hurricane Activity Vieques Donnelly and Woodruff (2007) SST African Storms Nyberg et al. (2002) upper winds El Niño Laguna Pallcacocha Moy et al. (2002) Lake Ossa, West Cameroon Nguetsop et al. (2004)
Impacts on coastal morpho-dynamics: how will landforms respond?
Reversing Storm Hotspots, October 1997 20 10 0-10 -20 20Oct97-25Oct97 13Oct97-20Oct97 Shoreline change (m) FRF Erosion Accretion Storm erosion and recovery North Carolina Referenc e Line 76 15'W 76 0'W 75 45'W 75 30'W 75 15'W Corolla 0 10 36 15'N 36 15'N 20 Alb ema rle So und 36 0'N 36 0'N 50 35 45'N North Carolina Oregon 35 45'N Inlet 80 Rodanthe 100 35 30'N 35 30'N 30 40 Oregon Inlet W V SC VA Atlantic Ocean 60 70 90 Corolla Oregon Inlet 110 Paml ic o So und Av on 120 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 North Distance along coast (km) South 35 15'N 130 km 35 15'N Hatteras Point 0 10 20 Kilo m e te rs Cape Hatteras 76 15'W 76 0'W 75 45'W 75 30'W 75 15'W Figures from Jeff List, USGS
Dramatic shoreline change N MA N CT RI NL BI 25 km NYC Atlantic Ocean Pre-1938 Hurricane Geometry Sandy Point Upland LITTLE NARRAGANSETT BAY Pawcatuck River 41 o 18 54 N 41 o 19 39 N 1 km Marsh Sand BLOCK ISLAND SOUND 71 o 52 41 W 71 o 51 32 W Adapted from Warren and Niering 1993
1635 pine/scrub oak distribution NORTH 50 km Oyster Pond 1869 Other landscape responses Oyster Pond, MA 1815 1938
Population and wealth have substantially increased Coastal population in the states impacted by the 1821 hurricane (MD, DE, NJ, NY, and CT) now exceeds 31 million Insured coastal property is over 1 trillion dollars Rockaway Beach, NY
2005 coastal county population
Cape Cod Population Increases
Total hurricane losses since 1900 AD
What would losses be if these storms stuck today?
Tropical cyclone strikes in New England 1938-1960 -76-73 -70 1960 (Donna) 43 1938 1954 (Carol) 43 1944 If these storms were to repeat over the next 22 years they would result in about 100 billion (2005 $) in damage. 38 billion would likely result from a storm like the 1938 41 Hurricane alone. 41 1955 (Dianne) 1954 (Edna) 39 Hurricane Bob resulted in about 2 billion in damage 39-76 -73-70
Worst case scenario south shore
Worst case scenario Cape Cod Bay
Conceptual Model of New England Salt Marsh Development after Redfield (1972) low marsh peat (Spartina alterniflora dominated) high marsh peat (Spartina patens dominated) sand or mud flat basement
Boston Vegetation Response to accelerated SLR Nag Pond 1 2 3 4 8 5 cordgrass marsh hay water 6 5 m Nag Pond transect Salt Marsh Upland Beach Water 200 meters Prudence Island, RI 7
Vegetation Response to accelerated SLR Boston Distance (m) 14 12 10 8 6 4 6 0 7 5 8 4 3 50 740 +30 100 150 2 2 1 0 1870s Depth (cm) 200 2450 +35 high marsh peat low marsh peat basal sand 250 Donnelly and Bertness, 2001 (PNAS, v. 98, p. 14218-14223) 1963 1954 1900
The Redfield model with a recent twist low marsh peat (Spartina alterniflora dominated) high marsh peat (Spartina patens dominated) sand or mud flat basement gravel and sand
Thank You! More information can be found at: http://www.whoi.edu/science/gg/coastal/index.html