By Karen E. Thuermer THE U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IS HEALTHY ACCORDING TO the key economic indicators. With the GDP growth rate expected to remain between 2 and 3 percent, unemployment hovering just below 4 percent, and inflation or deflation in check for now, there s a general feeling of optimism sweeping much of the nation. As of May, the U.S. economy had expanded for 107 months, making it the second-longest expansion on record. NOTE: Area Development s research desk compiled the statistics for this report. were ranked according to the methodology explained herein. Interactive report available at www.areadevelopment.com/2018 Reprinted with permission, Area Development Magazine, Q2 2018 Issue.
TOP 50 Metro Region Region 1 San Jose-Sunnyvale- Santa Clara CA Pacific 2 San Francisco-Redwood City- CA Pacific South San Francisco 3 Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley CA Pacific 4 Reno NV Mountain 5 Napa CA Pacific 6 Columbus IN Midwest 7 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA Pacific 8 Elkhart-Goshen IN Midwest 9 Carson City NV Mountain 10 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO Mountain 11 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett WA Pacific 12 Salt Lake City UT Mountain 13 Boulder CO Mountain 14 Santa Rosa CA Pacific 15 Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI Midwest 16 Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills MI Midwest 17 Bend-Redmond OR Pacific 18 New York-Jersey City- NY-NJ Mid- White Plains 19 Fort Collins CO Mountain 20 Wausau WI Midwest 21 Charleston-North Charleston SC South 22 Dallas-Plano-Irving TX Southwest 23 Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA Pacific 24 Cincinnati OH-KY-IN Midwest 25 San Diego-Carlsbad CA Pacific 26 Nashville-Davidson-- TN South Murfreesboro--Franklin 27 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell GA South 28 Hartford-West Hartford- CT New East Hartford 29 Chicago-Naperville- IL Midwest Arlington Heights 30 Urban Honolulu HI Pacific 31 Kokomo IN Midwest 32 Charlotte-Concord- NC-SC South Gastonia 33 Boston-Cambridge MA New 34 Norwich-New London CT New 35 St. George UT Mountain 36 Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine CA Pacific 37 Barnstable Town MA New 38 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson IN Midwest 39 Camden NJ Mid- 40 Jacksonville FL South 41 Portland-South Portland ME New 42 Kalamazoo-Portage MI Midwest 43 Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia MI Midwest 44 Vallejo-Fairfield CA Pacific 45 Sacramento--Roseville-- CA Pacific Arden-Arcade 46 Fort Wayne IN Midwest 47 Philadelphia PA Mid- 48 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford FL South 49 Worcester MA-CT New 50 Austin-Round Rock TX Southwest Tax cuts, low unemployment, and rising wages point to more spending power to fuel economic growth, says Dr. Christine Chmura, CEO and chief economist at Chmura Economics & Analytics. Increased investment by businesses in new plants and equipment resulting from corporate tax cuts and reductions in regulations has been supporting economic growth and should support future growth. If economic growth lasts 15 more months, it will hit record territory in July 2019, when it would surpass the longest expansion on record at 121 months.
METHODOLOGY Area Development ranked 394 MSAs across 21 economic and workforce indicators. These 21 indicators were pulled from seven (7) data sets (sub-categories) originating from three sources: the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census American Community Survey, and Emsi. Each MSA earned a ranking within each of the 21 indicators based on its statistical performance within that indicator. The MSA with the best performance in a certain indicator earned a ranking score of 1 and the MSA with the worst performance earned a ranking score of 394. To calculate Overall Ranking, we added the total ranking across all indicators for each MSA and then divided by the total number of indicators to reach an average ranking. The MSA with the lowest average earned the #1 overall ranking, while the MSA with the highest average ranked #394 overall. We also calculated overall ranking across four categories: Prime Workforce, Economic Strength, Five- Year Growth, and Year-Over- Year Growth. To calculate the overall ranking within these four categories, we produced an average ranking across only certain indicators. An indicator did not have to be exclusive to our category rankings. For instance, the Employment Growth Net 5-Year Change as Percentage of Population is used within both the Economic Strength and Five-Year Growth categories. We have also produced a set of lists, using our overall results and category results, grouping the MSAs by region and size. We ranked the Top 5-20 MSAs in each region (defined by Area Development Online taxonomy), and we also ranked the top MSAs across three size groups: Small (population < 160,000), Mid-Size (population 160,000 600,000), and Big (population > 600,000). We ranked the cities within each size group against our overall rankings and Prime Workforce, Economic Strength, Five- Year Growth, and Year-Over- Year Growth categories. For a full explanation of the methodology behind our report, go to www. areadevelopment. com/ 2018/ methodology. To help track growth trends, Area Development recently released its 8th annual Metro report that takes a multifaceted look at 394 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and ranks them based on Prime Workforce, Economic Strength, Year-Over-Year Growth, and Five-Year Economic Growth. The results come from crunching a wide variety of data and are culminated in its list of Metro. The analysis also uses the same data to determine the top large, medium-size, and small metros. As was the case last year, northern California especially the San Francisco Bay area and the Pacific and Mountain regions made a good showing in this year s report. In fact, 14 of the top 20 metros in the survey are in the Pacific or Mountain regions. The top three are San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, San Francisco-Redwood City- South San Francisco, and Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley. These TOP 20 Large Metros 1 San Jose-Sunnyvale- Santa Clara CA 1 2 San Francisco-Redwood City- South San Francisco CA 2 3 Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley CA 3 4 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA 7 5 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO 10 6 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett WA 11 7 Salt Lake City UT 12 8 Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI 15 9 Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills MI 16 10 New York-Jersey City- White Plains NY-NJ 18 11 Charleston-North Charleston SC 21 12 Dallas-Plano-Irving TX 22 13 Cincinnati OH-KY-IN 24 14 San Diego-Carlsbad CA 25 15 Nashville-Davidson-- Murfreesboro--Franklin TN 26 16 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell GA 27 17 Hartford-West Hartford- East Hartford CT 28 18 Chicago-Naperville- Arlington Heights IL 29 19 Urban Honolulu HI 30 20 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia NC-SC 32
TOP 20 Mid-Size Metros TOP 20 Small Metros 1 Reno NV 4 2 Elkhart-Goshen IN 8 3 Boulder CO 13 4 Santa Rosa CA 14 5 Fort Collins CO 19 6 Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA 23 7 Norwich-New London CT 34 8 Barnstable Town MA 37 9 Portland-South Portland ME 41 10 Kalamazoo-Portage MI 42 11 Vallejo-Fairfield CA 44 12 Fort Wayne IN 46 13 San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles- Arroyo Grande CA 57 14 Provo-Orem UT 58 15 Lansing-East Lansing MI 60 16 Manchester-Nashua NH 62 17 Salem OR 66 18 Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers AR-MO 68 19 Oshkosh-Neenah WI 71 20 Ann Arbor MI 72 1 Napa CA 5 2 Columbus IN 6 3 Carson City NV 9 4 Bend-Redmond OR 17 5 Wausau WI 20 6 Kokomo IN 31 7 St. George UT 35 8 Sheboygan WI 51 9 Kankakee IL 54 10 Niles-Benton Harbor MI 56 11 Fond du Lac WI 65 12 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox KY 69 13 Glens Falls NY 77 14 Albany GA 86 15 Winchester VA-WV 87 16 New Bern NC 97 17 Jackson MI 98 18 Idaho Falls ID 103 19 Sumter SC 107 20 Albany OR 108 locations benefit from clusters of high-tech and biotech companies and renowned institutions of higher education, including UCSF, Stanford, and UC Berkeley, that provide a steady stream of skilled workers and R&D. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, once the world s largest canning and dried-fruit packing center prior to World War II, has sustained high rankings largely because it is home to the world-renown Silicon Valley, one of the hottest addresses in the world. High technology and an educated workforce will always be key factors that differentiate the leading locations for firm expansion, comments Chmura. The most profitable firms rely on a creative and productive workforce. Technology underpins a firm s ability to be more productive, and education supports a worker s ability to perform at high levels. Showing a particularly upward swing is Oakland-Hayward- Berkeley, which rose from a 25th position in 2016 to 3rd in both 2017 and 2018 based on improved economic strength and workforce. The location benefits from less expensive and more available real estate compared to San Francisco and Silicon Valley locations. Other northern Pacific locations made overall strong showings. Most noteworthy, Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA received its highest overall ranking (7th) in the
TOP 30 Metros Economic Strength 1 Elkhart-Goshen IN 8 2 Napa CA 5 3 Carson City NV 9 4 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA 1 5 Norwich-New London CT 34 6 San Francisco-Redwood City- South San Francisco CA 2 7 Reno NV 4 8 Hartford-West Hartford- East Hartford CT 28 9 Worcester MA-CT 49 10 Kankakee IL 54 11 Boston-Cambridge MA 33 12 Kokomo IN 31 13 Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley CA 3 14 Fort Wayne IN 46 15 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA 7 16 Urban Honolulu HI 30 17 Sheboygan WI 51 18 Lake County-Kenosha County IL-WI 58 19 Santa Rosa CA 14 20 Wausau WI 20 21 Boulder CO 13 22 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO 10 23 Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI 15 23T Barnstable Town MA 37 25 Vallejo-Fairfield CA 44 26 Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills MI 16 27 Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA 23 28 Fort Collins CO 19 29 Green Bay WI 93 30 Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia MI 43 Overall, the software industry is 2.5 times more concentrated in Oregon than other states. It doesn t hurt that the commercial real estate market in Portland continues to be hot with tech companies, along with their supporting businesses, taking much of the space. Industrial space is also breathing new life into the market. Chmura adds: Many metro areas in the Pacific Northwest and Mountain regions were hit harder than other areas around the nation during the Great Recession. Home prices, for example, were down significantly. Economic growth in these regions lagged the nation in the first few years after the recession as they worked through the imbalances. Bucking Workforce Trends In recent years, there s been plenty of news about the skilled labor shortage. The analysis shows that more attractive tax structures support employment growth in the first few years after taxes are lowered. Other factors, such as quality of life and a strong public K-12 education system, are important as well, says Chmura. According to the report, a number of cities are bucking the labor shortage trend and rising in their overall ranking. Among those showing significant upswings are Philadelphia and Salt Lake City. Philly ranked an overall 47th in 2018 up from 141st in 2017. Salt Lake jumped to 12th this year from 32 in 2017. Both cities attribute their improved marks to increasingly attracting educated workers. It doesn t hurt that Philadelphia is home to University of Pennsylvania with its Wharton School of Business as well as Drexel University and Temple University. Stalwarts like Columbus, Ind., and San Jose, Calif., have consistently shown high rankings, although the two places could not be more different from one another. The point here is one does not have to be a tech haven or a large city to score well year after year. What keeps the small Midwest city of Columbus, Ind., among the top-10 MSAs year after year is its ability to attract an educated workforce the MSA ranks fourth among the top metros for Prime Workforce. eight years of the survey. Helping the area is its tech boom and desirable lifestyle. Here both hardware and software sectors are growing strongly. Also making Columbus attractive has been its ability to revitalize the city through architectural excellence,
a task that began in the mid-20th century when the Cummins Foundation made it a mecca of modern architecture. Economic development efforts, widespread beautification innovations, various tax incentives, and increased law enforcement have helped Columbus overcome downward economies. Besides Columbus, other small cities that show noteworthy marks for their Prime Workforce include Bend-Redmond, Ore., Auburn-Opelika, Ala., and St. George, Utah. Mid-size metros scoring high for their Prime Workforce include Olympia-Turnwater in Washington, Reno, Nev., and Gainesville, Fla. Economic Growth While some locations are economically sound and offer many attributes, those that show both year-over-year and longerterm growth receive higher marks in this analysis. In the past, there have been numerous booming growth cities in the South and Southwest e.g. Austin, Texas, and Nashville, Tenn. But in recent years, overall rankings for these cities have slipped. The Nashville MSA fell to 26th from the No. 7 spot in 2017, and Austin dropped from a 10th place ranking in 2015 to 46th in 2016, 47th in 2017, and 50th for 2018. Many locations fair well due to industry clusters that set up shop in regions around the country. For example, the South has over the years become a magnet for auto and advanced manufacturing, particularly along the Interstate 75 corridor. This location has been beneficial to Dalton, Ga., best known as being home to the carpet and floor covering industry. While ranked 196th overall as a Metro Location, Dalton made a particular strong No. 3 showing for Five-Year Economic Growth, thanks to its innovation in cutting-edge technology, applied science, global marketing, and services. These have led to new high-tech products and patents. Year-Over-Year Growth rankings indicate some surprises. Kankakee, Ill., which ranked 54th overall, ranked first in Year-Over-Year Growth. Kankakee County is regarded among the fastest-growing metros in Illinois and benefits from its geographic location 45 miles south of downtown TOP 30 Metros Prime Workforce 1 San Francisco-Redwood City- South San Francisco CA 2 2 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA 1 3 Nashville-Davidson- Murfreesboro--Franklin TN 26 4 Columbus IN 6 5 Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley CA 3 6 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett WA 11 7 Bend-Redmond OR 17 8 Salt Lake City UT 12 9 Dallas-Plano-Irving TX 22 10 Philadelphia PA 47 11 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford FL 48 12 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia NC-SC 32 13 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO 10 14 Olympia-Tumwater WA 79 15 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA 7 16 Reno NV 4 17 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton- FL 67 Delray Beach 18 New York-Jersey City- NY-NJ 18 White Plains 19 Gainesville FL 229 20 Auburn-Opelika AL 178 21 Columbus OH 63 22 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell GA 27 23 Austin-Round Rock TX 50 24 St. George UT 35 25 Kalamazoo-Portage MI 42 26 Boulder CO 13 27 Tallahassee FL 192 28 Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI 15 29 San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles- Arroyo Grande CA 57 30 Sacramento-Roseville- Arden-Arcade CA 45 Q2/2018 6
TOP 30 Metros Year-Over-Year Growth TOP 30 Metros Five-Year Economic Growth 1 Kankakee IL 54 2 Carson City NV 9 3 Reno NV 4 4 Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley CA 3 5 Pine Bluff AR 299 6 Norwich-New London CT 34 7 Elkhart-Goshen IN 8 8 Kokomo IN 31 9 Sheboygan WI 51 10 San Francisco-Redwood City- South San Francisco 2 CA 11 Boulder CO 13 12 Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA 23 13 Sumter SC 107 14 Merced CA 166 15 Mansfield OH 211 16 Glens Falls NY 77 17 San Jose-Sunnyvale- Santa Clara CA 1 18 Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills MI 16 19 Terre Haute IN 220 20 Charleston-North Charleston SC 21 21 Redding CA 94 22 Camden NJ 39 22T Decatur IL 150 24 Barnstable Town MA 37 25 Salt Lake City UT 12 26 Springfield MA 85 27 Lake County-Kenosha County IL-WI 58 28 Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia MI 43 29 Wheeling WV-OH 231 30 Evansville IN-KY 102 1 Napa CA 5 2 Elkhart-Goshen IN 8 3 Dalton GA 196 4 San Francisco-Redwood City- South San Francisco CA 2 5 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA 1 6 Reno NV 4 7 Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA 23 8 St. George UT 35 9 Columbus IN 6 10 Bend-Redmond OR 17 11 Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia MI 43 12 Gainesville GA 82 13 Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI 15 14 Vallejo-Fairfield CA 44 15 Wausau WI 20 16 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell GA 27 16T Fort Collins CO 19 18 Kankakee IL 54 19 Provo-Orem UT 58 20 Riverside-San Bernardino- Ontario CA 112 21 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO 10 22 Santa Rosa CA 14 23 North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton FL 114 24 Cincinnati OH-KY-IN 24 25 Sheboygan WI 51 26 Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine CA 36 27 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA 7 28 Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley CA 3 29 Fort Wayne IN 46 29T Battle Creek MI 132 Chicago along the I-57 corridor. In 2014 2016 the total capital investment in Kankakee County exceeded $1.2 billion. Its website emphasizes ready access to the interstate, rail, all utilities, fiber, and workforce in a diverse business community, including Fortune and Global 500 companies. Additionally, two Enterprise Zones provide property tax
Emsi is the industry leader in labor market data and expert analysis to professionals in economic development, workforce development, commercial real estate, higher education, and talent acquisition. Emsi provides regional workforce, economic, and location intelligence data to aid businesses and communities in site selection decisions, workforce advancement, regional comparisons, and retention and expansion efforts. Learn more at www.economicmodeling.com. abatement, sales tax exemptions, and other growth incentives. Needless to say, Creating a competitive position varies based on the type of firm that is expanding, Chmura says. Some manufacturing plants might need proximity to rail or a large water supply, while software providers need good Internet access. Metro size also did not determine whether or not a location showed economic strength or longer-range economic growth. Small metros like Elkhart-Goshen, Ind., and Napa, Calif., took the first two spots in these categories, with Elkhart- Goshen ranked No. 1 for Economic Strength and No. 2 for Five-Year Economic Growth, while Napa was No.1 for Five-Year Economic Growth and No. 2 for Economic Strength. When asked about Elkhart-Goshen s success, Mark A. Dobson, President/CEO of the Economic Development Corporation (EDC) of Elkhart County, told Area Development, At the height of the Great Recession, we never lost our optimism. This amazing renaissance was led by our entrepreneurial spirit. Corporate leadership combined with a workforce that has an amazing work ethic to drive our recovery. No matter what we faced, we remained true to vision. Carson City, Nev., also has experienced a remarkable trajectory. Once known for the Comstock Lode, today Carson City ranks third among the Top 20 Small Metros and ninth overall. In 2015, it ranked 308th overall; in 2016, 191st overall; and in 2017, 163rd overall. Part of the reason for its ascent is Year-Over-Year Growth. Robert Hooper, president and CEO of the Northern Nevada Development Authority, attributes the region s growth to Nevada s governor and state legislature putting in place the right formula for recovery and job creation during the Great Recession. This allowed Carson City to leverage its streamlined building process, attractive tax structure and lowcost fees, economical industrial real estate, and competitive utility rates for commercial operations to stabilize and grow its economy, he says. The city s geographic location, easy access to the Silver s multi-modal infrastructure, and close proximity to major U.S. markets and deep-sea ports also play a role in the growth of the area s advanced manufacturing, logistics, and construction industries. In essence, this is what is driving growth in many U.S. metros in today s economy. LEADING METRO SPONSORS NEVADA Stan Thomas, Exec. VP, Business Development Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada (EDAWN) 5190 Neil Road, Ste. 110 Reno, NV 89502 775-829-3731 SThomas@edawn.org www.edawn.org INDIANA Mark A. Dobson, IOM, AE President & CEO Economic Development Corporation of Elkhart County 300 NIBCO Parkway, Suite 201 Elkhart, IN 46516 574-293-5627 Cell: 574-536-9083 mark@elkhartcountybiz.com www.elkhartcountybiz.com Jason Hester, CEcD, Executive Director Great Columbus Economic Development Corporation 440 Fifth Street Columbus, IN 47201 812-378-7300 jhester@columbusin.org www.columbusin.org RENO, NEVADA Metro 2018 #1 Mountain Region #1 Mid-Size Metros #3 Year-Over-Year Growth #4 Overall Rank #6 Five-Year Economic Growth #7 Economic Strength #16 Prime Workforce Q2/2018 8