Market Report Raleigh-Durham Market Facts Market Overview 6.8% Total market vacancy flat year-over-year 209,683 SF absorbed year-to-date 767,581 SF under construction 3.4% Triangle unemployment in August 2018
Large blocks of newly vacant space present unique opportunities for better utilization of space and stronger rental rates at well-located centers. Vacancy 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% YE12 YE14 YE16 3Q18 Absorption vs. Completions 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2012 2014 2016 YTD18 Absorption Completions Under Construction 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2012 2014 2016 3Q18
3,000 Amazon plans to grow its cashier-less Amazon Go store count to 3,000 by year-end 2021. Consumer Sentiment (1996 = 100) 110 100 90 80 70 60 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 50 Advance Monthly Retail Sales (in millions) $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 $250,000
Asking Rental Rates ($/SF/Year/NNN) Raleigh-Durham Job Growth (August of each year) Retail Investment Sales (in millions) $20.00 40,000 8.0% $1,200 $18.00 $16.00 30,000 20,000 6.0% 4.0% $800 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 YE12 YE14 YE16 3Q18 10,000 0 2.0% 0.0% 2012 2014 2016 2018 YOY Job Growth % Unemployed $400 $0 2012 2014 2016 YTD18 Select Tenant Activity Tenant Property Type Submarket SF O2 Fitness Alexander Place New Lease US 70/Glenwood Ave. 30,000 Aldi Shoppes of Kildaire New Lease Cary 27,000 Aldi Triangle Plaza New Lease US 1/Capital Blvd. 24,500 Harbor Freight Tools Devonshire Place New Lease Cary 18,276 Durham Food Hall Liberty Warehouse Apartments New Lease Downtown Durham 15,000 Perry's Steakhouse and Grille Crabtree Terrace New Lease US 70/Glenwood Ave. 12,500 Duluth Trading Company Crossroads Plaza New Lease Cary 11,000 Defy Apex Apex Promenade Opening Southwest Wake 30,263 Sears Crabtree Valley Mall Closing US 70/Glenwood Ave. 168,000 Haverty's Triangle Town Center Closing US 1/Capital Blvd. 35,000 Select Third-Quarter Sale Transactions Property Submarket Buyer Total SF Sale Price Price/SF Ridgewood Shopping Center West Raleigh Regency Centers 95,300 $45.8 million $481 Greystone Village US 70/Glenwood Ave. Burroughs & Chapin 85,665 $15.3 million $179 Shoppes at Weston Corners Cary Crow Holdings 31,920 $11.2 million $351 Glenwood Square* Orange County Fairway Investments 51,900 $10.5 million $202 *Transaction handled by Avison Young Select Construction Projects Property Submarket Major Tenant(s) Completion Total SF % Preleased/Owned Midtown East Wake Forest/Falls of Neuse Rd. Wegmans 3Q19 173,936 72% Twin Lakes Center Cary Wegmans 1Q20 152,860 94% Amberly Place Cary Publix 4Q18 77,000 77% Leesville Market Place US 70/Glenwood Ave. Publix 4Q18 75,100 96% Publix at Peace Downtown Raleigh Publix 1Q20 50,882 90% South Green Orange County Montessori Academy 1Q19 45,000 36% One City Center Central Durham N/A 4Q18 22,828 58%
Market By The Numbers NET ABSORPTION By Submarket Total SF Vacant SF Vacant % 3Q18 Year To Date SF Underway West Raleigh 953,296 33,763 3.5% 1,400 (15,363) - US 70/Glenwood Avenue 4,919,799 279,060 5.7% 39,288 (1,982) 75,100 Six Forks Road 2,061,146 73,076 3.5% 29,346 73,541 - Wake Forest/Falls of Neuse Road 2,251,987 109,602 4.9% 20,643 46,305 173,936 US 1/Capital Boulevard 6,273,345 441,024 7.0% (119,317) (68,978) 18,300 Downtown Raleigh 706,451 76,845 10.9% (840) 48,117 76,796 Cameron Village 627,017 5,698 0.9% - 37,198 - Eastern Wake 4,050,830 250,764 6.2% 7,175 9,437 - Southern Wake 4,086,438 144,594 3.5% 13,321 (8,439) - Cary 7,508,435 637,141 8.5% 83,983 130,703 229,860 RTP/I-40 1,342,541 411,754 30.7% 36,477 (110,779) 16,000 Central Durham 622,416 46,341 7.4% 3,846 23,494 88,490 North Durham 3,589,633 199,693 5.6% (27,865) (33,818) - South Durham 5,138,386 243,530 4.7% 14,279 68,287 - Orange County 2,611,859 230,187 8.8% 19,007 11,960 59,494 Totals 46,743,579 3,183,072 6.8% 120,743 209,683 737,976 Raleigh-Durham CSA Demographics 2018 Population 1,936,917 Average HH Income $90,262 Average HH Disposable Income $67,820 Median Age 36.4 Average Home Value $289,961 Job Growth (Year-Over-Year, August) 28,200 E. & O.E.: The information contained herein was obtained from sources which we deem reliable and, while thought to be correct, is not guaranteed by Avison Young. Sources include CoStar, Real Capital Analytics, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI, the University of Michigan, Triangle Business Journal, Bisnow, the News & Observer and Chain Store Age.
Avison Young North Carolina Retail Team Banks Hunter, CCIM Principal 919.420.1555 banks.hunter@ David Stowe Senior Vice President 919.420.1570 david.stowe@ Lin Gaudette, CCIM Vice President 919.719.8186 lin.gaudette@ Avison Young North American Offices Tommy Honey Vice President 919.420.1567 tommy.honey@ SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND SAN MATEO SAN JOSE/SILICON VALLEY EDMONTON CALGARY LOS ANGELES (4) ORANGE COUNTY INLAND EMPIRE SAN DIEGO VANCOUVER SACRAMENTO DENVER RENO LETHBRIDGE REGINA WINNIPEG MINNEAPOLIS CHICAGO (2) ST. LOUIS PITTSBURGH CLEVELAND DETROIT COLUMBUS LAS VEGAS INDIANAPOLIS PHOENIX NASHVILLE DALLAS MEMPHIS HOUSTON KNOXVILLE AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO TAMPA ORLANDO MEXICO CITY TORONTO (2) TORONTO NORTH TORONTO WEST WATERLOO REGION OTTAWA MONTREAL JACKSONVILLE WEST PALM BEACH BOCA RATON FORT LAUDERDALE MIAMI MONCTON HALIFAX BOSTON HARTFORD FAIRFIELD/WESTCHESTER LONG ISLAND NEW YORK CITY (2) NEW JERSEY(2) SUBURBAN MARYLAND WASHINGTON, DC TYSONS RALEIGH-DURHAM (2) PHILADELPHIA CHARLOTTE GREENVILLE CHARLESTON ATLANTA T Tina Long Vice President 440 South Church St., Suite 530 Charlotte, NC 28202 704.557.0876 tina.long@ Jon Bradley Senior Associate 919.420.1567 jon.bradley@ 2018 Avison Young - North Carolina. All rights reserved. E. & O.E.: The information contained herein was obtained from sources which we deem reliable and, while thought to be correct, is not guaranteed by Avison Young.